How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Penguins 3 Capitals 5 +4.3
+0.4
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Thrashers 4 Capitals 0 -5.5
-0.6
Capitals 2 Thrashers 4 -5.5
-0.6
Hurricanes 5 Capitals 3 -5.5
-0.6
Capitals 0 Penguins 1 -5.5
-0.5
Capitals 3 Rangers 5 -5.4
-0.5
Capitals 3 Senators 4 -5.4
-0.6
Capitals 2 Rangers 4 -5.3
-0.5
Flyers 3 Capitals 0 -5.3
-0.5
Capitals 4 Islanders 5 -5.2
-0.6
Islanders 5 Capitals 3 -5.2
-0.5
Capitals 0 Maple Leafs 4 -5.2
-0.5
Kings 3 Capitals 2 -5.0
-0.5
Wild 3 Capitals 2 -5.0
-0.5
Canadiens 5 Capitals 4 -4.8
-0.5
Panthers 1 Capitals 2 +4.4
+0.5
Blues 2 Capitals 3 (so)+4.4
+0.4
Capitals 2 Stars 1 (so)+4.3
+0.5
Capitals 2 Blue Jackets 1 (ot)+4.3
+0.4
Capitals 4 Panthers 1 +4.2
+0.5
Sabres 2 Capitals 3 +4.2
+0.4
Capitals 2 Senators 1 +4.1
+0.4
Capitals 6 Devils 3 +4.1
+0.4
Maple Leafs 5 Capitals 8 +4.1
+0.4
Capitals 5 Lightning 3 +4.0
+0.4
Capitals 3 Bruins 2 +4.0
+0.4
Devils 1 Capitals 5 +4.0
+0.4
Blue Jackets 4 Capitals 5 +3.8
+0.4
Flames 2 Capitals 3 +3.7
+0.4
Blackhawks 2 Capitals 5 +3.7
+0.4
Avalanche 3 Capitals 4 +3.7
+0.4
Capitals 5 Red Wings 1 +3.6
+0.4
Capitals 2 Blackhawks 1 (ot)+3.5
+0.4
Capitals 2 Canucks 1 +3.4
+0.4
Sharks 0 Capitals 1 +3.4
+0.4
Capitals 5 Panthers 4 (so)+3.1
+0.3
Stars 1 Capitals 2 (so)+2.4
*+0.2
Capitals 2 Wild 3 (so)*-2.1
*-0.2
Blues 2 Sabres 3 (ot)-1.6
Capitals 4 Coyotes 5 (ot)*-1.1
*-0.1
Devils 3 Ducks 4 +0.8
Lightning 6 Coyotes 3 -0.8
-0.1
Canucks 0 Bruins 4 -0.8
Stars 4 Flyers 3 (ot)*-0.8
Sharks 2 Lightning 1 (so)*+0.8
*+0.0
Ducks 5 Canadiens 0 +0.7
Islanders 4 Capitals 3 (ot)*-0.7
-0.1
Devils 1 Wild 2 *+0.7
Kings 3 Ducks 2 (so)*-0.6
Senators 3 Blues 2 *-0.6
Sabres 3 Blue Jackets 2 *-0.5
Penguins 4 Sharks 0 *-0.4
Hurricanes 3 Sabres 2 *+0.4
Ducks 5 Penguins 7 *-0.4
Canucks 1 Flyers 5 *-0.4
Rangers 5 Kings 4 (ot)*+0.3
Canucks 1 Canadiens 6 *-0.3
Flames 0 Predators 4 *-0.3
Coyotes 5 Sabres 4 *+0.3
Flyers 4 Rangers 2 *+0.2
Bruins 5 Canucks 4 *-0.2
Flyers 5 Capitals 4 (ot)*-0.2
*-0.1
Panthers 2 Blue Jackets 1 *-0.2
Red Wings 5 Thrashers 0 +0.1
Panthers 4 Predators 6 +0.1
Stars 2 Thrashers 1 +0.1
Thrashers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)*-0.1
Hurricanes 1 Avalanche 3 +0.1
Sharks 3 Hurricanes 4 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Penguins vs Capitals-5.4*-0.3*-0.9+4.3+3.5+4.0
-0.5*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Capitals vs Lightning+4.3+3.0+4.2*-0.8*-1.0-5.3
+0.4+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.5
Senators vs Capitals-5.3*-0.9*-0.6+3.8+3.3+4.2
-0.5*-0.1*-0.1+0.4+0.3+0.4
Lightning vs Capitals-5.3*-0.6*-0.7+3.2+3.1+4.2
-0.5*-0.0*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Lightning vs Capitals-5.4*-1.0*+0.2+3.9+3.6+4.1
-0.5*-0.1*+0.0+0.3+0.4+0.4
Capitals vs Hurricanes+4.1+3.3+4.2*-1.3*-0.9-5.2
+0.4+0.3+0.4*-0.1-0.1-0.5
Hurricanes vs Capitals-5.0-1.3*-0.6+4.4+3.4+4.0
-0.5-0.2*-0.1+0.4+0.4+0.4
Capitals vs Penguins+3.6+3.3+4.3*-0.1*-0.3-5.0
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.5
Thrashers vs Capitals-5.2*-0.8*-1.1+3.1+3.5+4.1
-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Senators vs Capitals-5.2*-1.0*-0.8+3.5+3.2+4.1
-0.5*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.4
Capitals vs Flyers+3.9+3.0+3.7*-0.6*-0.7-5.0
+0.4+0.3+0.4*-0.1*-0.1-0.5
Capitals vs Flyers+4.0+3.4+3.1*-0.7-1.6-4.9
+0.4+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Capitals vs Thrashers+3.7+3.4+3.7*-0.4*-1.0-4.9
+0.4+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.5
Bruins vs Capitals-4.7*-0.6*-0.0+3.9+3.1+3.5
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Capitals vs Hurricanes+3.8+3.2+3.8-2.6*-0.5-4.8
+0.4+0.3+0.3-0.2-0.1-0.5
Devils vs Capitals-5.0*-0.4*+0.4+3.4+3.6+3.5
-0.4-0.1*-0.0+0.4+0.3+0.3
Capitals vs Predators+3.4+3.6+3.6*-0.3*-0.0-4.9
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0-0.0-0.4
Ducks vs Capitals-4.6*-0.4*-0.3+3.8+3.2+3.3
-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Sabres vs Capitals-4.8*-0.7*-0.6+2.8+3.2+3.7
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Coyotes vs Capitals-4.8*-0.7*+0.3+3.3+3.0+3.6
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Capitals vs Kings+3.1+3.7+3.8*+0.9*-0.8-4.6
+0.3+0.4+0.3-0.0-0.1-0.4
Bruins vs Capitals-4.8*-0.0*-0.5+2.9+3.2+3.5
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Capitals vs Sabres+3.2+3.4+4.0*-1.4*-0.6-4.4
+0.3+0.3+0.4*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Capitals vs Maple Leafs+3.3+3.3+3.8*-0.2-1.0-4.5
+0.3+0.3+0.4*-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Rangers vs Capitals-4.7-1.1*+0.2+3.0+3.5+3.5
-0.5-0.1-0.0+0.3+0.4+0.3
Maple Leafs vs Capitals-4.6*-0.1*+0.0+3.5+3.6+3.1
-0.4-0.1*+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Red Wings vs Capitals-4.6*-0.6*-0.6+2.6+3.2+3.6
-0.4*-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Capitals vs Islanders+3.3+3.0+3.7*-0.1*-0.5-4.5
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Capitals vs Sharks+3.5+3.4+3.4*-0.3*-0.8-4.7
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Canadiens vs Capitals-4.7*-0.5*+0.4+3.4+3.1+3.4
-0.4*-0.0*+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Capitals vs Canadiens+3.3+3.1+3.6*-0.2*-0.4-4.5
+0.3+0.3+0.4-0.0-0.0-0.4
Capitals vs Sabres+3.3+3.1+3.6*-0.8*-0.6-4.5
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Canucks vs Capitals-4.2*-1.0*+0.3+3.9+3.0+3.0
-0.4-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Capitals vs Bruins+3.5+3.1+2.6*-0.5*-0.5-4.5
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.0-0.4
Oilers vs Capitals-4.5*-0.5*-0.8+2.5+3.0+3.5
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1*+0.2+0.3+0.3
Capitals vs Avalanche+3.4+2.8+2.9*-0.1*-0.1-4.6
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Capitals vs Flames+3.4+2.9+3.2*+0.3*-0.6-4.5
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.0-0.4
Capitals vs Blues+3.5+3.1+3.3-1.9*-0.4-4.4
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Panthers vs Capitals-4.5*-0.3*-0.1+3.4+3.1+3.2
-0.4-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Capitals vs Canadiens+3.3+3.3+2.7*-0.6*-0.9-4.4
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Capitals vs Devils+2.9+3.6+3.2*+0.1*-0.7-4.2
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Capitals vs Oilers+3.3+3.1+3.2*-0.4*-0.5-4.4
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Rangers vs Capitals-4.4*-0.4*-0.1+2.2+2.9+3.3
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Capitals vs Ducks+3.1+3.3+2.7*-1.3*-0.4-4.2
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Predators vs Capitals-4.4*-0.1*+0.4+3.1+2.8+3.1
-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Capitals finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
125-140In10014*
124345-6In80205*
123357-3In10011*
122336-6In906331*
121348-3In772331*
120338-4In653562*
119328-5In70273101*
118329-4In65323159*
117319-5In51436277*
116309-6In4248100404*
1153010-5In3948121610*
1142910-6In2650221917*
1132810-7In16522921,209*
1122811-6In124736401,645*
1112711-7In742445102,118*
1102712-6In435518302,730*
1092612-7In2266084103,377*
1082613-6In1186496204,004*
1072513-7In012649114004,598*
1062514-6In07619147105,225*
1052414-7100.0%456717134005,776*
1042415-699.90250516188106,127*
1032315-799.714131523144006,448*
1022316-699.003411124208106,460*
1012216-797.102617222714306,448*
1002217-693.719041731226006,311*
992117-787.313021232291115,718*
982118-678.69017253718305,310*
972018-765.96004193727704,748*
962019-649.330211333713104,088*
951919-736.62007274120203,430*
941920-624.5103204130502,823*
931820-714.70113383710102,288*
921821-67.7007324316201,856*
911721-73.8004244523301,390*
901722-61.401164330901,021*
891622-70.30103937121679*
881623-60.6153143182515*
871523-7Out32540266387*
861423-8Out216363880232*
851424-7Out113344111145*
841425-6Out61946282107*
831325-7Out3133938769*
821326-6Out3154035840*
811125-9Out94541522*
801227-6Out1040401010*
791127-7Out2563138*
781027-8Out67333*
771028-7Out2525504*
761231-2Out1001
50045-0Out1008
Total:81.2%2730369121210621000100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1100.0*Lottery seed
Penguins 3 Capitals 5 -0.9
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Capitals 2 Thrashers 4 +1.2
Thrashers 4 Capitals 0 +1.2
Hurricanes 5 Capitals 3 +1.2
Capitals 3 Senators 4 +1.2
Flyers 3 Capitals 0 +1.1
Capitals 4 Islanders 5 +1.1
Wild 3 Capitals 2 +1.1
Capitals 3 Rangers 5 +1.1
Capitals 0 Penguins 1 +1.1
Capitals 0 Maple Leafs 4 +1.1
Islanders 5 Capitals 3 +1.1
Kings 3 Capitals 2 +1.1
Capitals 2 Rangers 4 +1.1
Canadiens 5 Capitals 4 +1.0
Panthers 1 Capitals 2 -1.0
Capitals 2 Stars 1 (so)-0.9
Capitals 4 Panthers 1 -0.9
Blues 2 Capitals 3 (so)-0.9
Sabres 2 Capitals 3 -0.9
Capitals 6 Devils 3 -0.9
Capitals 5 Lightning 3 -0.9
Devils 1 Capitals 5 -0.9
Capitals 2 Blue Jackets 1 (ot)-0.8
Maple Leafs 5 Capitals 8 -0.8
Capitals 2 Senators 1 -0.8
Flames 2 Capitals 3 -0.8
Blue Jackets 4 Capitals 5 -0.8
Capitals 3 Bruins 2 -0.8
Capitals 5 Red Wings 1 -0.8
Avalanche 3 Capitals 4 -0.8
Blackhawks 2 Capitals 5 -0.8
Capitals 2 Canucks 1 -0.8
Sharks 0 Capitals 1 -0.8
Capitals 2 Blackhawks 1 (ot)-0.8
Capitals 5 Panthers 4 (so)*-0.7
Stars 1 Capitals 2 (so)*-0.5
Capitals 2 Wild 3 (so)+0.4
Blues 2 Bruins 3 (so)*-0.3
Hurricanes 5 Ducks 4 (so)*+0.3
Devils 4 Maple Leafs 3 (so)*+0.2
Lightning 3 Flames 4 (so)*+0.2
Capitals 4 Coyotes 5 (ot)*+0.2
Blues 2 Sabres 3 (ot)*+0.2
Islanders 4 Capitals 3 (ot)*+0.1
Lightning 0 Flyers 4 -0.1
Flyers 5 Capitals 4 (ot)*+0.1
Sabres 3 Blue Jackets 2 *+0.1
Thrashers 7 Senators 2 +0.1
Stars 2 Wild 4 *+0.1
Sharks 2 Lightning 1 (so)*-0.1
Penguins 4 Sharks 0 *+0.1
Canucks 1 Canadiens 6 +0.0
Bruins 2 Blackhawks 1 *+0.0
Thrashers 3 Sabres 2 (ot)+0.0
Hurricanes 4 Maple Leafs 1 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Capitals vs Hurricanes-0.9-0.7-0.8*+0.3+0.3+1.1
Thrashers vs Capitals+1.1+0.2+0.2-0.7-0.7-0.9
Hurricanes vs Capitals+1.1+0.4*+0.2-0.9-0.7-0.9
Capitals vs Hurricanes-0.9-0.7-0.7+0.3+0.2+1.0
Capitals vs Thrashers-0.8-0.7-0.7*+0.2+0.2+1.0
Senators vs Capitals+1.0*+0.2*+0.2-0.9-0.7-0.7
Lightning vs Capitals+1.0*+0.1*+0.0-0.7-0.8-0.7
Capitals vs Flyers-0.8-0.7-0.8*+0.1+0.2+1.0
Capitals vs Lightning-0.8-0.6-0.7+0.2*+0.1+1.0
Rangers vs Capitals+1.0+0.2+0.1-0.7-0.8-0.7
Lightning vs Capitals+1.0*+0.0+0.1-0.7-0.7-0.7
Penguins vs Capitals+1.0*+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.7-0.7
Capitals vs Sabres-0.7-0.7-0.8+0.2*+0.2+0.9
Senators vs Capitals+1.0*+0.2*+0.1-0.7-0.6-0.7
Capitals vs Maple Leafs-0.7-0.7-0.8+0.1*+0.2+0.9
Capitals vs Canadiens-0.7-0.6-0.8+0.1+0.1+0.9
Capitals vs Predators-0.7-0.6-0.7*+0.0*+0.1+1.0
Devils vs Capitals+0.9+0.1*+0.0-0.8-0.6-0.7
Capitals vs Penguins-0.7-0.7-0.7+0.3*+0.1+1.0
Capitals vs Flyers-0.8-0.7-0.6*+0.3*+0.3+0.9
Coyotes vs Capitals+1.0+0.1*+0.1-0.7-0.7-0.7
Rangers vs Capitals+0.9+0.1*+0.2-0.6-0.6-0.7
Capitals vs Avalanche-0.7-0.6-0.7*+0.1*+0.1+0.9
Sabres vs Capitals+0.9*+0.1+0.2-0.6-0.7-0.7
Bruins vs Capitals+0.9+0.1*+0.1-0.7-0.7-0.7
Capitals vs Kings-0.6-0.7-0.7+0.0*+0.1+0.9
Capitals vs Canadiens-0.7-0.7-0.7*+0.1+0.2+0.9
Panthers vs Capitals+0.9+0.1+0.0-0.7-0.7-0.6
Capitals vs Blues-0.7-0.6-0.7+0.2+0.1+0.9
Red Wings vs Capitals+0.9+0.1*+0.2-0.5-0.7-0.7
Ducks vs Capitals+0.9*+0.1*-0.0-0.7-0.6-0.7
Oilers vs Capitals+0.9+0.2*+0.3-0.5-0.7-0.7
Bruins vs Capitals+0.9*+0.1*+0.0-0.6-0.6-0.7
Capitals vs Flames-0.7-0.7-0.7*+0.1+0.1+0.9
Capitals vs Sharks-0.7-0.7-0.6*+0.2*+0.2+0.9
Capitals vs Bruins-0.7-0.7-0.6*+0.1+0.1+0.9
Canadiens vs Capitals+0.9*+0.1*-0.0-0.6-0.6-0.7
Capitals vs Sabres-0.7-0.6-0.6*+0.3*+0.1+0.9
Canucks vs Capitals+0.9+0.2*+0.1-0.6-0.7-0.6
Maple Leafs vs Capitals+0.9+0.1*-0.0-0.7-0.7-0.6
Capitals vs Ducks-0.7-0.7-0.6*+0.2*+0.1+0.9
Capitals vs Oilers-0.7-0.6-0.6*+0.0*+0.2+0.9
Capitals vs Devils-0.6-0.7-0.6*+0.0*+0.2+0.8
Predators vs Capitals+0.9*+0.1*+0.0-0.6-0.6-0.7
Capitals vs Islanders-0.6-0.6-0.6*+0.1*+0.1+0.9

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
125-140100
124345-68020
123357-3100
122336-69063
121348-374323
120338-461335
119328-5637273
118329-4578323
117319-54011436
116309-63111461100
1153010-52316453121
1142910-6131346422010
1132810-761046629020
1122811-6483710360400
1112711-71630124315110
1102712-603211448352300
1092612-7021214555524010
1082613-601612559546120
1072513-7029511336924000
1062514-60164219361047010
1052414-7033124161081114000
1042415-6002232704791538010
1032315-701152702411157131400
1022316-609250121013121738010
1012216-7052111781520713130
1002217-62170043141713203610
992117-71120211113192271120
982118-6090107620221516410
972018-706004217162121103000
962019-630201082524177200
951919-7020007324182316510
941920-610311911232214410
931820-701013617262111310
921821-6000729212919930
911721-70041415262616710
901722-60101716292614510
891622-7003112327231030
881623-610061426311642
871523-70242029261441
861423-841126262571
851424-74192831172
841425-61621273015
831325-76102542143
821326-6332545233
811125-9324523
801227-620204020
791127-725253813
781027-8333333
771028-7502525
761231-2100
50045-0100
Total:11431713123455657554322110000000