How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Panthers 1 Lightning 5 -5.5
-0.6
Thrashers 5 Panthers 3 -5.5
-0.6
Panthers 1 Senators 3 -5.5
-0.6
Senators 5 Panthers 3 -5.5
-0.5
Capitals 4 Panthers 1 -5.4
-0.6
Penguins 2 Panthers 0 -5.4
-0.5
Blue Jackets 3 Panthers 1 -5.3
-0.6
Flyers 4 Panthers 1 -5.3
-0.5
Panthers 1 Capitals 2 -5.3
-0.6
Ducks 4 Panthers 1 -5.3
-0.5
Coyotes 2 Panthers 1 -5.2
-0.5
Maple Leafs 3 Panthers 2 -5.2
-0.5
Sabres 4 Panthers 0 -5.2
-0.5
Lightning 3 Panthers 0 -5.1
-0.6
Kings 3 Panthers 1 -5.1
-0.5
Avalanche 5 Panthers 4 -5.0
-0.5
Stars 7 Panthers 3 -5.0
-0.5
Canadiens 4 Panthers 2 -5.0
-0.5
Panthers 0 Canadiens 3 -5.0
-0.5
Thrashers 7 Panthers 5 -5.0
-0.5
Predators 3 Panthers 1 -4.9
-0.5
Oilers 5 Panthers 3 -4.8
-0.5
Panthers 3 Blackhawks 7 -4.7
-0.5
Panthers 4 Predators 6 -4.7
-0.5
Panthers 3 Sharks 2 (ot)+4.7
+0.4
Panthers 5 Rangers 2 +4.2
+0.4
Panthers 3 Devils 1 +4.2
+0.4
Panthers 2 Penguins 1 +4.1
+0.4
Panthers 2 Islanders 1 +4.0
+0.4
Panthers 4 Islanders 3 +4.0
+0.4
Devils 2 Panthers 4 +4.0
+0.4
Panthers 4 Ducks 1 +4.0
+0.4
Panthers 2 Blue Jackets 1 +4.0
+0.4
Panthers 4 Devils 1 +3.9
+0.4
Sharks 1 Panthers 2 +3.9
+0.4
Panthers 2 Flames 1 +3.8
+0.4
Panthers 3 Stars 2 +3.8
+0.4
Panthers 4 Oilers 2 +3.7
+0.4
Panthers 6 Kings 4 +3.6
+0.4
Panthers 6 Coyotes 0 +3.5
+0.4
Capitals 5 Panthers 4 (so)*-1.7
*-0.2
Sharks 5 Flyers 1 +1.0
Capitals 2 Stars 1 (so)*-1.0
Oilers 4 Thrashers 3 +0.9
+0.1
Bruins 5 Blues 4 (so)*+0.9
Oilers 3 Hurricanes 1 +0.9
Wild 3 Hurricanes 0 +0.8
Sharks 5 Sabres 2 +0.8
Ducks 3 Flyers 1 +0.8
Wild 4 Canucks 3 +0.8
Blue Jackets 5 Bruins 2 +0.8
Flames 2 Islanders 1 +0.8
Canucks 4 Sabres 1 *+0.6
Maple Leafs 0 Kings 3 *+0.5
Sabres 3 Blue Jackets 2 *-0.4
Islanders 3 Devils 4 (so)*-0.4
Red Wings 4 Oilers 6 *-0.4
Senators 6 Flames 4 *-0.3
Senators 3 Islanders 1 *+0.3
Maple Leafs 2 Penguins 3 *+0.2
Flyers 5 Capitals 4 (ot)*+0.2
Flyers 4 Rangers 2 *+0.2
Flames 2 Capitals 3 -0.1
Lightning 0 Oilers 4 +0.1
Sharks 1 Thrashers 2 -0.1
Hurricanes 6 Senators 1 -0.0
Capitals 2 Canucks 1 -0.0
Blues 4 Lightning 3 (ot)*+0.0
Hurricanes 3 Sabres 2 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Panthers vs Senators+1.2+0.8+1.1*-0.3*-0.3-1.4
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1*-0.1-0.2
Hurricanes vs Panthers-1.3*-0.4*-0.6+1.2+0.8+1.1
-0.3*-0.0-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Panthers vs Penguins+1.2+0.7+1.0*-0.6*-0.4-1.3
+0.2+0.1+0.2*-0.1*-0.0-0.2
Panthers vs Bruins+0.9+0.8+1.2*+0.1*-0.1-1.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Flames vs Panthers-0.9-0.7*+0.1+1.4+0.7+0.7
-0.2-0.1*+0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Panthers vs Thrashers+1.1+0.8*+0.6*-0.6-0.6-1.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.2
Panthers vs Sabres+1.0+0.7+1.2*-0.4*-0.3-1.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1*-0.0-0.2
Panthers vs Capitals+0.9+0.8+1.2*-0.5*-0.1-1.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1*-0.0-0.2
Flyers vs Panthers-1.3*-0.4*-0.4*+0.5+1.0+1.1
-0.2*-0.1*-0.0+0.1+0.2+0.2
Islanders vs Panthers-1.2*-0.3*-0.3+0.9+1.1+0.9
-0.3-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Blackhawks vs Panthers-1.1*-0.1*-0.7+1.2+1.2+0.6
-0.2*-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Lightning vs Panthers-1.2*-0.4*-0.5+1.1+0.8+1.0
-0.3-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Panthers vs Thrashers+0.9+1.1+0.8*-0.2*-0.4-1.2
+0.2+0.2+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.2
Senators vs Panthers-1.2-0.5*-0.1*+0.4+0.9+1.0
-0.2*-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Sabres vs Panthers-1.2*-0.4*-0.6+0.9+0.8+1.0
-0.2*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Bruins vs Panthers-1.2*-0.3*+0.1+0.9+1.0+0.9
-0.3-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Panthers vs Hurricanes+1.0+0.8+0.9*-0.3*-0.3-1.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1*-0.0-0.2
Islanders vs Panthers-1.1*-0.4*-0.1+1.1+0.8+0.8
-0.2*-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Bruins vs Panthers-1.2-0.5*-0.4+0.8+1.0+1.0
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Panthers vs Bruins+0.8+0.9+1.0*-0.0*-0.3-1.1
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Panthers vs Sabres+0.9+0.7+1.1*-0.2-0.6-1.1
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1-0.0-0.2
Panthers vs Hurricanes+0.9+0.9*+0.7*-0.5*-0.3-1.2
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.2
Hurricanes vs Panthers-1.1*-0.4*-0.6+0.8+0.8+0.9
-0.2*-0.1*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Panthers vs Lightning+0.9+0.8*+0.7*-0.5*-0.3-1.1
+0.2+0.2+0.1*-0.1-0.1-0.3
Panthers vs Maple Leafs+0.8+0.9+0.9*-0.2*-0.3-1.1
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Panthers vs Rangers+0.9+0.7*+0.7*-0.1*-0.3-1.1
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.2
Devils vs Panthers-1.1*-0.3*-0.2+0.8+0.7+0.9
-0.3*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Wild vs Panthers-1.0*-0.3*-0.2*+0.7+1.0+0.7
-0.2*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Panthers vs Maple Leafs+0.9+0.9+0.8*-0.4-0.5-1.1
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Panthers vs Canadiens+0.8+0.8*+0.6*-0.1*-0.0-1.1
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0*-0.0-0.2
Panthers vs Avalanche+0.8+0.9*+0.6*-0.3*-0.3-1.0
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.1*-0.0-0.2
Maple Leafs vs Panthers-1.0*-0.2*-0.2*+0.5+0.7+0.8
-0.3-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Panthers finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
123450-0In1008
109376-2In1002*
108366-3In50502*
107356-4In2060205*
106335-7In1178119*
105347-4In7601313715*
104337-598.0%433624248251*
103327-6In2315222017364*
102317-797.11192172920103102*
101318-694.4172827261541179*
100308-789.590320332391285*
993110-478.852122633184444*
983010-563.7301422332780626*
972910-645.7102123034173894*
962810-729.4017213827601,264*
952811-619.50131534331301,674*
942812-510.0001929382122,156*
932712-64.3004204230402,790*
922612-72.102134037703,445*
912613-60.501734451213,914*
902513-70.304264820204,678*
892514-60.10218492735,134*
882414-70.101124635605,865*
872415-6Out0740431006,106*
862315-7Out0432481606,321*
852316-6Out0225492216,480*
842216-7Out117503022,966*
2317-5Out1184832203,613*
832217-6Out0134538406,128*
822117-7Out074147505,880*
812118-6Out0532531005,354*
802018-7Out227551414,675*
792019-6Out119572124,010*
781919-7Out014552833,423*
771920-6Out09533352,850*
761820-7Out06464182,221*
751821-6Out33846131,858*
741721-7Out23248181,344*
731722-6Out1235125930*
721622-7Out0175032686*
711623-6Out0144441520*
701523-7Out0113950386*
691524-6Out063955226*
681424-7Out63559161*
671425-6Out22672101*
661325-7Out287260*
651326-6Out79342*
641226-7Out4138323*
631227-6Out22789*
33-62Out10021*
Total:3.0%0000001241021272582100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Thrashers 5 Panthers 3 +1.2
Panthers 1 Lightning 5 +1.2
Panthers 1 Senators 3 +1.2
Panthers 1 Capitals 2 +1.2
Capitals 4 Panthers 1 +1.2
Blue Jackets 3 Panthers 1 +1.1
Lightning 3 Panthers 0 +1.1
Ducks 4 Panthers 1 +1.1
Kings 3 Panthers 1 +1.1
Senators 5 Panthers 3 +1.1
Thrashers 7 Panthers 5 +1.1
Flyers 4 Panthers 1 +1.1
Penguins 2 Panthers 0 +1.1
Coyotes 2 Panthers 1 +1.1
Avalanche 5 Panthers 4 +1.1
Maple Leafs 3 Panthers 2 +1.1
Panthers 0 Canadiens 3 +1.1
Predators 3 Panthers 1 +1.1
Panthers 4 Predators 6 +1.1
Stars 7 Panthers 3 +1.1
Canadiens 4 Panthers 2 +1.1
Oilers 5 Panthers 3 +1.1
Sabres 4 Panthers 0 +1.1
Panthers 3 Blackhawks 7 +1.0
Panthers 3 Sharks 2 (ot)-0.9
Panthers 3 Devils 1 -0.9
Panthers 5 Rangers 2 -0.9
Panthers 4 Ducks 1 -0.9
Panthers 2 Penguins 1 -0.8
Panthers 4 Oilers 2 -0.8
Sharks 1 Panthers 2 -0.8
Panthers 2 Blue Jackets 1 -0.8
Panthers 2 Islanders 1 -0.8
Panthers 4 Islanders 3 -0.8
Devils 2 Panthers 4 -0.8
Panthers 2 Flames 1 -0.8
Panthers 4 Devils 1 -0.8
Panthers 3 Stars 2 -0.8
Panthers 6 Kings 4 -0.8
Panthers 6 Coyotes 0 -0.8
Capitals 5 Panthers 4 (so)*+0.3
Capitals 2 Blackhawks 1 (ot)+0.2
Red Wings 6 Penguins 5 (so)*+0.2
Stars 1 Capitals 2 (so)*+0.2
Flames 4 Hurricanes 5 (ot)*+0.2
Hurricanes 4 Oilers 5 (so)*-0.2
Oilers 4 Thrashers 3 -0.2
Capitals 4 Coyotes 5 (ot)*-0.2
Sharks 5 Flyers 1 *-0.2
Stars 2 Flames 3 (so)+0.2
Rangers 5 Kings 4 (ot)*+0.2
Blues 2 Capitals 3 (so)+0.2
Penguins 3 Predators 4 *-0.1
Sabres 5 Thrashers 1 -0.1
Blues 3 Stars 6 *-0.0
Lightning 3 Avalanche 1 +0.0
Canadiens 6 Lightning 1 +0.0
Wild 4 Coyotes 5 *+0.0
Sharks 4 Bruins 3 *-0.0
Blues 4 Lightning 3 (ot)*-0.0
Flames 3 Maple Leafs 1 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Panthers vs Bruins-0.5-0.4-0.5*+0.2*+0.1+0.6
Panthers vs Bruins-0.5-0.4-0.4*+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Bruins vs Panthers+0.6+0.1*+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.5
Panthers vs Maple Leafs-0.5-0.5-0.4*+0.2+0.1+0.6
Panthers vs Maple Leafs-0.5-0.4-0.5+0.2+0.1+0.6
Panthers vs Lightning-0.5-0.4-0.3*+0.2*+0.1+0.6
Panthers vs Capitals-0.4-0.5-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Panthers vs Canucks-0.5-0.4-0.4*+0.1+0.1+0.6
Panthers vs Avalanche-0.5-0.4-0.4+0.2*+0.1+0.6
Canucks vs Panthers+0.6+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.5
Panthers vs Rangers-0.4-0.4-0.5*+0.0*+0.1+0.6
Maple Leafs vs Panthers+0.6+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.4-0.5
Panthers vs Hurricanes-0.4-0.4-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Lightning vs Panthers+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.5
Bruins vs Panthers+0.6+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.4-0.5
Devils vs Panthers+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.5
Islanders vs Panthers+0.6*+0.1*+0.0-0.5-0.4-0.5
Islanders vs Panthers+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.4-0.4
Flames vs Panthers+0.6+0.2*+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.5
Blackhawks vs Panthers+0.6*+0.1*+0.2-0.5-0.4-0.4
Hurricanes vs Panthers+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Panthers vs Senators-0.4-0.5-0.4*+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Panthers vs Blues-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Panthers vs Thrashers-0.4-0.5-0.4*+0.2*+0.1+0.6
Panthers vs Red Wings-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Panthers vs Sabres-0.4-0.4-0.5*+0.1+0.1+0.5
Wild vs Panthers+0.5*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.4
Flyers vs Panthers+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4
Panthers vs Canadiens-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Panthers vs Sabres-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.2*+0.1+0.6
Senators vs Panthers+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Rangers vs Panthers+0.6*+0.1+0.1*-0.3-0.4-0.4
Red Wings vs Panthers+0.6*+0.1*+0.0-0.4-0.4-0.4
Panthers vs Penguins-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.2*+0.1+0.6
Panthers vs Hurricanes-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.1*+0.0+0.6
Panthers vs Thrashers-0.4-0.4*-0.3*+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Sabres vs Panthers+0.6*+0.1*+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Hurricanes vs Panthers+0.6*+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Panthers vs Flyers-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.1*+0.1+0.6
Panthers vs Wild-0.4-0.4-0.4*+0.1*+0.1+0.6

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
123450-0100
109376-2100
108366-35050
107356-4206020
106335-711334411
105347-47273313777
104337-5416186121216882
103327-6219135616119173
102317-71109251215151731021
101318-6314218111620615142
100308-70903614191420391
993110-41522101115258175
983010-50301045171716241120
972910-601021101317291862
962810-70107516242614510
952811-6010321414282212410
942812-50010992030199300
932712-600043132527187200
922612-7021516272617610
912613-6010192029251231
902513-7001312242821820
892514-6001515282916510
882414-7002821312510200
872415-61313273019610
862315-70171932271220
852316-6031228322050
842216-700162033291010
832217-60031330331730
2116-8031229341830
822117-701723372660
812118-6031534361110
802018-701930391830
792019-600422412560
781919-72143834101
771920-60193340152
761820-7152741224
751821-6032040316
741721-70114353911
731722-68314318
721622-705244822
711623-65184433
701523-72153945
691524-6294247
681424-7193754
671425-632968
661325-723860
651326-6793
641226-741778
631227-62278
33-62100
Total:00000000000011123457911131413842