"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Rangers 4 Thrashers 2 -5.7
-0.6
Hurricanes 3 Thrashers 2 -5.6
-0.6
Islanders 2 Thrashers 1 -5.4
-0.5
Sabres 5 Thrashers 4 -5.4
-0.5
Thrashers 4 Penguins 5 -5.4
-0.5
Bruins 3 Thrashers 1 -5.4
-0.5
Flyers 4 Thrashers 3 -5.3
-0.5
Sabres 5 Thrashers 1 -5.3
-0.6
Stars 2 Thrashers 1 -5.3
-0.5
Oilers 4 Thrashers 3 -5.1
-0.5
Flyers 2 Thrashers 0 -5.1
-0.5
Thrashers 1 Wild 3 -5.1
-0.5
Red Wings 5 Thrashers 0 -5.0
-0.5
Thrashers 1 Blue Jackets 2 -5.0
-0.5
Thrashers 2 Canucks 5 -4.9
-0.5
Thrashers 7 Panthers 5 +4.6
+0.5
Thrashers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)+4.5
+0.4
Thrashers 7 Senators 2 +4.4
+0.4
Devils 2 Thrashers 3 +4.4
+0.4
Thrashers 4 Capitals 0 +4.3
+0.5
Capitals 2 Thrashers 4 +4.3
+0.5
Lightning 5 Thrashers 7 +4.2
+0.5
Thrashers 2 Flyers 1 +4.2
+0.4
Thrashers 4 Lightning 3 +4.2
+0.4
Thrashers 3 Sabres 2 (ot)+4.1
+0.4
Thrashers 5 Panthers 3 +4.1
+0.4
Blue Jackets 3 Thrashers 5 +4.1
+0.4
Thrashers 3 Predators 2 +4.0
+0.4
Thrashers 5 Flyers 3 +4.0
+0.4
Avalanche 1 Thrashers 3 +3.9
+0.4
Thrashers 5 Canadiens 4 (so)+3.9
+0.4
Thrashers 5 Oilers 3 +3.9
+0.4
Thrashers 4 Blackhawks 1 +3.9
+0.4
Sharks 1 Thrashers 2 +3.9
+0.4
Thrashers 3 Ducks 2 +3.8
+0.4
Thrashers 3 Bruins 2 (ot)+3.5
+0.4
Coyotes 0 Thrashers 6 +3.5
+0.4
Thrashers 6 Kings 4 +3.4
+0.3
Predators 6 Blues 5 (so)+2.2
Maple Leafs 1 Sharks 2 +1.0
Thrashers 3 Flames 4 (ot)*-0.9
*-0.1
Capitals 2 Blackhawks 1 (ot)*-0.9
Kings 3 Capitals 2 +0.7
Panthers 6 Kings 4 *-0.7
Kings 5 Thrashers 4 (ot)*-0.5
*-0.1
Islanders 2 Kings 3 *+0.5
Avalanche 1 Rangers 2 (so)*+0.5
Panthers 1 Senators 3 *+0.5
Islanders 2 Hurricanes 4 *+0.3
Capitals 3 Bruins 2 *-0.3
-0.0
Panthers 0 Canadiens 3 *+0.2
Lightning 5 Maple Leafs 2 *+0.2
+0.0
Hurricanes 3 Penguins 2 *+0.2
Avalanche 3 Blue Jackets 4 (so)+0.2
Hurricanes 3 Flyers 2 (so)*-0.2
Panthers 3 Sharks 2 (ot)-0.1
Capitals 3 Senators 4 +0.1
Rangers 7 Maple Leafs 0 +0.0
Panthers 2 Islanders 1 *-0.0
Flyers 1 Hurricanes 2 +0.0
Panthers 3 Devils 1 *-0.0
Hurricanes 4 Canucks 1 *-0.0
Hurricanes 5 Canadiens 2 *+0.0
Sharks 3 Hurricanes 4 *-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thrashers vs Senators+5.1+4.6+5.4*-1.5-1.4-6.6
+0.4+0.3+0.4*-0.1-0.1-0.5
Penguins vs Thrashers-6.6*-0.5*-1.6+3.2+4.0+5.3
-0.5-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Thrashers vs Hurricanes+5.2+4.5+4.4*-1.1-1.5-6.6
+0.4+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.5
Hurricanes vs Thrashers-6.3-1.8*-1.4+3.5+4.5+5.1
-0.5-0.2-0.2+0.3+0.3+0.4
Senators vs Thrashers-6.3-1.8*-1.4+3.9+4.7+5.1
-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Thrashers vs Lightning+4.9+4.2+4.4*-0.9-1.3-6.4
+0.4+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.5
Thrashers vs Hurricanes+5.0+4.0+4.5*-1.4*-0.9-6.3
+0.4+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.5
Senators vs Thrashers-6.3*-0.1-2.0+3.5+4.0+4.9
-0.5-0.1*-0.2+0.3+0.3+0.4
Penguins vs Thrashers-6.2-1.2*-1.0+4.0+4.3+4.9
-0.5*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Maple Leafs vs Thrashers-5.8*-0.4*+0.5+5.3+4.3+3.8
-0.4*-0.1*+0.0+0.4+0.4+0.3
Thrashers vs Penguins+5.1+3.7+3.0*-1.4-1.6-6.0
+0.4+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.1-0.5
Canadiens vs Thrashers-5.7*-0.8*-0.4+5.2+3.9+4.1
-0.5-0.1*-0.0+0.4+0.3+0.3
Capitals vs Thrashers-6.2*-0.7*-0.1+4.6+3.8+4.7
-0.5-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.4
Lightning vs Thrashers-6.1*-1.1*-0.8+4.1+4.6+4.7
-0.5*-0.1*-0.1+0.4+0.4+0.4
Predators vs Thrashers-5.7*-0.8*-0.2+5.1+4.9+3.9
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.4+0.3
Thrashers vs Sabres+4.5+4.8+4.1-2.2*-0.7-6.1
+0.3+0.4+0.3*-0.2-0.1-0.5
Canadiens vs Thrashers-5.9*-1.1*-0.3+4.7+4.1+4.5
-0.5-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Maple Leafs vs Thrashers-5.7-1.2*-0.2+4.1+4.8+4.2
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.4+0.3
Thrashers vs Rangers+4.2+3.6+4.7*-0.3*-0.4-5.7
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.0-0.4
Thrashers vs Capitals+4.5+3.8+4.2*-1.4*-0.7-5.9
+0.4+0.3+0.3-0.2-0.1-0.5
Canucks vs Thrashers-5.4*-0.3*-0.7+4.9+3.6+3.8
-0.4-0.0*-0.1+0.4+0.3+0.3
Thrashers vs Maple Leafs+4.5+4.6+3.0*-1.5*-1.2-5.7
+0.4+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.5
Thrashers vs Avalanche+3.9+4.3+4.8-2.0*-0.2-5.5
+0.3+0.3+0.4-0.1*-0.0-0.4
Rangers vs Thrashers-6.0*-0.3*-0.0+4.0+4.3+4.2
-0.5-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Blues vs Thrashers-5.8*-0.8*+0.4+3.6+3.9+4.3
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Thrashers vs Devils+4.0+4.5+4.5*-0.6*-0.9-5.6
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Panthers vs Thrashers-5.7-1.2*-0.3+3.9+3.9+4.4
-0.5-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Thrashers vs Rangers+4.2+4.4+3.5*-0.4*-0.9-5.7
+0.4+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.5
Bruins vs Thrashers-5.7*-0.6*-1.0+3.4+3.9+4.4
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Flames vs Thrashers-5.7*-0.6*-0.4+3.8+4.3+4.1
-0.4*-0.1*-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Thrashers vs Canadiens+4.3+3.7+4.1*+0.1*-0.7-5.7
+0.3+0.3+0.3*+0.0-0.1-0.5
Islanders vs Thrashers-5.8*+0.0*-0.2+3.8+4.2+4.0
-0.5-0.0*-0.1+0.4+0.3+0.3
Thrashers vs Sharks+3.8+4.3+4.3*-0.2*-0.4-5.5
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Ducks vs Thrashers-5.7*-0.0*+0.1+4.1+3.9+4.1
-0.4*-0.1*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Thrashers vs Islanders+4.5+3.2+3.4*-1.3*-1.2-5.4
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Thrashers vs Islanders+3.9+4.2+3.3*-0.4*+0.0-5.6
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0*-0.0-0.4
Thrashers vs Bruins+4.1+3.8+3.0*-0.6*-0.3-5.6
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Panthers vs Thrashers-5.5*-0.4*-1.3+3.5+3.8+4.2
-0.4*-0.0-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.3
Devils vs Thrashers-5.6*-0.6*+0.8+3.5+3.8+4.1
-0.4*-0.1*+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Thrashers vs Devils+3.9+3.9+4.3*-0.9*-0.5-5.4
+0.3+0.3+0.4-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Blackhawks vs Thrashers-5.4-1.2*-0.3+3.7+4.3+4.0
-0.4*-0.1-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Thrashers vs Blues+4.2+3.4+3.2*-0.4*-0.4-5.5
+0.3+0.3+0.2*-0.0*-0.1-0.4
Thrashers vs Maple Leafs+4.1+3.6+3.9*-0.6*-0.3-5.5
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
Thrashers vs Coyotes+4.1+3.8+4.2-2.3*-0.8-5.3
+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.1-0.0-0.4
Thrashers vs Stars+3.8+3.8+4.1*-0.7*-0.8-5.1
+0.3+0.3+0.4*-0.1*-0.1-0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Thrashers finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
122-138In10019*
121346-5In91911*
120336-6In7618617*
119337-5In792139*
118338-4In7326262*
117328-5In573211101*
116318-6In465131160*
115308-7In3951100280*
114309-6In25571520472*
1133010-5In18572140618*
1122910-6In13493251879*
1112911-5In846406101,232*
1102811-6In336498301,603*
1092711-7In2285595102,183*
1082712-6In12059108202,712*
1072612-7In0136010134003,336*
1062613-6In08579178103,945*
1052513-7In055461714404,687*
1042514-699.9%0247518197105,316*
1032414-799.61393162314305,768*
1022415-699.003021325218106,059*
1012315-797.502318252813206,563*
1002316-694.117042032216006,406*
992216-787.811021431301116,440*
982217-678.70818273518306,223*
972117-765.85004193728605,982*
962118-651.730213343611105,242*
952018-737.221728412024,688*
942019-624.6104204328404,111*
931919-713.8001124136813,341*
921920-67.40017344215202,720*
911820-74.004244623302,374*
901720-82.1002174230811,752*
891721-70.711137371211,361*
881722-60.2063140203989*
871622-70.3032244265799*
861623-6Out115413490505*
851523-7Out1132940151356*
841423-8Out62942221236*
831424-7Out32343264161*
821425-6Out154634596*
811426-5Out1032491073*
801326-6Out634441632*
791327-5Out19433821*
781025-10Out142929297*
771228-5Out1429577*
761128-6Out2020605*
751230-3Out1001
72728-10Out1001
71830-7Out1001
48045-0Out1008
Total:72.6%15222610131413941000100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday, 9/1None
Monday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Hurricanes 3 Thrashers 2 +1.2
Rangers 4 Thrashers 2 +1.1
Sabres 5 Thrashers 1 +1.1
Stars 2 Thrashers 1 +1.1
Thrashers 1 Wild 3 +1.1
Islanders 2 Thrashers 1 +1.1
Bruins 3 Thrashers 1 +1.1
Sabres 5 Thrashers 4 +1.1
Flyers 4 Thrashers 3 +1.1
Oilers 4 Thrashers 3 +1.1
Thrashers 4 Penguins 5 +1.1
Thrashers 2 Canucks 5 +1.1
Flyers 2 Thrashers 0 +1.1
Thrashers 1 Blue Jackets 2 +1.1
Red Wings 5 Thrashers 0 +1.0
Thrashers 7 Panthers 5 -1.0
Lightning 5 Thrashers 7 -0.9
Thrashers 4 Capitals 0 -0.9
Capitals 2 Thrashers 4 -0.9
Thrashers 5 Canadiens 4 (so)-0.9
Thrashers 4 Lightning 3 -0.9
Thrashers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)-0.9
Devils 2 Thrashers 3 -0.9
Blue Jackets 3 Thrashers 5 -0.9
Thrashers 7 Senators 2 -0.9
Thrashers 3 Ducks 2 -0.9
Avalanche 1 Thrashers 3 -0.8
Thrashers 5 Panthers 3 -0.8
Thrashers 5 Oilers 3 -0.8
Thrashers 5 Flyers 3 -0.8
Thrashers 2 Flyers 1 -0.8
Thrashers 4 Blackhawks 1 -0.8
Sharks 1 Thrashers 2 -0.8
Thrashers 3 Predators 2 -0.8
Thrashers 3 Sabres 2 (ot)-0.8
Coyotes 0 Thrashers 6 -0.8
Thrashers 3 Bruins 2 (ot)-0.8
Thrashers 6 Kings 4 -0.7
Avalanche 3 Blue Jackets 4 (so)-0.5
Hurricanes 3 Flyers 2 (so)*+0.4
Blues 2 Capitals 3 (so)+0.3
Stars 5 Blackhawks 6 (so)*-0.3
Capitals 2 Wild 3 (so)+0.2
Blackhawks 8 Wild 7 (so)+0.2
Thrashers 3 Flames 4 (ot)*+0.2
Flyers 5 Capitals 4 (ot)*+0.2
Avalanche 1 Rangers 2 (so)*-0.2
Hurricanes 5 Ducks 4 (so)*+0.2
Oilers 5 Red Wings 4 (so)*+0.2
Kings 5 Thrashers 4 (ot)*+0.2
Senators 5 Panthers 3 -0.2
Hurricanes 4 Sabres 3 (so)*+0.2
Sabres 2 Blackhawks 3 (so)*+0.2
Panthers 3 Sharks 2 (ot)*+0.2
Capitals 5 Panthers 4 (so)*+0.2
Islanders 4 Ducks 3 (ot)*+0.2
Flyers 2 Ducks 1 (ot)*+0.2
Kings 3 Capitals 2 -0.1
Capitals 3 Senators 4 -0.1
Maple Leafs 4 Canucks 3 (ot)-0.1
Devils 1 Capitals 5 *+0.1
Panthers 2 Islanders 1 *+0.1
Panthers 3 Devils 1 *+0.1
Hurricanes 6 Senators 1 *-0.0
Kings 3 Flyers 2 *-0.0
Maple Leafs 3 Islanders 2 *-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thrashers vs Hurricanes-0.9-0.7-0.6+0.2+0.3+1.1
Thrashers vs Hurricanes-0.9-0.7-0.8+0.2+0.2+1.1
Thrashers vs Capitals-0.9-0.7-0.6*+0.3+0.2+1.1
Hurricanes vs Thrashers+1.1+0.3*+0.3-0.7-0.7-0.9
Capitals vs Thrashers+1.1+0.2*+0.1-0.7-0.7-0.9
Penguins vs Thrashers+1.0+0.1+0.2-0.6-0.7-0.8
Thrashers vs Avalanche-0.7-0.7-0.9*+0.2+0.0+1.0
Lightning vs Thrashers+1.0+0.2*+0.2-0.8-0.8-0.8
Thrashers vs Senators-0.8-0.7-0.8*+0.2+0.2+1.0
Canucks vs Thrashers+0.9+0.1+0.2-0.9-0.6-0.7
Canadiens vs Thrashers+1.0+0.2+0.1-0.8-0.6-0.7
Thrashers vs Lightning-0.8-0.7-0.7*+0.1*+0.2+1.0
Thrashers vs Sabres-0.7-0.8-0.7*+0.4+0.2+1.0
Thrashers vs Penguins-0.8-0.7-0.6*+0.2+0.2+1.0
Senators vs Thrashers+1.0+0.1*+0.3-0.7-0.6-0.8
Senators vs Thrashers+1.0+0.2+0.3-0.6-0.7-0.8
Thrashers vs Devils-0.7-0.7-0.8+0.1*+0.1+0.9
Maple Leafs vs Thrashers+1.0*+0.2*-0.0-0.8-0.8-0.6
Maple Leafs vs Thrashers+1.0*+0.2*+0.1-0.6-0.8-0.7
Penguins vs Thrashers+1.0+0.2*+0.2-0.6-0.7-0.8
Islanders vs Thrashers+1.0+0.1*+0.2-0.8-0.7-0.7
Thrashers vs Maple Leafs-0.8-0.7-0.7*+0.2+0.2+1.0
Thrashers vs Canadiens-0.7-0.7-0.6*-0.1+0.1+1.0
Thrashers vs Rangers-0.7-0.7-0.6*+0.1+0.2+1.0
Predators vs Thrashers+0.9*+0.1*+0.1-0.7-0.8-0.7
Canadiens vs Thrashers+1.0*+0.2*+0.1-0.7-0.7-0.7
Flames vs Thrashers+1.0*+0.2*+0.1-0.6-0.8-0.7
Thrashers vs Coyotes-0.7-0.8-0.7*+0.3+0.1+1.0
Ducks vs Thrashers+1.0+0.1*+0.1-0.7-0.7-0.7
Panthers vs Thrashers+1.0+0.2+0.1-0.7-0.7-0.7
Rangers vs Thrashers+1.0+0.1*+0.0-0.7-0.7-0.7
Thrashers vs Stars-0.7-0.7-0.8*+0.1*+0.1+0.9
Thrashers vs Sharks-0.7-0.7-0.7*+0.1*+0.1+1.0
Thrashers vs Rangers-0.7-0.6-0.7+0.1+0.1+1.0
Blackhawks vs Thrashers+1.0*+0.2+0.1-0.7-0.7-0.7
Blues vs Thrashers+1.0+0.1*+0.0-0.6-0.7-0.7
Thrashers vs Blues-0.7-0.7-0.5*+0.1+0.1+1.0
Bruins vs Thrashers+1.0+0.1+0.1-0.6-0.7-0.7
Devils vs Thrashers+1.0+0.1-0.0-0.6-0.7-0.7
Thrashers vs Maple Leafs-0.7-0.7-0.7+0.2*+0.1+0.9
Thrashers vs Islanders-0.7-0.6-0.7*+0.3*+0.2+0.9
Thrashers vs Islanders-0.7-0.7-0.6*+0.1*+0.1+0.9
Thrashers vs Devils-0.7-0.7-0.6*+0.1*+0.1+0.9
Panthers vs Thrashers+0.9*+0.0*+0.2-0.6-0.7-0.7

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
123-138100
122334-88020
121346-5919
120336-6716186
119337-572821
118338-46310262
117328-546123211
116318-6341147431
115308-72712474100
114309-614115441520
1133010-57114982140
1122910-64103811320411
1112911-52632133915110
1102811-603211648162300
1092711-7021315504635010
1082712-61713528557120
1072612-702114712461124000
1062613-60173918271348010
1052513-700431231610812140
1042514-60022126058101637010
1032414-71132503412167131300
1022415-608230221113121837010
1012315-7041910791520812120
1002316-62150044161814193500
992216-71110211211192371020
982217-6008108621201516510
972117-7050004218152221102000
962118-603021128262118720
952018-72107325172315610
942019-610411911232213510
931919-7001012517252411400
921920-6001072102227209300
911820-70041414262717610
901720-80020162027261341
891721-710031023282310200
881722-6001515272717710
871622-701182124261551
861623-6041220322381
851523-7161829271440
841423-81382431258
831424-781532271521
821425-672638236
811426-515182636121
801326-6313342228
791327-5519332914
781025-1014292929
771228-514294314
761128-6202060
751230-3100
72728-10100
71830-7100
48045-0100
Total:00321211122355667765443211100000