"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 10/17100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Sao Paulo 0 Gremio 0 -0.3
-2.2
+1.0
-0.3
Corinthians 1 Flamengo 5 -0.1
-0.2
-0.4
Internacional 2 Vasco da Gama 0 -0.1
*-0.1
-0.2
Bahia 3 Atletico-MG 1 +0.1
*+0.1
+0.5
Coritiba 1 Santos 2 -0.5
-0.3
Fluminense 2 Ceara 2 +0.4
*-0.1
Fortaleza 2 Palmeiras 0 *-0.1
Bragantino 2 Sport Recife 0 +0.3
+0.3
Atletico-GO 1 Athletico-PR 1 +0.2
-0.2
Botafogo 0 Goias 0 +0.2
-0.3
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Gremio vs Goias+0.6-0.2-0.4
+7.1-2.2-5.7
-5.8+0.8+5.3
+1.2-0.3-1.0
Atletico-MG vs Athletico-PR-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.3+0.1+0.2
-0.4-0.1+0.5
Goias vs Sao Paulo+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.4+0.2-0.5
+0.5-0.1-0.4
Ceara vs Sao Paulo+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.3-0.3
+0.3-0.1-0.3
Vasco da Gama vs Fortaleza+0.1+0.3-0.3
+0.2-0.1-0.2
Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama-0.2+0.3+0.0
-0.1-0.1+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/26100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Athletico-PR vs Gremio-0.4-0.2+0.6
-5.8-2.1+7.2
+5.3+0.8-5.8
-1.0-0.3+1.2
Atletico-MG vs Sport Recife-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.2+0.2+0.1
-0.3-0.1+0.4
Internacional vs Flamengo-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.0+0.1-0.0
Sao Paulo vs Botafogo-0.1+0.0+0.0
-0.4+0.3+0.2
-0.4-0.1+0.4
Bahia vs Fortaleza+0.2+0.3-0.4
+0.3-0.1-0.2
Fluminense vs Santos-0.1+0.4-0.1
Atletico-GO vs Palmeiras-0.0+0.3-0.2
+0.1-0.1-0.0
Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians-0.2+0.2+0.1
-0.1-0.2+0.2
Ceara vs Coritiba-0.3+0.2+0.1
-0.1-0.2+0.2
Bragantino vs Goias-0.1+0.1+0.0
+0.1-0.3+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Gremio finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleLibertadores1234567891011121314151617181920Serie BCount
8722-0-0100.0%Yes1000No1,116,261
83-85YesYes100No651*
8220-1-199.9Yes1000No1,376
8119-3-099.8Yes1000No3,058*
8019-2-199.4Yes991No9,094
7919-1-299.3Yes991No20,205*
7818-3-198.7Yes9910No44,113*
7718-2-297.8Yes9820No100,087*
7617-4-196.6Yes9730No194,936*
7517-3-294.6Yes9550No389,555*
7417-2-391.9Yes92800No746,402*
7316-4-288.0Yes881200No1,335,545*
7216-3-382.9Yes831610No2,386,812*
7116-2-476.4Yes7622200No4,070,657*
7015-4-368.3Yes6828300No6,692,210*
6915-3-458.9Yes59356000No10,823,669*
6814-5-348.5Yes494010100No16,795,973*
6714-4-437.7100.0%3844162000No25,373,897*
6614-3-527.3100.02745235000No37,490,649*
6513-5-418.2100.018413091000No53,544,356*
6413-4-510.8100.0113536153000No74,680,711*
6313-3-65.7100.0626382371000No101,618,172*
6212-5-52.599.831635311320000No134,319,056*
6112-4-60.999.11927352161000No173,443,371*
6011-6-50.396.8041733301330000No218,405,306*
5911-5-60.190.801925342381000No267,863,908*
5811-4-70.078.50031430311651000No320,964,894*
5710-6-60.059.000162032261230000No375,188,980*
5610-5-70.035.9000210243222820000No427,512,229*
5510-4-8No16.5000313273019610000No475,965,321*
549-6-7No5.30001516292916510000No516,825,196*
539-5-8No1.100016183027144100000.0%547,374,043*
529-4-9No0.100017203025123000000.0566,093,700*
518-6-8No0.000002921302411300000.0570,882,841*
508-5-9No0.0000021022302310300000.0561,348,753*
498-4-10No0.000003112330229200000.3538,601,648*
487-6-9NoNo0001312252920820001.9503,534,241*
477-5-10NoNo0000141426291971007.8458,586,744*
467-4-11NoNo0000151628291651021.5407,049,256*
456-6-10NoNo000017193027133042.4351,573,431*
446-5-11NoNo0000292432238164.7295,464,497*
436-4-12NoNo0000314303317382.2241,475,258*
425-6-11NoNo000016213628892.6191,691,178*
415-5-12NoNo000021232381697.5147,717,509*
405-4-13NoNo0001624432699.3110,454,683*
394-6-12NoNo000215433999.879,954,549*
384-5-13NoNo000193852100.055,984,575*
374-4-14NoNo00043165100.037,883,391*
363-6-13NoNo00022375100.024,722,227*
353-5-14NoNo0011683100.015,514,292*
343-4-15NoNo0001189100.09,350,929*
332-6-14NoNo00793Yes5,396,039*
322-5-15NoNo00496Yes2,972,765*
312-4-16NoNo0298Yes1,552,740*
301-6-15NoNo0199Yes770,331*
291-5-16NoNo0199Yes357,451*
281-4-17NoNo00100Yes155,379*
271-3-18NoNo0100Yes62,301*
260-5-17NoNo0100Yes22,641*
250-4-18NoNo0100Yes7,225*
21-24NoNo100Yes1,118,893*
Total:0.9%20.5%1234566777777665543214.9%8,975,600,160

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship