How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Rangers 5 Flyers 3 -5.7
-0.6
Canadiens 5 Flyers 1 -5.5
-0.6
Red Wings 5 Flyers 1 -5.5
-0.5
Flyers 1 Hurricanes 2 -5.5
-0.6
Thrashers 2 Flyers 1 -5.4
-0.6
Thrashers 5 Flyers 3 -5.2
-0.5
Sharks 5 Flyers 1 -5.0
-0.5
Flyers 0 Oilers 5 -5.0
-0.5
Flyers 2 Canadiens 4 -4.9
-0.5
Ducks 3 Flyers 1 -4.9
-0.5
Flyers 2 Stars 5 -4.8
-0.5
Blackhawks 6 Flyers 4 -4.7
-0.5
Flames 6 Flyers 4 -4.5
-0.5
Flyers 5 Penguins 3 +4.5
+0.5
Kings 3 Flyers 2 -4.5
-0.5
Flyers 2 Thrashers 0 +4.3
+0.4
Bruins 3 Flyers 8 +4.2
+0.4
Flyers 6 Hurricanes 3 +4.2
+0.4
Lightning 3 Flyers 4 +4.2
+0.4
Flyers 4 Panthers 1 +4.2
+0.4
Flyers 4 Rangers 2 +4.1
+0.4
Rangers 2 Flyers 3 +4.1
+0.4
Flyers 5 Devils 2 +4.0
+0.4
Canucks 1 Flyers 5 +4.0
+0.4
Devils 0 Flyers 1 +3.9
+0.4
Flyers 3 Capitals 0 +3.9
+0.4
Flyers 4 Thrashers 3 +3.9
+0.4
Blue Jackets 5 Flyers 6 +3.8
+0.4
Flyers 5 Sharks 3 +3.8
+0.4
Flyers 4 Blue Jackets 3 +3.7
+0.4
Flyers 5 Capitals 4 (ot)+3.7
+0.4
Lightning 0 Flyers 4 +3.6
+0.4
Flyers 2 Flames 0 +3.6
+0.4
Blues 1 Flyers 3 +3.6
+0.4
Predators 3 Flyers 5 +3.6
+0.4
Flyers 2 Ducks 1 (ot)+3.5
+0.3
Flyers 5 Blackhawks 3 +3.5
+0.4
Flyers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)+3.4
+0.3
Stars 2 Rangers 1 (so)+2.5
*+0.2
Canucks 6 Hurricanes 5 +1.1
Bruins 1 Sharks 2 (ot)*-1.0
Stars 1 Senators 2 -0.9
Red Wings 6 Penguins 5 (so)*-0.9
Flyers 4 Wild 5 (ot)*-0.8
*-0.1
Hurricanes 4 Canucks 1 -0.8
Maple Leafs 0 Devils 1 +0.8
Kings 7 Rangers 3 +0.8
Oilers 5 Panthers 3 +0.8
Wild 3 Capitals 2 +0.8
Stars 4 Penguins 2 +0.7
Islanders 3 Wild 2 *-0.7
Panthers 2 Blue Jackets 1 *-0.6
Blackhawks 1 Canucks 3 *-0.6
Coyotes 5 Hurricanes 4 *+0.5
Sabres 4 Avalanche 0 *-0.5
Flames 0 Rangers 5 *-0.4
Sabres 2 Penguins 3 *+0.4
Rangers 5 Kings 4 (ot)*-0.4
Maple Leafs 1 Rangers 2 *+0.4
Flames 2 Penguins 1 (ot)*+0.3
Flyers 5 Bruins 6 (so)*-0.3
*-0.1
Hurricanes 3 Flyers 2 (so)*-0.3
*-0.1
Sabres 7 Ducks 0 *-0.2
Hurricanes 1 Lightning 2 *+0.2
Flames 3 Sabres 5 *-0.2
Canadiens 4 Panthers 2 *-0.2
Stars 4 Flyers 3 (ot)*-0.0
Devils 2 Flames 4 +0.1
Islanders 2 Kings 3 +0.1
Devils 2 Panthers 4 +0.0
Maple Leafs 1 Devils 4 -0.0
Predators 1 Bruins 4 *-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Flyers vs Senators+3.6+3.2+3.3*+0.1-1.2-4.7
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.4
Penguins vs Flyers-4.4-1.1*-0.2+3.7+3.3+3.2
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Senators vs Flyers-4.6*-0.3*-1.2+3.0+3.2+3.4
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Penguins vs Flyers-4.5*-0.3*-0.8+2.8+3.0+3.4
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Flyers vs Penguins+3.4+3.0+3.1*-0.3-1.0-4.4
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Capitals vs Flyers-4.4*-0.4*-1.1+2.8+3.0+3.4
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Capitals vs Flyers-4.5*-0.6*+0.2+3.0+3.1+3.3
-0.4-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Hurricanes vs Flyers-4.4*-0.9*-0.5+3.1+3.3+3.3
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Flyers vs Lightning+3.4+2.9+3.4*-0.9*-0.8-4.3
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Senators vs Flyers-4.4*+0.0*-0.4+2.3+2.9+3.3
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Bruins vs Flyers-4.3*-0.8*+0.3+3.3+2.8+3.2
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Flyers vs Senators+3.3+2.2+3.2*-1.2*+0.2-4.3
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.0-0.4
Flyers vs Lightning+3.2+3.3+3.0*-1.1-1.1-4.1
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.4
Flyers vs Devils+2.9+2.6+3.2*-0.8*+0.6-4.1
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.0-0.4
Devils vs Flyers-3.9*-0.7*-0.5+3.4+3.1+2.9
-0.4-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Flyers vs Sabres+3.2+2.4+2.5*-0.8*-0.4-4.1
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.4
Islanders vs Flyers-3.5*-0.6*+0.2+3.8+2.2+2.5
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.2+0.3
Flyers vs Bruins+3.2+2.6+2.0*-0.7*-0.4-4.0
+0.3+0.2+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Maple Leafs vs Flyers-4.1*-0.3*-0.6+2.9+2.7+3.1
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Flyers vs Canadiens+3.0+2.9+2.9*-0.2*-0.6-4.1
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Sabres vs Flyers-4.1*-0.5*-0.9+3.0+3.1+3.0
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Flyers vs Predators+2.6+3.3+2.6*-0.3*-0.4-3.8
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Flyers vs Sabres+3.0+2.6+2.6*-0.5*-0.5-4.0
+0.3+0.3+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.4
Flyers vs Rangers+2.8+3.0+2.9*-0.8*+0.1-4.0
+0.4+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.5
Oilers vs Flyers-4.0*-0.4*+0.0+3.0+3.1+2.8
-0.4-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Panthers vs Flyers-3.8*-0.4*-0.3+3.1+3.1+2.7
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Maple Leafs vs Flyers-4.0*-0.2*-0.5+2.5+2.6+3.0
-0.4*-0.0*-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.3
Sabres vs Flyers-4.0*-0.7*+0.2+2.5+3.0+2.9
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Wild vs Flyers-4.0*-0.2*+0.1+2.9+2.7+2.9
-0.4*-0.0*+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Flyers vs Kings+2.6+3.0+3.0*-0.2*+0.1-3.9
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Flyers vs Blues+2.8+2.7+3.0*-0.9*+0.0-3.9
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Flyers vs Panthers+2.9+2.8+2.7*-0.3*-0.3-4.0
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Flyers vs Canucks+2.9+2.7+2.5*+0.7*-0.7-3.9
+0.3+0.3+0.3*+0.1*-0.1-0.4
Panthers vs Flyers-3.8*-0.6*-0.9+2.9+3.0+2.9
-0.4*-0.0*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Flyers vs Maple Leafs+2.9+2.7+2.9*+0.6*-0.7-3.9
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Avalanche vs Flyers-3.9*-0.5*-0.0+2.5+2.7+2.9
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Flyers vs Avalanche+2.6+2.8+3.0*-0.2*-0.3-3.7
+0.3+0.3+0.3*+0.0*-0.0-0.4
Islanders vs Flyers-3.7*-0.4*-0.1+3.0+2.5+2.7
-0.4*-0.1-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Flyers vs Coyotes+2.9+2.4+2.1-1.7*-0.0-3.7
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Canadiens vs Flyers-3.8*-0.3*-0.1+2.7+2.9+2.7
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Flyers vs Islanders+2.7+2.7+2.8-1.5*+0.0-3.8
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Coyotes vs Flyers-3.6*-0.4*+0.8*+1.4+2.9+2.6
-0.4*-0.1*+0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
Flyers vs Islanders+2.5+2.6+2.8*-0.4*-0.4-3.5
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Flyers vs Maple Leafs+2.7+2.4+2.5*-1.1*+0.1-3.6
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.0-0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Flyers finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
124-140In10024*
123325-7In91911*
122337-4In7423335*
121327-5In8513253*
120317-6In7122791*
119318-5In74187149*
118308-6In612712226*
117309-5In5034160329*
116299-6In43360200523*
1152910-5In32401261793*
1142810-6In254223011,113*
1132710-7In174123731,542*
1122711-6In1238341601,953*
1112611-7In7345449002,682*
1102612-6In4296461413,238*
1092512-7In22274522203,882*
1082513-6In11694327404,570*
1072413-7In01183537915,221*
1062414-6In087284015205,675*
1052314-7100.0%0472043224006,186*
1042315-6100.0251439318106,435*
1032215-799.8148353714202,811*
2316-5In14932381423,659*
1022216-699.3134223924613,939*
2317-499.4134253922612,665*
1012116-798.202215373011203,400*
2217-598.002216363012203,037*
1002117-695.601193035194005,962*
992017-789.41042135289105,458*
982018-681.400213323516204,844*
971918-769.50017263625504,156*
961919-653.200316343511103,589*
951819-739.30019294018302,961*
941820-627.205224127502,279*
931720-717.5021539321011,801*
921721-67.7017324316101,357*
911621-73.203234724401,084*
901622-63.50316403280719*
891522-71.1193934152552*
881523-6Out52747192341*
871423-7Out422382870227*
861424-6Out116383214177*
851425-5Out17334811111*
841325-6Out2313133251*
831225-7Out31942221436*
821226-6Out1742291324*
811227-5Out13731315*
801127-6Out33673
791128-5Out1001
52-77Out10010*
Total:85.7%28315181613108420000100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Rangers 5 Flyers 3 +1.2
Thrashers 2 Flyers 1 +1.1
Canadiens 5 Flyers 1 +1.1
Flyers 1 Hurricanes 2 +1.1
Red Wings 5 Flyers 1 +1.1
Ducks 3 Flyers 1 +1.1
Flyers 0 Oilers 5 +1.1
Thrashers 5 Flyers 3 +1.1
Flyers 2 Stars 5 +1.1
Sharks 5 Flyers 1 +1.1
Flyers 2 Canadiens 4 +1.1
Flames 6 Flyers 4 +1.0
Kings 3 Flyers 2 +1.0
Blackhawks 6 Flyers 4 +1.0
Flyers 5 Penguins 3 -0.9
Flyers 4 Rangers 2 -0.9
Canucks 1 Flyers 5 -0.9
Rangers 2 Flyers 3 -0.9
Flyers 4 Panthers 1 -0.9
Flyers 5 Devils 2 -0.9
Flyers 2 Thrashers 0 -0.8
Bruins 3 Flyers 8 -0.8
Flyers 6 Hurricanes 3 -0.8
Devils 0 Flyers 1 -0.8
Lightning 3 Flyers 4 -0.8
Blue Jackets 5 Flyers 6 -0.8
Flyers 5 Sharks 3 -0.8
Flyers 5 Capitals 4 (ot)-0.8
Blues 1 Flyers 3 -0.8
Flyers 4 Blue Jackets 3 -0.8
Flyers 3 Capitals 0 -0.8
Flyers 2 Flames 0 -0.8
Lightning 0 Flyers 4 -0.8
Flyers 4 Thrashers 3 -0.8
Predators 3 Flyers 5 -0.8
Flyers 5 Blackhawks 3 -0.8
Flyers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)-0.7
Flyers 2 Ducks 1 (ot)-0.7
Stars 2 Rangers 1 (so)*-0.3
Lightning 3 Flames 4 (so)*-0.2
Red Wings 6 Penguins 5 (so)+0.2
Flyers 4 Wild 5 (ot)+0.2
Canadiens 4 Coyotes 3 (so)*-0.2
Hurricanes 3 Flyers 2 (so)*+0.2
Islanders 3 Wild 2 +0.2
Maple Leafs 4 Blue Jackets 3 (so)+0.2
Canucks 2 Devils 3 (so)*+0.2
Flyers 5 Bruins 6 (so)*+0.1
Devils 1 Blackhawks 2 -0.1
Rangers 3 Sharks 2 +0.1
Devils 1 Capitals 5 -0.1
Stars 4 Flyers 3 (ot)*+0.1
Sharks 1 Canucks 3 -0.1
Blackhawks 4 Stars 6 *-0.1
Rangers 5 Wild 3 +0.0
Blue Jackets 3 Devils 4 (ot)*-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Flyers vs Rangers-0.7-0.7-0.6*+0.1+0.2+0.9
Penguins vs Flyers+0.9*+0.2*+0.3-0.5-0.6-0.7
Senators vs Flyers+0.9*+0.1*+0.2-0.6-0.6-0.7
Penguins vs Flyers+0.9*+0.2+0.2-0.7-0.7-0.7
Flyers vs Senators-0.7-0.7-0.7*+0.1+0.2+0.9
Flyers vs Penguins-0.7-0.6-0.7*+0.0+0.3+0.9
Senators vs Flyers+0.9+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.7
Bruins vs Flyers+0.8*+0.1*+0.0-0.7-0.5-0.6
Sabres vs Flyers+0.9+0.2*+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.7
Flyers vs Sabres-0.7-0.7-0.5*+0.2+0.2+0.9
Flyers vs Sabres-0.7-0.6-0.6*+0.2+0.2+0.8
Hurricanes vs Flyers+0.8*+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.7-0.6
Capitals vs Flyers+0.9+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.6
Capitals vs Flyers+0.8+0.2*+0.2-0.6-0.6-0.7
Flyers vs Senators-0.7-0.5-0.6+0.3*+0.1+0.8
Flyers vs Devils-0.6-0.6-0.7*+0.2+0.1+0.8
Sabres vs Flyers+0.8+0.1+0.2-0.6-0.6-0.6
Flyers vs Lightning-0.6-0.6-0.6*+0.2*+0.1+0.8
Flyers vs Canadiens-0.6-0.6-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.8
Flyers vs Kings-0.6-0.6-0.6*+0.2*+0.0+0.8
Flyers vs Canucks-0.6-0.6-0.6*-0.1*+0.1+0.8
Coyotes vs Flyers+0.8+0.1*-0.0-0.5-0.7-0.6
Islanders vs Flyers+0.8*+0.1*+0.1-0.7-0.5-0.6
Wild vs Flyers+0.8*+0.1*-0.0-0.6-0.5-0.6
Flyers vs Lightning-0.6-0.6-0.6*+0.2*+0.2+0.8
Devils vs Flyers+0.8+0.2*+0.2-0.6-0.6-0.6
Flyers vs Bruins-0.6-0.5-0.6*+0.1*+0.1+0.8
Flyers vs Predators-0.6-0.7-0.6*+0.2+0.2+0.8
Maple Leafs vs Flyers+0.8*+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.6
Islanders vs Flyers+0.8+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.6
Flyers vs Blues-0.6-0.5-0.6*+0.1*+0.1+0.8
Flyers vs Coyotes-0.6-0.5-0.4*+0.2*+0.0+0.8
Flyers vs Avalanche-0.6-0.6-0.6*-0.0*+0.1+0.8
Maple Leafs vs Flyers+0.8*+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.6
Oilers vs Flyers+0.8+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.6
Panthers vs Flyers+0.8*+0.1*+0.2-0.6-0.6-0.6
Flyers vs Panthers-0.6-0.6-0.5+0.1*+0.1+0.8
Avalanche vs Flyers+0.8+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.6
Flyers vs Islanders-0.6-0.6-0.6+0.2+0.1+0.8
Flyers vs Maple Leafs-0.6-0.5-0.6*+0.1*+0.0+0.8
Panthers vs Flyers+0.8+0.1*+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.6
Canadiens vs Flyers+0.8*+0.1*+0.1-0.5-0.6-0.6
Flyers vs Maple Leafs-0.6-0.5-0.5*+0.0+0.1+0.8
Flyers vs Islanders-0.6-0.6-0.5*+0.1*+0.1+0.8
Penguins vs Blue Jackets+0.1*+0.1+0.3+0.0*+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
124-140100
123325-7919
122337-474233
121327-5796132
120317-6674227
119318-5659187
118308-6491227012
117309-539113311510
116299-6301335102000
1152910-5201238212511
1142810-6111439322911
1132710-761135523343
1122711-631030830356500
1112611-7162311503499000
1102612-60316136032131401
1092512-70291371271821120
1082513-601511712023244400
1072413-7029621124288901
1062414-601753523271314120
1052314-70044321822211934000
1042315-6022311314252478010
1032215-7113087262314131200
1022216-6112053211722194601
2115-8012422118222046010
1012116-700221151027211011120
1002117-60011095251817163400
992017-7010042191224208920
982018-60002012626201514400
971918-70010722314221810200
961919-6000311572720177200
951819-700109325172115620
941820-60512110222213510
931720-70201551625211141
921721-6017292326191110
911621-703131328251871
901622-603261727271431
891522-710292429239210
881523-6141225331861
871423-7352131201451
861424-6128273120102
851425-5241626361421
841325-61016293762
831225-76836251411
821226-681754138
811227-513274713
801127-63367
791128-5100
771029-5100
761030-4100
52044-0100
Total:114321789988665543221110000000