How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Kings 5 Stars 2 -5.8
-0.6
Oilers 3 Stars 1 -5.6
-0.6
Stars 2 Wild 4 -5.6
-0.6
Stars 4 Blues 6 -5.6
-0.6
Stars 3 Sharks 5 -5.3
-0.6
Panthers 3 Stars 2 -5.2
-0.5
Stars 2 Sabres 3 -5.2
-0.6
Wild 3 Stars 2 -5.1
-0.5
Stars 2 Canadiens 3 -5.0
-0.5
Stars 1 Flames 2 -5.0
-0.5
Penguins 6 Stars 1 -5.0
-0.5
Stars 1 Senators 2 -4.8
-0.5
Stars 3 Devils 2 (ot)+4.8
+0.5
Canucks 2 Stars 5 +4.4
+0.4
Stars 2 Rangers 1 (so)+4.3
+0.4
Predators 2 Stars 4 +4.3
+0.4
Predators 5 Stars 6 +4.2
+0.4
Wild 3 Stars 4 +4.1
+0.4
Blackhawks 4 Stars 6 +4.1
+0.4
Sharks 1 Stars 3 +4.1
+0.4
Avalanche 1 Stars 4 +4.1
+0.4
Stars 5 Coyotes 3 +4.1
+0.4
Blues 3 Stars 6 +4.0
+0.4
Blues 0 Stars 2 +4.0
+0.4
Stars 4 Flyers 3 (ot)+3.9
+0.4
Stars 4 Sharks 3 +3.8
+0.4
Stars 2 Thrashers 1 +3.8
+0.4
Senators 1 Stars 4 +3.7
+0.4
Stars 7 Panthers 3 +3.7
+0.4
Stars 3 Bruins 2 +3.7
+0.4
Lightning 2 Stars 3 +3.5
+0.4
Islanders 2 Stars 3 +3.5
+0.3
Stars 4 Penguins 2 +3.4
+0.4
Flyers 2 Stars 5 +3.3
+0.3
Blackhawks 4 Bruins 3 (ot)*-1.3
Stars 2 Flames 3 (so)*-1.1
*-0.1
Penguins 3 Coyotes 1 +1.0
Sabres 7 Ducks 0 +1.0
Blue Jackets 6 Hurricanes 3 -0.8
Rangers 6 Blue Jackets 0 +0.8
Hurricanes 4 Canucks 1 +0.8
Coyotes 3 Bruins 5 +0.8
Stars 5 Blackhawks 6 (so)*-0.7
*-0.0
Panthers 6 Kings 4 *+0.7
Flyers 2 Canadiens 4 *+0.6
Kings 3 Flyers 2 *-0.6
Thrashers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)*-0.5
Stars 2 Red Wings 3 (ot)*-0.5
*-0.0
Islanders 2 Kings 3 *-0.4
Rangers 7 Maple Leafs 0 *-0.4
Coyotes 5 Sabres 4 *-0.4
-0.1
Canucks 2 Devils 3 (so)*-0.3
Avalanche 1 Thrashers 3 *+0.3
Capitals 2 Stars 1 (so)*-0.3
*-0.0
Coyotes 4 Red Wings 2 *+0.2
Thrashers 3 Flames 4 (ot)*+0.2
Coyotes 4 Penguins 5 (ot)*-0.0
Stars 1 Capitals 2 (so)*-0.1
*-0.0
Blue Jackets 1 Canucks 2 (ot)*+0.0
Panthers 6 Coyotes 0 +0.1
Devils 3 Ducks 4 -0.1
Ducks 3 Flyers 1 *-0.1
Kings 7 Rangers 3 -0.0
Senators 5 Avalanche 4 *+0.0
Penguins 2 Senators 1 *+0.0
Oilers 4 Thrashers 3 *-0.0
Rangers 4 Penguins 2 *-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Stars vs Canucks+2.7+2.4+3.5*-0.5*-0.5-3.6
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Blue Jackets vs Stars-3.9-0.9-1.6+2.4+2.8+3.2
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Blue Jackets vs Stars-3.9*-0.3*-1.1+3.2+2.3+3.0
-0.4*-0.0*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Red Wings vs Stars-4.0*-0.1*-0.8+2.6+2.7+3.0
-0.4*-0.0*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Stars vs Canucks+2.7+2.5+3.2*-1.0*-0.2-3.7
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Blackhawks vs Stars-3.9*-0.5*-0.6+2.4+2.7+3.0
-0.4*-0.0*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Stars vs Blue Jackets+3.0+2.6+2.6*-0.3*-0.6-3.8
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Avalanche vs Stars-3.4*-0.5*-0.1+3.4+2.0+2.5
-0.4*-0.1-0.1+0.4+0.3+0.3
Devils vs Stars-3.4*-0.5*-0.8+3.4+2.6+2.5
-0.4*-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Sharks vs Stars-3.8*-0.1*-1.3+2.6+2.9+2.8
-0.5*-0.0*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Stars vs Blue Jackets+3.0+2.2+2.3*-0.4-1.0-3.7
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Flames vs Stars-3.6*-0.0*-0.1+3.1+2.6+2.4
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Stars vs Kings+2.4+1.9+3.3*+0.8*-0.6-3.3
+0.4+0.3+0.3*-0.0-0.1-0.5
Flames vs Stars-3.8*-0.3*-0.9+2.8+2.7+2.8
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Stars vs Red Wings+2.8+2.3+2.2*+0.5*-0.4-3.7
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.0-0.4
Kings vs Stars-3.6*-0.3*-0.4+2.1+1.9+2.9
-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Stars vs Predators+2.6+2.9+1.9*-0.7*-0.3-3.6
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Stars vs Oilers+2.6+2.8+2.3*-0.1*-0.3-3.6
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Stars vs Blackhawks+2.8+2.7+2.4*-1.0-0.9-3.5
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Stars vs Wild+2.4+2.5+2.8*+1.4*-0.5-3.5
+0.3+0.3+0.3*+0.1-0.1-0.4
Coyotes vs Stars-3.6*-0.7*+0.8+2.5+2.5+2.7
-0.4-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Canucks vs Stars-3.5*-0.6*-0.2+2.3+2.4+2.7
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Sabres vs Stars-3.1*-0.5*-1.0+3.1+2.5+2.3
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.4+0.3+0.3
Canadiens vs Stars-3.2*-0.3*-1.2+3.0+2.2+2.4
-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Stars vs Oilers+2.7+2.4+2.3*-0.1*-0.5-3.5
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Stars vs Kings+2.6+2.4+2.1*+0.6*-0.5-3.5
+0.4+0.3+0.3*-0.0-0.1-0.5
Stars vs Avalanche+2.7+2.3+2.6*-0.4*-0.6-3.5
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Stars vs Ducks+2.7+2.2+1.9*-0.3*-0.2-3.5
+0.4+0.3+0.2*-0.1*-0.1-0.5
Stars vs Coyotes+2.7+2.6+2.3*-0.7*-0.7-3.4
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Red Wings vs Stars-3.4*-0.7*-0.5+1.8+2.5+2.7
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Rangers vs Stars-3.5*-0.2*+0.5+2.5+2.6+2.3
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Stars vs Blues+2.6+2.3+1.8*-0.5*+0.4-3.6
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.4
Oilers vs Stars-3.5*-0.7*-0.1+2.4+2.6+2.6
-0.4-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Ducks vs Stars-3.5*-0.2*+0.3+2.4+2.4+2.5
-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Maple Leafs vs Stars-3.4*-0.2*-0.4+1.9+2.4+2.5
-0.4-0.0-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Stars vs Ducks+2.5+2.3+2.1*-0.5*-0.3-3.3
+0.4+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.5
Bruins vs Stars-3.3*-0.3*+0.0+2.3+2.5+2.4
-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Hurricanes vs Stars-3.2*-0.0*-0.5+2.6+2.1+2.2
-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.2+0.3
Stars vs Avalanche+2.2+2.5+2.4*+0.2*-0.2-3.3
+0.3+0.3+0.3+0.0*-0.0-0.4
Coyotes vs Stars-3.3*-0.1*-0.2+2.2+1.8+2.5
-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Stars vs Predators+2.2+2.5+1.7*-0.8*+0.3-3.2
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Stars vs Maple Leafs+2.3+2.5+2.4*+0.1*-0.2-3.3
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.0-0.4
Ducks vs Stars-3.3*-0.5*+0.4+2.4+2.2+2.4
-0.5-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.4
Thrashers vs Stars-3.3*-0.1*+0.1+1.7+2.4+2.4
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Stars vs Islanders+2.3+2.4+2.4*-0.9*-0.5-3.1
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Stars vs Hurricanes+2.3+2.2+2.0*+0.2*-0.3-3.1
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.0-0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Stars finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
122-143In100161*
121328-6In9721113*
120329-5In9612203*
119319-6In9055294*
1183110-5In88507498*
1173010-6In8310080661*
1162910-7In7311151957*
1152911-6In651611811,298*
1142811-7In571712321,702*
1132812-6In4621129402,270*
1122712-7In352223562,924*
1112713-6In2723337913,412*
1102613-7In171944415104,051*
1092614-6In101844421204,737*
1082514-7In51554228405,271*
1072515-6In210537378005,764*
1062415-7In17530421313,588*
2314-9In16632401412,569*
1052416-6100.0%0342344223006,463*
1042316-799.90241541307102,705*
2417-5In023154230713,768*
1032317-699.9128353814203,763*
2418-4In12935371522,550*
1022217-799.60142740215005,971*
1012218-698.600217383110103,444*
2319-498.7002183931912,356*
1002118-795.50193037184005,227*
992119-689.60042138269104,662*
982019-778.80212323417413,975*
972020-662.60016213528913,448*
961920-746.80213323316302,718*
951921-632.3182435248102,187*
941821-717.500314323314311,790*
931822-67.217243624711,337*
921722-74.4041434321420931*
911622-81.11825392161745*
901623-70.205173332121516*
891624-6Out193040173356*
881524-7Out162041248203*
871525-6Out215344071161*
861425-7Out3103736132101*
851325-8Out2155230254*
841326-7Out3192743837*
831428-4Out71373715*
821227-7Out41471217*
811026-10Out38638*
801330-3Out25754*
791129-6Out60405*
781231-3Out50502*
51046-0Out1008
Total:88.3%9621719151185321000100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Kings 5 Stars 2 +1.2
Stars 2 Wild 4 +1.2
Stars 2 Sabres 3 +1.1
Panthers 3 Stars 2 +1.1
Stars 3 Sharks 5 +1.1
Oilers 3 Stars 1 +1.1
Stars 4 Blues 6 +1.1
Stars 1 Senators 2 +1.1
Stars 2 Canadiens 3 +1.1
Penguins 6 Stars 1 +1.1
Stars 1 Flames 2 +1.0
Wild 3 Stars 2 +1.0
Stars 3 Devils 2 (ot)-1.0
Stars 2 Rangers 1 (so)-0.9
Predators 2 Stars 4 -0.9
Stars 5 Coyotes 3 -0.9
Canucks 2 Stars 5 -0.9
Stars 2 Thrashers 1 -0.9
Predators 5 Stars 6 -0.9
Blackhawks 4 Stars 6 -0.9
Sharks 1 Stars 3 -0.9
Stars 4 Sharks 3 -0.8
Wild 3 Stars 4 -0.8
Blues 3 Stars 6 -0.8
Blues 0 Stars 2 -0.8
Senators 1 Stars 4 -0.8
Stars 3 Bruins 2 -0.8
Avalanche 1 Stars 4 -0.8
Stars 4 Flyers 3 (ot)-0.8
Stars 7 Panthers 3 -0.8
Stars 4 Penguins 2 -0.8
Lightning 2 Stars 3 -0.8
Islanders 2 Stars 3 -0.7
Flyers 2 Stars 5 -0.7
Stars 2 Flames 3 (so)*+0.2
Kings 3 Blues 4 (so)*+0.2
Maple Leafs 4 Hurricanes 3 (so)+0.2
Flames 2 Penguins 1 (ot)+0.2
Capitals 4 Coyotes 5 (ot)*+0.2
Bruins 5 Blues 4 (so)*-0.2
Rangers 3 Flames 2 (so)*+0.2
Predators 4 Red Wings 3 (so)*+0.2
Canadiens 4 Coyotes 3 (so)*+0.2
Lightning 3 Flames 4 (so)*+0.2
Thrashers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)*+0.2
Maple Leafs 5 Blues 6 (so)*-0.2
Blackhawks 4 Bruins 3 (ot)*+0.2
Penguins 3 Coyotes 1 -0.2
Senators 4 Islanders 3 (ot)+0.2
Oilers 4 Lightning 3 (so)*+0.2
Avalanche 3 Bruins 2 (so)*-0.2
Stars 1 Capitals 2 (so)+0.1
Sharks 3 Hurricanes 4 -0.1
Capitals 2 Stars 1 (so)*+0.1
Senators 1 Lightning 4 *+0.1
Rangers 5 Coyotes 2 -0.1
Stars 5 Blackhawks 6 (so)*+0.1
Kings 3 Flyers 2 +0.1
Coyotes 4 Penguins 5 (ot)+0.1
Stars 2 Red Wings 3 (ot)*+0.1
Ducks 3 Blues 5 -0.1
Sharks 3 Wild 4 -0.0
Blackhawks 2 Rangers 3 -0.0
Flames 3 Sabres 5 -0.0
Predators 3 Panthers 1 -0.0
Wild 4 Coyotes 5 -0.0
Coyotes 4 Red Wings 2 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Kings vs Stars+0.9+0.2+0.3-0.6-0.5-0.8
Ducks vs Stars+0.9+0.2+0.2-0.6-0.6-0.7
Stars vs Kings-0.8-0.6-0.6+0.1+0.3+0.9
Stars vs Kings-0.7-0.6-0.6+0.1+0.2+0.9
Ducks vs Stars+0.9+0.2*+0.1-0.7-0.6-0.7
Stars vs Ducks-0.7-0.6-0.6*+0.2+0.2+0.9
Stars vs Ducks-0.7-0.6-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.9
Red Wings vs Stars+0.9*+0.1*+0.1-0.7-0.6-0.6
Blue Jackets vs Stars+0.9*+0.1*+0.1-0.7-0.6-0.7
Avalanche vs Stars+0.8*+0.1*+0.2-0.8-0.5-0.6
Sabres vs Stars+0.8+0.1*+0.2-0.8-0.6-0.6
Sharks vs Stars+0.9+0.1*+0.2-0.7-0.6-0.7
Stars vs Oilers-0.7-0.6-0.6+0.2*+0.1+0.9
Blue Jackets vs Stars+0.9+0.2+0.2-0.7-0.6-0.7
Stars vs Red Wings-0.6-0.6-0.6*+0.0*+0.1+0.9
Stars vs Wild-0.6-0.6-0.6*-0.1+0.1+0.9
Stars vs Blue Jackets-0.6-0.6-0.7*+0.2*+0.1+0.8
Stars vs Oilers-0.7-0.6-0.6*+0.1+0.2+0.9
Stars vs Canucks-0.6-0.6-0.7+0.2*+0.1+0.8
Stars vs Blues-0.6-0.6-0.5+0.1*+0.0+0.9
Oilers vs Stars+0.8+0.2*+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.6
Blackhawks vs Stars+0.8*+0.1+0.1*-0.5-0.6-0.6
Stars vs Blue Jackets-0.6-0.6-0.6*+0.1+0.2+0.8
Flames vs Stars+0.8*+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.6-0.6
Devils vs Stars+0.8*+0.1*+0.1-0.7-0.6-0.6
Stars vs Predators-0.5-0.7-0.6*+0.1*+0.0+0.8
Rangers vs Stars+0.8+0.1*+0.0-0.6-0.6-0.6
Coyotes vs Stars+0.8+0.2*+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.6
Stars vs Canucks-0.6-0.6-0.6*+0.2*+0.2+0.8
Coyotes vs Stars+0.8*+0.1*-0.0-0.6-0.5-0.6
Stars vs Maple Leafs-0.6-0.6-0.6+0.0*+0.1+0.8
Red Wings vs Stars+0.8*+0.2*+0.1-0.5-0.6-0.6
Stars vs Coyotes-0.6-0.6-0.6*+0.1*+0.1+0.8
Stars vs Blackhawks-0.6-0.6-0.5*+0.2*+0.2+0.8

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
125-143100
124347-57723
123337-67129
122338-57822
121328-6791921
120329-5682812
119319-65931415
1183110-552365107
1173010-6414290080
1162910-728451111501
1152911-6184714211701
1142811-7134514412212
1132812-6640147125440
1122712-73321392028760
1112713-61261112302710901
1102613-7016713402816141100
1092614-601041441252020220
1082514-705313411824253400
1072515-62194212253077000
1062415-71063262528131311
1052416-60032232023201933000
1042316-7021211415262477010
2417-502121141626246701
1032317-60112099262413131200
1022217-70010442319211845000
1012218-600002116122622109110
1002118-7001096242017153400
992119-600042191324197920
982019-702111725191515610
972020-60010621914212113300
961920-70201282421209300
951921-6108320172517720
941821-7003113102527154100
931822-6107518282513410
921722-7004172430211020
911622-811414232920710
901623-700271325291751
891624-635223524740
881524-7141319322371
871525-6161931251711
861425-741624272451
851325-8493035202
841326-73830192714
831428-413531320
821227-712183535
811026-10502525
801330-3252550
791129-6404020
781231-35050
51046-0100
Total:27241181010987654333211100000000