How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Lightning 3 Senators 1 -5.7
-0.6
Senators 3 Hurricanes 5 -5.7
-0.6
Penguins 2 Senators 1 -5.7
-0.6
Hurricanes 6 Senators 1 -5.6
-0.6
Capitals 2 Senators 1 -5.3
-0.5
Senators 1 Lightning 4 -5.2
-0.5
Senators 1 Wild 4 -5.2
-0.5
Sabres 4 Senators 3 -5.1
-0.6
Ducks 5 Senators 4 -5.1
-0.5
Senators 1 Stars 4 -5.1
-0.5
Thrashers 7 Senators 2 -5.1
-0.5
Flames 3 Senators 2 -5.1
-0.5
Blackhawks 4 Senators 2 -5.1
-0.5
Blues 4 Senators 1 -5.1
-0.5
Senators 3 Canucks 4 -5.0
-0.5
Senators 1 Sharks 4 -5.0
-0.5
Senators 2 Blue Jackets 5 -4.9
-0.5
Senators 3 Canadiens 0 +4.4
+0.5
Islanders 2 Senators 5 +4.3
+0.4
Senators 5 Hurricanes 1 +4.2
+0.4
Maple Leafs 0 Senators 2 +4.1
+0.4
Senators 3 Islanders 1 +4.1
+0.4
Senators 3 Devils 2 +4.1
+0.4
Islanders 1 Senators 3 +4.1
+0.4
Senators 6 Lightning 3 +4.1
+0.4
Hurricanes 2 Senators 3 +4.1
+0.4
Senators 5 Panthers 3 +4.0
+0.4
Senators 3 Blues 2 +4.0
+0.4
Maple Leafs 1 Senators 5 +4.0
+0.5
Sabres 1 Senators 3 +4.0
+0.4
Panthers 1 Senators 3 +3.9
+0.4
Stars 1 Senators 2 +3.9
+0.4
Capitals 3 Senators 4 +3.9
+0.4
Senators 4 Maple Leafs 3 +3.8
+0.5
Senators 5 Predators 3 +3.8
+0.4
Senators 6 Flames 4 +3.8
+0.4
Oilers 2 Senators 3 +3.6
+0.4
Senators 4 Islanders 3 (ot)+3.6
+0.3
Avalanche 4 Senators 7 +3.5
+0.4
Coyotes 4 Senators 6 +3.4
+0.4
Senators 5 Avalanche 4 +3.4
+0.4
Oilers 4 Lightning 3 (so)*-1.6
Wild 3 Islanders 2 +1.0
Bruins 2 Avalanche 4 +1.0
Capitals 2 Blue Jackets 1 (ot)*-1.0
Coyotes 5 Sabres 4 +0.9
Canadiens 3 Sharks 2 -0.9
-0.1
Thrashers 2 Canucks 5 +0.9
Devils 3 Sharks 5 +0.9
Panthers 2 Blue Jackets 1 -0.9
Bruins 5 Canucks 4 -0.8
-0.1
Islanders 2 Stars 3 +0.8
Bruins 5 Blues 4 (so)*+0.6
Stars 7 Panthers 3 *+0.5
Maple Leafs 4 Blue Jackets 3 (so)*-0.5
Devils 1 Blues 2 *+0.5
Predators 4 Devils 1 *+0.4
Blues 2 Capitals 3 (so)*-0.4
Bruins 3 Predators 4 (so)*-0.3
Capitals 2 Wild 3 (so)*-0.3
Canucks 3 Rangers 4 (ot)*+0.2
Bruins 2 Devils 3 *+0.2
+0.0
Flyers 5 Bruins 6 (so)*-0.2
Capitals 3 Bruins 2 +0.0
Avalanche 0 Blackhawks 2 *+0.0
Sharks 0 Capitals 1 *-0.0
Stars 2 Sabres 3 *-0.0
Sabres 5 Thrashers 1 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Senators vs Thrashers+4.7+3.9+4.8*-0.8*-0.5-6.3
+0.3+0.2+0.4*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Senators vs Thrashers+4.5+4.3+5.1*-1.1-1.4-5.9
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.0-0.1-0.4
Senators vs Capitals+4.9+3.2+4.8*-1.5*-0.8-6.1
+0.3+0.2+0.2*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Lightning vs Senators-6.1*-0.8-3.5+3.8+4.7+4.8
-0.4*-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Flyers vs Senators-5.7*+0.0-2.1+4.9+3.0+4.4
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Senators vs Capitals+4.7+4.6+3.9-2.0-1.4-5.9
+0.3+0.3+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.4
Senators vs Penguins+4.4+4.0+4.6*-0.9*-0.9-5.8
+0.3+0.2+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Senators vs Canadiens+4.0+3.4+5.0*-1.0*-0.7-5.3
+0.3+0.2+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Thrashers vs Senators-5.6-2.1*-0.9+4.5+3.6+4.7
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Blue Jackets vs Senators-5.5*-0.4*+0.2+4.8+4.0+3.8
-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Senators vs Penguins+4.4+4.4+3.5*-0.3*-0.9-5.9
+0.3+0.3+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.4
Penguins vs Senators-5.6-1.4*-0.7+2.3+4.1+4.6
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Rangers vs Senators-5.7*-0.4*-0.1+4.5+3.7+4.0
-0.4-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Senators vs Sabres+4.3+3.2+4.5*-0.8*-0.3-5.7
+0.3+0.2+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.4
Flyers vs Senators-5.7-1.4*-1.3+3.9+4.0+4.5
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Senators vs Flyers+4.1+4.6+3.6*-0.6-1.4-5.5
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Senators vs Bruins+4.4+3.4+4.2*+0.0*-0.8-5.7
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.0-0.4
Bruins vs Senators-5.7*-0.2*-0.8+4.3+3.5+4.3
-0.4*-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Senators vs Flyers+4.4+4.0+4.1-2.5*-0.8-5.6
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.4
Senators vs Sabres+4.3+3.5+3.3*+0.6*-0.7-5.6
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Senators vs Maple Leafs+3.5+4.6+3.5*-0.1*-0.7-5.2
+0.2+0.3+0.2*-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Bruins vs Senators-5.4*-1.1*-1.0+4.4+3.5+4.3
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.2+0.3
Sharks vs Senators-5.4*-0.7*-0.1+4.0+4.4+3.7
-0.4-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Senators vs Red Wings+3.8+3.7+4.5*-0.8*-0.9-5.1
+0.3+0.2+0.3*-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Kings vs Senators-5.4*-0.6*+0.2+3.2+3.4+4.2
-0.4*-0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
Senators vs Kings+4.1+3.9+3.5*-1.5*-0.5-5.4
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Senators vs Bruins+4.0+4.1+4.0*-1.1*-0.8-5.4
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Senators vs Rangers+4.1+4.0+2.5*-1.0*-0.6-5.4
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Canadiens vs Senators-5.2*-0.6*-1.1+4.2+4.0+3.8
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Red Wings vs Senators-5.3*-0.2*-0.5+3.5+4.1+3.6
-0.4*-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.2
Senators vs Rangers+3.9+4.1+3.6*-0.5*-0.9-5.3
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Devils vs Senators-5.3*+0.2*-0.8+4.0+3.4+3.9
-0.4-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Rangers vs Senators-5.2*-0.9*-1.3+2.8+4.0+4.1
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Senators vs Devils+3.4+4.2+3.9*-0.5*-0.2-5.1
+0.2+0.3+0.3-0.1*-0.0-0.3
Devils vs Senators-5.3*-0.6*-0.5+3.7+3.7+3.9
-0.4*-0.0*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Canadiens vs Senators-5.1*-1.1*-0.8+3.5+4.2+3.8
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Canucks vs Senators-5.2*-0.1*-0.7+3.9+3.1+3.9
-0.4-0.0*-0.1+0.3+0.2+0.3
Senators vs Coyotes+3.9+3.8+3.4*-1.2*-0.4-5.2
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Senators vs Panthers+3.9+3.5+3.2*-1.3*-0.5-5.1
+0.3+0.3+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.4
Senators vs Blackhawks+3.7+3.6+3.6*-0.3*-0.1-5.2
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Wild vs Senators-5.0*-0.3*-1.0+3.9+3.3+3.7
-0.4*-0.0*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Predators vs Senators-5.1*-0.1*-0.9+2.7+3.6+3.7
-0.3*-0.0*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Senators vs Oilers+3.7+3.2+3.7*-1.1*-0.3-5.0
+0.3+0.2+0.2*-0.1*-0.0-0.3
Panthers vs Senators-4.9*-0.8*-0.5+3.5+3.8+3.6
-0.3*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Senators finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
121-138In10034*
120337-4In69102129*
119327-5In7941753*
118317-6In7732071*
117318-5In621029146*
116308-6In48130362229*
115309-5In4512403364*
114299-6In2818495548*
113289-7In23141529848*
1122810-6In15161571001,137*
1112811-5In8142591611,534*
1102711-6In5122562322,058*
1092611-7In2925430302,548*
1082612-6In1534737603,190*
1072512-7In142374511103,907*
1062513-6In022284619304,373*
1052413-7In012204526615,173*
1042414-699.9%1112393411105,709*
1032314-799.70173138184006,100*
1022315-699.20032238288106,591*
1012215-796.80113343414306,620*
1002216-693.8007263623606,645*
992116-786.400317363012106,421*
982117-677.10110303720305,941*
972017-764.115223729605,463*
962018-648.5021333381214,790*
951918-735.9018274121304,238*
941919-623.503204328503,435*
931819-712.102114039812,977*
921820-67.2016324316202,311*
911720-73.904224624301,798*
901721-61.201144631801,333*
891621-70.701940391011,064*
881622-60.1063142173731*
871522-70.2042242265530*
861523-6Out11644318380*
851524-5Out193839121237*
841424-6Out62845201172*
831425-5Out52344271113*
821325-6Out165326670*
811225-7Out31129461135*
801226-6Out215521329*
791227-5Out50504*
781026-8Out1767176*
771229-3Out50502*
761129-4Out50502*
75928-7Out1001
74929-6Out1001
731031-3Out1001
50044-0Out1008
Total:76.1%121121616151312831000100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Lightning 3 Senators 1 +1.2
Penguins 2 Senators 1 +1.2
Senators 3 Hurricanes 5 +1.2
Hurricanes 6 Senators 1 +1.1
Sabres 4 Senators 3 +1.1
Ducks 5 Senators 4 +1.1
Capitals 2 Senators 1 +1.1
Senators 3 Canucks 4 +1.1
Blackhawks 4 Senators 2 +1.1
Flames 3 Senators 2 +1.1
Senators 1 Sharks 4 +1.1
Blues 4 Senators 1 +1.1
Senators 1 Lightning 4 +1.1
Senators 1 Wild 4 +1.1
Senators 2 Blue Jackets 5 +1.1
Thrashers 7 Senators 2 +1.1
Senators 1 Stars 4 +1.1
Senators 3 Canadiens 0 -1.0
Maple Leafs 1 Senators 5 -0.9
Senators 4 Maple Leafs 3 -0.9
Maple Leafs 0 Senators 2 -0.9
Sabres 1 Senators 3 -0.9
Senators 3 Blues 2 -0.9
Senators 3 Islanders 1 -0.9
Senators 5 Hurricanes 1 -0.9
Senators 5 Predators 3 -0.9
Stars 1 Senators 2 -0.9
Islanders 2 Senators 5 -0.9
Senators 6 Lightning 3 -0.9
Senators 5 Panthers 3 -0.8
Islanders 1 Senators 3 -0.8
Senators 3 Devils 2 -0.8
Senators 6 Flames 4 -0.8
Panthers 1 Senators 3 -0.8
Capitals 3 Senators 4 -0.8
Oilers 2 Senators 3 -0.8
Hurricanes 2 Senators 3 -0.8
Avalanche 4 Senators 7 -0.8
Senators 5 Avalanche 4 -0.8
Coyotes 4 Senators 6 -0.8
Senators 4 Islanders 3 (ot)-0.7
Flyers 5 Bruins 6 (so)+0.4
Hurricanes 5 Ducks 4 (so)+0.3
Hurricanes 3 Flyers 2 (so)-0.3
Canadiens 4 Coyotes 3 (so)*+0.3
Blues 2 Bruins 3 (so)*+0.2
Avalanche 1 Rangers 2 (so)*+0.2
Rangers 5 Kings 4 (ot)*-0.2
Maple Leafs 4 Blue Jackets 3 (so)*+0.2
Oilers 4 Lightning 3 (so)+0.2
Bruins 5 Blues 4 (so)*-0.2
Capitals 2 Blue Jackets 1 (ot)*+0.2
Stars 1 Capitals 2 (so)*-0.2
Bruins 2 Avalanche 4 -0.2
Lightning 2 Sabres 3 (so)+0.2
Canadiens 3 Sharks 2 +0.2
Bruins 5 Canucks 4 +0.2
Thrashers 3 Bruins 2 (ot)*+0.2
Avalanche 2 Devils 3 (ot)*+0.1
Kings 3 Islanders 1 -0.1
Red Wings 5 Flyers 1 -0.1
Flyers 4 Blue Jackets 3 +0.1
Red Wings 1 Canadiens 3 +0.0
Canucks 0 Bruins 4 +0.0
Rangers 4 Thrashers 2 *-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Senators vs Thrashers-0.7-0.5-0.8*+0.2*+0.1+0.9
Flyers vs Senators+0.9+0.1+0.2-0.7-0.6-0.7
Senators vs Flyers-0.7-0.7-0.5*+0.1+0.2+0.9
Senators vs Flyers-0.7-0.6-0.6+0.3+0.1+0.9
Senators vs Canadiens-0.7-0.5-0.7*+0.2+0.2+0.8
Senators vs Capitals-0.7-0.5-0.5*+0.2+0.1+0.9
Senators vs Sabres-0.7-0.5-0.7*+0.1*+0.1+0.9
Senators vs Penguins-0.7-0.5-0.7+0.1+0.2+0.9
Senators vs Sabres-0.7-0.6-0.5*+0.1+0.2+0.9
Flyers vs Senators+0.9+0.2+0.3-0.7-0.7-0.7
Senators vs Capitals-0.7-0.6-0.6*+0.2*+0.2+0.8
Penguins vs Senators+0.8*+0.2*+0.2-0.4-0.6-0.7
Lightning vs Senators+0.9*+0.1+0.2-0.6-0.7-0.6
Senators vs Penguins-0.7-0.6-0.6*+0.2+0.2+0.8
Senators vs Thrashers-0.6-0.6-0.6+0.0+0.1+0.8
Sharks vs Senators+0.8+0.2*+0.1-0.6-0.7-0.6
Senators vs Rangers-0.6-0.6-0.5*+0.1+0.2+0.8
Rangers vs Senators+0.8*+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.6
Canadiens vs Senators+0.8+0.2+0.2-0.6-0.6-0.6
Canadiens vs Senators+0.8+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.6
Thrashers vs Senators+0.8+0.2*+0.1-0.6-0.5-0.6
Bruins vs Senators+0.8*+0.0*+0.2-0.5-0.5-0.6
Senators vs Bruins-0.6-0.6-0.6*+0.1*+0.1+0.8
Red Wings vs Senators+0.8*+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.6-0.6
Kings vs Senators+0.8+0.1*+0.0-0.5-0.6-0.6
Senators vs Rangers-0.6-0.6-0.5*+0.2*+0.1+0.8
Senators vs Maple Leafs-0.5-0.7-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.8
Blue Jackets vs Senators+0.8*+0.1*+0.0-0.6-0.6-0.6
Senators vs Devils-0.5-0.6-0.7+0.2*+0.1+0.8
Senators vs Panthers-0.6-0.6-0.5*+0.2+0.1+0.8
Senators vs Bruins-0.6-0.6-0.6*+0.1*+0.1+0.8
Rangers vs Senators+0.8+0.1*+0.2-0.5-0.6-0.6
Senators vs Red Wings-0.6-0.6-0.6*+0.1+0.2+0.8
Bruins vs Senators+0.8+0.2*+0.1-0.6-0.5-0.6
Senators vs Kings-0.6-0.6-0.6+0.1+0.1+0.8
Senators vs Blackhawks-0.6-0.6-0.5+0.2*+0.1+0.8

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
123-138100
122346-48813
121336-5100
120337-46271021
119327-5728417
118317-66513320
117318-547151029
116308-634141303512
115309-524201204013
114299-612161624725
113289-781512214939
1122810-64111241507100
1112811-517104248111501
1102711-614752040162312
1092611-7024520332128130
1082612-6012431222533460
1072512-711321132336911010
1062513-600211721311518130
1052413-7001113172520233601
1042414-60001111152427711010
1032314-70010782425131714000
1022315-60000331919202348010
1012215-700011121024241014130
1002216-600074221917194600
992116-7000311612242281120
982117-6010105242017175100
972017-710522013242111310
962018-60211372721199300
951918-70108324152316720
941919-60311910222215610
931819-702010414272413410
921820-60106192128211030
911720-7040214262818720
901721-6010161530251551
891621-70100310223022930
881622-60141325312061
871522-701281828291221
861523-60041221342081
851524-5018143132113
841424-61263128266
831425-514202931132
821325-6373337191
811225-7314314011
801226-614213828
791227-5252550
781026-86733
771229-35050
761129-45050
75928-7100
74929-6100
731031-3100
50044-0100
Total:111100668888877764432211000000