"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 7/3100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Série A100.0*Série C100.0*Average seed
CRB 1 Boa Esporte 1 -0.5
-1.6
+0.7
-0.3
Botafogo 5 Sampaio Corrêa 0 -0.2
-0.2
-0.1
América-MG 3 Mogi Mirim 1 -0.1
-0.5
-0.3
Náutico 2 Oeste 1 -0.1
-0.4
-0.2
ABC 1 Macaé 1 +0.1
+0.2
*-0.1
Bragantino 1 Santa Cruz 2 *+0.1
+0.2
Paraná 0 Criciúma 0 +0.1
-0.1
If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Santa Cruz vs CRB-0.9-0.4+1.2
-4.2-1.6+5.4
+4.3+0.9-5.0
-0.9-0.3+1.2
Ceará vs Botafogo+0.2+0.1-0.2
+0.3+0.1-0.5
+0.4-0.1-0.4
Mogi Mirim vs Náutico+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.4+0.1-0.5
+0.4-0.1-0.3
Bahia vs Paysandu+0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.3-0.2
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Boa Esporte vs Vitória+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.2+0.2-0.4
+0.4-0.1-0.3
Macaé vs América-MG+0.0+0.1-0.1
*-0.0+0.3-0.2
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Sampaio Corrêa vs Luverdense-0.2+0.2+0.1
-0.1-0.1+0.2
Atlético-GO vs ABC+0.1+0.1-0.2
+0.2-0.2-0.1
Criciúma vs Bragantino+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Oeste vs Paraná*-0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.2*-0.0
If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 7/10100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Série A100.0*Série C100.0*Average seed
Vitória vs CRB-1.0-0.4+1.3
-4.4-1.6+5.7
+4.1+1.0-4.8
-0.9-0.3+1.2
CRB vs Luverdense+1.2-0.4-0.9
+5.4-1.6-4.2
-5.0+0.8+4.4
+1.2-0.3-0.9
Bragantino vs Botafogo+0.1+0.1-0.2
+0.1+0.2-0.3
+0.3-0.1-0.2
Paysandu vs Sampaio Corrêa-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.3+0.2+0.1
-0.1-0.0+0.2
Oeste vs América-MG+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.2+0.2-0.4
+0.3-0.1-0.3
Botafogo vs Náutico-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.1
Náutico vs Santa Cruz-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.3+0.2+0.2
-0.2-0.1+0.3
Macaé vs Paysandu+0.1+0.1-0.1
*-0.0+0.3-0.2
+0.1-0.0-0.1
América-MG vs ABC-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.3+0.2+0.1
-0.2-0.1+0.3
Paraná vs Vitória+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.2+0.2-0.3
+0.2-0.1-0.2
Mogi Mirim vs Macaé+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.3+0.1-0.4
+0.3-0.2-0.2
Criciúma vs Bahia+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.2+0.2-0.3
+0.3-0.1-0.2
Bahia vs Oeste-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.3+0.2+0.2
-0.2-0.1+0.3
Sampaio Corrêa vs Boa Esporte-0.2+0.1+0.1
-0.1-0.1+0.2
ABC vs Paraná-0.1+0.1*-0.0
*+0.0-0.1+0.1
Santa Cruz vs Atlético-GO-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1-0.2+0.2
Luverdense vs Bragantino+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Ceará vs Criciúma+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.2-0.2*-0.0
Boa Esporte vs Ceará-0.1+0.1+0.1
+0.0-0.2+0.1
Atlético-GO vs Mogi Mirim-0.1+0.0+0.0
+0.1-0.2+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the CRB finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceSérieChance will finish season at seedSérie
TPW-L-Ewins titleA1234567891011121314151617181920CCount
82-98YesYes100No7,549*
8121-3-499.6%Yes1000No494*
8021-4-3YesYes100No841*
7920-3-599.3Yes991No1,658*
7820-4-498.9Yes991No2,967*
7719-3-698.3Yes9820No5,082*
7619-4-597.1Yes9730No8,480*
7519-5-495.9Yes9640No14,094*
7418-4-693.9Yes9460No22,592*
7318-5-591.0Yes91900No34,973*
7217-4-787.0Yes871210No54,287*
7117-5-682.0Yes821710No81,057*
7017-6-575.3100.0%7523200No118,915*
6916-5-767.2100.06729400No170,294*
6816-6-657.7100.05835710No237,795*
6716-7-547.199.9474011100No327,192*
6615-6-736.599.73643173000No438,714*
6515-7-626.199.22643246100No578,213*
6414-6-816.997.817393111200No746,192*
6314-7-79.994.5103135185100No944,597*
6214-8-64.987.75223526102000No1,167,753*
6113-7-82.176.22133032185100No1,419,402*
6013-8-70.759.416213226113000No1,686,469*
5913-9-60.239.7021126312072000No1,965,606*
5812-8-80.021.50151629281651000No2,247,675*
5712-9-70.08.900172030251231000No2,512,907*
5612-10-60.02.60002102330221020000No2,755,746*
5511-9-8No0.5000312252920820000No2,966,958*
5411-10-7No0.100141426281871000No3,126,826*
5310-9-9No0.0000151627281661000No3,229,862*
5210-10-8No0.00001617282715510000.0%3,267,955*
5110-11-7NoNo0002718282614410000.03,238,028*
509-10-9NoNo000282029251241000.03,142,945*
499-11-8NoNo000292229231130000.42,987,650*
489-12-7NoNo0000311242921920002.12,776,650*
478-11-9NoNo000141426291961007.72,532,283*
468-12-8NoNo00161729281540019.52,256,074*
458-13-7NoNo00028213125102037.31,964,274*
447-12-9NoNo0003122732205157.51,675,522*
437-13-8NoNo001618322912275.01,393,261*
427-14-7NoNo0000210273521487.31,134,358*
416-13-9NoNo00015193631994.4900,156*
406-14-8NoNo00021232391597.8697,167*
396-15-7NoNo001625442499.3524,666*
385-14-9NoNo00318443499.8387,648*
375-15-8NoNo000112424599.9277,847*
365-16-7NoNo0173756100.0193,514*
354-15-9NoNo0043165100.0130,625*
344-16-8NoNo022473Yes86,033*
334-17-7NoNo011980Yes54,505*
323-16-9NoNo001486Yes33,708*
313-17-8NoNo01090Yes19,955*
303-18-7NoNo0793Yes11,640*
293-19-6NoNo0595Yes6,297*
282-18-8NoNo397Yes3,375*
272-19-7NoNo298Yes1,675*
262-20-6NoNo199Yes798*
251-19-8NoNo199Yes370*
241-20-7NoNo199Yes137*
14-23NoNo100Yes7,134*
Total:2.4%14.9%2345566666666665543213.6%56,581,440

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship