How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 7/15100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Nautico 1 Chapecoense 2 +0.1
+1.9
-9.2
+1.2
Chapecoense 0 Guarani 0 -0.1
-1.1
+1.4
-0.3
Cruzeiro 2 Novorizontino 1 -0.3
+0.0
CSA 1 Cruzeiro 1 +0.0
*-0.1
+0.0
Vasco da Gama 1 Ituano 1 *+0.1
*-0.2
+0.0
Guarani 0 Bahia 2 -0.2
-0.7
+0.0
Brusque 1 Gremio 1 +0.2
*-0.1
Bahia 1 CRB 1 +0.2
+0.0
Sport Recife 0 Vila Nova 0 *+0.1
-0.4
Tombense 1 Criciuma 0 *-0.1
Sampaio Correa 3 Vasco da Gama 1 *+0.1
+0.4
Criciuma 1 Ponte Preta 1 -0.4
Gremio 3 Tombense 0 -0.3
Ituano 0 Londrina 0 *-0.2
Novorizontino 2 Operario-PR 1 *-0.1
*-0.0
Vila Nova 1 CSA 2 *+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/22100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Chapecoense vs Gremio+0.1-0.1-0.1
+2.8-0.9-2.2
-7.7+1.7+6.6
+1.2-0.3-1.0
Ituano vs Chapecoense-0.1-0.1+0.1
-1.9-0.9+2.5
+7.3+1.4-8.3
-1.0-0.3+1.2
Cruzeiro vs Bahia+0.2+0.1-0.2
Vila Nova vs Vasco da Gama+0.2+0.1-0.3
+0.6-0.2-0.5
Vasco da Gama vs CRB-0.2+0.1+0.1
-0.3-0.1+0.3
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Gremio vs Ponte Preta-0.3+0.1+0.2
-0.5-0.1+0.6
Sport Recife vs Guarani-0.2+0.1+0.1
-0.5-0.2+0.6
Operario-PR vs Tombense+0.1+0.1-0.2
+0.6-0.2-0.5
Sampaio Correa vs Sport Recife*+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.1-0.1
CRB vs Novorizontino*+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.1-0.0
Criciuma vs CSA-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.3-0.2+0.4
Guarani vs Brusque+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.4-0.3-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Chapecoense finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleSerie A1234567891011121314151617181920Serie CCount
7919-0-098.5%Yes982No14,064
7718-1-090.0Yes9010No10
7618-0-194.7Yes955No19
7517-2-093.6Yes946No78
7417-1-186.3Yes8614No262
7316-3-082.6Yes8317No453*
7216-2-178.7Yes79211No1,335
7116-1-271.4Yes712720No2,903*
7015-3-161.8Yes623620No5,766*
6915-2-253.1Yes534250No12,337*
6815-1-343.7Yes444880No22,333*
6714-3-233.3100.0%33521310No40,646*
6614-2-324.899.9255320200No73,612*
6513-4-216.999.7175028500No121,424*
6413-3-310.399.01044359100No200,242*
6313-2-45.897.46354016200No316,813*
6212-4-32.793.532542256100No478,820*
6112-3-41.186.11153733122000No713,555*
6011-5-30.474.0082937205100No1,019,597*
5911-4-40.156.803183530112000No1,406,980*
5811-3-50.037.50192735216100No1,905,365*
5710-5-40.020.00041632301430000No2,485,094*
5610-4-50.08.20017223325102000No3,151,242*
5510-3-6No2.40021126312071000No3,903,994*
549-5-5No0.500041528291751000No4,675,507*
539-4-6No0.100151729271541000No5,448,109*
529-3-7No0.000171929261341000No6,195,272*
518-5-6No0.00002820302512300000.0%6,816,714*
508-4-7NoNo0002921302411300000.07,313,141*
498-3-8NoNo000292230231030000.07,627,457*
487-5-7NoNo00003102330221020000.37,723,202*
477-4-8NoNo0000311243021820001.97,602,137*
466-6-7NoNo000141326301971008.07,274,916*
456-5-8NoNo000151528291751021.96,748,832*
446-4-9NoNo000016193128133042.96,085,059*
435-6-8NoNo000292433247165.25,323,350*
425-5-9NoNo000314303316382.54,506,888*
415-4-10NoNo00016223727792.73,699,839*
404-6-9NoNo00021334381397.52,938,332*
394-5-10NoNo001626442399.32,253,228*
384-4-11NoNo000317453599.81,670,662*
373-6-10NoNo001104147100.01,192,317*
363-5-11NoNo0053559100.0817,004*
353-4-12NoNo0032770100.0537,882*
343-3-13NoNo0012079100.0339,399*
332-5-12NoNo001486Yes204,345*
322-4-13NoNo0990Yes116,547*
312-3-14NoNo0694Yes63,076*
301-5-13NoNo0496Yes31,982*
291-4-14NoNo0298Yes15,369*
281-3-15NoNo199Yes6,734*
271-2-16NoNo0100Yes2,830*
260-4-15NoNo0100Yes1,005*
23-25NoNo100Yes417*
220-0-19NoNo0100Yes14,064
Total:0.1%4.4%0112345566777777765422.6%113,122,560

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship