"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 5/19100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Palmeiras 3 Bahia 0 -1.1
-5.2
+5.6
-1.0
Atletico-MG 1 Cruzeiro 0 -0.1
*-0.1
Sport Recife 1 Corinthians 1 +0.1
+0.1
-0.1
Parana 0 Gremio 0 +0.2
-0.2
Flamengo 1 Vasco da Gama 1 +0.2
Vitoria 2 Ceara 1 -0.1
America-MG 1 Botafogo 0 *-0.1
+0.1
Sao Paulo 1 Santos 0 *-0.1
+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Internacional vs Chapecoense-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.2+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/27100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Flamengo vs Bahia-0.8-0.3+1.0
-4.5-1.7+5.6
+6.2+1.7-7.3
-0.9-0.3+1.1
Bahia vs Vasco da Gama+1.0-0.3-0.7
+5.6-1.7-4.5
-7.4+1.7+6.3
+1.1-0.3-0.9
Sport Recife vs Atletico-MG+0.0+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.2-0.1-0.2
Atletico-MG vs Flamengo-0.0+0.1+0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
-0.0-0.1+0.1
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras+0.0+0.0-0.1
*+0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.2-0.2-0.1
Internacional vs Corinthians+0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.2-0.2-0.1
Palmeiras vs Sport Recife-0.1+0.2-0.0
-0.1-0.1+0.2
Vasco da Gama vs Parana-0.2+0.1+0.1
-0.2-0.2+0.3
Corinthians vs America-MG-0.1+0.2-0.1
*+0.0-0.1+0.1
Ceara vs Gremio+0.1+0.1-0.2
+0.3-0.2-0.1
Fluminense vs Chapecoense-0.1+0.2*-0.0
-0.1-0.2+0.2
Sao Paulo vs Botafogo-0.1+0.2-0.0
-0.0-0.2+0.1
Gremio vs Fluminense-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
America-MG vs Sao Paulo-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.1
Atletico-PR vs Santos*+0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.2-0.2-0.0
Botafogo vs Vitoria-0.1+0.2-0.0
+0.0-0.2+0.1
Santos vs Cruzeiro-0.1+0.2-0.0
+0.0-0.2+0.1
Chapecoense vs Ceara-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.1-0.2+0.2
Vitoria vs Internacional-0.1+0.2-0.0
+0.0-0.2+0.1
Parana vs Atletico-PR+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.2-0.3+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Bahia finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleLibertadores1234567891011121314151617181920Serie BCount
83-101YesYes100No30,873*
8224-5-399.9%Yes1000No771*
8124-4-499.9Yes1000No1,451*
8023-6-399.7Yes1000No2,658*
7923-5-499.8Yes1000No4,530*
7823-4-599.2Yes991No7,926*
7722-6-499.1Yes991No13,190*
7622-5-598.5Yes9910No21,891*
7522-4-697.7Yes9820No35,005*
7421-6-596.4Yes9640No55,003*
7321-5-694.8Yes9550No85,706*
7220-7-592.0Yes92800No130,276*
7120-6-688.3Yes881100No192,353*
7020-5-783.4Yes831610No280,291*
6919-7-677.1Yes7721200No403,294*
6819-6-769.2Yes6927400No564,774*
6719-5-859.8Yes60336100No778,542*
6618-7-749.0Yes493911100No1,055,753*
6518-6-837.7100.0%3842173000No1,405,697*
6417-8-726.7100.02742246100No1,834,822*
6317-7-817.0100.0173831122000No2,356,090*
6217-6-99.499.9930351961000No2,973,726*
6116-8-84.599.642033271230000No3,683,790*
6016-7-91.798.321127312072000No4,490,203*
5916-6-100.594.3051729281551000No5,374,690*
5815-8-90.184.40182130241231000No6,336,175*
5715-7-100.066.100311232921930000No7,327,447*
5615-6-110.041.6001413252820820000No8,334,270*
5514-8-100.019.20001414252818720000No9,327,411*
5414-7-11No5.80001515262718720000No10,260,746*
5314-6-12No1.1000015152627177200000.0%11,094,168*
5213-8-11No0.100015152627177100000.011,788,675*
5113-7-12No0.000001515262717610000.012,322,473*
5012-9-11No0.000001515262717610000.112,651,169*
4912-8-12No0.000001616272716610001.212,777,901*
4812-7-13NoNo0000161728271551005.412,677,022*
4711-9-12NoNo0000281929261330016.312,357,747*
4611-8-13NoNo000021023302392034.611,838,944*
4511-7-14NoNo00014132731196156.211,141,042*
4410-9-13NoNo00001618312913275.010,303,024*
4310-8-14NoNo0000210263522587.89,348,472*
4210-7-15NoNo000141735321194.98,337,358*
419-9-14NoNo00021029401998.17,289,684*
409-8-15NoNo0001522432999.46,260,568*
399-7-16NoNo000215424199.85,272,794*
388-9-15NoNo000193852100.04,357,742*
378-8-16NoNo00053263100.03,530,014*
368-7-17NoNo0032572100.02,804,235*
357-9-16NoNo0011980100.02,181,277*
347-8-17NoNo0011485100.01,660,658*
337-7-18NoNo001090Yes1,238,458*
326-9-17NoNo00793Yes901,882*
316-8-18NoNo00496Yes643,903*
306-7-19NoNo0397Yes447,960*
295-9-18NoNo0298Yes303,264*
285-8-19NoNo0199Yes202,244*
275-7-20NoNo0199Yes130,129*
264-9-19NoNo0100Yes82,271*
254-8-20NoNo0100Yes49,798*
244-7-21NoNo0100Yes29,813*
234-6-22NoNo0100Yes17,256*
223-8-21NoNo0100Yes9,548*
213-7-22NoNo0100Yes5,172*
203-6-23NoNo0100Yes2,698*
5-19NoNo100Yes32,403*
Total:1.8%17.2%2233344445556667778830.8%241,461,120

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship