Campeonato Brasileiro - Serie A Title Chances 50/50

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Chance will win title														Libertadores			Chance will finish season at seed																						Serie B
	Monday		P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI	9/22

Sao Paulo			50		14	-	8	-	3	17	36.0	%	+3.5	98.8	%	-0.0	36	24	17	12	7	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0							2.4	+0.07	No			2	America-MG	Sao Paulo Futebol Clube
Internacional	L	Chapecoense 1-2	49		14	-	7	-	4	17	28.5		-8.0	98.1		-0.7	29	25	19	13	8	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0				2.7	-0.31	0.0	%		1		Sport Club Internacional
Palmeiras			47		13	-	8	-	4	20	16.2		+1.9	94.9		+0.0	16	19	20	18	14	8	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0				3.4	+0.06	0.0			3		Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
Flamengo			45		13	-	6	-	6	15	9.5		+1.3	90.0		+0.0	10	14	17	19	18	13	6	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		4.1	+0.06	0.0			5		Clube de Regatas do Flamengo

Gremio			44		12	-	8	-	5	19	6.3		+0.8	85.3		-0.0	6	11	14	18	20	16	8	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.6	+0.04	0.0		+0.0	4		Gremio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense
Atletico-MG			42		12	-	6	-	7	12	3.2		+0.5	75.4		-0.0	3	7	10	15	19	21	11	6	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.3	+0.03	0.0		+0.0	6		Clube Atletico Mineiro

Cruzeiro			34		8	-	10	-	7	0	0.0		+0.0	12.3		+0.0	0	0	1	1	3	7	13	13	12	10	9	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	10.0	-0.05	4.6		+0.3	7		Cruzeiro Esporte Clube
Santos			32	1	8	-	8	-	8	5	0.1		+0.0	12.1		+0.0	0	0	1	1	3	7	12	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	0	10.3	-0.05	6.1		+0.4	8		Santos Futebol Clube
Corinthians			33		9	-	6	-	10	5	0.0		+0.0	10.9		+0.0	0	0	0	1	3	6	12	12	12	10	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	0	10.3	-0.05	5.6		+0.4	9		Sport Club Corinthians Paulista
Fluminense			31		8	-	7	-	10	-6	0.0		+0.0	5.2		+0.0	0	0	0	0	1	3	6	8	9	10	9	9	9	8	7	6	5	4	3	1	11.9	-0.07	12.6		+0.7	12		Fluminense Football Club
Atletico-PR			30		8	-	6	-	11	2	0.0		+0.0	3.5		+0.0	0	0	0	0	1	2	5	7	8	9	9	9	9	8	8	7	7	5	4	1	12.4	-0.08	16.2		+0.9	16		Clube Atletico Paranaense
America-MG			30		8	-	6	-	11	-5	0.0		+0.0	3.8		+0.0	0	0	0	0	1	2	5	7	8	9	9	9	9	9	8	8	7	5	3	1	12.4	-0.08	16.0		+0.9	13	at Sao Paulo	America Futebol Clube-MG
Vitoria			29		8	-	5	-	12	-19	0.0		+0.0	2.4		+0.0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	6	7	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	8	7	5	1	13.2	-0.08	21.5		+1.1	17		Esporte Clube Vitoria
Bahia			29		7	-	8	-	10	-5	0.0		+0.0	2.2		-0.0	0	0	0	0	1	1	4	5	6	7	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	8	6	1	13.4	-0.08	23.7		+1.1	11		Esporte Clube Bahia
Botafogo			29		7	-	8	-	10	-11	0.0		+0.0	2.1		+0.0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	5	6	7	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	8	6	1	13.4	-0.08	24.0		+1.2	10		Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas
Chapecoense	W	Internacional 2-1	28		6	-	10	-	9	-10	0.0			1.2		+0.6	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	5	6	7	7	8	9	9	10	11	11	9	2	14.2	+0.97	32.3		-11.6	14		Associacao Chapecoense de Futebol

Ceara			27		6	-	9	-	10	-8	0.0			0.8		+0.0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	7	8	9	10	11	12	12	4	14.9	-0.09	38.9		+1.4	15		Ceara Sporting Club
Vasco da Gama			25	1	6	-	7	-	11	-9	0.0			0.8		+0.0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	4	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	13	13	5	15.1	-0.09	42.0		+1.4	19		Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama
Sport Recife			24		6	-	6	-	13	-17	0.0			0.2			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	3	4	5	6	8	9	12	16	23	8	16.5	-0.08	60.0		+1.4	18		Sport Club do Recife
Parana			16		3	-	7	-	15	-22	No			0.0						0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	5	14	75	19.5	-0.03	96.6		+0.3	20		Parana Clube

Week of 9/16
Chapecoense 2 Internacional 1
8:00 PM Mon	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Sao Paulo	+3.6
Internacional	-8.2		-0.8				-0.3
Palmeiras	+2.0
Flamengo	+1.3
Gremio	+0.9
Atletico-MG	+0.5
Fluminense					+0.8
Atletico-PR					+0.9
America-MG					+0.9
Vitoria					+1.1
Bahia					+1.1
Botafogo					+1.1
Chapecoense			+0.6		-11.7		+1.0
Ceara					+1.5
Vasco da Gama					+1.4
Sport Recife					+1.5

Santos 0 Sao Paulo 0
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Sao Paulo	-3.0						-0.1
Internacional	+1.4
Palmeiras	+0.8
Flamengo	+0.4		+0.3
Gremio	+0.3		+0.4
Atletico-MG			+0.5
Santos			-2.3		+0.4		-0.3

Bahia 1 Palmeiras 1
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Sao Paulo	+0.9
Internacional	+0.9
Palmeiras	-2.3		-0.3		*No		-0.1
Flamengo	+0.2
Gremio	+0.2
Atletico-PR					-0.2
Bahia			-0.8		+1.8		-0.3
Botafogo					-0.3
Chapecoense					-0.2
Ceara					-0.2
Vasco da Gama					-0.2
Sport Recife					-0.2

Cruzeiro 0 Atletico-MG 0
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Sao Paulo	+0.3
Internacional	+0.2
Atletico-MG	-0.8		-1.4				-0.1
Cruzeiro			-2.4		+0.3		-0.2
Santos			+0.7
Fluminense			+0.4

Atletico-PR 3 Fluminense 1
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Gremio			+0.4
Atletico-MG			+0.5
Fluminense			-3.6		+4.1		-0.9
Atletico-PR			+1.5		-9.6		+1.1
Botafogo					+0.6
Chapecoense					+0.7
Ceara					+0.7
Vasco da Gama					+0.7
Sport Recife					+0.7

Corinthians 2 Sport Recife 1
7:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Gremio			-0.6
Atletico-MG			-0.7
Corinthians			+3.8		-5.6		+1.1
Atletico-PR					-0.5
Vitoria					-0.5
Bahia					-0.5
Botafogo					-0.6
Chapecoense					-0.6
Ceara					-0.6
Vasco da Gama					-0.6
Sport Recife	No		-0.3		+10.5		-0.8

Botafogo 1 America-MG 0
11:00 AM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Gremio			+0.4
Atletico-MG			+0.4
Atletico-PR					+0.6
America-MG			-2.9		+5.2		-1.0
Vitoria					+0.5
Bahia					+0.6
Botafogo			+0.9		-11.4		+1.1
Chapecoense					+0.8
Ceara					+0.8
Vasco da Gama					+0.8
Sport Recife					+0.8

Week of 9/22
Sao Paulo vs America-MGIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Sao Paulo	46.332.927.7		99.7*98.897.9				2.12.52.8
Internacional	24.529.831.7						2.82.72.6
Palmeiras	13.617.018.2		95.0*95.094.8				3.53.43.4
Flamengo	7.910.010.9		90.190.189.8				4.14.04.0
America-MG			1.82.76.4		22.417.58.6		13.412.811.3

Corinthians vs InternacionalHomeDrawAway
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Sao Paulo	39.337.431.8		98.798.898.9				2.42.42.5
Internacional	20.825.438.2		96.898.299.5				3.12.82.3
Palmeiras	18.017.013.9		94.795.195.1				3.43.43.5
Corinthians			16.98.86.3		2.36.08.5		9.310.611.2

Sport Recife vs PalmeirasHomeDrawAway
6:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Sao Paulo	38.037.033.3						2.42.42.5
Internacional	30.429.426.2						2.62.72.8
Palmeiras	10.813.723.2		92.294.697.9				3.83.52.9
Sport Recife			0.40.10.0		47.863.769.9		15.616.717.2

Flamengo vs Atletico-MGHomeDrawAway
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Flamengo	14.77.95.5		95.689.484.8		No0.00.0		3.44.24.6
Atletico-MG	1.42.45.6		66.873.585.4				5.95.54.6

Gremio vs CearaHomeDrawAway
11:00 AM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Gremio	9.94.93.6		92.084.179.3				4.04.75.1
Ceara			0.20.41.5		48.741.927.1		15.715.213.8

Cruzeiro vs SantosHomeDrawAway
7:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Cruzeiro			19.110.16.9		1.74.87.4		8.910.311.0
Santos			7.09.918.6		9.36.62.6		11.310.69.2

Santos vs Vasco da GamaHomeDrawAway
7:30 PM Thu	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Santos			18.29.97.4		2.46.49.7		9.210.611.2
Vasco da Gama	NoNo0.0		0.30.51.5		52.245.229.9		15.915.414.0

Chapecoense vs FluminenseHomeDrawAway
8:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Fluminense			2.63.98.6		18.813.45.9		12.912.210.7
Chapecoense	0.0NoNo		2.30.80.4		20.934.642.3		13.114.515.2

Vitoria vs BotafogoHomeDrawAway
6:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Vitoria			4.21.61.0		11.923.230.0		12.013.414.2
Botafogo			0.91.43.7		32.925.813.8		14.413.712.2

Atletico-PR vs ParanaHomeDrawAway
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Atletico-PR			6.02.61.7		8.717.522.7		11.312.713.4
Parana			No0.00.0		98.597.694.0		19.719.619.2

Vasco da Gama vs BahiaHomeDrawAway
8:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Bahia			1.01.53.9		32.925.313.4		14.413.712.2
Vasco da Gama			1.50.50.3		29.345.052.9		14.015.416.0

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Campeonato Brasileiro - Serie A Title Chances 50/50

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