How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Hurricanes 1 Lightning 2 -5.6
-0.6
Hurricanes 1 Avalanche 3 -5.5
-0.5
Senators 5 Hurricanes 1 -5.5
-0.6
Hurricanes 2 Senators 3 -5.4
-0.5
Canadiens 7 Hurricanes 2 -5.3
-0.5
Lightning 4 Hurricanes 3 -5.3
-0.6
Canucks 6 Hurricanes 5 -5.3
-0.5
Flyers 6 Hurricanes 3 -5.3
-0.5
Blue Jackets 6 Hurricanes 3 -5.2
-0.5
Hurricanes 2 Lightning 3 -5.2
-0.6
Canadiens 3 Hurricanes 2 -5.2
-0.5
Kings 6 Hurricanes 2 -5.0
-0.5
Coyotes 5 Hurricanes 4 -5.0
-0.5
Wild 3 Hurricanes 0 -4.8
-0.5
Oilers 3 Hurricanes 1 -4.8
-0.5
Hurricanes 3 Blue Jackets 4 -4.7
-0.5
Hurricanes 4 Sabres 3 (so)+4.6
+0.4
Flyers 1 Hurricanes 2 +4.5
+0.5
Hurricanes 4 Maple Leafs 1 +4.4
+0.5
Hurricanes 5 Capitals 3 +4.4
+0.5
Devils 2 Hurricanes 4 +4.4
+0.4
Bruins 4 Hurricanes 5 +4.3
+0.4
Hurricanes 3 Thrashers 2 +4.3
+0.5
Hurricanes 3 Penguins 2 +4.2
+0.4
Hurricanes 6 Senators 1 +4.2
+0.4
Lightning 3 Hurricanes 5 +4.2
+0.4
Hurricanes 7 Penguins 4 +4.2
+0.4
Islanders 2 Hurricanes 4 +4.1
+0.4
Hurricanes 5 Canadiens 2 +4.0
+0.4
Hurricanes 2 Rangers 1 +4.0
+0.4
Flames 4 Hurricanes 5 (ot)+4.0
+0.4
Hurricanes 4 Canucks 1 +3.9
+0.4
Hurricanes 3 Sabres 2 +3.9
+0.4
Hurricanes 5 Maple Leafs 0 +3.8
+0.4
Senators 3 Hurricanes 5 +3.8
+0.4
Sharks 3 Hurricanes 4 +3.7
+0.4
Blackhawks 2 Hurricanes 4 +3.7
+0.4
Hurricanes 5 Ducks 4 (so)+3.5
+0.4
Hurricanes 3 Flyers 2 (so)+3.1
+0.4
Islanders 3 Devils 4 (so)-2.3
-0.2
Maple Leafs 4 Hurricanes 3 (so)*-1.5
*-0.1
Panthers 3 Sharks 2 (ot)-1.4
Thrashers 1 Wild 3 +0.8
Sharks 0 Capitals 1 -0.8
Panthers 4 Predators 6 *+0.7
+0.1
Panthers 6 Kings 4 *-0.7
Blues 3 Devils 1 *+0.6
Oilers 4 Lightning 3 (so)*+0.6
*+0.1
Blue Jackets 1 Sabres 3 *-0.6
Panthers 1 Senators 3 *+0.5
+0.0
Sabres 5 Canucks 2 *-0.5
Maple Leafs 3 Panthers 2 *+0.5
Flames 3 Senators 2 *+0.4
Bruins 1 Sharks 2 (ot)*+0.3
Flyers 5 Penguins 3 *+0.3
Devils 2 Canucks 5 *+0.3
Hurricanes 4 Oilers 5 (so)*-0.3
*-0.0
Lightning 2 Canadiens 4 *+0.3
Capitals 4 Coyotes 5 (ot)*+0.3
Blackhawks 2 Ducks 5 *-0.2
Flames 0 Rangers 5 *-0.2
Senators 6 Lightning 3 *+0.2
Wild 4 Flames 2 *-0.2
Stars 1 Capitals 2 (so)*-0.1
Blue Jackets 3 Panthers 1 +0.1
Panthers 3 Stars 2 -0.1
Thrashers 6 Kings 4 -0.1
Capitals 4 Islanders 5 +0.1
Capitals 2 Senators 1 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Hurricanes vs Thrashers+5.2+4.0+5.3*+0.2*-1.1-6.8
+0.4+0.3+0.5*-0.1-0.1-0.5
Thrashers vs Hurricanes-6.7-1.4*-1.9+4.6+4.8+5.3
-0.6-0.1-0.2+0.4+0.4+0.4
Thrashers vs Hurricanes-6.7*-1.0*-0.7+3.9+4.3+5.3
-0.5-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Penguins vs Hurricanes-6.3*-1.2*-1.9+3.8+5.1+4.8
-0.5*-0.1*-0.2+0.3+0.4+0.4
Panthers vs Hurricanes-6.0*-0.5*-0.5+5.3+3.6+4.5
-0.5-0.0*-0.0+0.4+0.3+0.3
Capitals vs Hurricanes-6.3*-1.0*-1.3+4.1+4.5+5.0
-0.5-0.1-0.2+0.3+0.4+0.4
Hurricanes vs Capitals+4.9+4.0+3.3*-0.8*-0.6-6.3
+0.4+0.3+0.3-0.2-0.1-0.5
Avalanche vs Hurricanes-5.7*-0.8*-1.1+5.4+4.3+4.0
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.4+0.4+0.3
Hurricanes vs Canadiens+3.6+4.8+5.5*-0.7*-0.6-5.6
+0.3+0.4+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Hurricanes vs Flyers+4.7+4.2+4.7*-0.7*-0.9-6.2
+0.4+0.4+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.5
Panthers vs Hurricanes-6.1*-0.4*-0.2+4.7+4.3+4.4
-0.5*-0.0*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Penguins vs Hurricanes-5.9-1.5*-1.9+3.5+4.2+4.9
-0.5-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Hurricanes vs Bruins+4.4+4.4+4.6*-0.3*-0.8-6.1
+0.3+0.4+0.4*-0.1*-0.1-0.5
Capitals vs Hurricanes-6.0-1.4*-0.4+3.6+3.9+4.7
-0.5-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Maple Leafs vs Hurricanes-5.8*-0.3*-0.1+4.8+3.9+4.2
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.4+0.3+0.3
Hurricanes vs Islanders+4.2+4.8+3.4*-0.8*-0.4-5.9
+0.3+0.4+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Devils vs Hurricanes-5.9*-0.7*+0.6+4.7+4.3+4.0
-0.5*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Red Wings vs Hurricanes-5.8*-1.1*+0.0+4.5+4.8+4.1
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.4+0.3
Blues vs Hurricanes-5.8*-0.7*-0.5+4.7+4.0+4.3
-0.5*-0.1*-0.1+0.4+0.3+0.3
Hurricanes vs Islanders+4.0+3.5+4.8*+0.3*-0.0-5.7
+0.3+0.3+0.3*+0.0*-0.0-0.4
Sabres vs Hurricanes-5.8-1.2*-0.3+4.0+4.7+4.4
-0.5*-0.1*-0.0+0.4+0.4+0.4
Hurricanes vs Stars+4.0+4.6+4.1*-1.2*+0.4-5.9
+0.3+0.3+0.4*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Hurricanes vs Bruins+4.4+4.3+3.6*-1.7*+0.4-6.1
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.5
Rangers vs Hurricanes-5.5*-0.7*-0.7+5.0+5.0+3.6
-0.5-0.1*-0.0+0.4+0.4+0.3
Hurricanes vs Blues+4.1+4.2+4.5-2.0*+0.4-5.8
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*+0.0-0.4
Hurricanes vs Coyotes+4.0+3.3+4.8*+0.2*-0.5-5.5
+0.3+0.3+0.3*+0.0*-0.1-0.4
Bruins vs Hurricanes-5.9*-0.8*-0.7+3.6+4.3+4.4
-0.5*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Hurricanes vs Devils+3.9+3.8+4.6*-0.2*-0.2-5.6
+0.3+0.3+0.4*-0.0*-0.0-0.4
Hurricanes vs Predators+4.5+3.9+2.8*-1.4*-0.2-5.7
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Islanders vs Hurricanes-5.8*-0.2*-0.6+3.1+4.1+4.3
-0.5*-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Hurricanes vs Devils+4.3+4.4+3.3*+0.4*-0.9-5.8
+0.3+0.4+0.3*+0.0*-0.1-0.4
Hurricanes vs Panthers+4.5+3.8+3.6*-0.2-1.3-5.6
+0.4+0.3+0.2*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Hurricanes vs Panthers+4.3+3.9+4.2*-1.3*-0.3-5.7
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Hurricanes vs Rangers+4.3+3.9+4.4*-0.3-1.2-5.6
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Ducks vs Hurricanes-5.7*-0.9*-0.0+3.8+3.7+4.3
-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Rangers vs Hurricanes-5.6-1.4*-1.6+3.6+4.4+4.3
-0.5*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Stars vs Hurricanes-5.6*-0.7*-1.2+4.4+4.0+4.1
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Hurricanes vs Blackhawks+3.9+4.6+3.8*+0.4-1.9-5.3
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Hurricanes vs Kings+4.2+3.9+4.5-2.0*-1.0-5.3
+0.3+0.3+0.4*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Hurricanes vs Flames+4.1+3.0+4.4*-0.4*-0.6-5.5
+0.3+0.2+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Hurricanes vs Red Wings+4.1+3.8+4.2*+0.5*-0.9-5.5
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Hurricanes vs Sharks+4.0+4.2+4.0*+0.2*-0.8-5.5
+0.3+0.3+0.4-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Predators vs Hurricanes-5.5*-0.7*+0.2+2.8+4.0+4.2
-0.4-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Hurricanes vs Wild+4.2+3.8+4.0*-0.3*-1.1-5.5
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Sabres vs Hurricanes-5.4*-0.7*-0.7+3.4+3.8+4.1
-0.4-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Hurricanes finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
138450-0In1008
125364-5In50502
123355-5In1005*
122345-6In1001
121346-5In89119*
120325-8In613923*
119337-5In6829331*
118327-6In70272264*
117328-5In59401118*
116318-6In365851154*
115319-5In3058111321*
114309-6In30492020396*
1133010-5In18582130684*
1122910-6In12533231859*
1112810-7In744435101,232*
1102811-6In439487201,636*
1092711-7In229548512,168*
1082712-6In12258107202,717*
1072612-7In013611012303,267*
1062613-6In08579168203,982*
1052513-7In055281813304,566*
1042514-6100.0%246620197105,134*
1032414-799.71394172313305,705*
1022415-699.20322132520716,219*
1012315-797.702219252813206,461*
1002316-694.4016052132215006,488*
992216-788.712021431301016,409*
982217-678.47018263518306,137*
972117-766.1405193727605,874*
962118-653.22021336341215,343*
952018-738.0117294119204,701*
942019-625.0103204128504,168*
931919-714.4002124135903,448*
921920-67.401731441622,865*
911820-73.7004254622302,352*
901821-61.82184231801,812*
891721-70.7110393812101,392*
881722-60.40732401831,061*
871622-7Out32444244758*
861623-6Out2143935100485*
851523-7Out193436191368*
841524-6Out0727412220225*
831424-7Out22048291142*
821425-6Out1104045387*
811426-5Out920637246*
801326-6Out41312832*
791428-3Out25502512*
781328-4Out3831151513*
771127-7Out5033176*
761128-6Out33673*
74928-8Out1001
72930-6Out50502*
48045-0Out1008
Total:72.6%15222610121413941000100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Hurricanes 1 Lightning 2 +1.2
Lightning 4 Hurricanes 3 +1.1
Hurricanes 1 Avalanche 3 +1.1
Hurricanes 2 Lightning 3 +1.1
Senators 5 Hurricanes 1 +1.1
Blue Jackets 6 Hurricanes 3 +1.1
Hurricanes 2 Senators 3 +1.1
Canucks 6 Hurricanes 5 +1.1
Coyotes 5 Hurricanes 4 +1.1
Canadiens 7 Hurricanes 2 +1.1
Canadiens 3 Hurricanes 2 +1.1
Flyers 6 Hurricanes 3 +1.1
Kings 6 Hurricanes 2 +1.1
Oilers 3 Hurricanes 1 +1.1
Wild 3 Hurricanes 0 +1.0
Hurricanes 3 Blue Jackets 4 +1.0
Hurricanes 5 Capitals 3 -0.9
Hurricanes 4 Maple Leafs 1 -0.9
Hurricanes 3 Thrashers 2 -0.9
Flyers 1 Hurricanes 2 -0.9
Bruins 4 Hurricanes 5 -0.9
Hurricanes 5 Ducks 4 (so)-0.9
Devils 2 Hurricanes 4 -0.9
Lightning 3 Hurricanes 5 -0.9
Hurricanes 4 Sabres 3 (so)-0.9
Hurricanes 7 Penguins 4 -0.9
Islanders 2 Hurricanes 4 -0.9
Hurricanes 6 Senators 1 -0.9
Hurricanes 3 Penguins 2 -0.8
Hurricanes 4 Canucks 1 -0.8
Flames 4 Hurricanes 5 (ot)-0.8
Hurricanes 2 Rangers 1 -0.8
Hurricanes 5 Canadiens 2 -0.8
Blackhawks 2 Hurricanes 4 -0.8
Sharks 3 Hurricanes 4 -0.8
Hurricanes 5 Maple Leafs 0 -0.8
Senators 3 Hurricanes 5 -0.8
Hurricanes 3 Sabres 2 -0.8
Hurricanes 3 Flyers 2 (so)-0.8
Maple Leafs 4 Hurricanes 3 (so)*+0.3
Stars 2 Rangers 1 (so)*+0.3
Sharks 4 Penguins 5 (so)*+0.2
Bruins 3 Predators 4 (so)*-0.2
Thrashers 5 Canadiens 4 (so)*-0.2
Kings 5 Thrashers 4 (ot)*+0.2
Thrashers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)*+0.2
Flyers 4 Wild 5 (ot)*+0.2
Panthers 4 Predators 6 -0.1
Sharks 0 Capitals 1 +0.1
Oilers 4 Lightning 3 (so)*-0.1
Blues 3 Devils 1 -0.1
Islanders 4 Capitals 3 (ot)*+0.1
Hurricanes 4 Oilers 5 (so)*+0.1
Stars 1 Capitals 2 (so)*+0.1
Ducks 5 Senators 4 *-0.1
Capitals 3 Bruins 2 *-0.0
Canucks 1 Canadiens 6 +0.0
Devils 2 Canucks 5 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thrashers vs Hurricanes+1.2+0.2+0.4-0.8-0.8-0.9
Hurricanes vs Thrashers-0.9-0.7-1.0*+0.1+0.2+1.1
Capitals vs Hurricanes+1.1+0.2+0.3-0.7-0.8-0.9
Thrashers vs Hurricanes+1.1+0.3*+0.2-0.7-0.7-0.9
Hurricanes vs Capitals-0.9-0.7-0.6+0.4+0.2+1.1
Capitals vs Hurricanes+1.1+0.3*+0.1-0.7-0.7-0.9
Rangers vs Hurricanes+1.0+0.2*+0.1-0.9-0.8-0.7
Avalanche vs Hurricanes+1.0+0.2*+0.2-0.9-0.8-0.7
Hurricanes vs Bruins-0.7-0.8-0.8*+0.2*+0.2+1.0
Hurricanes vs Kings-0.7-0.6-0.9*+0.2*+0.1+0.9
Hurricanes vs Devils-0.7-0.7-0.8*+0.0*+0.1+0.9
Hurricanes vs Flyers-0.8-0.8-0.7*+0.2*+0.2+1.0
Red Wings vs Hurricanes+1.0+0.2*+0.1-0.7-0.8-0.7
Panthers vs Hurricanes+1.0+0.1+0.1-0.8-0.7-0.7
Blues vs Hurricanes+1.0*+0.1*+0.2-0.8-0.7-0.7
Sabres vs Hurricanes+1.0+0.2*+0.1-0.8-0.8-0.8
Maple Leafs vs Hurricanes+1.0*+0.1*+0.1-0.8-0.7-0.7
Hurricanes vs Sharks-0.7-0.8-0.8+0.2*+0.2+1.0
Panthers vs Hurricanes+1.0*+0.1*+0.3-0.7-0.7-0.8
Penguins vs Hurricanes+1.0+0.2+0.3-0.7-0.8-0.8
Hurricanes vs Canadiens-0.6-0.8-0.7*+0.1*+0.1+0.9
Rangers vs Hurricanes+1.0+0.2*+0.3-0.6-0.7-0.8
Hurricanes vs Predators-0.8-0.6-0.6*+0.2*+0.1+1.0
Penguins vs Hurricanes+1.0*+0.2*+0.2-0.7-0.7-0.8
Hurricanes vs Stars-0.7-0.7-0.8*+0.2+0.0+1.0
Islanders vs Hurricanes+1.0*+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.7-0.7
Hurricanes vs Islanders-0.7-0.8-0.6*+0.1+0.1+0.9
Hurricanes vs Devils-0.7-0.8-0.6*-0.0*+0.2+1.0
Hurricanes vs Panthers-0.8-0.6-0.6*+0.0+0.2+1.0
Hurricanes vs Blues-0.7-0.7-0.7+0.3-0.0+1.0
Hurricanes vs Bruins-0.7-0.6-0.6*+0.2+0.0+1.0
Stars vs Hurricanes+1.0*+0.1*+0.3-0.6-0.7-0.7
Predators vs Hurricanes+1.0+0.2*+0.1-0.7-0.7-0.7
Bruins vs Hurricanes+1.0*+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.7-0.7
Hurricanes vs Wild-0.7-0.6-0.6*+0.1*+0.2+1.0
Hurricanes vs Flames-0.7-0.5-0.7*+0.1*+0.1+1.0
Hurricanes vs Islanders-0.7-0.6-0.7*-0.0*+0.1+1.0
Ducks vs Hurricanes+1.0+0.1*+0.1-0.7-0.6-0.7
Hurricanes vs Rangers-0.7-0.7-0.6*+0.1+0.1+1.0
Devils vs Hurricanes+1.0*+0.1+0.0-0.7-0.7-0.7
Hurricanes vs Coyotes-0.7-0.6-0.7*-0.0*+0.1+1.0
Hurricanes vs Red Wings-0.7-0.6-0.7*+0.1+0.2+0.9
Sabres vs Hurricanes+0.9+0.2+0.0-0.6-0.7-0.7
Hurricanes vs Panthers-0.7-0.7-0.7*+0.2*+0.1+1.0
Hurricanes vs Blackhawks-0.7-0.7-0.7*+0.0*+0.3+0.9

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
138450-0100
125364-55050
123355-5100
122345-6100
121346-58911
120325-86139
119337-55810293
118327-66652722
117328-5528401
116318-6211557151
115319-51911552111
114309-615144632020
1133010-57115172130
1122910-6394111310301
1112810-72632124214110
1102811-60324154536220
1092711-702121750463501
1082712-61814508547020
1072612-70311481246102300
1062613-60173819271157020
1052513-700530222711812130
1042514-6022026068111547010
1032414-7113260451215812130
1022415-60824022121313173701
1012315-7041911881720812120
1002316-601150044171714183500
992216-71110021131120228920
982217-60701086212015165100
972117-70400521714242110300
962118-6020201282920168200
952018-7011074251622167200
942019-610312010222215510
931919-7002012517252213410
921920-601072920282110200
911820-70040413262817620
901821-6202717272614510
891721-71031021302210300
881722-6001614252818610
871622-70271831261240
861623-60312232624920
851523-702414292617700
841524-600192231251000
831424-71312372918
821425-613616392932
811325-72413303317
801326-616135319
791428-3171733258
781328-4233815158
771127-7503317
761128-6333333
74928-8100
72930-6100
48045-0100
Total:01321111122445667765443221100000