How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Coyotes 0 Blues 1 -5.8
-0.6
Stars 5 Coyotes 3 -5.6
-0.6
Canucks 4 Coyotes 2 -5.4
-0.5
Ducks 5 Coyotes 2 -5.4
-0.6
Blues 4 Coyotes 3 -5.3
-0.5
Ducks 4 Coyotes 3 -5.3
-0.6
Penguins 3 Coyotes 1 -5.3
-0.5
Coyotes 2 Blues 5 -5.2
-0.5
Coyotes 3 Flames 4 -5.2
-0.5
Kings 4 Coyotes 2 -5.2
-0.6
Blues 5 Coyotes 4 -5.2
-0.5
Blackhawks 5 Coyotes 4 -5.1
-0.5
Devils 2 Coyotes 0 -5.1
-0.5
Red Wings 4 Coyotes 3 -5.1
-0.5
Coyotes 0 Thrashers 6 -5.0
-0.5
Coyotes 4 Senators 6 -4.9
-0.5
Panthers 6 Coyotes 0 -4.9
-0.5
Coyotes 3 Bruins 5 -4.9
-0.5
Rangers 5 Coyotes 2 -4.8
-0.5
Maple Leafs 5 Coyotes 2 -4.8
-0.5
Lightning 6 Coyotes 3 -4.7
-0.5
Oilers 2 Coyotes 4 +4.4
+0.5
Avalanche 3 Coyotes 5 +4.4
+0.4
Coyotes 6 Avalanche 2 +4.4
+0.5
Wild 4 Coyotes 5 +4.3
+0.4
Coyotes 3 Avalanche 2 +4.2
+0.4
Kings 2 Coyotes 5 +4.2
+0.4
Capitals 4 Coyotes 5 (ot)+4.1
+0.4
Coyotes 2 Rangers 1 +4.1
+0.4
Coyotes 4 Kings 2 +4.1
+0.4
Wild 0 Coyotes 3 +4.0
+0.4
Coyotes 5 Sabres 4 +4.0
+0.4
Coyotes 4 Red Wings 2 +4.0
+0.4
Coyotes 3 Flames 1 +3.9
+0.4
Coyotes 7 Islanders 5 +3.9
+0.4
Coyotes 2 Panthers 1 +3.9
+0.4
Coyotes 5 Hurricanes 4 +3.7
+0.4
Coyotes 3 Maple Leafs 1 +3.3
+0.4
Red Wings 3 Coyotes 2 (so)*-1.7
*-0.1
Coyotes 3 Red Wings 4 (ot)*-1.3
*-0.1
Coyotes 5 Ducks 6 (so)*-1.1
*-0.1
Panthers 4 Oilers 2 +0.9
Panthers 4 Ducks 1 +0.9
Sabres 4 Avalanche 0 +0.8
Bruins 3 Blue Jackets 0 +0.8
Bruins 5 Oilers 1 +0.8
Rangers 3 Sharks 2 +0.8
Islanders 4 Ducks 3 (ot)*-0.7
Kings 3 Flyers 2 *-0.7
-0.1
Coyotes 4 Penguins 5 (ot)*-0.6
*-0.1
Canadiens 4 Coyotes 3 (so)*+0.5
Predators 5 Stars 6 *+0.5
+0.0
Blue Jackets 1 Sabres 3 *+0.5
Thrashers 1 Blue Jackets 2 *-0.4
Senators 5 Predators 3 *+0.4
Penguins 5 Flames 2 *+0.4
Thrashers 1 Wild 3 *-0.4
Red Wings 5 Predators 2 *+0.4
Ducks 2 Blue Jackets 3 *+0.3
Red Wings 1 Flames 2 *+0.3
Stars 4 Sharks 3 *+0.3
Ducks 2 Kings 0 *+0.3
Ducks 3 Sharks 4 *+0.2
Blackhawks 3 Sharks 7 *-0.2
Penguins 4 Sharks 0 +0.1
Senators 1 Stars 4 *-0.0
Blues 4 Wild 1 *+0.0
Hurricanes 3 Thrashers 2 *+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Coyotes vs Sharks+2.8+1.9+2.0*-0.7-1.2-3.2
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Flames vs Coyotes-3.1-0.8*-1.0+2.8+2.7+2.3
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Sharks vs Coyotes-2.9*-0.7-1.2+2.9+2.1+2.3
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Flames vs Coyotes-3.2*-0.7*-0.5+2.3+1.7+2.6
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.2+0.3
Blue Jackets vs Coyotes-3.2-0.9-1.3+2.6+2.2+2.6
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Coyotes vs Blue Jackets+2.7+1.3+2.3*-0.6-0.8-3.0
+0.3+0.2+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.4
Coyotes vs Stars+2.3+1.7+2.7*-0.7*-0.5-2.9
+0.3+0.2+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.3
Blue Jackets vs Coyotes-3.0*-0.6-1.5+1.7+1.6+2.6
-0.4*-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Stars vs Coyotes-2.9-0.9*-0.8+1.6+1.5+2.6
-0.3*-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.3
Sharks vs Coyotes-2.9-1.2*-1.2+1.5+2.2+2.6
-0.3-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
Sabres vs Coyotes-3.0*-0.4*-0.8+1.9+2.5+2.2
-0.3*-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Coyotes vs Blackhawks+2.5+2.0+2.0*-0.7-0.8-3.0
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Coyotes vs Blue Jackets+2.3+2.1+2.6*-0.2-1.5-2.8
+0.3+0.2+0.3*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Coyotes vs Wild+1.9+2.6+2.3*-0.8*-0.4-2.8
+0.2+0.3+0.2*-0.0*-0.1-0.3
Blackhawks vs Coyotes-2.9-0.8-1.5+1.7+2.2+2.4
-0.4*-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.2+0.3
Coyotes vs Sharks+2.4+2.3+2.3-1.4-0.8-2.9
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Coyotes vs Blackhawks+2.4+2.1+2.0*-0.5-1.0-2.9
+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.4
Coyotes vs Predators+2.1+2.1+2.3*-0.4*-0.2-2.9
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Coyotes vs Oilers+2.4+2.1+1.7*-0.1-1.2-2.9
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Coyotes vs Stars+2.3+1.9+1.6*+0.4*-0.5-3.0
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Coyotes vs Canucks+2.3+2.0+2.0*-0.3-0.9-2.9
+0.3+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Coyotes vs Oilers+2.3+2.1+2.2-1.4-1.0-2.7
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.3
Canucks vs Coyotes-2.8*-0.5*-0.8+1.8+2.3+2.1
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Thrashers vs Coyotes-2.8*-0.7*-0.8+2.1+2.1+2.2
-0.3-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.2+0.3
Coyotes vs Wild+2.0+2.3+2.1*-0.5-1.0-2.7
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.3
Coyotes vs Kings+2.2+2.2+1.7*-0.6*-0.5-2.8
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Islanders vs Coyotes-2.5-0.8*-0.7+1.5+2.4+2.0
-0.3*-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
Predators vs Coyotes-2.7*-0.4*-0.3+2.1+2.2+1.9
-0.4*-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Hurricanes vs Coyotes-2.7*-0.1*-0.4+1.8+2.1+2.0
-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.3+0.2
Coyotes vs Capitals+1.9+1.7+2.3*+0.2*-0.7-2.5
+0.2+0.3+0.2*-0.0*-0.1-0.3
Avalanche vs Coyotes-2.7*-0.5*+0.7+1.4+2.1+2.0
-0.3*-0.0-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.2
Coyotes vs Flyers+2.0+2.2+1.7*-0.5*-0.7-2.6
+0.2+0.3+0.2*-0.1*-0.1-0.3
Predators vs Coyotes-2.7*-0.3*-0.0+1.3+1.9+2.1
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Coyotes finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
125430-0In1008
112344-5In50502*
110-111In1008*
109336-4In617393918*
108326-5In5535401520*
107327-4In57549247241*
106317-5In14254917477*
105307-6In12936304128*
104308-5In012103935112207*
103298-699.7%2531391840312*
102299-598.913223528910472*
101289-695.911132351740749*
1002810-591.5016223924811,032*
992710-679.70213303417301,402*
982711-563.5016213626911,964*
972611-647.800313323217302,460*
962612-531.90172436248103,079*
952512-618.40315343213303,720*
942513-58.2017253624714,505*
932413-63.60031733321325,192*
922313-71.2019293620405,693*
912314-60.305183730916,071*
902214-70.1021133361523,383*
2315-50.2021232351623,049*
892215-60.0017254122303,603*
2114-8Out1523402642,948*
882115-7Out03173833803,424*
2216-5Out04193634703,146*
872116-6Out011235401203,990*
2015-8Out1932431402,544*
862016-7Out0628452016,168*
852017-6Out00320472915,610*
841917-7Out0113453824,981*
831918-6Out18394764,324*
821818-7Out05335483,622*
811819-6Out022660123,003*
801719-7Out012061182,435*
791720-6Out11364211,830*
781620-7Out01059311,416*
771621-6Out0756371,130*
761521-7Out035542763*
751522-6Out14554537*
741422-7Out14257362*
731423-6Out13168217*
721323-7Out2872144*
711324-6Out148681*
701224-7Out208060*
691225-6Out198131*
681226-5Out59519*
39-67Out10020*
Total:8.8%00001124710141821174100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Stars 5 Coyotes 3 +1.2
Coyotes 0 Blues 1 +1.2
Ducks 5 Coyotes 2 +1.1
Penguins 3 Coyotes 1 +1.1
Ducks 4 Coyotes 3 +1.1
Canucks 4 Coyotes 2 +1.1
Kings 4 Coyotes 2 +1.1
Coyotes 0 Thrashers 6 +1.1
Blues 4 Coyotes 3 +1.1
Coyotes 2 Blues 5 +1.1
Blues 5 Coyotes 4 +1.1
Blackhawks 5 Coyotes 4 +1.1
Coyotes 4 Senators 6 +1.1
Devils 2 Coyotes 0 +1.1
Coyotes 3 Flames 4 +1.1
Panthers 6 Coyotes 0 +1.1
Coyotes 3 Bruins 5 +1.1
Red Wings 4 Coyotes 3 +1.1
Maple Leafs 5 Coyotes 2 +1.0
Rangers 5 Coyotes 2 +1.0
Lightning 6 Coyotes 3 +1.0
Coyotes 6 Avalanche 2 -0.9
Oilers 2 Coyotes 4 -0.9
Kings 2 Coyotes 5 -0.9
Coyotes 3 Avalanche 2 -0.9
Coyotes 2 Rangers 1 -0.9
Wild 4 Coyotes 5 -0.9
Avalanche 3 Coyotes 5 -0.9
Coyotes 5 Sabres 4 -0.8
Capitals 4 Coyotes 5 (ot)-0.8
Coyotes 3 Flames 1 -0.8
Coyotes 4 Kings 2 -0.8
Coyotes 7 Islanders 5 -0.8
Wild 0 Coyotes 3 -0.8
Coyotes 2 Panthers 1 -0.8
Coyotes 5 Hurricanes 4 -0.8
Coyotes 4 Red Wings 2 -0.8
Coyotes 3 Maple Leafs 1 -0.8
Hurricanes 3 Flyers 2 (so)+0.4
Blues 2 Bruins 3 (so)*-0.3
Red Wings 3 Coyotes 2 (so)*+0.3
Coyotes 3 Red Wings 4 (ot)*+0.2
Capitals 2 Stars 1 (so)*-0.2
Stars 1 Capitals 2 (so)*+0.2
Coyotes 4 Penguins 5 (ot)*+0.2
Flames 2 Ducks 3 (so)*+0.2
Stars 4 Flyers 3 (ot)*+0.2
Kings 4 Avalanche 3 (ot)*+0.2
Lightning 2 Sabres 3 (so)+0.2
Coyotes 5 Ducks 6 (so)*+0.2
Thrashers 3 Flames 4 (ot)*+0.2
Stars 3 Devils 2 (ot)*+0.2
Capitals 2 Blue Jackets 1 (ot)+0.2
Wild 3 Blues 2 (ot)*+0.1
Kings 7 Rangers 3 +0.1
Red Wings 6 Islanders 1 +0.1
Canadiens 4 Coyotes 3 (so)+0.0
Senators 2 Blue Jackets 5 +0.0
Hurricanes 3 Thrashers 2 *-0.0
Canadiens 7 Hurricanes 2 *+0.0
Predators 5 Stars 6 *-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Blue Jackets vs Coyotes+0.7*+0.1*+0.2-0.6-0.5-0.6
Flames vs Coyotes+0.7+0.2*+0.1-0.6-0.5-0.6
Coyotes vs Predators-0.6-0.5-0.5*+0.0+0.1+0.7
Blackhawks vs Coyotes+0.7*+0.2+0.2-0.6-0.5-0.6
Predators vs Coyotes+0.7*+0.1*+0.2-0.5-0.5-0.6
Flames vs Coyotes+0.7+0.2*+0.2-0.5-0.6-0.5
Sharks vs Coyotes+0.7*+0.1*+0.2-0.6-0.5-0.5
Blue Jackets vs Coyotes+0.7*+0.1*+0.2-0.5-0.5-0.5
Canucks vs Coyotes+0.7+0.2*+0.2-0.5-0.5-0.6
Coyotes vs Blackhawks-0.6-0.5-0.4*+0.2+0.1+0.7
Coyotes vs Canucks-0.6-0.4-0.4*+0.1*+0.2+0.7
Coyotes vs Blue Jackets-0.5-0.5-0.5*+0.0+0.2+0.7
Coyotes vs Blackhawks-0.5-0.5-0.5*+0.1+0.1+0.7
Coyotes vs Sharks-0.5-0.5-0.5*+0.1+0.1+0.7
Coyotes vs Lightning-0.5-0.5-0.5*+0.1+0.2+0.7
Coyotes vs Sharks-0.5-0.5-0.5*+0.1+0.2+0.7
Predators vs Coyotes+0.7+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5
Coyotes vs Blue Jackets-0.5-0.4-0.5+0.1*+0.1+0.7
Coyotes vs Stars-0.5-0.4-0.6*+0.1*+0.1+0.7
Coyotes vs Canucks-0.5-0.5-0.5+0.2*+0.1+0.7
Coyotes vs Stars-0.5-0.5-0.4+0.1*+0.1+0.7
Coyotes vs Wild-0.5-0.5-0.5*+0.0*+0.1+0.7
Coyotes vs Kings-0.5-0.5-0.4*+0.0*+0.1+0.7
Stars vs Coyotes+0.7*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.6
Coyotes vs Predators-0.5-0.5-0.4*+0.1*+0.2+0.7
Coyotes vs Flyers-0.5-0.5-0.4+0.2*+0.1+0.7
Thrashers vs Coyotes+0.7*+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5
Coyotes vs Oilers-0.5-0.5-0.4*+0.1+0.2+0.7
Bruins vs Coyotes+0.7+0.2+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
Flyers vs Coyotes+0.7+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5
Sharks vs Coyotes+0.7+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
Sabres vs Coyotes+0.7*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
Avalanche vs Coyotes+0.7+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5
Coyotes vs Devils-0.5-0.5-0.5*-0.0*+0.1+0.7
Coyotes vs Wild-0.5-0.5-0.5*+0.2*+0.2+0.6
Hurricanes vs Coyotes+0.7+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
Islanders vs Coyotes+0.7*+0.2*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5
Coyotes vs Oilers-0.5-0.5-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.7
Senators vs Coyotes+0.7*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
Oilers vs Coyotes+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
125430-08813
112344-55050
111334-6100
110335-57129
109336-46611221739
108326-55520154015
107327-45751732205522
106317-51316184091614
105318-4152419173014
104308-501101915242951012
103298-61105823251417140
102299-50133191817243910
101289-6119923251017040
1002810-50165172118195710
992710-600211212192581730
982711-501064162115241030
972611-600311213192519710
962612-50107618222515510
952512-600321316282311310
942513-5010782228229200
932413-60003313252819610
922313-7011618282713410
912314-6002821302311300
902214-7004132531197100
2315-5001412263020610
892215-60001618302714300
2114-801616282815500
882115-7000210233023920
872116-601415293116400
862016-70182332249100
852017-6041529311730
841917-701823342581
831918-60141532311520
821818-7029253822500
811819-604183632810
801719-7021132371530
791720-601623432240
781620-703173930101
771621-601113535162
761521-7142941214
751522-621945294
741422-721536389
731423-6011304316
721323-73255122
711324-6174835
701224-73125035
691326-435245
681226-554747
671126-65050
39-66100
Total:0000000000011223356791011111096310