"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/14100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Londrina 2 Coritiba 1 +0.3
+2.9
-8.2
+1.2
Figueirense 1 Sport Recife 2 -0.1
-0.4
-0.6
Parana 0 Cuiaba 0 +0.1
Operario-PR 2 Ponte Preta 1 -0.1
-0.1
Vitoria 0 Guarani 1 +0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Bragantino vs Londrina-0.4-0.2+0.5
-3.2-1.4+4.1
+5.4+1.2-6.2
-1.0-0.3+1.3
Criciuma vs Atletico-GO+0.1*+0.0-0.1
+0.3+0.1-0.4
+0.7-0.2-0.6
Sport Recife vs America-MG-0.1+0.0+0.0
-0.3+0.2+0.2
-0.3*-0.0+0.3
+0.0+0.0-0.1
Guarani vs Parana+0.2+0.1-0.3
+0.6-0.2-0.5
Cuiaba vs Oeste-0.2+0.1+0.2
-0.4-0.1+0.5
Vila Nova vs Botafogo-SP+0.2+0.1-0.3
+0.6-0.2-0.5
Coritiba vs CRB-0.1+0.2-0.0
Brasil de Pelotas vs Figueirense-0.1*+0.0+0.1
-0.2-0.3+0.4
Sao Bento vs Vitoria+0.1-0.4+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/24100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Londrina vs Sport Recife+0.5-0.2-0.4
+4.3-1.4-3.4
-6.2+1.2+5.5
+1.3-0.3-1.1
Figueirense vs Bragantino+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.2*+0.0-0.2
+0.7-0.2-0.6
Vitoria vs Atletico-GO+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.3+0.1-0.4
+0.7-0.2-0.6
Vila Nova vs CRB+0.3+0.1-0.3
+0.6-0.2-0.5
Botafogo-SP vs Operario-PR*-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Cuiaba vs Coritiba+0.1+0.2-0.2
Parana vs Ponte Preta-0.2+0.2+0.1
-0.1*-0.1+0.2
America-MG vs Brasil de Pelotas-0.1-0.1+0.1
Oeste vs Sao Bento*+0.0-0.3+0.2
Guarani vs Criciuma+0.1-0.4+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Londrina finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleSerie A1234567891011121314151617181920Serie CCount
7616-0-099.3%Yes991No959
7415-1-0YesYes100No19
7315-0-189.5Yes8911No19
7214-2-096.2Yes964No78
7114-1-191.6Yes9280No214
7013-3-089.1Yes89110No350*
6913-2-182.5Yes83171No968
6813-1-273.9Yes742510No1,933*
6712-3-167.6Yes682930No3,463*
6612-2-256.2100.0%5637600No6,932*
6512-1-343.4100.043431210No11,756*
6411-3-231.999.8324520300No19,307*
6311-2-320.799.1214328710No32,612*
6210-4-211.797.012363514300No48,563*
6110-3-35.592.352538247100No72,560*
6010-2-42.081.6215333215300No106,109*
599-4-30.664.4172334259200No143,174*
589-3-40.142.302122832196100No192,219*
579-2-50.021.30041731291541000No249,162*
568-4-40.07.8001720312612300No306,593*
558-3-5No1.80029223124102000No372,825*
547-5-4No0.30002102430229200No435,206*
537-4-5No0.00003122530218200No485,153*
527-3-6No0.00003122630207100No530,635*
516-5-5NoNo0013132730196100No296,223
7-2-7NoNo003132730196100No266,828*
506-4-6NoNo00141427301861000.0%569,337*
496-3-7NoNo00141528291751000.1565,814*
485-5-6NoNo00151629291541000.7294,993
6-2-8NoNo00151629291541000.6242,732*
475-4-7NoNo00161830271330003.9494,262*
465-3-8NoNo000172131261120013.8440,097*
454-5-7NoNo0021024322381032.5376,646*
444-4-8NoNo0003132832195055.9311,451*
434-3-9NoNo001518323013276.3248,667*
423-5-8NoNo0029253623689.6188,116*
413-4-9NoNo0031534351296.4137,272*
403-3-10NoNo001727422399.097,021*
392-5-9NoNo00318433699.864,593*
382-4-10NoNo01103950100.040,636*
372-3-11NoNo0053163100.024,451*
361-5-10NoNo022276Yes13,906*
351-4-11NoNo011584Yes7,332*
341-3-12NoNo0991Yes3,576*
331-2-13NoNo0694Yes1,626*
320-4-12NoNo496Yes653*
310-3-13NoNo397Yes226*
300-2-14NoNo199Yes72
290-1-15NoNo100Yes19
280-0-16NoNo0100Yes962
Total:0.5%7.0%1123456677888776543214.6%7,708,320

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship