Campeonato Brasileiro - Serie A Title Chances 50/50

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Chance will win title														Libertadores			Chance will finish season at seed																						Serie B
	Sunday		P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI	Monday

Corinthians			47	1	14	-	5	-	1	22	76.7	%	+2.9	99.7	%	+0.0	77	16	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.4	+0.05	0.0	%		1		Sport Club Corinthians Paulista
Gremio	T	Atletico-PR 0-0	40		12	-	4	-	5	16	13.5		-1.1	91.3		-0.1	14	36	20	11	7	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.3	-0.01	0.0		+0.0	2		Gremio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense
Santos	T	Coritiba 0-0	37		10	-	7	-	4	9	5.2		-0.7	77.6		-0.5	5	19	20	15	11	8	6	4	3	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.7	-0.05	0.3		+0.0	3		Santos Futebol Clube
Palmeiras	L	Chapecoense 0-2	33		10	-	3	-	8	6	1.6		-1.0	55.3		-7.5	2	8	12	13	11	10	8	7	6	5	4	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	6.8	-0.69	1.8		+0.7	7		Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras

Flamengo			32		8	-	8	-	5	8	0.9		+0.1	44.1		+1.6	1	5	9	10	10	9	9	8	7	6	5	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	0	7.9	+0.09	3.6		+0.2	5		Clube de Regatas do Flamengo
Cruzeiro	W	Sport Recife 2-0	30		8	-	6	-	7	6	0.4		+0.2	32.2		+10.1	0	3	6	7	8	8	8	8	7	7	7	6	5	5	4	4	3	2	1	0	9.2	+1.33	6.9		-4.9	4		Cruzeiro Esporte Clube

Atletico-PR	T	Gremio 0-0	30		8	-	6	-	7	2	0.4		-0.1	32.1		-1.9	0	3	6	7	8	8	8	8	7	7	7	6	5	5	4	4	3	2	1	0	9.3	-0.27	7.0		+0.9	8		Clube Atletico Paranaense
Sport Recife	L	Cruzeiro 0-2	29		8	-	5	-	8	2	0.3		-0.2	26.9		-7.2	0	2	4	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	4	4	3	2	1	9.9	-0.94	9.3		+3.2	9		Sport Club do Recife
Fluminense			27	1	6	-	9	-	5	2	0.2		+0.0	21.6		+1.2	0	2	3	5	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	3	1	10.8	+0.03	13.4		+0.6	6	Atletico-MG	Fluminense Football Club
Botafogo	L	Ponte Preta 1-2	28		7	-	7	-	7	2	0.2		-0.1	20.3		-6.4	0	1	3	4	5	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	4	3	1	10.9	-0.99	13.5		+4.3	10		Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas
Atletico-MG			26	1	7	-	5	-	8	-2	0.2		+0.0	19.0		+1.1	0	1	3	4	5	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	4	2	11.2	+0.03	15.9		+0.7	11	at Fluminense	Clube Atletico Mineiro
Ponte Preta	W	Botafogo 2-1	27		7	-	6	-	8	-3	0.1		+0.1	16.2		+6.0	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	5	4	2	11.6	+1.25	17.2		-8.2	12		Associacao Atletica Ponte Preta
Chapecoense	W	Palmeiras 2-0	25	1	7	-	4	-	9	-8	0.1		+0.1	15.2		+5.5	0	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	5	2	11.9	+1.22	19.9		-8.5	13		Associacao Chapecoense de Futebol
Bahia	W	Vasco da Gama 3-0	26		7	-	5	-	9	0	0.1		+0.0	13.0		+5.0	0	1	2	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	5	3	12.2	+1.22	21.2		-9.1	15		Esporte Clube Bahia
Coritiba	T	Santos 0-0	26		7	-	5	-	9	-5	0.1		-0.0	13.0		-1.5	0	1	2	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	5	2	12.3	-0.37	21.5		+2.6	14		Coritiba Football Club
Vasco da Gama	L	Bahia 0-3	25		7	-	4	-	10	-12	0.0		-0.0	9.9		-4.3	0	0	1	2	3	3	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	7	4	13.0	-1.04	26.5		+7.3	18		Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama

Sao Paulo	T	Avai 1-1	23		6	-	5	-	10	-3	0.0		-0.0	5.2		-0.9	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	6	7	8	9	10	11	11	7	14.5	-0.38	39.7		+3.9	19		Sao Paulo Futebol Clube
Vitoria			22		6	-	4	-	11	-9	0.0		+0.0	3.8		+0.3	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	6	7	8	9	11	12	14	10	15.1	-0.05	46.1		+1.2	17		Esporte Clube Vitoria
Avai	T	Sao Paulo 1-1	22		5	-	7	-	9	-14	0.0		-0.0	3.3		-0.7	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	11	13	15	11	15.4	-0.39	49.1		+4.3	16		Avai Futebol Clube
Atletico-GO			15		4	-	3	-	14	-19	0.0			0.2		+0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	3	4	6	10	18	53	18.6	-0.05	86.9		+0.7	20		Atletico Clube Goianiense

Week of 8/19
Corinthians 0 Vitoria 1
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians	-5.3
Gremio	+2.8
Santos	+1.2
Palmeiras	+0.6
Cruzeiro					+0.6
Fluminense					+0.6
Atletico-MG					+0.7
Ponte Preta					+0.9
Chapecoense					+0.9
Bahia					+1.0
Coritiba					+0.8
Vasco da Gama					+0.8
Sao Paulo					+1.1
Vitoria			+1.5		-10.7		+1.0
Avai					+1.1
Atletico-GO					+0.7

Gremio 0 Atletico-PR 0
11:00 AM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians	+1.3
Gremio	-1.6		-0.5				-0.1
Santos	+0.2		+0.3
Palmeiras			+0.4
Flamengo			+0.3
Atletico-PR	-0.2		-3.1		+0.5		-0.3
Sport Recife			+0.4
Botafogo			+0.3

Palmeiras 0 Chapecoense 2
7:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians	+0.7
Palmeiras	-1.2		-8.8		+0.8		-0.8
Flamengo			+0.4
Cruzeiro			+0.3		+0.3
Atletico-PR			+0.3		+0.3
Sport Recife			+0.3		+0.3
Atletico-MG			+0.3		+0.5
Ponte Preta			+0.2		+0.6
Chapecoense			+5.1		-8.8		+1.2
Bahia					+0.6
Coritiba					+0.6
Vasco da Gama					+0.7
Sao Paulo					+0.9
Vitoria					+0.9
Avai					+0.9

Coritiba 0 Santos 0
7:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians	+0.8
Gremio	+0.2
Santos	-1.1		-1.4				-0.1
Chapecoense					-0.2
Bahia					-0.2
Coritiba			-2.3		+1.6		-0.4
Vasco da Gama					-0.2
Sao Paulo					*-0.1
Vitoria					-0.2
Avai					-0.2

Cruzeiro 2 Sport Recife 0
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Cruzeiro	+0.2		+8.8		-5.2		+1.3
Sport Recife	-0.3		-8.8		+2.9		-1.0

Flamengo 2 Atletico-GO 0
7:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Santos			-0.7
Palmeiras			-0.9
Flamengo	+0.3		+9.8		-3.4		+1.2
Cruzeiro			-0.7
Atletico-PR			-0.9
Sport Recife			-0.9
Fluminense			-0.7
Botafogo			-0.8
Atletico-MG			-0.6
Coritiba			-0.5		-0.2
Vasco da Gama			-0.5		-0.2
Atletico-GO	No		-0.3		+6.4		-0.5

Ponte Preta 2 Botafogo 1
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Palmeiras			+0.3
Flamengo			+0.2
Atletico-PR			+0.2
Botafogo	-0.2		-7.5		+4.2		-1.1
Ponte Preta			+5.3		-8.6		+1.2
Vitoria					+0.5

Bahia 3 Vasco da Gama 0
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Bahia			+4.3		-9.7		+1.2
Vasco da Gama			-5.1		+6.8		-1.1

Avai 1 Sao Paulo 1
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Sao Paulo			-1.2		+2.1		-0.3
Avai			-1.0		+2.5		-0.3

Chapecoense vs CorinthiansIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
4:00 PM Wed	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians	70.875.283.5		99.599.799.9		0.00.0No		1.51.41.2
Gremio	16.614.39.9		91.191.491.5
Chapecoense	0.20.10.0		21.712.910.1		12.621.626.2		10.712.312.9

Fluminense vs Atletico-MGHomeDrawAway
8:00 PM Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Fluminense	0.40.10.1		30.119.214.7		7.614.218.7		9.511.111.9
Atletico-MG	0.10.10.3		12.616.526.9		21.717.19.3		12.311.69.9

Week of 8/26
Corinthians vs Atletico-GOIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians	83.575.170.8		99.999.799.5		NoNo0.0		1.21.41.5
Gremio	9.914.316.6
Santos	3.65.66.5
Atletico-GO	No0.00.0		0.00.10.3		91.688.980.9		19.018.818.1

Gremio vs Sport RecifeHomeDrawAway
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians	72.978.079.6
Gremio	18.611.99.5		95.890.887.3				2.73.43.7
Sport Recife	0.10.20.6		19.223.936.5		13.110.14.9		11.010.38.7

Cruzeiro vs SantosHomeDrawAway
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Santos	3.24.27.8		69.976.386.3		0.60.30.1		5.44.93.9
Cruzeiro	0.80.30.2		42.929.223.5		3.47.510.0		8.09.510.3

Palmeiras vs Sao PauloHomeDrawAway
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Palmeiras	2.61.20.8		66.452.546.0		0.61.93.0		5.87.07.7
Sao Paulo			2.74.18.5		48.542.529.0		15.414.813.3

Flamengo vs Atletico-PRHomeDrawAway
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	1.50.60.4		55.841.434.1		1.53.85.5		6.78.28.9
Atletico-PR	0.20.30.7		23.129.142.9		10.37.63.4		10.39.68.0

Ponte Preta vs Atletico-MGHomeDrawAway
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Atletico-MG	0.10.10.3		12.716.526.8		21.817.09.2		12.311.69.9
Ponte Preta	0.20.10.0		23.513.910.4		10.118.523.6		10.311.912.7

Fluminense vs Vasco da GamaHomeDrawAway
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Fluminense	0.40.10.1		29.919.214.9		7.514.118.9		9.511.111.9
Vasco da Gama			5.88.115.2		34.528.517.2		14.013.311.7

Bahia vs BotafogoHomeDrawAway
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Botafogo	0.10.10.3		13.717.728.6		19.014.47.4		12.011.29.6
Bahia	0.20.00.0		19.410.98.0		13.122.928.4		10.912.613.3

Avai vs ChapecoenseHomeDrawAway
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Chapecoense	0.00.10.2		10.013.021.7		27.021.212.0		13.012.210.6
Avai			5.52.51.6		37.452.059.0		14.315.716.3

Coritiba vs VitoriaHomeDrawAway
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Coritiba			19.010.98.2		13.022.929.2		11.012.613.4
Vitoria			1.92.96.3		56.048.834.5		16.015.414.0

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Campeonato Brasileiro - Serie A Title Chances 50/50

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