How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Capitals 3 Bruins 2 -5.9
-0.6
Devils 4 Bruins 3 -5.6
-0.6
Bruins 3 Canadiens 4 -5.6
-0.6
Bruins 4 Hurricanes 5 -5.5
-0.5
Lightning 6 Bruins 2 -5.5
-0.6
Bruins 3 Flyers 8 -5.5
-0.6
Bruins 2 Sabres 4 -5.3
-0.6
Blue Jackets 5 Bruins 2 -5.3
-0.5
Maple Leafs 6 Bruins 0 -5.3
-0.6
Sabres 3 Bruins 2 -5.2
-0.6
Bruins 2 Penguins 3 -5.2
-0.5
Canadiens 4 Bruins 0 -5.2
-0.5
Bruins 2 Devils 3 -5.2
-0.5
Bruins 1 Flames 5 -5.1
-0.5
Sharks 4 Bruins 3 -5.1
-0.5
Stars 3 Bruins 2 -5.1
-0.5
Bruins 2 Avalanche 4 -5.0
-0.5
Bruins 1 Wild 7 -4.9
-0.5
Bruins 3 Red Wings 4 -4.9
-0.5
Kings 5 Bruins 2 -4.8
-0.5
Bruins 5 Blues 4 (so)+4.5
+0.5
Islanders 1 Bruins 4 +4.5
+0.5
Bruins 3 Lightning 2 +4.5
+0.4
Bruins 2 Blackhawks 1 +4.3
+0.4
Penguins 0 Bruins 3 +4.2
+0.4
Devils 3 Bruins 6 +4.1
+0.4
Bruins 3 Thrashers 1 +4.1
+0.4
Canucks 0 Bruins 4 +4.0
+0.4
Bruins 5 Canucks 4 +3.8
+0.4
Bruins 3 Blue Jackets 0 +3.8
+0.4
Coyotes 3 Bruins 5 +3.8
+0.4
Predators 1 Bruins 4 +3.5
+0.4
Blues 2 Bruins 3 (so)+3.4
+0.4
Bruins 5 Oilers 1 +3.3
+0.4
Flyers 5 Bruins 6 (so)+3.0
+0.4
Avalanche 3 Bruins 2 (so)*-1.6
*-0.2
Maple Leafs 5 Blues 6 (so)*-1.1
Thrashers 3 Bruins 2 (ot)*-0.9
-0.1
Kings 8 Devils 1 +0.9
Blackhawks 4 Bruins 3 (ot)*-0.9
*-0.1
Devils 1 Blackhawks 2 *+0.6
Islanders 4 Ducks 3 (ot)*-0.6
Islanders 3 Canucks 2 (so)*-0.6
Coyotes 4 Penguins 5 (ot)*-0.5
Ducks 4 Rangers 3 (ot)*+0.5
Coyotes 3 Maple Leafs 1 *+0.4
+0.0
Bruins 1 Sharks 2 (ot)*-0.4
*-0.1
Avalanche 1 Thrashers 3 *-0.4
Penguins 3 Predators 4 *+0.4
Bruins 3 Predators 4 (so)*+0.3
*-0.0
Capitals 0 Maple Leafs 4 *+0.3
Penguins 4 Sharks 0 *-0.3
Thrashers 4 Penguins 5 *+0.3
Flyers 5 Blackhawks 3 *-0.2
Penguins 7 Devils 2 *+0.2
Hurricanes 5 Canadiens 2 *+0.2
Flyers 4 Panthers 1 *+0.2
Senators 3 Blues 2 -0.1
Sabres 0 Oilers 2 +0.1
Stars 1 Senators 2 -0.1
Senators 1 Lightning 4 +0.0
Canadiens 1 Kings 2 +0.0
Ducks 5 Senators 4 +0.0
Maple Leafs 5 Lightning 1 *-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Senators vs Bruins-2.2-0.8-1.2+2.2+1.6+1.9
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Bruins vs Senators+2.0+1.3+1.9-1.1-0.7-2.4
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.0*-0.0-0.3
Hurricanes vs Bruins-2.3-0.8*-1.0+1.8+1.7+1.9
-0.3-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Thrashers vs Bruins-2.3*-0.5*-0.4+1.0+1.3+1.9
-0.3*-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Bruins vs Lightning+1.8+2.0*+0.7-1.0-0.7-2.2
+0.2+0.2+0.1*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Bruins vs Islanders+1.4+2.1+1.7*-0.4*-0.3-2.1
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1*-0.0-0.3
Senators vs Bruins-2.2-0.9-1.2+1.5+1.5+2.0
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Hurricanes vs Bruins-2.2-0.9-1.4+1.9+1.8+1.9
-0.3-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Capitals vs Bruins-2.1*-0.6*-0.3*+0.7+2.1+1.6
-0.3-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Bruins vs Rangers+1.7+1.1+2.0*-0.3*-0.6-2.0
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1*-0.0-0.3
Bruins vs Senators+1.9+1.6+1.4-1.4-0.9-2.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1*-0.1-0.3
Bruins vs Hurricanes+1.9+1.3+1.1*-0.3-0.8-2.1
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0*-0.1-0.3
Bruins vs Penguins+1.9+1.0*+1.0*-0.9*-0.5-2.1
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.0*-0.1-0.3
Flyers vs Bruins-2.1-0.7*-0.6+1.6+1.9+1.6
-0.3-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Penguins vs Bruins-2.2-0.8*-0.5+1.6+1.3+1.8
-0.3*-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Bruins vs Flyers+1.8+1.3+1.5*-0.4-0.7-2.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0-0.1-0.3
Lightning vs Bruins-2.0-0.8-1.4+1.1+1.4+1.9
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3
Red Wings vs Bruins-2.1*-0.5*-0.1+1.9+1.6+1.5
-0.3*-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Bruins vs Ducks+1.3+1.8+2.0*-0.9*-0.4-1.9
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.0-0.3
Islanders vs Bruins-2.0*-0.3*-0.9+1.9+1.5+1.6
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Sabres vs Bruins-2.0-0.8*-0.4+1.2+1.9+1.5
-0.3*-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Wild vs Bruins-2.0*-0.4*-0.2+1.5+1.8+1.5
-0.3-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Bruins vs Maple Leafs+1.7+1.4+1.6*-0.4*-0.5-2.1
+0.3+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Bruins vs Capitals+1.7+1.5+1.3*-0.9-0.8-2.0
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0*-0.1-0.3
Bruins vs Thrashers+1.7+1.6+1.4*-0.8*-0.5-2.1
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1*-0.1-0.3
Flames vs Bruins-1.9-0.8*-0.7+1.9+1.2+1.6
-0.2*-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Bruins vs Maple Leafs+1.6+1.4+1.7*-0.4-0.7-2.0
+0.3+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Bruins vs Panthers+1.6+1.6*+1.0*-0.3*-0.4-2.1
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Canadiens vs Bruins-2.0*-0.6*+0.1+1.6+1.7+1.4
-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Bruins vs Sabres+1.6+1.8*+0.7*-1.0*-0.6-1.9
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1*-0.1-0.3
Rangers vs Bruins-2.0-0.7*-0.7*+1.0+1.7+1.6
-0.3*-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Ducks vs Bruins-1.9*-0.5*-0.8*+0.6+1.3+1.7
-0.3*-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Panthers vs Bruins-2.0*-0.3*-0.9+1.6+1.7+1.5
-0.3-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3
Maple Leafs vs Bruins-1.8*-0.6*-1.0+1.9+1.5+1.4
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Bruins vs Stars+1.5+0.9+1.8*+0.3*-0.4-1.9
+0.2+0.2+0.2*+0.0*-0.1-0.3
Oilers vs Bruins-2.0*-0.4*+0.0+1.2+1.6+1.4
-0.3*-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Rangers vs Bruins-2.0*-0.5*-0.3+1.6+1.6+1.4
-0.3-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Bruins finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
125450-0In88138
110-111In1003*
109356-4In141457147*
108357-3In50508*
107347-4In439439423*
106337-5In227512041*
105327-6In26392211254*
104328-5In1118383293120*
103318-699.4%1633401741163*
102319-599.222435271000259*
101309-696.611230361630413*
100299-790.7007223625720634*
992910-679.2021627341740878*
982911-566.917243524811,258*
972811-652.2031434331321,621*
962812-533.8017263724502,162*
952712-621.714173434902,707*
942612-712.30211304017103,291*
932613-66.0015244226203,990*
922513-72.803154235504,636*
912514-61.101103643915,259*
902414-70.40629481615,831*
892415-60.102215222303,279*
2314-80.10223502222,828*
882315-70.101154930506,367*
872316-60.00094438806,571*
862216-7Out0637441306,513*
852217-6Out0329481916,243*
842117-7Out0223482625,734*
832118-6Out1154635405,312*
822018-7Out0104141704,749*
812019-6Out0634491114,173*
801919-7Out0329501613,421*
791920-6Out120552222,848*
781820-7Out114523032,231*
771821-6Out09463871,798*
761721-7Out064042121,374*
751722-6Out033448151,000*
741622-7Out1245322721*
731623-6Out1195030507*
721523-7Out0154441331*
711423-8Out114247238*
701525-5Out23860155*
691425-6Out5286799*
681426-5Out2297056*
671225-8Out89224*
661226-7Out148629*
651227-6Out10014*
641228-5Out33673*
35-63Out10016*
Total:6.2%0000012371425241761100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Bruins 3 Canadiens 4 +1.2
Devils 4 Bruins 3 +1.2
Bruins 2 Sabres 4 +1.2
Capitals 3 Bruins 2 +1.2
Bruins 3 Flyers 8 +1.2
Sabres 3 Bruins 2 +1.1
Maple Leafs 6 Bruins 0 +1.1
Lightning 6 Bruins 2 +1.1
Sharks 4 Bruins 3 +1.1
Stars 3 Bruins 2 +1.1
Canadiens 4 Bruins 0 +1.1
Blue Jackets 5 Bruins 2 +1.1
Bruins 4 Hurricanes 5 +1.1
Bruins 2 Devils 3 +1.1
Bruins 1 Flames 5 +1.1
Bruins 2 Penguins 3 +1.1
Bruins 3 Red Wings 4 +1.1
Bruins 2 Avalanche 4 +1.1
Bruins 1 Wild 7 +1.0
Kings 5 Bruins 2 +1.0
Bruins 5 Blues 4 (so)-1.0
Islanders 1 Bruins 4 -0.9
Bruins 2 Blackhawks 1 -0.9
Bruins 3 Lightning 2 -0.9
Penguins 0 Bruins 3 -0.9
Devils 3 Bruins 6 -0.9
Canucks 0 Bruins 4 -0.8
Blues 2 Bruins 3 (so)-0.8
Bruins 5 Canucks 4 -0.8
Coyotes 3 Bruins 5 -0.8
Bruins 3 Blue Jackets 0 -0.8
Flyers 5 Bruins 6 (so)-0.8
Bruins 3 Thrashers 1 -0.8
Predators 1 Bruins 4 -0.8
Bruins 5 Oilers 1 -0.8
Avalanche 3 Bruins 2 (so)*+0.3
Canucks 5 Blues 4 (so)*-0.2
Capitals 2 Stars 1 (so)+0.2
Coyotes 5 Ducks 6 (so)+0.2
Blackhawks 4 Bruins 3 (ot)+0.2
Thrashers 5 Canadiens 4 (so)*+0.2
Maple Leafs 5 Blues 6 (so)*+0.2
Canadiens 6 Penguins 5 (so)*+0.2
Maple Leafs 4 Blue Jackets 3 (so)*-0.2
Stars 2 Red Wings 3 (ot)+0.2
Rangers 5 Kings 4 (ot)*+0.2
Bruins 1 Sharks 2 (ot)*+0.1
Thrashers 3 Bruins 2 (ot)*+0.1
Maple Leafs 5 Capitals 8 -0.1
Blackhawks 4 Senators 2 -0.1
Maple Leafs 4 Hurricanes 3 (so)*+0.1
Sharks 0 Capitals 1 +0.1
Ducks 5 Senators 4 -0.1
Wild 3 Capitals 2 -0.1
Canadiens 1 Kings 2 -0.1
Bruins 3 Predators 4 (so)*+0.1
Ducks 2 Predators 0 *+0.1
Kings 3 Islanders 1 -0.0
Maple Leafs 5 Coyotes 2 *+0.0
Maple Leafs 3 Panthers 2 *-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Bruins vs Panthers-0.5-0.6-0.4+0.3*+0.2+0.7
Hurricanes vs Bruins+0.7*+0.2*+0.1-0.6-0.5-0.5
Bruins vs Maple Leafs-0.5-0.5-0.5*+0.2+0.1+0.7
Panthers vs Bruins+0.7*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
Bruins vs Senators-0.5-0.5-0.5*+0.0*+0.1+0.7
Lightning vs Bruins+0.6*+0.2+0.1-0.5-0.4-0.6
Bruins vs Maple Leafs-0.5-0.4-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.7
Bruins vs Coyotes-0.5-0.5-0.3*+0.1+0.2+0.7
Islanders vs Bruins+0.7*+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5
Bruins vs Panthers-0.5-0.5-0.4*+0.1*+0.1+0.7
Panthers vs Bruins+0.7*+0.1*+0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5
Bruins vs Islanders-0.5-0.4-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Senators vs Bruins+0.6+0.2+0.1-0.5-0.4-0.5
Flames vs Bruins+0.6*+0.2*+0.2-0.4-0.4-0.5
Bruins vs Lightning-0.5-0.5-0.4+0.2*+0.1+0.6
Red Wings vs Bruins+0.7*+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5
Maple Leafs vs Bruins+0.7*+0.1+0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5
Bruins vs Hurricanes-0.5-0.5-0.5*+0.1+0.1+0.7
Bruins vs Flyers-0.5-0.4-0.4*+0.1*+0.2+0.6
Bruins vs Islanders-0.5-0.5-0.4*+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Bruins vs Sabres-0.5-0.5-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Thrashers vs Bruins+0.7*-0.0*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.5
Bruins vs Senators-0.5-0.5-0.4*+0.2*+0.2+0.6
Flyers vs Bruins+0.6+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
Capitals vs Bruins+0.6+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
Rangers vs Bruins+0.6*+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
Bruins vs Devils-0.5-0.4-0.4*+0.0*+0.1+0.6
Bruins vs Rangers-0.5-0.4-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Bruins vs Kings-0.5-0.4-0.4*+0.2*+0.0+0.6
Bruins vs Thrashers-0.5-0.4-0.5*+0.2*+0.1+0.6
Penguins vs Bruins+0.6*+0.1*+0.0-0.5-0.5-0.5
Wild vs Bruins+0.6+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5
Bruins vs Ducks-0.5-0.5-0.5+0.2+0.1+0.6
Bruins vs Penguins-0.5-0.4-0.4*+0.0+0.1+0.6
Bruins vs Capitals-0.5-0.5-0.4*+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Rangers vs Bruins+0.6+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5
Senators vs Bruins+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.5
Canadiens vs Bruins+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5
Oilers vs Bruins+0.6*+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.4-0.5
Ducks vs Bruins+0.6+0.1*+0.1-0.3-0.5-0.5
Bruins vs Stars-0.5-0.4-0.5-0.0*+0.1+0.6

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
125450-08813
110-111100
109356-41414431414
108357-3252550
107347-441326301394
106337-52224341720
105327-64222613202112
104328-511216152325793
103318-616122125151741
102319-5232115202351000
101309-61112823251115130
100299-700074182016233720
992910-600211510172681551
982911-5107518191622920
972811-600321312222517510
962812-5010752022251441
952712-61421514272111410
942612-7021108212720921
932613-601053132726176100
922513-70031617282514410
912514-601031022282211300
902414-7001414262819710
892415-600161830271330
882315-70002102431228200
872316-600151628311540
862216-7028223224920
852217-6141530321640
2116-8131530301740
842117-7018233325810
832118-6031432321530
822018-7019253623510
812019-60141735311110
801919-7021129381630
791920-60522402660
781820-702173733101
771821-60183240182
761721-7152638256
751722-631742308
741622-7110373715
731623-606314418
721523-703224233
711423-82184239
701525-594546
691425-6102664
681426-542968
671225-81388
661226-71486
651227-6100
641228-53367
35-63100
Total:000000000011112235679111211119521