How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 7/21100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
America-MG 4 Figueirense 2 -0.5
-0.7
-0.2
Ceara 0 Goias 1 +0.1
+0.2
+0.1
Santa Cruz 1 Boa Esporte 1 *+0.1
+0.4
Criciuma 2 ABC 1 -0.1
-0.4
-0.1
Londrina 0 Nautico 0 +0.1
+0.2
-0.1
+0.0
Luverdense 1 Parana 1 *+0.2
-0.1
Vila Nova 2 Internacional 1 *-0.1
If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
CRB vs Guarani+3.8-1.1-3.1
+9.3-2.5-7.7
-2.3+0.3+2.1
+1.2-0.3-1.0
Goias vs CRB-2.7-1.2+3.5
-7.3-2.6+8.9
+2.2+0.3-2.4
-1.0-0.3+1.2
Oeste vs Juventude+0.3+0.2-0.4
+0.2+0.3-0.4
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Juventude vs America-MG*+0.0+0.4-0.3
*-0.1+0.3-0.1
Guarani vs Londrina-0.4+0.3+0.2
-0.3+0.4*+0.0
Figueirense vs Vila Nova+0.2+0.1-0.3
+0.5+0.3-0.7
+0.2-0.1-0.2
Parana vs Santa Cruz*+0.0+0.1-0.1
*+0.1+0.3-0.3
Nautico vs Criciuma+0.1*+0.0-0.1
+0.4+0.3-0.5
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Brasil de Pelotas vs Paysandu*+0.0+0.3-0.3
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Boa Esporte vs Luverdense-0.3*+0.1+0.2
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Internacional vs Oeste-0.4+0.3+0.2
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Paysandu vs Ceara*-0.1+0.4-0.2
ABC vs Brasil de Pelotas+0.1*+0.1-0.2
+0.1-0.1*+0.0
If winner is:HomeEmpateAway
Week of 8/1100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Parana vs CRB-2.7-1.2+3.5
-7.3-2.6+9.0
+2.2+0.3-2.3
-1.0-0.3+1.2
Figueirense vs Juventude+0.4+0.2-0.5
+0.5+0.3-0.7
+0.2*-0.0-0.2
Luverdense vs Guarani+0.4+0.2-0.5
+0.5+0.3-0.6
+0.2*-0.1-0.2
America-MG vs Londrina-0.5+0.3+0.3
-0.3+0.5*+0.0
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Vila Nova vs Nautico-0.3+0.1+0.2
-0.8+0.3+0.6
*-0.0-0.1+0.1
-0.1+0.0+0.0
Internacional vs Goias-0.1+0.1*+0.0
-0.3+0.3+0.1
Santa Cruz vs Paysandu-0.1+0.1*+0.0
-0.3+0.4*-0.0
Ceara vs Criciuma*-0.1+0.3-0.2
Oeste vs ABC-0.4+0.2+0.3
-0.1-0.1+0.1
Brasil de Pelotas vs Boa Esporte*-0.0+0.3-0.2
+0.1-0.1*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the CRB finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-L-Ewins titleSerie A1234567891011121314151617181920Serie CCount
79-93YesYes100No893*
7817-3-399.6%Yes1000No445*
7717-4-299.6Yes1000No795*
7616-3-499.3Yes991No1,335*
7516-4-398.8Yes991No2,319*
7415-3-598.0Yes982No3,445*
7315-4-496.7Yes9730No5,437*
7215-5-394.9Yes9550No7,962*
7114-4-591.9Yes92800No11,918*
7014-5-488.6Yes89110No17,334*
6914-6-382.5Yes821710No23,763*
6813-5-575.7Yes762220No32,404*
6713-6-466.1Yes662940No42,596*
6612-5-655.4100.0%5536810No55,757*
6512-6-543.599.9444113200No69,631*
6412-7-431.799.6324420400No86,066*
6311-6-620.698.62141289100No103,712*
6211-7-511.695.8123434164000No122,754*
6111-8-45.489.252435259200No140,935*
6010-7-62.176.82133031175100No157,694*
5910-8-50.657.716203127123000No172,328*
5810-9-40.135.1021024312292000No186,131*
579-8-60.016.1003132630197200No194,088*
569-9-50.05.100141527281761000No198,905*
559-10-4No1.00015162727166100No198,221*
548-9-6No0.100016172727165100No193,614*
538-10-5No0.00016172827155100No184,458*
527-9-7No0.000016172727155100No170,762*
517-10-6NoNo000161728271551000.0%154,596*
507-11-5NoNo000161728271551000.1136,607*
496-10-7NoNo00171829261441000.6118,404*
486-11-6NoNo0028203026123003.398,853*
476-12-5NoNo0029233124920011.480,524*
465-11-7NoNo00031226322061026.864,016*
455-12-6NoNo015163131143047.849,414*
445-13-5NoNo00182335257167.636,938*
434-12-7NoNo00314323415283.027,114*
424-13-6NoNo017243826592.518,857*
414-14-5NoNo03153735997.113,057*
404-15-4NoNo01932431698.78,542*
393-14-6NoNo0424472499.75,390*
383-15-5NoNo02174635100.03,311*
373-16-4NoNo0011424799.92,000*
362-15-6NoNo74053Yes1,056*
352-16-5NoNo43462Yes607*
342-17-4NoNo22871Yes279*
331-16-6NoNo12871Yes149*
321-17-5NoNo892Yes60*
311-18-4NoNo793Yes29*
28-30NoNo100Yes17*
240-23-0NoNo199Yes398
Total:8.0%32.3%888887766655443322104.8%3,205,920

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship