How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Sabres 3 Islanders 1 -5.7
-0.6
Islanders 1 Bruins 4 -5.6
-0.6
Maple Leafs 3 Islanders 2 -5.6
-0.6
Islanders 3 Penguins 4 -5.6
-0.6
Penguins 5 Islanders 1 -5.5
-0.6
Islanders 2 Kings 3 -5.5
-0.5
Islanders 4 Canadiens 5 -5.5
-0.6
Lightning 7 Islanders 3 -5.5
-0.6
Panthers 4 Islanders 3 -5.4
-0.6
Islanders 2 Senators 5 -5.3
-0.6
Red Wings 6 Islanders 1 -5.2
-0.5
Islanders 2 Stars 3 -5.2
-0.5
Canadiens 4 Islanders 2 -5.2
-0.5
Islanders 1 Sabres 4 -5.2
-0.5
Islanders 1 Senators 3 -5.2
-0.5
Panthers 2 Islanders 1 -5.2
-0.5
Islanders 2 Hurricanes 4 -5.2
-0.5
Wild 3 Islanders 2 -5.2
-0.5
Oilers 3 Islanders 1 -5.2
-0.5
Kings 3 Islanders 1 -5.1
-0.5
Avalanche 4 Islanders 0 -5.1
-0.5
Islanders 2 Penguins 4 -5.1
-0.5
Predators 3 Islanders 2 -5.0
-0.5
Flames 2 Islanders 1 -5.0
-0.5
Senators 3 Islanders 1 -5.0
-0.5
Coyotes 7 Islanders 5 -4.8
-0.5
Islanders 4 Red Wings 5 -4.7
-0.5
Islanders 3 Wild 2 +4.2
+0.4
Islanders 4 Maple Leafs 2 +4.1
+0.4
Capitals 4 Islanders 5 +4.1
+0.4
Islanders 2 Thrashers 1 +4.0
+0.4
Islanders 3 Canucks 2 (so)+4.0
+0.3
Islanders 4 Ducks 3 (ot)+3.7
+0.4
Islanders 5 Capitals 3 +3.6
+0.4
Islanders 4 Capitals 3 (ot)+3.5
+0.4
Sabres 2 Blackhawks 3 (so)*-1.3
Islanders 4 Sabres 5 (ot)*-1.2
*-0.1
Panthers 3 Blackhawks 7 +0.9
Blue Jackets 6 Hurricanes 3 +0.8
Penguins 3 Predators 4 +0.8
+0.1
Blue Jackets 3 Panthers 1 +0.8
Bruins 1 Flames 5 +0.7
Blue Jackets 4 Capitals 5 *-0.7
Maple Leafs 0 Kings 3 *+0.7
Senators 4 Islanders 3 (ot)*-0.6
*-0.1
Flyers 2 Stars 5 *+0.6
Blackhawks 2 Rangers 3 *-0.6
*-0.1
Blues 4 Lightning 3 (ot)*-0.4
Sabres 0 Oilers 2 *+0.4
Thrashers 3 Sabres 2 (ot)*+0.4
Sabres 5 Thrashers 1 *+0.3
Maple Leafs 0 Devils 1 *+0.2
Blue Jackets 5 Islanders 4 (so)*-0.2
*-0.0
Islanders 3 Devils 4 (so)*+0.2
*+0.0
Ducks 5 Coyotes 2 *+0.2
Blue Jackets 3 Devils 4 (ot)-0.1
Red Wings 6 Penguins 5 (so)*+0.1
Penguins 3 Blackhawks 1 *-0.0
Lightning 3 Flyers 4 -0.0
Rangers 4 Maple Leafs 0 -0.0
Senators 1 Wild 4 *+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Islanders vs Predators+0.0*-0.0*Out*-0.0*-0.0Out
+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Penguins vs Islanders-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Islanders vs Lightning+0.0*+0.0*+0.0*-0.0*-0.0Out
+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.1
Thrashers vs IslandersOut*-0.0*Out*+0.0*-0.0+0.0
-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Devils vs Islanders-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.2
Islanders vs Canadiens+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Bruins vs Islanders-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Canadiens vs Islanders-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Capitals vs Islanders-0.1*-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Hurricanes vs Islanders-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Islanders vs Blackhawks+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Islanders vs Devils+0.2+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.1-0.2
Islanders vs Flames+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Islanders vs Maple Leafs+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.2
Islanders vs Rangers+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Islanders vs Thrashers+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Thrashers vs Islanders-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Devils vs Islanders-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.2
Islanders vs Panthers+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.0-0.1
Islanders vs Panthers+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Islanders vs Bruins+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.1
Bruins vs Islanders-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Rangers vs Islanders-0.1*-0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Canucks vs Islanders-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Sharks vs Islanders-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Lightning vs Islanders-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Islanders vs Avalanche+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Islanders vs Rangers+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Rangers vs Islanders-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Flyers vs Islanders-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Islanders vs Lightning+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.1
Ducks vs Islanders-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Islanders vs Oilers+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Islanders vs Blue Jackets+0.1+0.1+0.1*+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Islanders vs Blues+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Stars vs Islanders-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Islanders vs Flyers+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Islanders vs Coyotes+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Islanders vs Sharks+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Islanders vs Hurricanes+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Islanders finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
112450-0In2513638
97377-166.7%3333333*
96356-466.76717176*
95346-538.583131151513*
94347-414.351024382421*
93337-53.74264422427*
92327-66.16144729566*
91317-72.0283140172100*
90318-61.2142149213173*
89319-5Out315463151239*
88309-6Out111354211424*
873010-5Out062941203621*
862910-6Out042341266857*
852911-5Out116413291,208*
842811-6Out01034411501,679*
832711-7Out0630432012,136*
822712-6Out0321462812,832*
812612-7Out216433733,339*
802613-6Out110394554,004*
792513-7Out06345284,708*
782514-6Out032658123,163*
2615-4Out032659112,093*
772414-7Out022061185,727*
762415-6Out11560233,668*
2516-4Out11462232,496*
752315-7Out11158303,830*
2214-9Out0959312,571*
742316-6Out0755383,850*
2417-4Out0755382,532*
732216-7Out0451453,834*
2115-9Out0450462,616*
722217-6Out0245536,163*
712117-7Out239593,433*
2016-9Out237612,348*
702118-6Out131683,163*
2219-4Out134652,114*
692018-7Out026744,717*
682019-6Out021794,059*
671919-7Out016843,503*
661920-6Out011892,808*
651820-7Out09912,339*
641821-6Out7931,819*
631721-7Out4961,386*
621722-6Out4961,009*
611622-7Out397734*
601623-6Out298534*
591624-5Out199372*
581524-6Out100241*
571424-7Out199158*
22-56Out100256*
Total:0.0%000000015133842100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Penguins 5 Islanders 1 +1.2
Maple Leafs 3 Islanders 2 +1.2
Islanders 3 Penguins 4 +1.2
Sabres 3 Islanders 1 +1.2
Islanders 1 Bruins 4 +1.2
Islanders 2 Senators 5 +1.2
Islanders 2 Kings 3 +1.1
Lightning 7 Islanders 3 +1.1
Red Wings 6 Islanders 1 +1.1
Panthers 4 Islanders 3 +1.1
Islanders 4 Canadiens 5 +1.1
Oilers 3 Islanders 1 +1.1
Wild 3 Islanders 2 +1.1
Panthers 2 Islanders 1 +1.1
Islanders 2 Penguins 4 +1.1
Avalanche 4 Islanders 0 +1.1
Canadiens 4 Islanders 2 +1.1
Flames 2 Islanders 1 +1.1
Predators 3 Islanders 2 +1.1
Kings 3 Islanders 1 +1.1
Islanders 1 Sabres 4 +1.1
Islanders 1 Senators 3 +1.1
Islanders 4 Red Wings 5 +1.1
Islanders 2 Stars 3 +1.1
Coyotes 7 Islanders 5 +1.0
Senators 3 Islanders 1 +1.0
Islanders 2 Hurricanes 4 +1.0
Islanders 3 Wild 2 -0.9
Capitals 4 Islanders 5 -0.8
Islanders 2 Thrashers 1 -0.8
Islanders 4 Ducks 3 (ot)-0.8
Islanders 4 Maple Leafs 2 -0.8
Islanders 5 Capitals 3 -0.7
Islanders 4 Capitals 3 (ot)-0.7
Islanders 3 Canucks 2 (so)-0.7
Red Wings 3 Coyotes 2 (so)*-0.3
Canadiens 6 Penguins 5 (so)*+0.3
Islanders 4 Sabres 5 (ot)*+0.2
Blue Jackets 3 Devils 4 (ot)*+0.2
Rangers 5 Kings 4 (ot)+0.2
Capitals 4 Coyotes 5 (ot)*-0.2
Flyers 5 Bruins 6 (so)*+0.2
Red Wings 6 Penguins 5 (so)*-0.2
Avalanche 5 Ducks 4 (ot)*+0.2
Maple Leafs 4 Canucks 3 (ot)-0.2
Senators 4 Islanders 3 (ot)*+0.2
Flyers 2 Stars 5 -0.1
Blue Jackets 5 Islanders 4 (so)*+0.1
Sabres 5 Penguins 1 +0.1
Penguins 3 Blackhawks 1 *+0.1
Islanders 3 Devils 4 (so)*-0.1
Flyers 6 Hurricanes 3 +0.1
Devils 1 Kings 2 -0.0
Rangers 4 Maple Leafs 0 +0.0
Capitals 0 Penguins 1 *-0.0
Kings 2 Blues 3 *+0.0
Penguins 3 Avalanche 2 *+0.0
Hurricanes 4 Canucks 1 *-0.0
Panthers 4 Ducks 1 *+0.0
Flyers 5 Capitals 4 (ot)*+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Islanders vs Devils-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.0+0.1+0.3
Devils vs Islanders+0.3+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Devils vs Islanders+0.3+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Islanders vs Avalanche-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.3
Islanders vs Maple Leafs-0.2-0.1-0.2*+0.0+0.1+0.3
Islanders vs Predators-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.1+0.1+0.3
Canucks vs Islanders+0.3*+0.0+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Islanders vs Panthers-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.1+0.1+0.3
Sharks vs Islanders+0.2*+0.1*+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Islanders vs Blackhawks-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.0*+0.0+0.2
Islanders vs Bruins-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.0+0.0+0.3
Rangers vs Islanders+0.3*+0.0*-0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Bruins vs Islanders+0.2*+0.0*+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Islanders vs Panthers-0.2-0.2-0.1*+0.1*+0.0+0.2
Stars vs Islanders+0.2*+0.1*+0.1-0.2-0.1-0.2
Islanders vs Rangers-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.1+0.0+0.2
Bruins vs Islanders+0.3+0.1*+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Islanders vs Thrashers-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.0*+0.0+0.2
Capitals vs Islanders+0.2*+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Islanders vs Lightning-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.0*+0.0+0.2
Islanders vs Canadiens-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.1*+0.0+0.2
Penguins vs Islanders+0.2*+0.1+0.0-0.1-0.2-0.2
Islanders vs Rangers-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.1*+0.0+0.2
Rangers vs Islanders+0.2*+0.1*+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Islanders vs Coyotes-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.0*+0.0+0.2
Islanders vs Sharks-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.1*+0.0+0.2
Canadiens vs Islanders+0.2*+0.0*+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Flyers vs Islanders+0.2*+0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.2-0.2
Hurricanes vs Islanders+0.2+0.1*+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Islanders vs Blue Jackets-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.0*+0.0+0.2
Lightning vs Islanders+0.2*+0.1*+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Islanders vs Oilers-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.1*+0.0+0.2
Islanders vs Lightning-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.0*+0.0+0.2
Islanders vs Blues-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.0*+0.1+0.2
Ducks vs Islanders+0.2*+0.0*+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Islanders vs Flyers-0.2-0.2-0.1*+0.1*+0.0+0.2
Islanders vs Flames-0.2-0.2-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.2
Thrashers vs Islanders+0.2*+0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.2-0.2
Blues vs Islanders+0.2*+0.1*+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2
Islanders vs Flyers-0.2-0.2-0.2*+0.0*+0.0+0.2
Hurricanes vs Islanders+0.2*+0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.2-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
112450-0251363
97377-1333333
96356-417501717
95346-583115151588
94347-4510529192410
93337-544222626774
92327-6681727291122
91317-722132128141451
90318-61592033201211
89319-502514312317610
88309-629192925123
873010-50513223220630
862910-601517272816500
852911-5029243222920
842811-60141529301640
832711-70029223324101
822712-60141432321620
812612-702825362450
802613-61417363391
792513-7002113039162
782514-60052443234
772414-7031642326
2313-9021643316
762415-60111383911
2314-8111383910
752315-717324516
2214-906334418
742316-603264823
2215-803274623
732216-71185030
2317-502194930
722217-61134938
2318-41144739
712117-70094446
2016-9094150
702118-6063955
692018-7033264
682019-622672
671919-712078
661920-611585
651820-701288
641821-601090
631721-7595
621722-60496
611622-7397
601623-6397
591624-5199
581524-60100
571424-7199
22-56100
Total:000000000000123510192833