How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Blackhawks 3 Ducks 1 -5.5
-0.6
Ducks 3 Sharks 4 -5.4
-0.5
Ducks 3 Blues 5 -5.4
-0.5
Ducks 0 Blackhawks 3 -5.2
-0.5
Canadiens 8 Ducks 6 -5.2
-0.5
Thrashers 3 Ducks 2 -5.1
-0.5
Sabres 7 Ducks 0 -5.0
-0.5
Ducks 2 Blue Jackets 3 -5.0
-0.5
Ducks 5 Penguins 7 -5.0
-0.5
Oilers 1 Ducks 6 +4.8
+0.5
Panthers 4 Ducks 1 -4.7
-0.5
Ducks 3 Flames 0 +4.5
+0.5
Coyotes 5 Ducks 6 (so)+4.4
+0.4
Flames 2 Ducks 5 +4.4
+0.4
Wild 4 Ducks 5 +4.3
+0.4
Ducks 4 Panthers 1 +4.3
+0.4
Predators 2 Ducks 3 +4.2
+0.4
Ducks 2 Predators 0 +4.2
+0.4
Canucks 1 Ducks 4 +4.2
+0.4
Kings 1 Ducks 5 +4.2
+0.5
Ducks 4 Rangers 3 (ot)+4.2
+0.4
Ducks 5 Senators 4 +4.2
+0.4
Ducks 7 Blue Jackets 4 +4.2
+0.4
Ducks 3 Avalanche 1 +4.1
+0.4
Ducks 4 Avalanche 1 +4.1
+0.4
Ducks 5 Coyotes 2 +4.1
+0.4
Ducks 5 Wild 3 +4.0
+0.4
Ducks 4 Coyotes 3 +4.0
+0.4
Ducks 3 Flyers 1 +3.9
+0.4
Ducks 6 Canucks 2 +3.8
+0.4
Blackhawks 2 Ducks 5 +3.8
+0.4
Ducks 2 Kings 0 +3.7
+0.4
Devils 3 Ducks 4 +3.7
+0.4
Ducks 5 Canadiens 0 +3.6
+0.4
Flames 2 Ducks 3 (so)+3.1
+0.3
Kings 3 Ducks 2 (so)*-1.2
*-0.1
Blues 2 Sabres 3 (ot)*+1.2
Sharks 4 Bruins 3 -1.1
-0.1
Blue Jackets 3 Rangers 5 +1.1
Senators 6 Flames 4 +0.9
Oilers 2 Canadiens 4 +0.8
Thrashers 6 Kings 4 +0.8
Stars 2 Rangers 1 (so)*-0.8
Maple Leafs 0 Devils 1 -0.8
Flyers 2 Ducks 1 (ot)*-0.7
-0.1
Sharks 1 Panthers 2 *+0.6
Hurricanes 5 Ducks 4 (so)*+0.5
*-0.0
Avalanche 5 Ducks 4 (ot)*-0.5
-0.0
Flames 2 Capitals 3 *+0.4
Wild 7 Blue Jackets 3 *+0.4
Sabres 7 Predators 4 *+0.3
Canucks 2 Stars 5 *+0.3
Rangers 5 Kings 4 (ot)*+0.2
Islanders 1 Sabres 4 *-0.2
Blue Jackets 3 Ducks 2 (ot)*-0.2
-0.0
Islanders 4 Red Wings 5 *+0.2
Stars 2 Thrashers 1 -0.0
Islanders 4 Ducks 3 (ot)*+0.1
Blue Jackets 5 Islanders 4 (so)-0.2
Devils 3 Sharks 5 -0.1
Stars 2 Canadiens 3 +0.0
Lightning 2 Stars 3 *-0.0
Coyotes 2 Rangers 1 *-0.0
Avalanche 2 Kings 6 +0.0
Oilers 1 Sharks 5 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Ducks vs Oilers+1.1+1.0+1.6*+0.2*-0.3-1.6
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Red Wings vs Ducks-1.6*-0.3*+0.1+1.4+1.1+1.2
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Blue Jackets vs Ducks-1.7*-0.3*+0.3+1.3+1.2+1.2
-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Ducks vs Bruins+1.0+0.9+1.5*-0.1*+0.0-1.4
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Ducks vs Red Wings+1.2+0.8+0.8*+0.4*+0.1-1.7
+0.3+0.3+0.2*+0.0-0.0-0.4
Red Wings vs Ducks-1.6*-0.2*-0.0*+0.7+1.3+1.2
-0.4-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
Ducks vs Sharks+1.3+0.8+1.2*+0.0*-0.2-1.6
+0.3+0.3+0.2-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Ducks vs Red Wings+1.0+1.3+1.0*+0.1*-0.3-1.5
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Ducks vs Capitals+0.9+1.3+1.1*-0.4*+0.1-1.5
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Stars vs Ducks-1.6*+0.0*-0.1*+0.8+1.0+1.2
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.2+0.4
Ducks vs Wild+1.0+1.3+1.0*+0.0*-0.1-1.5
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Sharks vs Ducks-1.6*-0.1*-0.4+1.1+1.2+1.2
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Ducks vs Blackhawks+1.2+1.0+1.1*-0.6*-0.0-1.6
+0.3+0.2+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Bruins vs Ducks-1.4*+0.1*+0.1+1.4+1.1+0.8
-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.2
Maple Leafs vs Ducks-1.5*+0.3*-0.3+1.2+1.0+1.0
-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Sharks vs Ducks-1.5*-0.3*-0.6+1.0+1.2+1.2
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Wild vs Ducks-1.6*+0.2*-0.2+1.1+0.8+1.1
-0.4-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.2+0.3
Ducks vs Islanders+1.0+1.1*+0.6*+0.3*+0.3-1.5
+0.3+0.2+0.3*-0.0-0.0-0.4
Ducks vs Canucks+1.0+1.1+1.1*+0.2*-0.1-1.5
+0.3+0.3+0.3*+0.0-0.0-0.4
Rangers vs Ducks-1.5*+0.0*-0.3*+0.7+1.1+1.1
-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Blues vs Ducks-1.5*+0.1*-0.3*+0.7+1.1+1.0
-0.4-0.0-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Oilers vs Ducks-1.5*-0.1*-0.0+1.1+0.9+1.1
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.2+0.3
Ducks vs Stars+1.1+1.1+1.1*-0.0*-0.1-1.5
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.4
Ducks vs Devils+1.1+0.9*+0.8*+0.2*+0.0-1.5
+0.3+0.2+0.2*+0.0-0.1-0.4
Blues vs Ducks-1.4*-0.1*-0.1*+0.6+1.2+1.0
-0.4-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Ducks vs Oilers+1.1+0.9+1.0*-0.5*+0.1-1.5
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.4
Ducks vs Predators+1.0+0.7+1.0*-0.0*+0.1-1.4
+0.3+0.2+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Stars vs Ducks-1.4*+0.0*-0.7*+0.8+0.9+1.1
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Ducks vs Blues+1.0+1.1+0.9*-0.6*+0.2-1.4
+0.3+0.2+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Predators vs Ducks-1.4*-0.2*-0.0+0.9+1.0+1.0
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Ducks vs Sabres+1.0+0.9+0.9*+0.0*-0.1-1.4
+0.3+0.2+0.3*-0.0*-0.0-0.4
Ducks vs Kings+1.0+0.9+0.9*+0.0*-0.1-1.4
+0.4+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.4
Ducks vs Maple Leafs+1.0+1.0*+0.8*+0.1*-0.1-1.4
+0.3+0.3+0.2*+0.0*-0.0-0.4
Coyotes vs Ducks-1.4*+0.1*-0.5*+0.6+1.0+1.0
-0.4*-0.0-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Ducks vs Stars+1.0+1.0*+0.6*-0.2*-0.1-1.4
+0.3+0.3+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.4
Ducks vs Lightning+1.0+0.9+0.9*+0.2*-0.2-1.3
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ducks finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
126-145In100111*
125328-4In99189*
124318-5In100136*
123308-6In1000243*
122309-5In9911363*
121299-6In9721547*
1202910-5In9532841*
1192810-6In95231,116*
1182811-5In92451,576*
1172711-6In8670702,098*
1162712-5In82100802,603*
1152612-6In731401303,203*
1142512-7In661611703,827*
1132513-6In542112214,452*
1122413-7In4423228205,199*
1112414-6In3225334502,631*
2313-8In322633453,079*
1102314-7In2325440806,142*
1092315-6In142464213103,856*
2416-4In16247411212,611*
1082215-7In92074318203,988*
2114-9In92084219202,605*
1072216-6In41694125504,050*
2317-4In41584127502,721*
1062116-7In210936349106,334*
1052117-6In157293917205,827*
1042017-7In036213924615,544*
1032018-699.9%01413373211104,797*
1021918-799.60137293620404,190*
1011919-698.80231936299103,578*
1001819-795.8011113233174002,945*
991820-690.51052237258102,391*
981720-781.000213313415401,779*
971721-665.00162435259101,393*
961621-748.121532341530907*
951622-629.71721382570708*
941522-718.2131536321130521*
931523-67.71728421750350*
921423-77.371534271520247*
911424-61.821124402021163*
901425-51.213103740886*
891224-8Out317253914169*
881326-52.635263721838*
871226-6Out2418411817*
861227-5Out132513508*
851026-8Out144329147*
841128-5Out1001
831129-4Out50502*
78-82Out1003*
57044-0Out1008
Total:96.4%23124231610632100000100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Blackhawks 3 Ducks 1 +1.1
Ducks 3 Sharks 4 +1.1
Ducks 0 Blackhawks 3 +1.1
Sabres 7 Ducks 0 +1.1
Ducks 5 Penguins 7 +1.1
Ducks 3 Blues 5 +1.1
Canadiens 8 Ducks 6 +1.1
Ducks 2 Blue Jackets 3 +1.1
Thrashers 3 Ducks 2 +1.1
Panthers 4 Ducks 1 +1.0
Oilers 1 Ducks 6 -0.9
Ducks 3 Flames 0 -0.9
Ducks 5 Senators 4 -0.9
Kings 1 Ducks 5 -0.9
Ducks 4 Panthers 1 -0.9
Ducks 4 Coyotes 3 -0.9
Wild 4 Ducks 5 -0.9
Ducks 5 Coyotes 2 -0.9
Flames 2 Ducks 5 -0.9
Coyotes 5 Ducks 6 (so)-0.9
Canucks 1 Ducks 4 -0.9
Ducks 3 Avalanche 1 -0.9
Ducks 4 Rangers 3 (ot)-0.9
Predators 2 Ducks 3 -0.8
Ducks 5 Wild 3 -0.8
Ducks 7 Blue Jackets 4 -0.8
Ducks 2 Predators 0 -0.8
Ducks 4 Avalanche 1 -0.8
Ducks 5 Canadiens 0 -0.8
Devils 3 Ducks 4 -0.8
Ducks 3 Flyers 1 -0.8
Blackhawks 2 Ducks 5 -0.8
Ducks 2 Kings 0 -0.8
Ducks 6 Canucks 2 -0.8
Flames 2 Ducks 3 (so)-0.7
Blue Jackets 5 Islanders 4 (so)*+0.4
Bruins 5 Blues 4 (so)+0.3
Predators 6 Blues 5 (so)*+0.3
Kings 3 Ducks 2 (so)*+0.3
Flyers 2 Ducks 1 (ot)*+0.2
Devils 4 Maple Leafs 3 (so)+0.2
Capitals 4 Coyotes 5 (ot)*+0.2
Maple Leafs 4 Blue Jackets 3 (so)*+0.2
Sharks 4 Bruins 3 *+0.2
Avalanche 3 Blue Jackets 4 (so)*-0.2
Flames 2 Penguins 1 (ot)*+0.2
Sabres 2 Blackhawks 3 (so)*+0.2
Blues 2 Sabres 3 (ot)*-0.2
Red Wings 3 Coyotes 2 (so)*-0.2
Flyers 4 Wild 5 (ot)*+0.2
Blue Jackets 3 Ducks 2 (ot)*+0.1
Avalanche 5 Ducks 4 (ot)*+0.1
Thrashers 6 Kings 4 *-0.1
Red Wings 4 Coyotes 3 -0.1
Canucks 2 Stars 5 *-0.1
Lightning 3 Panthers 0 *+0.1
Lightning 2 Stars 3 *+0.1
Sabres 5 Canucks 2 *-0.1
Oilers 1 Sharks 5 +0.0
Sabres 7 Predators 4 -0.0
Hurricanes 5 Ducks 4 (so)*+0.0
Coyotes 2 Rangers 1 +0.0
Blues 4 Senators 1 *+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Ducks vs Kings-0.7-0.5-0.6*+0.2+0.2+0.9
Stars vs Ducks+0.9+0.2*+0.2-0.6-0.5-0.7
Stars vs Ducks+0.8+0.1*+0.3-0.5-0.5-0.7
Ducks vs Stars-0.7-0.6-0.6+0.3+0.2+0.8
Sharks vs Ducks+0.8+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.7
Ducks vs Stars-0.7-0.6-0.4*+0.2+0.2+0.8
Wild vs Ducks+0.8+0.1+0.1-0.6-0.5-0.6
Oilers vs Ducks+0.8*+0.1+0.1-0.6-0.5-0.6
Sharks vs Ducks+0.8+0.2*+0.2-0.5-0.5-0.6
Ducks vs Predators-0.5-0.5-0.7*+0.1*+0.0+0.7
Ducks vs Oilers-0.6-0.5-0.6+0.1*+0.1+0.8
Ducks vs Wild-0.6-0.6-0.6+0.0+0.2+0.8
Ducks vs Capitals-0.5-0.6-0.6*+0.2*+0.1+0.8
Red Wings vs Ducks+0.8+0.2*+0.0-0.5-0.6-0.6
Rangers vs Ducks+0.8+0.1*+0.0-0.6-0.6-0.6
Ducks vs Blackhawks-0.5-0.5-0.6*+0.1+0.2+0.7
Ducks vs Sharks-0.6-0.5-0.5*+0.1*+0.2+0.8
Ducks vs Red Wings-0.6-0.5-0.4*-0.0+0.1+0.8
Ducks vs Oilers-0.6-0.5-0.5+0.1+0.1+0.8
Blues vs Ducks+0.7+0.0*+0.2-0.6-0.6-0.5
Maple Leafs vs Ducks+0.7*+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.5-0.5
Blues vs Ducks+0.8+0.1*+0.2-0.5-0.6-0.6
Ducks vs Maple Leafs-0.6-0.6-0.5*-0.0+0.1+0.8
Red Wings vs Ducks+0.7+0.1*+0.0-0.5-0.5-0.6
Ducks vs Bruins-0.5-0.6-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.7
Avalanche vs Ducks+0.7+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.5-0.5
Blue Jackets vs Ducks+0.8+0.0*+0.0-0.5-0.5-0.6
Ducks vs Blues-0.6-0.5-0.5*+0.1+0.1+0.7
Ducks vs Red Wings-0.6-0.6-0.4*+0.0*+0.1+0.7
Ducks vs Canucks-0.5-0.5-0.5*-0.0+0.1+0.7
Ducks vs Sabres-0.5-0.5-0.6*+0.1+0.1+0.7
Ducks vs Islanders-0.5-0.5-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.7
Bruins vs Ducks+0.7*+0.0*+0.1-0.5-0.6-0.5
Ducks vs Devils-0.5-0.5-0.4*-0.1+0.1+0.7
Predators vs Ducks+0.7*+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.5
Canucks vs Ducks+0.7*+0.1*+0.0-0.5-0.5-0.5
Ducks vs Lightning-0.5-0.5-0.6*+0.2*+0.1+0.7
Ducks vs Thrashers-0.6-0.5-0.5*+0.0+0.2+0.7

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
128-145100
127337-4964
126316-7982
125328-485131
124318-58911
123308-688110
122309-5792011
121299-6742421
1202910-5672832
1192810-6603523
1182811-551413040
1172711-63946710700
1162712-53052910800
1152612-6215212201200
1142512-7145212411510
1132513-6747157102021
1122413-744014102235200
1112414-6131121430268500
1102314-7023916402614800
1092315-601461851231912110
2416-40156186122191111
1082215-79317621825162200
1072216-64114631229214500
2317-44214521328225500
1062116-72095482823118010
1052117-6105343252119152200
1042017-7003242191624195601
1032018-601130139282111101100
1021918-70113073261719164400
1011919-60020311812242099110
1001819-70110116261717143400
991820-6100522013241878200
981720-70002013626181512610
971721-60162211421191240
961621-720147252021820
951622-61731917252081
941522-7131141021301641
931523-61751633251030
921423-7719152724952
911424-6211627321381
901425-515122937961
891224-8113172530103
881225-735161837165
871226-61224121835
861227-5131325132513
851026-8572914
841128-5100
831129-4100
78-82100
57044-0100
Total:7175721111287543321111000000000