How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 7/15100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Vila Nova 1 CSA 2 +0.1
+0.9
-10.5
+1.1
CSA 1 Cruzeiro 1 -0.0
-0.6
+2.2
-0.3
Cruzeiro 2 Novorizontino 1 -0.3
+0.0
Sampaio Correa 3 Vasco da Gama 1 *+0.1
+0.5
-0.1
Guarani 0 Bahia 2 -0.1
-0.6
Bahia 1 CRB 1 +0.1
*-0.2
Gremio 3 Tombense 0 *-0.1
Vasco da Gama 1 Ituano 1 *+0.1
*-0.3
*+0.0
Brusque 1 Gremio 1 *+0.1
*-0.1
*+0.0
Sport Recife 0 Vila Nova 0 *-0.3
Chapecoense 0 Guarani 0 -0.5
+0.1
Ituano 0 Londrina 0 *-0.3
Novorizontino 2 Operario-PR 1 -0.3
Londrina 1 Sampaio Correa 0 +0.3
Criciuma 1 Ponte Preta 1 *-0.2
Ponte Preta 1 Nautico 0 *+0.1
Nautico 1 Chapecoense 2 *+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/22100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Criciuma vs CSA-0.0-0.0+0.1
-1.0-0.5+1.3
+8.7+2.2-10.1
-1.0-0.3+1.1
Cruzeiro vs Bahia+0.1+0.0-0.1
Vasco da Gama vs CRB-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.4-0.1+0.4
Vila Nova vs Vasco da Gama+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.8-0.3-0.6
-0.1+0.0+0.0
Gremio vs Ponte Preta-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.6-0.2+0.7
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Chapecoense vs Gremio+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.7-0.1-0.6
-0.1+0.0+0.0
Sport Recife vs Guarani-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.6-0.3+0.8
Operario-PR vs Tombense+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.7-0.2-0.6
Sampaio Correa vs Sport Recife*+0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.2-0.1-0.1
CRB vs Novorizontino*-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.1-0.1-0.1
Guarani vs Brusque+0.4-0.4-0.1
Ituano vs Chapecoense+0.3-0.3-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the CSA finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleSerie A1234567891011121314151617181920Serie CCount
7719-0-095.6%Yes9640No14,066
7518-1-076.9Yes7723No13
7418-0-187.5Yes8813No24
7317-2-077.3Yes7723No75
7217-1-171.9Yes72262No242
7116-3-067.1Yes67312No459*
7016-2-157.5Yes584030No1,326
6916-1-249.5Yes494460No2,896*
6815-3-140.1100.0%40491010No5,556*
6715-2-231.4100.031531510No12,312*
6615-1-322.399.922532230No22,491*
6514-3-214.899.5154930600No41,020*
6414-2-38.898.7942371110No73,624*
6313-4-24.796.65324118300No121,599*
6213-3-32.192.022241277100No199,338*
6113-2-40.883.3113353414200No318,097*
6012-4-30.369.4062637236100No478,341*
5912-3-40.151.002153332143000No712,020*
5811-5-30.031.601724352481000No1,020,100*
5711-4-40.015.50021330321751000No1,404,948*
5611-3-50.05.70015193228133000No1,908,170*
5510-5-4No1.40018233224102000No2,490,184*
5410-4-5No0.20021125312182000No3,154,762*
5310-3-6No0.0000313263019710000No3,907,276*
529-5-5No0.000141427291861000No4,673,761*
519-4-6No0.00001515272817610000.0%5,449,008*
509-3-7NoNo0001516282816510000.06,194,537*
498-5-6NoNo0001617282715510000.16,816,426*
488-4-7NoNo0001618292714410000.77,308,669*
478-3-8NoNo000171930261330003.87,628,972*
467-5-7NoNo0000282131251120013.07,721,974*
457-4-8NoNo000021024322281030.97,601,826*
446-6-7NoNo0004142932174053.67,274,446*
436-5-8NoNo001619332911174.36,747,534*
426-4-9NoNo000210273621488.36,083,395*
415-6-8NoNo0004173633995.65,325,420*
405-5-9NoNo0001930411898.64,500,938*
395-4-10NoNo000422452899.63,697,469*
384-6-9NoNo000214444199.92,936,560*
374-5-10NoNo00183953100.02,252,777*
364-4-11NoNo0043264100.01,671,512*
353-6-10NoNo0022474100.01,193,812*
343-5-11NoNo0011782100.0818,467*
333-4-12NoNo001288Yes538,728*
323-3-13NoNo0892Yes339,757*
312-5-12NoNo0595Yes204,811*
302-4-13NoNo0397Yes117,193*
292-3-14NoNo298Yes63,236*
281-5-13NoNo0199Yes32,273*
271-4-14NoNo0100Yes15,353*
261-3-15NoNo0100Yes6,611*
250-5-14NoNo0100Yes2,676*
240-4-15NoNo0100Yes984*
20-23NoNo100Yes14,496*
Total:0.0%1.9%001122334556778991010836.6%113,122,560

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship