How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Wild 0 Coyotes 3 -5.5
-0.6
Wild 4 Ducks 5 -5.4
-0.5
Predators 3 Wild 2 -5.4
-0.6
Ducks 5 Wild 3 -5.4
-0.5
Blues 4 Wild 1 -5.4
-0.6
Wild 4 Coyotes 5 -5.3
-0.5
Wild 3 Stars 4 -5.3
-0.6
Wild 1 Blackhawks 3 -5.2
-0.5
Wild 3 Blues 5 -5.2
-0.5
Lightning 4 Wild 3 -5.0
-0.5
Rangers 5 Wild 3 -5.0
-0.5
Capitals 2 Wild 3 (so)+4.8
*+0.4
Islanders 3 Wild 2 -4.7
-0.5
Wild 5 Red Wings 1 +4.4
+0.4
Wild 5 Avalanche 3 +4.3
+0.5
Wild 4 Flames 2 +4.3
+0.5
Wild 3 Canucks 0 +4.3
+0.5
Wild 4 Sharks 3 +4.2
+0.4
Stars 2 Wild 4 +4.2
+0.4
Wild 3 Stars 2 +4.2
+0.4
Senators 1 Wild 4 +4.1
+0.4
Wild 4 Canucks 3 +4.0
+0.4
Wild 7 Blue Jackets 3 +4.0
+0.4
Predators 3 Wild 5 +3.9
+0.4
Wild 3 Blues 2 (ot)+3.9
+0.4
Sharks 3 Wild 4 +3.9
+0.4
Wild 3 Devils 1 +3.8
+0.4
Flyers 4 Wild 5 (ot)+3.8
+0.4
Penguins 2 Wild 4 +3.7
+0.4
Wild 3 Capitals 2 +3.7
+0.4
Wild 3 Islanders 2 +3.6
+0.4
Devils 1 Wild 2 +3.6
+0.4
Bruins 1 Wild 7 +3.6
+0.4
Thrashers 1 Wild 3 +3.6
+0.4
Wild 2 Penguins 1 +3.6
+0.4
Wild 3 Hurricanes 0 +3.5
+0.4
Canadiens 1 Wild 4 +3.5
+0.4
Stars 2 Rangers 1 (so)-2.3
-0.2
Penguins 5 Flames 2 +1.2
Avalanche 3 Bruins 2 (so)*-1.1
Blackhawks 8 Wild 7 (so)*-0.9
*-0.0
Sabres 4 Avalanche 0 +0.9
Penguins 3 Blackhawks 1 +0.8
Senators 6 Flames 4 +0.8
+0.1
Penguins 3 Red Wings 1 +0.8
Blue Jackets 3 Thrashers 5 *+0.7
Avalanche 1 Thrashers 3 *+0.7
Panthers 6 Coyotes 0 *+0.6
Red Wings 6 Islanders 1 *-0.4
Panthers 3 Stars 2 *+0.4
Red Wings 5 Thrashers 0 *-0.4
Panthers 3 Blackhawks 7 *-0.3
Avalanche 2 Blues 1 *-0.3
Penguins 3 Coyotes 1 *+0.3
Blue Jackets 6 Blues 4 *-0.3
Flyers 2 Thrashers 0 *-0.2
Lightning 0 Flyers 4 *-0.2
Avalanche 1 Rangers 2 (so)*+0.0
Blues 2 Capitals 3 (so)*-0.1
Flames 0 Predators 4 +0.1
Canucks 0 Bruins 4 +0.1
Red Wings 3 Oilers 4 (so)*+0.1
Canucks 5 Maple Leafs 3 -0.1
Avalanche 3 Red Wings 4 +0.1
Avalanche 4 Islanders 0 -0.0
Oilers 1 Ducks 6 +0.0
Oilers 3 Stars 1 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wild vs Sharks+1.6+1.4+1.6*-0.2*-0.5-2.0
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Blue Jackets vs Wild-1.9*-0.4*+0.4+0.9+0.9+1.6
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0*+0.2+0.3+0.3
Oilers vs Wild-1.9*+0.1*+0.1+1.7+1.2+1.3
-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Red Wings vs Wild-2.0*-0.0*+0.2+1.0+1.2+1.5
-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
Wild vs Blue Jackets+1.5+1.2+1.4*-0.9*-0.1-1.9
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Wild vs Ducks+1.2+0.9+1.7*+0.2*+0.3-1.7
+0.3+0.2+0.3*-0.0-0.0-0.4
Wild vs Senators+1.3+1.5+1.5*+0.2*-0.0-1.9
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Wild vs Flames+1.5+0.9+1.3*+0.4*-0.2-1.9
+0.3+0.2+0.3*+0.0-0.0-0.4
Flames vs Wild-1.9*-0.2*-0.4+1.4+1.1+1.5
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.2+0.3
Maple Leafs vs Wild-1.8*+0.1*+0.8+1.5+1.3+1.1
-0.4*-0.0*+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.2
Coyotes vs Wild-1.9*-0.2*-0.2+1.4+1.4+1.4
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
Oilers vs Wild-1.8*-0.4*+0.7+1.6+1.0+1.3
-0.5-0.2-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Sharks vs Wild-1.9*-0.3*-0.1+1.3+1.2+1.5
-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.3
Wild vs Predators+1.3+1.4+1.2*+0.3*+0.1-1.9
+0.3+0.2+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.4
Kings vs Wild-1.8*-0.0*-0.1+1.5+1.2+1.3
-0.4-0.0*+0.0+0.3+0.2+0.3
Wild vs Flyers+1.4+1.0+1.4*-0.6*+0.2-1.9
+0.3+0.2+0.3*-0.0*+0.0-0.4
Wild vs Red Wings+1.3+1.2+1.6-1.0*-0.1-1.7
+0.3+0.2+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Wild vs Oilers+1.4+1.2+1.3*+0.0*+0.0-1.9
+0.4+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.5
Flames vs Wild-1.9*-0.3*+0.8+1.2+1.1+1.4
-0.4*-0.1*+0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
Ducks vs Wild-1.7*+0.2*-0.7+1.5+1.1+1.2
-0.4-0.0-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Wild vs Bruins+1.3+1.1+1.5*-0.3*-0.0-1.8
+0.3+0.2+0.3*-0.0-0.0-0.4
Red Wings vs Wild-1.8*-0.1*-0.2+1.5+1.0+1.4
-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Wild vs Avalanche+1.2+1.4+0.9*+0.2*-0.1-1.8
+0.3+0.3+0.2*+0.0*-0.0-0.4
Canucks vs Wild-1.8*-0.2*-0.4+1.3+1.3+1.4
-0.4-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Stars vs Wild-1.7*-0.4*-0.3+1.1+1.0+1.4
-0.4*-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3
Wild vs Kings+1.4+0.9+1.3*+0.0*-0.2-1.8
+0.3+0.2+0.3*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Blackhawks vs Wild-1.8*-0.3*-0.2+1.2+1.3+1.3
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Blues vs Wild-1.8*+0.1*+0.1+1.3+1.2+1.2
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Wild vs Kings+1.3+1.2+1.3*-0.3*-0.3-1.7
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.4
Wild vs Sabres+1.1+1.3+1.0*-0.2*+0.3-1.7
+0.2+0.3+0.2*-0.0*+0.0-0.4
Wild vs Predators+1.1+1.3+1.1*+0.5*-0.3-1.7
+0.3+0.3+0.3*+0.0*-0.0-0.4
Kings vs Wild-1.6-0.7*+0.2+1.3+0.9+1.4
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3
Wild vs Oilers+1.2+1.1*+0.9*-0.1*+0.2-1.7
+0.4+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.5
Wild vs Maple Leafs+1.2+0.9+1.2*-0.1*-0.1-1.6
+0.3+0.2+0.3*+0.0*-0.1-0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Wild finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
124-147In100362*
123329-6In991248*
122319-7In9910385*
1213110-6In982497*
1203010-7In9540672*
1193011-6In93611,049*
1183012-5In908011,476*
1172912-6In8512021,804*
1162812-7In7818032,446*
1152813-6In70241502,836*
1142713-7In63301603,572*
1132714-6In51373904,106*
1122614-7In394451114,786*
1112615-6In3048713205,421*
1102515-7In20501116305,705*
1092516-6In12501418516,048*
1082416-7In74518199206,461*
1072417-6In338241813403,191*
2316-8In336241814403,096*
1062317-7In2302716187103,414*
2418-5In128281718612,915*
1052318-6In02229142112202,713*
2217-8In1212913221223,330*
1042218-7100.0%015281024185005,628*
1032118-899.90928622249104,900*
1022119-799.842631829164004,488*
1012019-898.932211130248103,920*
1002020-796.4118082530153003,317*
992021-691.1014041733248102,795*
981921-782.1090111303115302,159*
971922-666.407062032257201,718*
961822-749.84212313115301,282*
951722-831.0216223624811,004*
941723-721.0114163130152710*
931724-611.4111023352461498*
921624-74.0041432321621376*
911625-61.7262739206241*
901626-5Out620372891188*
891526-6Out262638191090*
881527-5Out8313720359*
871326-8Out1619551031*
861327-7Out922482223*
851328-6Out838312313*
841228-7Out2538388*
831128-8Out33673*
821129-7Out2060205*
811231-4Out1001
801232-3Out1001
791031-6Out1001
53047-0Out1008
Total:95.2%202515998642110000100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Wild 0 Coyotes 3 +1.2
Blues 4 Wild 1 +1.1
Wild 3 Stars 4 +1.1
Predators 3 Wild 2 +1.1
Wild 4 Coyotes 5 +1.1
Ducks 5 Wild 3 +1.1
Wild 1 Blackhawks 3 +1.1
Wild 4 Ducks 5 +1.1
Rangers 5 Wild 3 +1.1
Wild 3 Blues 5 +1.1
Lightning 4 Wild 3 +1.1
Islanders 3 Wild 2 +1.0
Wild 5 Avalanche 3 -0.9
Wild 3 Canucks 0 -0.9
Wild 4 Flames 2 -0.9
Wild 4 Canucks 3 -0.9
Wild 5 Red Wings 1 -0.9
Stars 2 Wild 4 -0.9
Senators 1 Wild 4 -0.8
Wild 3 Blues 2 (ot)-0.8
Capitals 2 Wild 3 (so)-0.8
Wild 3 Devils 1 -0.8
Wild 4 Sharks 3 -0.8
Wild 3 Stars 2 -0.8
Penguins 2 Wild 4 -0.8
Thrashers 1 Wild 3 -0.8
Predators 3 Wild 5 -0.8
Wild 3 Capitals 2 -0.8
Wild 7 Blue Jackets 3 -0.8
Flyers 4 Wild 5 (ot)-0.8
Sharks 3 Wild 4 -0.8
Bruins 1 Wild 7 -0.8
Canadiens 1 Wild 4 -0.8
Wild 2 Penguins 1 -0.8
Devils 1 Wild 2 -0.8
Wild 3 Hurricanes 0 -0.8
Wild 3 Islanders 2 -0.8
Stars 2 Rangers 1 (so)+0.4
Canucks 2 Devils 3 (so)-0.3
Rangers 3 Flames 2 (so)+0.3
Bruins 3 Predators 4 (so)-0.3
Thrashers 5 Canadiens 4 (so)*+0.2
Avalanche 3 Blue Jackets 4 (so)*+0.2
Islanders 3 Canucks 2 (so)*-0.2
Flyers 5 Bruins 6 (so)*+0.2
Avalanche 3 Bruins 2 (so)+0.2
Hurricanes 4 Oilers 5 (so)*+0.2
Penguins 5 Flames 2 -0.2
Flames 0 Predators 4 -0.2
Senators 6 Flames 4 -0.1
Thrashers 5 Oilers 3 -0.1
Oilers 4 Lightning 3 (so)*+0.1
Avalanche 3 Capitals 4 -0.1
Flyers 2 Flames 0 -0.1
Avalanche 2 Blues 1 +0.1
Oilers 1 Ducks 6 -0.1
Penguins 3 Coyotes 1 *-0.0
Maple Leafs 5 Lightning 1 *+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wild vs Oilers-0.8-0.6-0.7+0.2+0.3+0.9
Oilers vs Wild+0.9+0.3+0.2-0.6-0.5-0.8
Oilers vs Wild+0.9+0.2+0.3-0.6-0.6-0.8
Wild vs Oilers-0.7-0.6-0.5+0.3+0.2+0.9
Wild vs Flyers-0.5-0.5-0.6*+0.1*+0.0+0.8
Wild vs Kings-0.6-0.5-0.6*+0.1+0.1+0.8
Kings vs Wild+0.8+0.1*-0.0-0.5-0.5-0.6
Wild vs Ducks-0.6-0.5-0.6*+0.1+0.1+0.8
Wild vs Senators-0.6-0.6-0.5+0.1*+0.1+0.8
Wild vs Kings-0.6-0.6-0.6*+0.1+0.2+0.8
Flames vs Wild+0.7*+0.1*+0.2-0.6-0.5-0.5
Wild vs Flames-0.6-0.5-0.5*-0.0+0.1+0.8
Wild vs Maple Leafs-0.5-0.5-0.6*-0.0*+0.1+0.7
Stars vs Wild+0.7*+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.6
Coyotes vs Wild+0.7+0.2*+0.0-0.5-0.6-0.5
Blues vs Wild+0.8+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.6
Wild vs Sharks-0.6-0.5-0.5*+0.0*+0.1+0.7
Red Wings vs Wild+0.8+0.0+0.0-0.5-0.5-0.5
Sharks vs Wild+0.7*+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.6
Wild vs Red Wings-0.6-0.5-0.6+0.2*+0.0+0.7
Flames vs Wild+0.7*+0.1*-0.0-0.5-0.6-0.5
Maple Leafs vs Wild+0.7*+0.0+0.0-0.6-0.5-0.5
Canucks vs Wild+0.7*+0.1*-0.0-0.6-0.6-0.5
Wild vs Avalanche-0.5-0.6-0.3*-0.0*+0.0+0.7
Ducks vs Wild+0.7+0.1+0.2-0.5-0.5-0.6
Wild vs Blue Jackets-0.5-0.5-0.6*+0.2*+0.0+0.7
Wild vs Predators-0.6-0.5*-0.4*+0.1*+0.1+0.7
Kings vs Wild+0.7+0.2*+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.6
Blue Jackets vs Wild+0.7+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.6
Red Wings vs Wild+0.7*+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.5-0.5
Blackhawks vs Wild+0.7*+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.6
Wild vs Rangers-0.6-0.5-0.4*+0.1+0.1+0.7
Wild vs Predators-0.5-0.5-0.5*-0.0*+0.1+0.7
Wild vs Sabres-0.5-0.6-0.4*+0.0*-0.0+0.7
Wild vs Bruins-0.5-0.4-0.5*+0.1+0.1+0.7
Sabres vs Wild+0.7*+0.1*+0.0-0.5-0.5-0.5
Wild vs Canadiens-0.6-0.4*-0.4+0.1+0.1+0.7
Panthers vs Wild+0.7+0.0*+0.1-0.6-0.5-0.5
Wild vs Panthers-0.5-0.5-0.6*+0.2*+0.1+0.7
Wild vs Lightning-0.5-0.5-0.5*+0.1*+0.0+0.7
Avalanche vs Wild+0.7*+0.2+0.2-0.5-0.6-0.5
Blue Jackets vs Wild+0.7*+0.1*+0.0-0.5-0.5-0.5
Coyotes vs Wild+0.7*+0.1+0.2-0.5-0.5-0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
128-147100
127358-4973
126348-5955
125338-6964
124328-79010
123329-687121
122319-7811810
1213110-679192
1203010-76926400
1193011-66033611
1183012-555368001
1172912-6424411102
1162812-73147171030
1152813-622492031500
1142713-715482471500
1132714-6843251230810
1122614-73362519509210
1112615-622822266011320
1102515-70201832101115300
1092516-60121337132108501
1082416-70773815491081200
1072417-63433186612112400
1062317-7212717114131356010
1052318-600211514211121011120
1042218-7001511171910141534000
1032118-8009819066161779010
1022119-74521331516131424000
1012019-83319111011191867010
1002020-711160075201712132300
992021-601130032151320186720
981921-70090101162317141341
971922-6070062181517209410
961822-74211292221188200
951722-82106319182518710
941723-711041141120261561
931724-6110961823261140
921624-704272326221331
911625-621211322618621
901626-51111428281341
891526-6141434192231
881527-522193124158
871326-8162939133
861327-744174313134
851328-688233823
841228-7385013
831229-66733
821129-740202020
811231-4100
801232-3100
791031-6100
53047-0100
Total:6148168745444332212111000000000