Real Madrid Title Chances Season2 50/50
Lost to Manchester United 0-1, title odds down 4.9 to 4.3%
7 points 2-1-2
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain
| Week of 3/12 | 100.0* | Chance wins title | 100.0* | Title | 100.0* | League 1 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Real Madrid 1 Chelsea 4 | -5.7 | -5.7 | +3.9 | -0.7 | ||||
| Manchester United 5 Wolfsburg 0 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -0.6 | |||||
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||||||||
| Liverpool vs Arsenal | -0.3+0.1+0.3 | -0.3+0.1+0.3 | -0.7-0.2+0.8 | |||||
| FC Bayern vs Tottenham | -0.2+0.1+0.2 | -0.2+0.1+0.2 | -0.7-0.4+0.9 | |||||
| Manchester City vs PSG | -0.2+0.2+0.1 | -0.2+0.2+0.1 | -0.3-0.1+0.3 | |||||
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||||||||
| Week of 3/19 | 100.0* | Chance wins title | 100.0* | Title | 100.0* | League 1 | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Wolfsburg vs Real Madrid | -2.1-0.9+2.5 | -2.1-0.9+2.5 | +7.1+0.1-7.2 | -0.7-0.1+0.7 | ||||
| Arsenal vs Manchester United | +0.7+0.3-0.9 | +0.7+0.3-0.9 | +1.0-0.2-1.0 | |||||
| PSG vs Liverpool | +0.2+0.2-0.3 | +0.2+0.2-0.3 | +0.3-0.1-0.3 | |||||
| Chelsea vs Tottenham | -0.2+0.1+0.2 | -0.2+0.1+0.2 | -0.8-0.4+1.0 | |||||
| Manchester City vs FC Bayern | -0.2+0.2+0.0 | -0.2+0.2+0.0 | -0.2*-0.1+0.3 | |||||
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Chances based on how well the Real Madrid finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||||||
| If finish: | Chance | Chance will finish season at seed | League | |||||||||||||||||||||
| TP | W | - | D | - | L | wins title | Title | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 1 | Count | |||||
| 46 | 13 | - | 0 | - | 0 | Yes | Yes | 100 | No | 2,484 | ||||||||||||||
| 44 | 12 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 99.5 | % | 99.5 | % | 100 | 0 | No | 420 | |||||||||||
| 43 | 12 | - | 0 | - | 1 | 98.8 | 98.8 | 99 | 1 | No | 822 | |||||||||||||
| 42 | 11 | - | 2 | - | 0 | 98.5 | 98.5 | 98 | 2 | No | 1,258 | |||||||||||||
| 41 | 11 | - | 1 | - | 1 | 96.9 | 96.9 | 97 | 3 | No | 5,034 | |||||||||||||
| 40 | 11 | - | 0 | - | 2 | 93.9 | 93.9 | 94 | 6 | 0 | No | 7,292 | * | |||||||||||
| 39 | 10 | - | 2 | - | 1 | 90.4 | 90.4 | 90 | 9 | 0 | No | 14,167 | ||||||||||||
| 38 | 10 | - | 1 | - | 2 | 83.8 | 83.8 | 84 | 16 | 0 | No | 30,516 | * | |||||||||||
| 37 | 9 | - | 3 | - | 1 | 76.4 | 76.4 | 76 | 23 | 1 | No | 41,509 | * | |||||||||||
| 36 | 9 | - | 2 | - | 2 | 67.2 | 67.2 | 67 | 31 | 2 | 0 | No | 72,351 | * | ||||||||||
| 35 | 9 | - | 1 | - | 3 | 53.7 | 53.7 | 54 | 41 | 6 | 0 | 0 | No | 118,569 | * | |||||||||
| 34 | 8 | - | 3 | - | 2 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 41 | 48 | 11 | 1 | 0 | No | 151,664 | * | |||||||||
| 33 | 8 | - | 2 | - | 3 | 27.2 | 27.2 | 27 | 51 | 20 | 2 | 0 | No | 229,390 | * | |||||||||
| 32 | 8 | - | 1 | - | 4 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13 | 46 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 0 | No | 208,226 | |||||||||
| 7 | - | 4 | - | 2 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18 | 49 | 28 | 4 | 0 | No | 104,866 | * | ||||||||||
| 31 | 7 | - | 3 | - | 3 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7 | 37 | 41 | 14 | 1 | 0 | No | 373,267 | * | ||||||||
| 30 | 7 | - | 2 | - | 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2 | 22 | 44 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 0 | No | 489,123 | * | |||||||
| 29 | 7 | - | 1 | - | 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 40 | 16 | 2 | 0 | No | 333,405 | ||||||||
| 6 | - | 4 | - | 3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1 | 13 | 39 | 36 | 11 | 1 | 0 | No | 247,683 | * | ||||||||
| 28 | 6 | - | 3 | - | 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 43 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 0 | No | 484,107 | |||||||
| 7 | - | 0 | - | 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 41 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 0 | No | 147,556 | * | |||||||
| 27 | 6 | - | 2 | - | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 40 | 17 | 2 | 0 | No | 581,900 | |||||||
| 5 | - | 5 | - | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 38 | 36 | 11 | 1 | 0 | No | 147,247 | * | |||||||
| 26 | 6 | - | 1 | - | 6 | No | No | 0 | 2 | 15 | 39 | 34 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | % | 388,322 | ||||||
| 5 | - | 4 | - | 4 | No | No | 0 | 3 | 21 | 42 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 377,310 | * | |||||||
| 25 | 5 | - | 3 | - | 5 | No | No | 0 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 42 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 582,343 | ||||||
| 6 | - | 0 | - | 7 | No | No | 0 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 41 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 0.1 | 171,679 | * | |||||||
| 24 | 5 | - | 2 | - | 6 | No | No | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 38 | 37 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | 582,492 | ||||||
| 4 | - | 5 | - | 4 | No | No | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 42 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 184,413 | * | ||||||
| 23 | 4 | - | 4 | - | 5 | No | No | 0 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 44 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 2.5 | 363,093 | |||||||
| 5 | - | 1 | - | 7 | No | No | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 44 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 4.2 | 349,682 | * | |||||||
| 22 | 4 | - | 3 | - | 6 | No | No | 0 | 1 | 12 | 39 | 38 | 10 | 0 | 10.6 | 486,744 | ||||||||
| 5 | - | 0 | - | 8 | No | No | 0 | 1 | 12 | 37 | 38 | 11 | 1 | 11.6 | 143,766 | * | ||||||||
| 21 | 4 | - | 2 | - | 7 | No | No | 0 | 3 | 24 | 46 | 24 | 3 | 26.9 | 418,954 | * | ||||||||
| 3 | - | 5 | - | 5 | No | No | 0 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 45 | 19 | 2 | 20.7 | 144,556 | |||||||||
| 20 | 3 | - | 4 | - | 6 | No | No | 0 | 1 | 14 | 43 | 35 | 6 | 41.5 | 242,539 | |||||||||
| 4 | - | 1 | - | 8 | No | No | 0 | 1 | 11 | 41 | 39 | 8 | 47.7 | 221,344 | * | |||||||||
| 19 | 3 | - | 3 | - | 7 | No | No | 0 | 0 | 5 | 31 | 48 | 15 | 63.2 | 361,085 | * | ||||||||
| 18 | 3 | - | 2 | - | 8 | No | No | 0 | 2 | 20 | 51 | 28 | 78.7 | 282,726 | * | |||||||||
| 17 | 2 | - | 4 | - | 7 | No | No | 0 | 0 | 10 | 47 | 42 | 89.1 | 202,056 | * | |||||||||
| 16 | 2 | - | 3 | - | 8 | No | No | 0 | 5 | 39 | 56 | 95.0 | 134,470 | * | ||||||||||
| 15 | 2 | - | 2 | - | 9 | No | No | 0 | 2 | 29 | 69 | 98.0 | 90,918 | * | ||||||||||
| 14 | 2 | - | 1 | - | 10 | No | No | 0 | 1 | 20 | 79 | 99.3 | 54,911 | * | ||||||||||
| 13 | 1 | - | 3 | - | 9 | No | No | 0 | 13 | 87 | 99.8 | 29,905 | * | |||||||||||
| 12 | 1 | - | 2 | - | 10 | No | No | 0 | 8 | 92 | 99.9 | 16,348 | * | |||||||||||
| 11 | 1 | - | 1 | - | 11 | No | No | 4 | 96 | Yes | 8,108 | * | ||||||||||||
| 10 | 0 | - | 3 | - | 10 | No | No | 2 | 98 | Yes | 3,183 | * | ||||||||||||
| 9 | 0 | - | 2 | - | 11 | No | No | 1 | 99 | Yes | 1,259 | |||||||||||||
| 8 | 0 | - | 1 | - | 12 | No | No | 100 | Yes | 410 | ||||||||||||||
| 7 | 0 | - | 0 | - | 13 | No | No | 0 | 100 | Yes | 2,468 | |||||||||||||
| Total: | 4.3 | % | 4.3 | % | 4 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 14.6 | % | 9,637,940 | |||||||
* Row combines multiple less frequent records.
Points
Chance Will Win Championship
Updated Tuesday, 2023-11-7 1:58 PM Eastern (GMT-05:00)
