"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Canadiens 6 Penguins 5 (so)+6.3
+0.5
Hurricanes 5 Canadiens 2 -5.7
-0.6
Canadiens 1 Maple Leafs 2 -5.4
-0.6
Sabres 4 Canadiens 3 -5.4
-0.6
Canadiens 1 Wild 4 -5.3
-0.5
Senators 3 Canadiens 0 -5.1
-0.5
Kings 4 Canadiens 3 -5.0
-0.5
Ducks 5 Canadiens 0 -4.9
-0.5
Canadiens 1 Kings 2 -4.7
-0.5
Canadiens 5 Capitals 4 +4.5
+0.5
Canadiens 5 Flyers 1 +4.5
+0.5
Canadiens 6 Lightning 1 +4.4
+0.4
Panthers 0 Canadiens 3 +4.3
+0.5
Canadiens 4 Islanders 2 +4.2
+0.4
Canadiens 6 Avalanche 2 +4.2
+0.4
Penguins 1 Canadiens 7 +4.2
+0.4
Flyers 2 Canadiens 4 +4.2
+0.4
Canadiens 7 Lightning 1 +4.2
+0.4
Canadiens 3 Hurricanes 2 +4.1
+0.4
Lightning 2 Canadiens 4 +4.1
+0.4
Canadiens 4 Panthers 2 +4.1
+0.4
Canadiens 7 Hurricanes 2 +4.0
+0.4
Canadiens 4 Maple Leafs 1 +4.0
+0.4
Islanders 4 Canadiens 5 +4.0
+0.4
Stars 2 Canadiens 3 +4.0
+0.4
Canadiens 4 Bruins 0 +4.0
+0.4
Rangers 1 Canadiens 2 +3.9
+0.4
Bruins 3 Canadiens 4 +3.9
+0.4
Predators 0 Canadiens 9 +3.9
+0.4
Canadiens 3 Blackhawks 0 +3.8
+0.4
Canadiens 3 Red Wings 0 +3.7
+0.4
Red Wings 1 Canadiens 3 +3.6
+0.4
Canadiens 4 Coyotes 3 (so)+3.6
+0.4
Canucks 1 Canadiens 6 +3.6
+0.4
Canadiens 3 Sharks 2 +3.6
+0.4
Canadiens 8 Ducks 6 +3.5
+0.4
Avalanche 3 Canadiens 4 +3.5
+0.4
Oilers 2 Canadiens 4 +3.5
+0.4
Avalanche 2 Devils 3 (ot)-1.6
Senators 4 Islanders 3 (ot)-1.5
*-0.1
Canucks 3 Rangers 4 (ot)-1.5
-0.1
Red Wings 6 Penguins 5 (so)*+1.0
Canucks 3 Lightning 6 -0.9
Panthers 4 Oilers 2 -0.9
Blues 3 Devils 1 +0.8
Thrashers 2 Canucks 5 +0.8
Sharks 5 Sabres 2 *+0.7
Devils 1 Oilers 3 *+0.6
Penguins 1 Canucks 3 *+0.6
Blue Jackets 3 Lightning 4 (ot)*+0.5
Blues 4 Lightning 3 (ot)*+0.5
Stars 4 Sharks 3 *-0.5
Flyers 4 Thrashers 3 *+0.4
Kings 3 Flyers 2 *+0.4
*+0.0
Kings 1 Ducks 5 *+0.3
Thrashers 5 Canadiens 4 (so)*+0.3
*-0.0
Blackhawks 2 Hurricanes 4 *-0.3
Rangers 4 Canucks 2 *-0.3
Panthers 4 Predators 6 *+0.2
Maple Leafs 0 Devils 1 *+0.2
Blue Jackets 4 Blackhawks 7 *+0.2
Panthers 1 Senators 3 *-0.0
Blue Jackets 3 Maple Leafs 0 +0.1
Blackhawks 3 Maple Leafs 4 -0.1
Islanders 1 Bruins 4 -0.0
Sabres 4 Avalanche 0 -0.0
Sabres 4 Panthers 0 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Capitals vs Canadiens-0.2*+0.0*+0.0*+0.1+0.2+0.1
-0.2*-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.2
Thrashers vs Canadiens-0.2*+0.1*-0.0*+0.2*+0.1+0.1
-0.2*+0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.2
Sabres vs Canadiens-0.2*+0.0*+0.0*+0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.3-0.1-0.0+0.1+0.2+0.2
Wild vs Canadiens-0.2*+0.0*-0.1*+0.1+0.2+0.1
-0.2*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.2+0.1
Capitals vs Canadiens-0.2*+0.0*+0.0*+0.2+0.1+0.1
-0.2-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.1+0.2
Canadiens vs Senators+0.1+0.2*+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0-0.0-0.2
Canadiens vs Thrashers+0.1*+0.1*+0.0*+0.0*+0.1-0.2
+0.1+0.2+0.1-0.0*+0.0-0.2
Senators vs Canadiens-0.2*+0.0*+0.1*+0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.2-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.1+0.2
Canadiens vs Flames+0.1*+0.1*+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.2
+0.1+0.1+0.2*+0.0*-0.0-0.2
Canadiens vs Penguins+0.1+0.1*+0.2*+0.0*-0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.1+0.2-0.0*-0.0-0.2
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens-0.2*+0.0*+0.0*+0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.2*-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.2+0.1
Canadiens vs Predators+0.1*+0.1*+0.1*-0.1*+0.0-0.2
+0.1+0.2+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.2
Flyers vs Canadiens-0.2*+0.0*+0.0*+0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.2-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.2
Canadiens vs Sabres+0.1*+0.1*+0.1*-0.0*+0.0-0.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Canadiens vs Rangers+0.1*+0.1*+0.1*+0.1*-0.1-0.1
+0.2+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.1-0.2
Canadiens vs Thrashers+0.1*+0.1*-0.0*-0.1*+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.2+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.2
Sharks vs Canadiens-0.1*-0.0*+0.0*+0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.2*-0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Canadiens vs Oilers+0.1*+0.1*-0.1*-0.1*+0.1-0.2
+0.1+0.2+0.1*-0.0*+0.0-0.2
Canadiens vs Stars+0.1*+0.1*+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.2+0.1*-0.0*+0.0-0.2
Flames vs Canadiens-0.1*-0.0*-0.1*+0.0*+0.1+0.1
-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.1+0.1
Penguins vs Canadiens-0.1*-0.0*-0.0*+0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.2*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.2
Canadiens vs Capitals+0.1*+0.1*+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.2
Canadiens vs Rangers+0.1*+0.1*+0.1*-0.2*+0.0-0.1
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.0-0.2
Blackhawks vs Canadiens-0.1*+0.0*-0.0*+0.2*+0.1+0.1
-0.2-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.2+0.1
Hurricanes vs Canadiens-0.1*-0.0*+0.1*+0.2*+0.1+0.1
-0.2*-0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.1+0.1
Canadiens vs Devils+0.1*+0.1*+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0+0.0-0.2
Canadiens vs Panthers+0.1+0.1*+0.1*-0.0*-0.1-0.1
+0.2+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.2
Rangers vs Canadiens-0.1*+0.0*+0.1*+0.1*-0.0+0.1
-0.2-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.1+0.2
Canadiens vs Senators+0.1*+0.0*+0.1*+0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.2+0.1+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.2
Canadiens vs Sabres+0.1*+0.1*+0.1*-0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Canadiens vs Flyers+0.1*+0.1*+0.0*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.2
Canadiens vs Canucks+0.1*+0.1*+0.0*+0.1*-0.1-0.1
+0.1+0.1+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.2
Canadiens vs Blue Jackets+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.2
Canadiens vs Blues+0.1+0.1+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Canadiens finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
129-153In1001,065*
128299-7In1000574*
1272910-6In1000875*
1262810-7In99101,294*
1252811-6In9911,627*
1242711-7In98102,206*
1232712-6In98202,698*
1222612-7In963003,360*
1212613-6In94513,951*
1202513-7In92714,607*
1192514-6In89923,115*
2615-4In871022,103*
1182414-7In8214043,522*
2515-5In841332,389*
1172415-6In7817053,911*
2314-8In761952,282*
1162315-7In70220703,804*
2214-9In68240702,605*
1152316-6In6228093,750*
2215-8In612901002,704*
1142216-7In523411301,990
2317-5In523311402,402*
2115-9In513411402,037*
1132217-6In4239216006,228*
1122117-7In3242321205,758*
1112118-6In224452533,122*
2219-4In2244527202,106*
1102018-7In1540832504,793*
1092019-6In8371136814,057*
1081919-7In530133713203,415*
1071920-6In223163420402,817*
1061820-7In1161729278102,267*
1051821-6In0101625321331,823*
1041721-7In0613183522501,362*
1031722-699.8%21212322812101,082*
1021622-799.218625361851728*
1011623-698.4052203328102501*
1001523-795.142928351650407*
991524-689.1504193821100221*
981424-785.813172738122169*
971425-669.213626342281117*
961426-541.522217203818265*
951326-642.131624342438*
941226-726.7275313715*
931328-411.11156339*
921127-7Out3655911*
911128-6Out33673*
901129-5Out80205*
87-88Out1002*
63045-0Out1008
Total:99.8%542241342100000100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Canadiens 1 Maple Leafs 2 +1.2
Hurricanes 5 Canadiens 2 +1.1
Sabres 4 Canadiens 3 +1.1
Canadiens 1 Wild 4 +1.1
Canadiens 6 Penguins 5 (so)-1.1
Ducks 5 Canadiens 0 +1.1
Senators 3 Canadiens 0 +1.1
Kings 4 Canadiens 3 +1.1
Canadiens 1 Kings 2 +1.1
Panthers 0 Canadiens 3 -0.9
Canadiens 6 Avalanche 2 -0.9
Canadiens 5 Flyers 1 -0.9
Canadiens 5 Capitals 4 -0.9
Canadiens 6 Lightning 1 -0.9
Canadiens 7 Lightning 1 -0.9
Canadiens 4 Maple Leafs 1 -0.9
Canadiens 4 Bruins 0 -0.9
Flyers 2 Canadiens 4 -0.9
Lightning 2 Canadiens 4 -0.9
Canadiens 4 Coyotes 3 (so)-0.9
Predators 0 Canadiens 9 -0.8
Bruins 3 Canadiens 4 -0.8
Canadiens 4 Islanders 2 -0.8
Canadiens 3 Hurricanes 2 -0.8
Penguins 1 Canadiens 7 -0.8
Canadiens 4 Panthers 2 -0.8
Stars 2 Canadiens 3 -0.8
Canadiens 7 Hurricanes 2 -0.8
Canadiens 3 Blackhawks 0 -0.8
Islanders 4 Canadiens 5 -0.8
Canadiens 3 Red Wings 0 -0.8
Red Wings 1 Canadiens 3 -0.8
Avalanche 3 Canadiens 4 -0.8
Canucks 1 Canadiens 6 -0.8
Canadiens 3 Sharks 2 -0.8
Rangers 1 Canadiens 2 -0.8
Canadiens 8 Ducks 6 -0.8
Oilers 2 Canadiens 4 -0.8
Sabres 2 Blackhawks 3 (so)*-0.4
Bruins 3 Predators 4 (so)*+0.2
Avalanche 2 Devils 3 (ot)+0.2
Capitals 5 Panthers 4 (so)*-0.2
Canucks 3 Rangers 4 (ot)+0.2
Stars 1 Capitals 2 (so)*-0.2
Capitals 2 Stars 1 (so)+0.2
Blues 2 Capitals 3 (so)*-0.2
Stars 2 Flames 3 (so)+0.2
Capitals 2 Wild 3 (so)*-0.2
Senators 4 Islanders 3 (ot)*+0.2
Sharks 4 Penguins 5 (so)*-0.2
Flames 4 Hurricanes 5 (ot)*+0.2
Predators 6 Blues 5 (so)*-0.2
Islanders 3 Devils 4 (so)*-0.2
Blue Jackets 3 Maple Leafs 0 -0.2
Blues 2 Bruins 3 (so)-0.2
Red Wings 3 Canucks 2 (ot)*-0.1
Coyotes 3 Maple Leafs 1 -0.1
Blackhawks 3 Maple Leafs 4 +0.1
Islanders 1 Bruins 4 +0.1
Sabres 4 Panthers 0 *+0.1
Kings 1 Ducks 5 *-0.1
Devils 2 Canucks 5 -0.1
Predators 4 Devils 1 *-0.1
Sharks 1 Canucks 3 *+0.0
Thrashers 5 Canadiens 4 (so)*+0.0
Blue Jackets 4 Blackhawks 7 *-0.0
Blue Jackets 4 Capitals 5 *+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Canadiens vs Sabres-0.5-0.3-0.3+0.2+0.1+0.6
Sabres vs Canadiens+0.5+0.2+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.5
Canadiens vs Sabres-0.5-0.3-0.4+0.2+0.2+0.5
Canadiens vs Rangers-0.4-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.5
Rangers vs Canadiens+0.5+0.1*+0.0-0.3-0.3-0.4
Senators vs Canadiens+0.5+0.1*+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.4
Canadiens vs Rangers-0.4-0.3-0.4+0.1+0.1+0.5
Hurricanes vs Canadiens+0.4*+0.1*+0.0-0.4-0.3-0.3
Thrashers vs Canadiens+0.5*-0.0*+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3
Canadiens vs Stars-0.3-0.4-0.3*+0.0*+0.0+0.4
Canadiens vs Senators-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.1*+0.0+0.4
Blackhawks vs Canadiens+0.4+0.0*+0.0-0.3-0.4-0.3
Capitals vs Canadiens+0.4+0.1*+0.0-0.4-0.3-0.3
Capitals vs Canadiens+0.4*+0.0*+0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3
Canadiens vs Oilers-0.3-0.3-0.2*-0.0*-0.0+0.4
Canadiens vs Blues-0.3-0.3-0.4+0.1+0.1+0.4
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens+0.4*+0.1+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3
Canadiens vs Penguins-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.0*+0.0+0.4
Canadiens vs Senators-0.3-0.3-0.3*+0.1+0.1+0.4
Canadiens vs Thrashers-0.3-0.3-0.2+0.0*-0.0+0.4
Flyers vs Canadiens+0.4+0.1+0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Penguins vs Canadiens+0.4*+0.0*+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3
Canadiens vs Predators-0.3-0.3-0.3*+0.0*+0.0+0.4
Flames vs Canadiens+0.4+0.1+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3
Wild vs Canadiens+0.4+0.1*+0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Canadiens vs Canucks-0.3-0.3-0.3*+0.0+0.0+0.4
Sharks vs Canadiens+0.4*+0.1*-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Canadiens vs Thrashers-0.3-0.3-0.2+0.1*+0.0+0.4
Canadiens vs Flames-0.3-0.3-0.3*-0.0+0.0+0.4
Canadiens vs Panthers-0.3-0.3-0.3*+0.1+0.1+0.4
Canadiens vs Bruins-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.0*+0.0+0.4
Canadiens vs Blue Jackets-0.3-0.3-0.3*+0.0*+0.1+0.4
Canadiens vs Flyers-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.0+0.4
Canadiens vs Devils-0.3-0.3-0.2*+0.1-0.0+0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
130-153100
129309-61000
128299-710000
1272910-610000
1262810-799010
1252811-69911
1242711-797110
1232712-696120
1222612-7933300
1212613-689551
1202513-785671
1192514-6799902
2413-87981002
1182414-7691314004
2515-57113133
1172415-6601817005
2314-8591718050
1162315-750212200700
2214-948212400700
1152316-63824271090
2215-8362527101000
1142317-5262631211300
2216-7252631311310
1132217-616263452015100
1122117-71024338318220
2016-9822349301931
1112118-6418311250214300
1102018-7213241671248500
1092019-61817201012312801
1081919-70510201121918121200
1071920-625181241421174400
1061820-7121411682220780100
1051821-60198742119131213
1041721-7006581171520183500
1031722-623911292321711110
1021622-713563212017172501
1011623-601521181321199102
1001523-704218524201514250
991524-6504317142516511
981424-71321532427121041
971425-6136322112317122
961426-5222178122520122
951326-63162413112411
941226-7277202720
931328-411224422
921127-7927271818
911431-0333333
901129-5206020
87-88100
63045-0100
Total:421316531943111100000000000