Points
Chance Will Win Championship

Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
Chance will win titleLibertadoresChance will finish season at seedSerie B
MondayPGW-D-LGD%Change%Change1234567891011121314151617181920Avg.Change%ChangeRPI9/22
Sao Paulo5014-8-31736.0%+3.598.8%-0.03624171273100000002.4+0.07No2America-MGSao Paulo Futebol Clube
InternacionalLChapecoense 1-24914-7-41728.5-8.098.1-0.72925191384100000000002.7-0.310.0%1Sport Club Internacional
Palmeiras4713-8-42016.2+1.994.9+0.016192018148310000000003.4+0.060.03Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
Flamengo4513-6-6159.5+1.390.0+0.010141719181362110000000004.1+0.060.05Clube de Regatas do Flamengo
Gremio4412-8-5196.3+0.885.3-0.061114182016842100000000004.6+0.040.0+0.04Gremio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense
Atletico-MG4212-6-7123.2+0.575.4-0.037101519211163211000000005.3+0.030.0+0.06Clube Atletico Mineiro
Cruzeiro348-10-700.0+0.012.3+0.000113713131210976543211010.0-0.054.6+0.37Cruzeiro Esporte Clube
Santos3218-8-850.1+0.012.1+0.000113712121110987654321010.3-0.056.1+0.48Santos Futebol Clube
Corinthians339-6-1050.0+0.010.9+0.000013612121210987654321010.3-0.055.6+0.49Sport Club Corinthians Paulista
Fluminense318-7-10-60.0+0.05.2+0.000001368910999876543111.9-0.0712.6+0.712Fluminense Football Club
Atletico-PR308-6-1120.0+0.03.5+0.00000125789999887754112.4-0.0816.2+0.916Clube Atletico Paranaense
America-MG308-6-11-50.0+0.03.8+0.00000125789999988753112.4-0.0816.0+0.913at Sao PauloAmerica Futebol Clube-MG
Vitoria298-5-12-190.0+0.02.4+0.00000124678899999875113.2-0.0821.5+1.117Esporte Clube Vitoria
Bahia297-8-10-50.0+0.02.2-0.00000114567889999986113.4-0.0823.7+1.111Esporte Clube Bahia
Botafogo297-8-10-110.0+0.02.1+0.00000013567889999986113.4-0.0824.0+1.210Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas
ChapecoenseWInternacional 2-1286-10-9-100.01.2+0.60000012456778991011119214.2+0.9732.3-11.614Associacao Chapecoense de Futebol
Ceara276-9-10-80.00.8+0.000000123456778910111212414.9-0.0938.9+1.415Ceara Sporting Club
Vasco da Gama2516-7-11-90.00.8+0.000000123445678910111313515.1-0.0942.0+1.419Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama
Sport Recife246-6-13-170.00.20000000122345689121623816.5-0.0860.0+1.418Sport Club do Recife
Parana163-7-15-22No0.0000000000001135147519.5-0.0396.6+0.320Parana Clube

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 9/16
Chapecoense 2 Internacional 1
8:00 PM Mon100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Sao Paulo+3.6
Internacional-8.2
-0.8
-0.3
Palmeiras+2.0
Flamengo+1.3
Gremio+0.9
Atletico-MG+0.5
Fluminense+0.8
Atletico-PR+0.9
America-MG+0.9
Vitoria+1.1
Bahia+1.1
Botafogo+1.1
Chapecoense+0.6
-11.7
+1.0
Ceara+1.5
Vasco da Gama+1.4
Sport Recife+1.5
Santos 0 Sao Paulo 0
4:00 PM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Sao Paulo-3.0
-0.1
Internacional+1.4
Palmeiras+0.8
Flamengo+0.4
+0.3
Gremio+0.3
+0.4
Atletico-MG+0.5
Santos-2.3
+0.4
-0.3
Bahia 1 Palmeiras 1
4:00 PM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Sao Paulo+0.9
Internacional+0.9
Palmeiras-2.3
-0.3
*No
-0.1
Flamengo+0.2
Gremio+0.2
Atletico-PR-0.2
Bahia-0.8
+1.8
-0.3
Botafogo-0.3
Chapecoense-0.2
Ceara-0.2
Vasco da Gama-0.2
Sport Recife-0.2
Cruzeiro 0 Atletico-MG 0
4:00 PM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Sao Paulo+0.3
Internacional+0.2
Atletico-MG-0.8
-1.4
-0.1
Cruzeiro-2.4
+0.3
-0.2
Santos+0.7
Fluminense+0.4
Atletico-PR 3 Fluminense 1
4:00 PM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Gremio+0.4
Atletico-MG+0.5
Fluminense-3.6
+4.1
-0.9
Atletico-PR+1.5
-9.6
+1.1
Botafogo+0.6
Chapecoense+0.7
Ceara+0.7
Vasco da Gama+0.7
Sport Recife+0.7
Corinthians 2 Sport Recife 1
7:00 PM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Gremio-0.6
Atletico-MG-0.7
Corinthians+3.8
-5.6
+1.1
Atletico-PR-0.5
Vitoria-0.5
Bahia-0.5
Botafogo-0.6
Chapecoense-0.6
Ceara-0.6
Vasco da Gama-0.6
Sport RecifeNo
-0.3
+10.5
-0.8
Botafogo 1 America-MG 0
11:00 AM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Gremio+0.4
Atletico-MG+0.4
Atletico-PR+0.6
America-MG-2.9
+5.2
-1.0
Vitoria+0.5
Bahia+0.6
Botafogo+0.9
-11.4
+1.1
Chapecoense+0.8
Ceara+0.8
Vasco da Gama+0.8
Sport Recife+0.8
Week of 9/22
Sao Paulo vs America-MGIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
4:00 PM Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Sao Paulo46.332.927.7
99.7*98.897.9
2.12.52.8
Internacional24.529.831.7
2.82.72.6
Palmeiras13.617.018.2
95.0*95.094.8
3.53.43.4
Flamengo7.910.010.9
90.190.189.8
4.14.04.0
America-MG1.82.76.4
22.417.58.6
13.412.811.3
Corinthians vs InternacionalHomeDrawAway
4:00 PM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Sao Paulo39.337.431.8
98.798.898.9
2.42.42.5
Internacional20.825.438.2
96.898.299.5
3.12.82.3
Palmeiras18.017.013.9
94.795.195.1
3.43.43.5
Corinthians16.98.86.3
2.36.08.5
9.310.611.2
Sport Recife vs PalmeirasHomeDrawAway
6:00 PM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Sao Paulo38.037.033.3
2.42.42.5
Internacional30.429.426.2
2.62.72.8
Palmeiras10.813.723.2
92.294.697.9
3.83.52.9
Sport Recife0.40.10.0
47.863.769.9
15.616.717.2
Flamengo vs Atletico-MGHomeDrawAway
4:00 PM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Flamengo14.77.95.5
95.689.484.8
No0.00.0
3.44.24.6
Atletico-MG1.42.45.6
66.873.585.4
5.95.54.6
Gremio vs CearaHomeDrawAway
11:00 AM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Gremio9.94.93.6
92.084.179.3
4.04.75.1
Ceara0.20.41.5
48.741.927.1
15.715.213.8
Cruzeiro vs SantosHomeDrawAway
7:00 PM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Cruzeiro19.110.16.9
1.74.87.4
8.910.311.0
Santos7.09.918.6
9.36.62.6
11.310.69.2
Santos vs Vasco da GamaHomeDrawAway
7:30 PM Thu100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Santos18.29.97.4
2.46.49.7
9.210.611.2
Vasco da GamaNoNo0.0
0.30.51.5
52.245.229.9
15.915.414.0
Chapecoense vs FluminenseHomeDrawAway
8:00 PM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Fluminense2.63.98.6
18.813.45.9
12.912.210.7
Chapecoense0.0NoNo
2.30.80.4
20.934.642.3
13.114.515.2
Vitoria vs BotafogoHomeDrawAway
6:00 PM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Vitoria4.21.61.0
11.923.230.0
12.013.414.2
Botafogo0.91.43.7
32.925.813.8
14.413.712.2
Atletico-PR vs ParanaHomeDrawAway
4:00 PM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Atletico-PR6.02.61.7
8.717.522.7
11.312.713.4
ParanaNo0.00.0
98.597.694.0
19.719.619.2
Vasco da Gama vs BahiaHomeDrawAway
8:00 PM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Bahia1.01.53.9
32.925.313.4
14.413.712.2
Vasco da Gama1.50.50.3
29.345.052.9
14.015.416.0

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Thank you Marcos Vilhena for adding this league.