Campeonato Brasileiro - Serie A Title Chances 50/50

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Chance will win title														Libertadores			Chance will finish season at seed																						Serie B
	Sunday		P	G	W	-	L	-	E	GD	%	Change		%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI	Monday

Corinthians	W	Gremio 1-0	26		8	-	0	-	2	13	37.4	%	+8.1	85.4	%	+5.8	37	18	11	8	6	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.4	+0.69	0.4	%	-0.4	1		Sport Club Corinthians Paulista
Gremio	L	Corinthians 0-1	22		7	-	2	-	1	12	18.0		-6.9	69.9		-6.2	18	16	12	10	8	7	5	5	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	5.2	-0.71	1.7		+0.5	2		Gremio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense
Flamengo	W	Bahia 1-0	17		4	-	1	-	5	8	5.4		+1.5	40.8		+7.7	5	7	7	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	8.5	+1.10	8.4		-4.5	4		Clube de Regatas do Flamengo
Botafogo			15	1	4	-	2	-	3	5	4.9		-0.2	38.6		-0.5	5	6	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	1	8.9	-0.05	9.9		-0.0	3	Avai	Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas

Palmeiras	W	Ponte Preta 2-1	16		5	-	4	-	1	5	4.6		+1.4	37.8		+7.5	5	6	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	1	8.9	+1.11	9.8		-4.9	8		Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
Santos			16		5	-	4	-	1	2	4.5		-0.2	37.7		-0.5	4	6	7	7	7	7	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	1	9.0	-0.06	9.9		+0.0	6		Santos Futebol Clube

Vasco da Gama	W	Atletico-GO 1-0	15		5	-	5	-	0	-7	3.5		+1.0	33.0		+6.9	3	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	2	9.6	+1.11	12.3		-5.6	12		Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama
Fluminense	T	Sao Paulo 1-1	15		4	-	3	-	3	1	3.3		-0.8	31.5		-3.0	3	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	2	9.8	-0.37	13.1		+0.9	7		Fluminense Football Club
Coritiba	L	Cruzeiro 0-2	15		4	-	3	-	3	1	3.2		-1.8	31.5		-7.5	3	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	4	4	3	2	9.8	-0.98	13.2		+3.2	5		Coritiba Football Club
Cruzeiro	W	Coritiba 2-0	14		4	-	4	-	2	1	2.5		+0.8	27.4		+6.2	3	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	3	10.4	+1.11	15.9		-6.5	9		Cruzeiro Esporte Clube
Ponte Preta	L	Palmeiras 1-2	14		4	-	4	-	2	-1	2.6		-1.5	27.3		-7.2	3	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	3	10.4	-0.99	15.9		+3.7	14		Associacao Atletica Ponte Preta
Atletico-PR	W	Vitoria 4-1	14		4	-	4	-	2	-3	2.6		+0.8	27.3		+6.2	3	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	3	10.5	+1.12	15.9		-6.5	11		Clube Atletico Paranaense
Chapecoense	L	Atletico-MG 0-1	13		4	-	5	-	1	-6	1.9		-1.2	23.4		-6.7	2	3	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4	11.1	-1.00	19.2		+4.3	10		Associacao Chapecoense de Futebol
Atletico-MG	W	Chapecoense 1-0	13		3	-	3	-	4	-1	1.8		+0.6	22.1		+5.3	2	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	4	11.3	+1.09	20.3		-7.4	16		Clube Atletico Mineiro
Sport Recife			12		3	-	4	-	3	-4	1.4		-0.1	18.7		-0.3	1	2	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	6	6	5	11.9	-0.05	24.1		+0.1	15		Sport Club do Recife
Sao Paulo	T	Fluminense 1-1	11		3	-	5	-	2	1	1.0		-0.3	15.8		-2.3	1	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	6	12.5	-0.37	27.9		+1.9	18		Sao Paulo Futebol Clube

Bahia	L	Flamengo 0-1	10		3	-	6	-	1	-1	0.7		-0.6	13.1		-4.9	1	1	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	8	8	8	8	13.1	-0.97	32.3		+6.2	13		Esporte Clube Bahia
Vitoria	L	Atletico-PR 1-4	8		2	-	6	-	2	-6	0.4		-0.3	8.1		-3.6	0	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	7	8	9	10	12	13	14.5	-0.92	43.5		+7.2	17		Esporte Clube Vitoria
Avai			5	1	1	-	6	-	2	-10	0.2		-0.0	5.6		-0.1	0	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	7	9	11	14	19	15.4	-0.02	52.7		+0.1	20	at Botafogo	Avai Futebol Clube
Atletico-GO	L	Vasco da Gama 0-1	6		2	-	8	-	0	-10	0.2		-0.2	5.0		-2.7	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	7	9	11	14	20	15.6	-0.85	53.6		+7.6	19		Atletico Clube Goianiense

Week of 6/24
Gremio 0 Corinthians 1
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians	+8.3		+6.2		-0.5		+0.7
Gremio	-6.9		-5.9		+0.6		-0.7

Santos 0 Sport Recife 1
7:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians	+0.5		*+0.1
Gremio	+0.2
Flamengo			+0.2		+0.3
Botafogo			*+0.1		+0.2
Santos	-2.1		-7.4		+2.7		-0.9
Vasco da Gama			+0.2		+0.3
Fluminense			+0.2		+0.2
Coritiba			*+0.1		+0.2
Cruzeiro			+0.2		+0.4
Atletico-PR					+0.3
Chapecoense			+0.2		+0.2
Atletico-MG					+0.4
Sport Recife	+0.6		+5.1		-7.6		+1.1
Sao Paulo					+0.4
Bahia					+0.3
Vitoria					+0.5
Avai					+0.4
Atletico-GO					+0.4

Cruzeiro 2 Coritiba 0
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians	*+0.1
Gremio	+0.2
Botafogo			*+0.1
Palmeiras			*+0.1
Coritiba	-1.7		-7.1		+3.4		-0.9
Cruzeiro	+0.9		+6.6		-6.4		+1.1
Sport Recife					+0.3
Atletico-GO					+0.3

Bahia 0 Flamengo 1
6:30 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians	-0.4		-0.2
Gremio	-0.2		-0.3
Flamengo	+1.7		+8.1		-4.6		+1.1
Palmeiras			-0.3
Santos			-0.2
Vasco da Gama			-0.3
Fluminense			-0.2
Coritiba			-0.2
Cruzeiro			-0.3
Atletico-PR			-0.2
Bahia	-0.5		-4.9		+6.1		-1.0
Atletico-GO					-0.2

Ponte Preta 1 Palmeiras 2
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Palmeiras	+1.6		+8.0		-4.9		+1.2
Ponte Preta	-1.4		-6.9		+3.9		-1.0

Vasco da Gama 1 Atletico-GO 0
11:00 AM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians	-0.3		-0.3
Flamengo			-0.3
Botafogo			-0.3
Santos			-0.4
Vasco da Gama	+1.2		+7.2		-5.8		+1.2
Fluminense			-0.3
Coritiba			-0.3
Ponte Preta			-0.3
Atletico-PR			-0.2		-0.1
Atletico-MG			-0.2		-0.2
Vitoria					-0.1
Avai					-0.2
Atletico-GO	-0.2		-2.6		+7.5		-0.8

Chapecoense 0 Atletico-MG 1
7:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Santos			*+0.1
Chapecoense	-1.1		-6.3		+4.5		-1.0
Atletico-MG	+0.7		+5.7		-7.3		+1.1

Sao Paulo 1 Fluminense 1
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians	+0.2		+0.2
Flamengo			+0.3
Botafogo			+0.3
Santos			+0.2
Vasco da Gama			+0.3
Fluminense	-0.7		-2.3		+0.8		-0.3
Coritiba			+0.3
Ponte Preta			+0.3
Chapecoense			+0.3
Sao Paulo	-0.3		-1.8		+1.5		-0.3
Vitoria					-0.3
Avai					-0.2
Atletico-GO					-0.2

Atletico-PR 4 Vitoria 1
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Botafogo			-0.2
Palmeiras			-0.2
Fluminense			-0.3
Atletico-PR	+0.9		+6.4		-6.6		+1.2
Vitoria	-0.3		-3.5		+7.1		-0.9

Botafogo vs AvaiIf winner is:HomeEmpateAway
8:00 PM Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians	36.837.637.8		85.285.685.6
Botafogo	7.04.23.3		46.936.231.7		6.110.513.4		7.89.29.8
Avai	0.10.20.4		3.54.78.2		60.055.143.9		16.215.714.5

Week of 7/1
Corinthians vs BotafogoIf winner is:HomeEmpateAway
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians	45.535.430.6		90.684.680.9		0.10.40.6		2.83.53.9
Gremio	16.418.719.2		70.070.169.6
Botafogo	2.84.27.5		31.536.247.1		13.110.66.3		9.89.27.8

Palmeiras vs GremioHomeEmpateAway
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians	38.338.335.9		85.485.685.4
Gremio	13.516.423.6		63.068.277.8		2.61.80.8		5.95.44.3
Palmeiras	6.94.02.8		46.635.430.5		6.110.513.0		7.89.29.9

Flamengo vs Sao PauloHomeEmpateAway
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	7.64.63.6		49.638.633.5		5.08.811.5		7.48.89.5
Sao Paulo	0.60.81.6		11.314.121.5		34.229.620.5		13.512.811.4

Coritiba vs Vasco da GamaHomeEmpateAway
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Vasco da Gama	2.22.95.1		26.130.841.4		16.113.17.8		10.69.98.4
Coritiba	4.72.62.0		39.729.224.7		8.514.017.3		8.710.110.8

Atletico-GO vs SantosHomeEmpateAway
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Santos	3.03.86.5		30.835.346.2		13.410.56.0		9.99.27.8
Atletico-GO	0.30.10.1		7.54.23.1		44.755.961.0		14.615.816.3

Fluminense vs ChapecoenseHomeEmpateAway
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Fluminense	4.82.72.1		39.629.224.7		8.414.017.3		8.710.110.8
Chapecoense	1.11.52.9		17.621.330.6		24.420.513.2		12.111.49.9

Atletico-MG vs CruzeiroHomeEmpateAway
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Cruzeiro	1.52.13.8		21.125.235.1		20.616.910.5		11.410.79.3
Atletico-MG	2.81.51.1		29.020.116.5		14.021.525.7		10.111.612.3

Sport Recife vs Atletico-PRHomeEmpateAway
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Atletico-PR	1.62.13.8		21.125.134.9		20.716.910.5		11.410.79.3
Sport Recife	2.11.10.8		24.916.813.6		17.125.530.1		10.812.212.9

Avai vs Ponte PretaHomeEmpateAway
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Ponte Preta	1.62.13.9		21.325.134.8		20.816.810.4		11.410.79.3
Avai	0.40.20.1		8.24.73.5		43.855.160.2		14.515.716.2

Vitoria vs BahiaHomeEmpateAway
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Bahia	0.40.61.2		9.211.517.9		39.534.024.1		14.113.412.0
Vitoria	0.60.30.2		11.56.95.4		34.545.651.3		13.514.815.4

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Campeonato Brasileiro - Serie A Title Chances 50/50

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