How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Flyers 4 Rangers 2 -5.7
-0.6
Panthers 5 Rangers 2 -5.6
-0.6
Rangers 1 Canadiens 2 -5.5
-0.6
Rangers 1 Penguins 3 -5.3
-0.6
Rangers 2 Flyers 3 -5.3
-0.6
Coyotes 2 Rangers 1 -5.1
-0.5
Hurricanes 2 Rangers 1 -5.1
-0.5
Kings 7 Rangers 3 -4.9
-0.5
Red Wings 3 Rangers 2 -4.9
-0.5
Devils 2 Rangers 4 +4.5
+0.5
Rangers 4 Devils 2 +4.5
+0.5
Rangers 4 Thrashers 2 +4.4
+0.4
Oilers 4 Rangers 1 -4.4
-0.5
Rangers 3 Flames 2 (so)+4.3
+0.4
Capitals 3 Rangers 5 +4.3
+0.4
Rangers 5 Devils 2 +4.3
+0.5
Rangers 4 Penguins 2 +4.2
+0.4
Rangers 4 Maple Leafs 0 +4.2
+0.4
Rangers 5 Flyers 3 +4.2
+0.4
Maple Leafs 1 Rangers 3 +4.2
+0.4
Maple Leafs 1 Rangers 2 +4.1
+0.4
Rangers 7 Maple Leafs 0 +4.1
+0.4
Rangers 6 Lightning 1 +4.1
+0.4
Rangers 5 Predators 2 +4.0
+0.4
Rangers 5 Coyotes 2 +4.0
+0.4
Penguins 4 Rangers 5 (ot)+4.0
+0.4
Capitals 2 Rangers 4 +4.0
+0.4
Sharks 2 Rangers 5 +3.9
+0.4
Rangers 6 Blue Jackets 0 +3.8
+0.4
Rangers 3 Sharks 2 +3.8
+0.4
Rangers 5 Wild 3 +3.8
+0.4
Rangers 5 Kings 4 (ot)+3.8
+0.4
Canucks 3 Rangers 4 (ot)+3.7
+0.4
Flames 0 Rangers 5 +3.7
+0.4
Rangers 4 Canucks 2 +3.7
+0.4
Rangers 2 Red Wings 1 +3.7
+0.4
Blackhawks 2 Rangers 3 +3.6
+0.4
Blue Jackets 3 Rangers 5 +3.6
+0.4
Avalanche 1 Rangers 2 (so)+3.2
+0.4
Wild 3 Blues 2 (ot)*+1.3
Hurricanes 5 Ducks 4 (so)*-1.1
Predators 4 Rangers 3 (ot)*-1.0
*-0.1
Canadiens 1 Wild 4 +1.0
Avalanche 5 Panthers 4 +0.8
Kings 1 Ducks 5 +0.8
Thrashers 2 Canucks 5 +0.8
Ducks 4 Rangers 3 (ot)*-0.7
*-0.1
Stars 2 Rangers 1 (so)*-0.7
*-0.1
Flyers 0 Oilers 5 *+0.6
Blackhawks 8 Wild 7 (so)*-0.5
Canucks 0 Bruins 4 *-0.5
Lightning 3 Flames 4 (so)*-0.4
Flyers 5 Sharks 3 *-0.4
-0.1
Canadiens 3 Sharks 2 *-0.4
Bruins 5 Canucks 4 *-0.4
Sharks 3 Hurricanes 4 *-0.4
Blackhawks 4 Bruins 3 (ot)*-0.3
Maple Leafs 0 Kings 3 *+0.3
Coyotes 5 Sabres 4 *+0.3
Sabres 8 Red Wings 3 *-0.3
Flames 2 Penguins 1 (ot)*-0.3
Flyers 2 Thrashers 0 *+0.2
Senators 3 Blues 2 *-0.2
Thrashers 5 Panthers 3 *-0.2
Kings 3 Ducks 2 (so)-0.2
Canadiens 3 Red Wings 0 -0.1
Predators 4 Devils 1 +0.1
Blue Jackets 5 Islanders 4 (so)*+0.1
Red Wings 6 Islanders 1 +0.1
Capitals 6 Devils 3 +0.0
Blue Jackets 5 Flyers 6 *-0.0
Thrashers 4 Penguins 5 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Rangers vs Senators+0.3+0.3+0.6*+0.1*-0.1-0.5
+0.2+0.1+0.2*-0.0*-0.1-0.2
Penguins vs Rangers-0.5*-0.0*+0.2*+0.3+0.4+0.3
-0.3*-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Wild vs Rangers-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.5*+0.2+0.3
-0.2*-0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Canadiens vs Rangers-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.5*+0.2+0.3
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Lightning vs Rangers-0.5*+0.1*-0.4*+0.4+0.5+0.3
-0.2*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.2+0.2
Hurricanes vs Rangers-0.5*-0.0*-0.1+0.4+0.3+0.3
-0.3-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Rangers vs Senators+0.4+0.3*+0.2*-0.0*+0.1-0.5
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.0-0.2
Rangers vs Capitals+0.3+0.4*+0.3*+0.0*-0.0-0.5
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.3
Thrashers vs Rangers-0.4*-0.1*+0.1*+0.2+0.4+0.3
-0.3*-0.0-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Lightning vs Rangers-0.4*-0.1*-0.3*+0.3+0.4+0.4
-0.2*-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Rangers vs Lightning+0.3+0.3*+0.2*+0.1*-0.1-0.4
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.3
Flyers vs Rangers-0.4*-0.1*+0.0*+0.1+0.3+0.4
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3
Rangers vs Ducks+0.3+0.4*+0.3*-0.2*-0.1-0.4
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1*-0.0-0.3
Rangers vs Panthers+0.3+0.3*+0.1*+0.2*-0.0-0.4
+0.2+0.2+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.2
Rangers vs Islanders+0.3+0.3*+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.4
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.2
Rangers vs Hurricanes+0.3+0.3*+0.3*-0.0*-0.2-0.4
+0.2+0.2+0.2*+0.0*-0.0-0.3
Rangers vs Sabres+0.3+0.2*+0.3*+0.0*-0.0-0.4
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0-0.0-0.3
Rangers vs Capitals+0.3+0.3*+0.1*+0.1*+0.1-0.4
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.0*-0.0-0.3
Rangers vs Thrashers+0.3+0.3*+0.2*+0.1*+0.1-0.4
+0.2+0.2+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.2
Thrashers vs Rangers-0.4*+0.0*+0.1*-0.1*+0.2+0.3
-0.3-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Sabres vs Rangers-0.4*-0.1*-0.2*+0.3+0.4+0.3
-0.3-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Canadiens vs Rangers-0.4*+0.0*-0.1*+0.2+0.4+0.2
-0.3-0.1-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Sabres vs Rangers-0.4*-0.0*-0.1*+0.0+0.3+0.3
-0.3-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Senators vs Rangers-0.4*+0.0*-0.0*+0.3+0.3+0.3
-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Bruins vs Rangers-0.4*-0.1*+0.0*+0.1+0.3+0.3
-0.3*-0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Islanders vs Rangers-0.4*+0.2*-0.1*+0.2+0.3+0.3
-0.2*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Rangers vs Sabres+0.3*+0.2*+0.3*-0.1*+0.2-0.4
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0-0.0-0.3
Blues vs Rangers-0.3-0.3*-0.1*+0.4*+0.2+0.3
-0.2-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Rangers vs Canadiens+0.3+0.3*+0.3*+0.1*-0.1-0.4
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.0-0.1-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Rangers finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
132-149In10040*
131337-4In97331*
130327-5In10055*
129317-6In991115*
128318-5In991161*
127319-4In991248*
126298-7In964404*
125299-6In973548*
1242910-5In955818*
1232810-6In9191,106*
1222710-7In891101,486*
1212711-6In851501,966*
1202611-7In802002,597*
1192612-6In7327003,270*
1182512-7In6831013,972*
1172513-6In6039014,520*
1162413-7In5246025,185*
1152414-6In43531305,710*
1142314-7In35602306,291*
1132315-6In26653606,461*
1122215-7In196659103,904*
2114-9In196578102,593*
1112216-6In136581123,980*
2115-8In1265911302,581*
1102116-7In8611214403,810*
2015-9In7611313502,617*
1092117-6In45516168105,951*
1082017-7In247211512205,389*
1072018-6In1362517174004,785*
1061918-7In026281422814,294*
1051919-6In01927112514303,480*
1041819-7100.0%1126828196102,824*
1031820-699.86236252612202,283*
1021720-799.221831932186101,821*
1011721-697.6116112312610201,393*
1001621-793.70907233421601,022*
991622-688.40803163328102733*
981522-779.152930341740522*
971523-667.92424382570386*
961423-751.612123735112258*
951424-638.31262940193162*
941324-721.613184824697*
931325-616.717353015360*
921225-78.08282832425*
911327-4Out146414714*
901126-7Out2517421712*
891026-8Out33676*
881128-5Out2040405*
861029-5Out1001
61044-0Out1008
Total:99.1%2841107642110000100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Flyers 4 Rangers 2 +1.2
Rangers 1 Penguins 3 +1.2
Panthers 5 Rangers 2 +1.2
Rangers 2 Flyers 3 +1.1
Rangers 1 Canadiens 2 +1.1
Hurricanes 2 Rangers 1 +1.1
Coyotes 2 Rangers 1 +1.1
Kings 7 Rangers 3 +1.1
Red Wings 3 Rangers 2 +1.1
Oilers 4 Rangers 1 +1.0
Devils 2 Rangers 4 -1.0
Rangers 5 Devils 2 -0.9
Rangers 4 Devils 2 -0.9
Rangers 4 Penguins 2 -0.9
Rangers 5 Flyers 3 -0.9
Sharks 2 Rangers 5 -0.9
Capitals 3 Rangers 5 -0.9
Rangers 5 Predators 2 -0.9
Penguins 4 Rangers 5 (ot)-0.9
Maple Leafs 1 Rangers 2 -0.9
Maple Leafs 1 Rangers 3 -0.9
Rangers 4 Thrashers 2 -0.8
Rangers 3 Sharks 2 -0.8
Rangers 4 Maple Leafs 0 -0.8
Rangers 5 Wild 3 -0.8
Rangers 6 Blue Jackets 0 -0.8
Capitals 2 Rangers 4 -0.8
Rangers 6 Lightning 1 -0.8
Rangers 5 Coyotes 2 -0.8
Rangers 7 Maple Leafs 0 -0.8
Canucks 3 Rangers 4 (ot)-0.8
Rangers 2 Red Wings 1 -0.8
Blue Jackets 3 Rangers 5 -0.8
Blackhawks 2 Rangers 3 -0.8
Rangers 4 Canucks 2 -0.8
Flames 0 Rangers 5 -0.8
Rangers 5 Kings 4 (ot)-0.8
Rangers 3 Flames 2 (so)-0.8
Avalanche 1 Rangers 2 (so)-0.7
Kings 3 Ducks 2 (so)+0.3
Oilers 5 Red Wings 4 (so)-0.3
Predators 4 Rangers 3 (ot)*+0.3
Predators 4 Red Wings 3 (so)*-0.2
Sharks 6 Oilers 5 (so)+0.2
Stars 2 Rangers 1 (so)*+0.2
Bruins 5 Blues 4 (so)*+0.2
Capitals 4 Coyotes 5 (ot)*+0.2
Hurricanes 4 Sabres 3 (so)*-0.2
Blues 2 Sabres 3 (ot)*+0.2
Maple Leafs 5 Blues 6 (so)*+0.2
Sabres 2 Blackhawks 3 (so)*+0.2
Wild 3 Blues 2 (ot)*-0.2
Islanders 3 Canucks 2 (so)*+0.2
Ducks 4 Rangers 3 (ot)+0.2
Blues 2 Capitals 3 (so)*+0.2
Flyers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)*+0.2
Predators 4 Devils 1 -0.1
Flyers 3 Capitals 0 +0.1
Thrashers 5 Panthers 3 *+0.1
Flames 2 Penguins 1 (ot)*+0.1
Senators 6 Flames 4 *+0.0
Canucks 5 Blackhawks 3 *+0.0
Senators 2 Blue Jackets 5 *-0.0
Thrashers 4 Penguins 5 *+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Flyers vs Rangers+0.6+0.2+0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5
Penguins vs Rangers+0.6+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5
Canadiens vs Rangers+0.6+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.3-0.5
Rangers vs Canadiens-0.5-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.6
Canadiens vs Rangers+0.6+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.5
Sabres vs Rangers+0.6+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Rangers vs Sabres-0.4-0.4-0.3*+0.1+0.1+0.6
Rangers vs Capitals-0.4-0.4-0.3*+0.1+0.1+0.5
Rangers vs Capitals-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.0*+0.0+0.6
Sabres vs Rangers+0.6+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Rangers vs Thrashers-0.4-0.4-0.3*+0.1*+0.0+0.5
Hurricanes vs Rangers+0.6+0.1*+0.0-0.4-0.3-0.4
Wild vs Rangers+0.5+0.0*-0.0-0.4-0.3-0.4
Rangers vs Ducks-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.2+0.1+0.5
Blues vs Rangers+0.5+0.2*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Rangers vs Hurricanes-0.4-0.4-0.3*+0.0+0.1+0.5
Rangers vs Senators-0.4-0.3-0.4*+0.0*+0.1+0.5
Thrashers vs Rangers+0.5*+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Rangers vs Sabres-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.1+0.1+0.5
Islanders vs Rangers+0.5*+0.0*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Lightning vs Rangers+0.5*+0.0+0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4
Rangers vs Islanders-0.4-0.4-0.3*+0.0*+0.1+0.5
Lightning vs Rangers+0.5*+0.0*+0.2-0.4-0.4-0.4
Thrashers vs Rangers+0.5+0.0+0.0-0.3-0.4-0.4
Rangers vs Panthers-0.4-0.4-0.3*+0.0*+0.0+0.5
Senators vs Rangers+0.5*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Rangers vs Senators-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.1+0.1+0.5
Rangers vs Stars-0.4-0.4-0.3*+0.1+0.1+0.5
Bruins vs Rangers+0.5+0.1*-0.0-0.4-0.4-0.4
Rangers vs Lightning-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.0+0.1+0.5
Senators vs Rangers+0.5*+0.0*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Rangers vs Oilers-0.4-0.3-0.3+0.0+0.0+0.5
Rangers vs Panthers-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.0*+0.1+0.5
Rangers vs Islanders-0.3-0.4-0.4*+0.1*+0.0+0.5
Rangers vs Avalanche-0.4-0.3-0.3*-0.1*+0.1+0.5
Rangers vs Hurricanes-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.1+0.1+0.5
Devils vs Rangers+0.5+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.3-0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
132-149100
131337-4973
130327-5100
129317-6991
128318-5991
127319-49801
126298-79604
125299-69613
124289-79515
1232810-69019
1222710-7862110
1212711-6814150
1202611-7756200
1192612-665826000
1182512-7561231001
1172513-6461438101
1162413-73517451020
1152414-625185131300
1142314-717185552300
1132315-691757830501
2214-810175683510
1122215-75145312607110
2316-5513521368110
1112216-62104619809220
2115-8211461990102200
1102116-7173626121104400
1092117-6042630151967010
1082017-702153218388111200
1072018-619272056101434000
1061918-70423199311157701
1051919-602181611210141112230
1041819-701112141812171646010
1031820-6068150671818811120
1021720-725130331715171626010
1011721-6121301112112120710020
1001621-7018007518201418360
991622-6018031161320227920
981522-75209624201313611
971523-624321152319112
961423-7121111027221682
951424-612642515271621
941324-71318833201151
931325-61771030181252
921225-781216364204
911327-4772921297
901227-5833172517
891026-81717171733
881128-5402040
861029-5100
61044-0100
Total:2082912734342211110000000000