How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 9/14 100.0* Serie A 100.0* Serie C 100.0* Average seed Vitoria 0 Guarani 1 +0.3 -11.3 +0.9 Figueirense 1 Sport Recife 2 -0.1 -1.0 +0.1 Operario-PR 2 Ponte Preta 1 *-0.1 Londrina 2 Coritiba 1 +0.7 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Guarani vs Parana +0.6-0.2-0.4 -11.5+3.1+9.5 +1.0-0.3-0.8 Bragantino vs Londrina -0.6-0.2+0.7 +0.1+0.0-0.1 Criciuma vs Atletico-GO +0.0*+0.0-0.1 +1.2-0.3-1.0 -0.1+0.0+0.1 Sport Recife vs America-MG -0.5*-0.1+0.6 Vila Nova vs Botafogo-SP +1.0-0.4-0.8 Cuiaba vs Oeste -0.7-0.2+0.8 Brasil de Pelotas vs Figueirense -0.4-0.5+0.7 Sao Bento vs Vitoria +0.1-0.7+0.3 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 9/24 100.0* Serie A 100.0* Serie C 100.0* Average seed Guarani vs Criciuma +0.5-0.2-0.4 -12.5+2.7+10.7 +1.1-0.3-0.9 Figueirense vs Bragantino +1.3-0.4-1.0 -0.1+0.0+0.1 Vitoria vs Atletico-GO +1.3-0.3-1.1 -0.1+0.0+0.1 Vila Nova vs CRB +1.1-0.3-0.9 -0.1+0.0+0.0 Londrina vs Sport Recife +0.7-0.2-0.6 -0.1+0.0+0.0 Botafogo-SP vs Operario-PR +0.1*-0.1-0.1 Cuiaba vs Coritiba +0.1*+0.0-0.1 Parana vs Ponte Preta -0.3*-0.1+0.3 America-MG vs Brasil de Pelotas *-0.1-0.2+0.2 Oeste vs Sao Bento +0.1-0.5+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

## What If

Chances based on how well the Guarani finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance Chance will finish season at seed TP W - D - L wins title Serie A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Serie C Count 70 16 - 0 - 0 90.7 % Yes 91 9 0 No 958 68 15 - 1 - 0 80.0 Yes 80 20 No 20 67 15 - 0 - 1 73.1 Yes 73 23 4 No 26 66 14 - 2 - 0 56.5 Yes 56 40 3 No 62 65 14 - 1 - 1 50.2 Yes 50 37 12 0 No 219 64 13 - 3 - 0 39.6 Yes 40 43 15 2 No 371 * 63 13 - 2 - 1 26.5 99.9 % 26 45 24 4 0 No 952 62 13 - 1 - 2 14.2 98.6 14 42 31 10 1 0 No 1,886 * 61 12 - 3 - 1 7.9 95.8 8 30 40 18 4 0 0 No 3,423 * 60 12 - 2 - 2 3.3 87.8 3 19 36 29 11 1 0 No 6,970 * 59 12 - 1 - 3 0.8 72.6 1 10 28 34 21 5 1 0 No 11,810 * 58 11 - 3 - 2 0.2 51.9 0 3 16 32 30 14 3 1 0 0 No 19,259 * 57 11 - 2 - 3 0.0 28.6 0 1 6 21 32 26 11 2 0 0 0 No 32,456 * 56 10 - 4 - 2 0.0 11.2 0 0 2 9 24 31 23 9 2 0 0 No 48,542 * 55 10 - 3 - 3 No 2.7 0 0 2 11 26 31 20 7 1 0 0 No 72,271 * 54 10 - 2 - 4 No 0.4 0 0 3 13 26 30 19 7 1 0 0 0 No 105,806 * 53 9 - 4 - 3 No 0.0 0 0 0 4 13 26 29 19 7 1 0 0 No 143,538 * 52 9 - 3 - 4 No No 0 1 4 14 26 29 18 6 1 0 0 No 192,091 * 51 9 - 2 - 5 No No 0 0 1 4 14 26 29 18 6 1 0 0 No 248,946 * 50 8 - 4 - 4 No No 0 0 1 4 14 27 29 18 6 1 0 0 0.0 % 306,244 * 49 8 - 3 - 5 No No 0 0 1 4 14 27 30 18 6 1 0 0 0.1 371,987 * 48 7 - 5 - 4 No No 0 0 1 4 15 28 30 17 5 1 0 0 0.9 211,672 8 - 2 - 6 No No 0 0 1 4 15 28 29 17 5 1 0 0.8 223,421 * 47 7 - 4 - 5 No No 0 0 1 5 16 29 29 15 4 1 0 0 4.8 486,396 * 46 7 - 3 - 6 No No 0 0 1 6 19 31 27 13 3 0 0 16.1 532,990 * 45 6 - 5 - 5 No No 0 0 1 8 22 32 25 10 2 0 36.3 295,622 7 - 2 - 7 No No 0 0 1 8 22 33 25 9 2 0 36.0 266,079 * 44 6 - 4 - 6 No No 0 0 2 11 27 33 20 6 1 59.1 389,844 7 - 1 - 8 No No 0 0 2 11 26 33 21 6 1 60.5 180,404 * 43 6 - 3 - 7 No No 0 0 0 1 4 17 33 31 13 2 78.5 353,956 5 - 6 - 5 No No 0 0 0 4 16 32 32 14 2 79.9 212,837 * 42 5 - 5 - 6 No No 0 0 1 8 24 37 24 6 91.0 294,781 6 - 2 - 8 No No 0 0 1 8 24 37 24 6 91.1 242,808 * 41 5 - 4 - 7 No No 0 0 0 3 15 34 35 12 96.9 492,935 * 40 5 - 3 - 8 No No 0 0 1 7 27 42 22 99.1 440,714 * 39 4 - 5 - 7 No No 0 0 3 18 44 35 99.8 377,090 * 38 4 - 4 - 8 No No 0 0 1 11 40 49 100.0 309,944 * 37 4 - 3 - 9 No No 0 0 5 33 61 100.0 247,871 * 36 3 - 5 - 8 No No 0 0 3 25 72 100.0 188,681 * 35 3 - 4 - 9 No No 0 1 17 82 Yes 137,738 * 34 3 - 3 - 10 No No 0 0 12 88 Yes 96,656 * 33 2 - 5 - 9 No No 0 7 93 Yes 64,880 * 32 2 - 4 - 10 No No 0 4 96 Yes 40,445 * 31 2 - 3 - 11 No No 0 2 98 Yes 24,414 * 30 1 - 5 - 10 No No 1 99 Yes 13,903 * 29 1 - 4 - 11 No No 1 99 Yes 7,255 * 28 1 - 3 - 12 No No 0 100 Yes 3,589 * 27 1 - 2 - 13 No No 0 100 Yes 1,625 * 26 0 - 4 - 12 No No 0 100 Yes 648 * 22 -25 No No 100 Yes 1,285 * Total: 0.0 % 0.6 % 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 6 7 8 10 11 13 14 15 52.2 % 7,708,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship