"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 10/21100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Average seed
Gremio 1 Palmeiras 3 -2.9
-2.1
-0.6
Santos 1 Atletico-GO 0 -0.2
-0.1
-0.1
Cruzeiro 1 Atletico-MG 3 +0.1
+0.1
Sao Paulo 2 Flamengo 0 +0.2
+0.1
Atletico-PR 2 Sport Recife 1 -0.2
Vasco da Gama 1 Coritiba 1 +0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Botafogo vs Corinthians+1.0+0.2-1.1
-0.6+0.2+0.5
-0.1+0.0+0.0
Chapecoense vs Fluminense+0.1+0.2-0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/28100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Average seed
Avai vs Gremio-1.3-0.7+1.8
-3.4-0.3+3.6
-0.5-0.1+0.6
Ponte Preta vs Corinthians+1.0+0.1-1.1
Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro-0.3+0.1+0.2
+0.4+0.1-0.5
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Sao Paulo vs Santos+0.2+0.1-0.2
-0.1+0.1+0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Atletico-PR vs Chapecoense-0.4+0.2+0.2
Flamengo vs Vasco da Gama*+0.0+0.3-0.2
Atletico-MG vs Botafogo-0.1+0.3-0.1
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Fluminense vs Bahia-0.2+0.2+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Gremio finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleLibertadores1234567891011121314151617181920Serie BCount
748-0-077.6%Yes78220No4,841
727-1-059.9Yes60400No19,739
717-0-149.2Yes494920No30,570
706-2-038.9Yes395830No43,983
696-1-127.8Yes2865700No137,125
686-0-217.8Yes18661510No106,769
5-3-017.9Yes18661510No56,044
675-2-111.1Yes11642320No262,156
665-1-25.6Yes6553450No410,971
4-4-05.2Yes5533660No44,443
654-3-12.3Yes242431200No279,058
5-0-32.3Yes242431200No214,703
644-2-20.9Yes130482110No655,762
3-5-00.6Yes127492220No22,770
634-1-30.2Yes0174633400No684,839
3-4-10.2Yes0154535500No178,165
623-3-20.0Yes0836451110No558,367
4-0-40.0Yes0836451010No267,698
2-6-0NoYes735441310No7,298
613-2-30.0100.0%03245020200No873,629
2-5-10.0Yes0222492330No68,854
603-1-40.0100.001124633700No684,238
2-4-20.0100.001114435910No267,608
1-7-0NoYes194039111No1,333
592-3-3No99.804314318300No557,775
3-0-5No99.904324318300No213,696
1-6-1No99.703284322400No14,850
582-2-4No99.2011842308100No655,850
1-5-2No98.7011540331110No68,334
0-8-0NoYes9433414No100
572-1-5No96.4007313919300No411,436
1-4-3No94.40062739225000No177,836
0-7-1No91.9423372871No1,288
561-3-4No83.902143533132000No278,007
2-0-6No85.90215363312200No106,716
0-6-2No78.3112313418400No7,236
551-2-5No67.106233825710No261,639
0-5-3No58.2041935291120No22,764
541-1-6No40.80110303619500No137,466
0-4-4No32.90172536237100No44,300
530-3-5No14.200212303318510No56,043
1-0-7No16.200214323215300No30,507
520-2-6No4.500418332913300No43,741
510-1-7No0.601621332711200No19,406
500-0-8No0.1017223326910No4,767
Total:2.1%95.1%21521251710631100000No8,994,720
Points
Chance Will Win Championship