Campeonato Brasileiro - Serie A Title Chances 50/50

																	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will win title														Libertadores			Chance will finish season at seed																						Serie B
	4/15		P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI	Sunday

Atletico-PR	W	Chapecoense 5-1	3		1	-	0	-	0	4	6.9	%	+1.9	36.8	%	+6.8	7	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	9.4	+1.08	14.7	%	-5.3	1	at Gremio	Clube Atletico Paranaense
America-MG	W	Sport Recife 3-0	3		1	-	0	-	0	3	6.9		+1.9	36.8		+6.8	7	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	9.4	+1.07	14.7		-5.2	1	at Flamengo	America Futebol Clube-MG
Santos			3		1	-	0	-	0	2	6.9		-0.1	36.8		-0.3	7	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	9.4	-0.05	14.7		+0.2	1	at Bahia	Santos Futebol Clube
Internacional	W	Bahia 2-0	3		1	-	0	-	0	2	6.9		+1.9	36.7		+6.7	7	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	9.4	+1.08	14.7		-5.3	1	at Palmeiras	Sport Club Internacional

Corinthians	W	Fluminense 2-1	3		1	-	0	-	0	1	6.9		+1.9	36.7		+6.6	7	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	9.4	+1.07	14.7		-5.3	1	at Parana	Sport Club Corinthians Paulista
Vasco da Gama	W	Atletico-MG 2-1	3		1	-	0	-	0	1	6.9		+1.9	36.7		+6.6	7	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	9.4	+1.06	14.7		-5.3	1	at Chapecoense	Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama

Gremio			3		1	-	0	-	0	1	6.9		-0.1	36.7		-0.3	7	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	9.4	-0.04	14.7		+0.1	1	Atletico-PR	Gremio Foot-Ball Porto Alegrense
Sao Paulo	W	Parana 1-0	3		1	-	0	-	0	1	6.9		+1.9	36.7		+6.6	7	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	9.4	+1.06	14.7		-5.2	1	at Ceara	Sao Paulo Futebol Clube
Flamengo			1		0	-	1	-	0	0	4.3		-0.1	27.8		-0.2	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	10.8	-0.03	21.3		+0.1	9	America-MG	Clube de Regatas do Flamengo
Vitoria			1		0	-	1	-	0	0	4.3		-0.1	27.8		-0.2	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	10.8	-0.03	21.3		+0.1	9	at Atletico-MG	Esporte Clube Vitoria
Botafogo	T	Palmeiras 1-1	1		0	-	1	-	0	0	4.3		-0.7	27.8		-2.3	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	10.8	-0.34	21.3		+1.4	9	at Sport Recife	Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas
Palmeiras	T	Botafogo 1-1	1		0	-	1	-	0	0	4.3		-0.7	27.8		-2.4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	10.8	-0.34	21.3		+1.4	9	Internacional	Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras
Parana	L	Sao Paulo 0-1	0		0	-	0	-	1	-1	3.5		-1.6	24.4		-5.7	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	7	11.4	-0.92	24.6		+4.6	9	Corinthians	Parana Clube
Atletico-MG	L	Vasco da Gama 1-2	0		0	-	0	-	1	-1	3.5		-1.6	24.4		-5.7	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	7	11.4	-0.92	24.6		+4.6	9	Vitoria	Clube Atletico Mineiro
Fluminense	L	Corinthians 1-2	0		0	-	0	-	1	-1	3.5		-1.6	24.4		-5.7	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	7	11.4	-0.93	24.6		+4.7	9	Cruzeiro	Fluminense Football Club
Cruzeiro			0		0	-	0	-	1	-1	3.5		-0.0	24.4		-0.1	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	7	11.4	-0.03	24.6		+0.1	9	at Fluminense	Cruzeiro Esporte Clube

Bahia	L	Internacional 0-2	0		0	-	0	-	1	-2	3.5		-1.6	24.4		-5.7	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	7	11.4	-0.93	24.6		+4.7	9	Santos	Esporte Clube Bahia
Ceara			0		0	-	0	-	1	-2	3.5		-0.0	24.4		-0.1	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	7	11.4	-0.02	24.6		+0.1	9	Sao Paulo	Ceara Sporting Club
Sport Recife	L	America-MG 0-3	0		0	-	0	-	1	-3	3.5		-1.6	24.3		-5.8	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	7	11.4	-0.93	24.6		+4.7	9	Botafogo	Sport Club do Recife
Chapecoense	L	Atletico-PR 1-5	0		0	-	0	-	1	-4	3.4		-1.6	24.3		-5.7	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	7	11.4	-0.93	24.7		+4.7	9	Vasco da Gama	Associacao Chapecoense de Futebol

Week of 4/14
Cruzeiro 0 Gremio 1
4:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Atletico-PR			-0.1
America-MG			-0.1
Santos			-0.1
Vasco da Gama			-0.1
Gremio	+2.0		+6.9		-5.4		+1.1
Sao Paulo			-0.1
Flamengo			-0.1
Vitoria			-0.1
Botafogo			-0.1
Parana			-0.1
Atletico-MG			-0.1
Fluminense			-0.1
Cruzeiro	-1.6		-5.7		+4.7		-0.9
Bahia			-0.1

Atletico-PR 5 Chapecoense 1
7:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Atletico-PR	+2.0		+7.0		-5.4		+1.1
Chapecoense	-1.6		-5.7		+4.6		-0.9

Internacional 2 Bahia 0
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Internacional	+2.0		+6.9		-5.3		+1.1
Bahia	-1.6		-5.7		+4.7		-0.9

Santos 2 Ceara 0
9:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Santos	+2.0		+6.8		-5.4		+1.1
Internacional			-0.2
Ceara	-1.6		-5.7		+4.6		-0.9

Sao Paulo 1 Parana 0
8:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Sao Paulo	+2.0		+6.9		-5.4		+1.1
Parana	-1.6		-5.7		+4.7		-0.9

America-MG 3 Sport Recife 0
11:00 AM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
America-MG	+2.0		+6.8		-5.3		+1.1
Sport Recife	-1.6		-5.7		+4.7		-0.9

Vasco da Gama 2 Atletico-MG 1
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Atletico-PR			*-0.2
Vasco da Gama	+2.0		+7.0		-5.4		+1.1
Atletico-MG	-1.6		-5.8		+4.7		-0.9

Corinthians 2 Fluminense 1
4:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Corinthians	+2.0		+6.9		-5.4		+1.1
Fluminense	-1.6		-5.6		+4.6		-0.9

Vitoria 2 Flamengo 2
7:00 PM Sat	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Atletico-PR			+0.2
America-MG			+0.2
Santos			+0.2
Internacional			+0.2
Corinthians			+0.2
Vasco da Gama			+0.2
Gremio			+0.2
Sao Paulo			+0.2
Flamengo	-0.6		-1.9		+1.1		-0.3
Vitoria	-0.6		-1.9		+1.1		-0.3
Botafogo			+0.2		-0.2
Palmeiras			+0.2
Parana			+0.2		-0.2
Atletico-MG			+0.2
Fluminense			+0.2
Cruzeiro			+0.2
Bahia			+0.2
Ceara			+0.2		-0.2
Sport Recife			+0.2
Chapecoense			+0.2

Botafogo 1 Palmeiras 1
8:00 PM Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Atletico-PR			+0.3		-0.2
Internacional					-0.2
Corinthians			+0.2
Vasco da Gama			+0.3
Gremio			+0.2
Sao Paulo			+0.3
Vitoria			+0.3
Botafogo	-0.6		-1.9		+1.0		-0.3
Palmeiras	-0.7		-1.9		+1.1		-0.3
Parana			+0.2
Atletico-MG			+0.2		-0.2
Fluminense			+0.3
Cruzeiro			+0.2		-0.2
Sport Recife			+0.3
Chapecoense			+0.2

Week of 4/22
Gremio vs Atletico-PRIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Atletico-PR	4.86.19.5		30.534.844.4		18.515.610.3		10.39.78.3
Gremio	9.56.14.8		44.334.730.4		10.315.618.6		8.39.710.3

Palmeiras vs InternacionalHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Internacional	4.96.19.4		30.534.744.3		18.615.610.2		10.39.78.3
Palmeiras	6.13.72.9		34.525.922.2		15.722.626.2		9.711.111.8

Flamengo vs America-MGHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
America-MG	4.96.19.5		30.534.744.3		18.615.610.2		10.39.78.3
Flamengo	6.13.72.9		34.525.922.2		15.722.626.2		9.711.111.8

Bahia vs SantosHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Atletico-PR	7.07.06.8		36.837.036.6		14.814.614.7
Santos	4.96.19.4		30.534.744.3		18.615.610.2		10.39.78.3
Internacional	6.97.06.8		36.737.036.6		14.814.614.7
Corinthians	6.97.06.8		*36.737.036.6		14.814.614.7
Bahia	5.03.02.3		30.722.619.2		18.526.029.9		10.311.712.3

Ceara vs Sao PauloHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Atletico-PR	7.07.06.8		*36.837.036.6		14.814.614.7
America-MG	6.97.06.8		36.837.036.6		14.814.614.7
Santos	6.97.06.8		36.737.036.6		14.814.614.7
Internacional	6.97.06.8		36.737.036.6		14.814.614.7
Vasco da Gama	6.97.06.8		36.737.036.6		14.814.614.7
Sao Paulo	4.96.19.4		30.534.744.2		18.715.610.2		10.39.78.3
Ceara	5.03.02.3		30.722.619.2		18.526.029.9		10.311.712.3

Parana vs CorinthiansHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Atletico-PR	7.07.06.8		36.837.036.6		14.814.614.7
Internacional	6.97.06.8		*36.737.036.6		14.814.614.7
Corinthians	4.96.19.4		30.534.744.2		18.715.610.2		10.39.78.3
Gremio	6.97.06.8		36.737.036.6		14.814.614.7
Parana	5.03.02.3		30.722.619.2		18.526.029.8		10.311.712.3

Chapecoense vs Vasco da GamaHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Santos	6.97.06.8		*36.737.036.6		14.814.614.7
Internacional	6.97.06.8		36.737.036.6		14.814.614.7
Corinthians	6.97.06.8		36.737.036.6		14.814.614.7
Vasco da Gama	4.96.19.4		30.534.744.2		18.715.610.2		10.39.78.3
Gremio	6.97.06.8		36.737.036.6		14.814.614.7
Sao Paulo	6.97.06.8		36.737.036.6		14.814.614.7
Chapecoense	5.03.02.3		30.722.519.1		18.526.029.9		10.311.712.3

Atletico-MG vs VitoriaHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Vitoria	2.93.76.0		22.325.934.5		26.322.515.6		11.811.19.7
Atletico-MG	4.93.02.3		30.722.619.2		18.425.929.9		10.311.712.3

Sport Recife vs BotafogoHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Botafogo	2.93.76.0		22.325.934.5		26.322.515.6		11.811.19.7
Sport Recife	4.93.02.3		30.722.519.2		18.526.029.9		10.311.712.3

Fluminense vs CruzeiroHomeDrawAway
Sun	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Libertadores	100.0*	Serie B	100.0*	Average seed
Fluminense	4.93.02.3		30.722.619.3		18.425.929.9		10.311.712.3
Cruzeiro	2.33.04.9		19.322.630.7		29.925.918.4		12.311.710.3

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Campeonato Brasileiro - Serie A Title Chances 50/50

Big Games