MLS Playoff Chances 50/50

Impact +9.0, Galaxy -5.1
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Explain

100100100100100100100100100100
Chance will make playoffsWin CupSupporters ShieldChance will finish regular season at seedWooden Spoon
5/29PGW-D-LGD%Change%Change%Change12345678910Avg.Change%ChangeRPIWednesday
Rapids2818-4-2794.7%+0.210.2%+0.130.7%+0.8372215107432102.7+0.050.0%+0.01Colorado Rapids
FC Dallas278-3-4290.2+0.39.0+0.118.3+0.52321171310753213.3+0.060.1+0.04FC Dallas
Union2025-5-3480.2-0.37.7-0.15.2+0.22216131110876434.0-0.031.3+0.03CrewPhiladelphia Union
Real Salt Lake2036-2-4177.9+0.56.8+0.19.8+0.412141514121197524.4+0.060.7+0.06Real Salt Lake
GalaxyLImpact 2-32035-5-21176.3-5.16.6-0.98.9-3.711141414121197534.5-0.430.8+0.32Los Angeles Galaxy
ImpactWGalaxy 3-21925-4-4276.1+9.07.0+1.24.0+1.61815131110987644.3+0.681.8-1.87Montreal Impact
Red Bulls1916-1-7471.1-0.56.2-0.12.7+0.114131212111098754.8-0.042.3+0.014New York Red Bulls
Earthquakes2025-5-3169.5+0.75.5+0.25.7+0.271113131312119745.1+0.061.2+0.05at TimbersSan Jose Earthquakes
NYCFCTOrlando 2-21814-6-4-661.7-2.95.0-0.41.6-0.48101111111111101085.4-0.234.2+0.313New York City FC
Whitecaps216-3-6-261.2+0.74.4+0.13.4+0.158101213141311955.6+0.051.7+0.011Vancouver Whitecaps
Toronto FC1624-4-5-158.9-0.44.7-0.01.5+0.18910101011111110105.6-0.035.3+0.08Toronto FC
DC United1624-4-5058.9-0.44.8-0.11.4+0.1891010101111111095.6-0.035.3+0.012SoundersDC United
OrlandoTNYCFC 2-21623-7-3256.7-3.04.5-0.41.4-0.3799101011111111105.8-0.235.7+0.49Orlando City SC
Crew1433-5-4-253.7-0.44.2-0.01.2+0.078991010111112126.0-0.037.1+0.116at UnionColumbus Crew
Revolution1613-7-4-647.7-0.43.5-0.10.7+0.056891011121314146.4-0.038.2+0.118New England Revolution
Sounders1334-1-7-436.7+0.82.2+0.11.1+0.02357911131517187.1+0.048.4+0.115at DC UnitedSeattle Sounders
Timbers1614-4-6-336.0+0.72.1+0.11.0+0.11357911131617187.1+0.047.2+0.017EarthquakesPortland Timbers
Fire1132-5-5-435.2-0.42.4-0.00.4+0.0345689111316257.2-0.0316.0+0.120Chicago Fire
Sporting KC175-2-8-435.0+0.72.0+0.10.7+0.01347911141618177.2+0.047.1+0.110Sporting Kansas City
Dynamo1223-3-7-222.5+0.61.2+0.00.4+0.0113468111520318.0+0.0315.6+0.119Houston Dynamo

Direct Comments/Corrections to bgix on BigSoccer
Monte Carlo simulation: Does not prove mathematical Clinching or Elimination
Tie Breakers:
1. Wins
2. Goal Differential
3. Goals Scored

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 5/29
Impact 3 Galaxy 2
7:00 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Rapids+0.2
+0.1
+0.6
FC Dallas+0.3
+0.1
+0.4
Union-0.7
-0.2
+0.2
Real Salt Lake+0.6
+0.1
+0.3
Galaxy-5.3
-0.9
-3.9
+0.3
Impact+8.7
+1.2
+1.6
-1.8
Red Bulls-0.9
-0.1
+0.1
Earthquakes+0.7
+0.1
+0.2
NYCFC-1.0
-0.2
+0.1
+0.1
Whitecaps+0.8
+0.1
+0.1
Toronto FC-1.0
-0.1
+0.1
+0.1
DC United-1.0
-0.1
+0.1
+0.1
Orlando-1.0
-0.1
+0.1
Crew-1.0
-0.1
+0.1
Revolution-1.1
-0.1
+0.1
Sounders+0.8
+0.1
+0.1
Timbers+0.7
+0.1
+0.1
Fire-1.0
-0.1
+0.2
Sporting KC+0.7
+0.1
+0.1
Dynamo+0.6
+0.2
NYCFC 2 Orlando 2
4:00 PM Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
FC Dallas+0.2
Union+0.4
+0.1
+0.1
Real Salt Lake+0.2
Impact+0.5
+0.1
Red Bulls+0.4
NYCFC-1.9
-0.3
-0.5
+0.2
Toronto FC+0.5
+0.1
DC United+0.5
+0.1
Orlando-2.0
-0.3
-0.4
+0.3
Crew+0.5
Revolution+0.5
+0.1
Fire+0.5
+0.1
*-0.1
Dynamo*-0.1
DC United vs SoundersIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
8:00 PM Wed100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
FC Dallas90.690.389.5
9.09.08.9
18.218.418.3
Union79.480.480.9
7.67.77.8
Real Salt Lake78.778.276.9
6.96.86.7
Galaxy77.276.675.3
6.66.66.5
Impact75.276.376.8
6.97.17.1
Red Bulls70.171.371.9
6.16.36.3
Earthquakes70.569.868.3
5.65.55.4
NYCFC60.562.062.6
4.85.05.1
4.14.14.3
Whitecaps62.361.659.8
4.54.44.3
Toronto FC57.759.259.8
4.64.84.8
5.35.35.4
DC United68.456.551.1
5.94.43.9
2.41.10.7
2.65.67.7
Orlando55.557.057.6
4.34.54.6
5.65.65.8
Crew52.553.954.6
4.14.34.3
7.07.17.3
Revolution46.548.048.7
3.43.53.6
8.18.18.3
Sounders29.534.245.8
1.62.03.0
0.50.81.8
11.78.84.6
Timbers37.036.434.8
2.22.12.1
7.27.27.3
Fire34.135.436.0
2.32.42.5
15.915.916.3
Sporting KC36.035.333.7
2.12.01.9
7.17.07.2
Dynamo23.222.821.6
15.515.515.7
NYCFC vs Real Salt LakeHomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Rapids95.094.894.5
10.310.310.1
31.331.229.7
Union79.480.480.9
7.67.77.8
5.45.45.0
Real Salt Lake72.076.384.9
5.96.57.9
6.58.414.0
1.10.70.2
Galaxy76.976.575.6
6.76.66.4
9.19.18.6
Impact75.176.376.8
6.97.17.1
4.14.13.8
Red Bulls70.171.372.0
6.16.36.4
2.82.82.6
Earthquakes70.369.768.7
5.65.55.3
5.95.85.5
NYCFC71.459.353.8
6.24.64.0
2.81.20.8
2.14.46.1
Whitecaps62.161.460.2
4.54.44.2
3.43.43.2
Toronto FC57.759.259.8
4.64.84.8
5.45.35.2
DC United57.759.159.8
4.64.84.9
1.51.51.4
5.45.35.2
Orlando55.557.057.6
4.34.54.6
1.41.41.3
5.85.75.6
Crew52.553.954.6
4.14.34.3
1.21.21.1
7.27.17.0
Revolution46.548.048.7
3.43.53.6
8.38.28.1
Sounders37.536.935.7
2.32.32.1
8.58.38.2
Timbers36.936.335.0
2.22.12.0
7.47.27.1
Fire34.135.436.0
2.32.42.5
16.316.015.8
Sporting KC35.835.234.0
2.12.01.9
7.27.17.0
Dynamo23.122.721.7
1.21.21.1
15.815.615.4
Timbers vs EarthquakesHomeDrawAway
10:30 PM Wed100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Rapids94.694.994.7
10.310.310.2
31.031.030.1
Earthquakes61.168.179.0
4.55.26.7
3.64.78.6
2.01.30.5
Whitecaps60.861.961.1
4.44.54.3
3.43.43.3
1.71.61.6
Timbers46.633.527.4
3.01.91.4
1.70.70.4
3.97.810.2
Galaxy vs Sporting KCHomeDrawAway
10:30 PM Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Rapids94.894.994.6
10.210.310.3
29.731.131.3
FC Dallas90.290.489.9
8.99.09.0
17.618.518.7
Galaxy84.475.269.1
7.86.35.5
12.87.66.0
0.30.81.3
Earthquakes69.770.169.0
5.45.65.5
5.55.85.9
Whitecaps61.361.860.6
4.34.54.4
3.23.43.5
1.61.61.7
Sounders36.737.336.3
2.22.32.3
8.18.38.6
Timbers36.136.635.6
7.17.27.4
Sporting KC26.332.445.5
1.31.82.8
0.30.51.3
10.07.63.8
Union vs CrewHomeDrawAway
Wed100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Rapids30.131.031.0
Union87.679.173.7
8.97.56.6
8.04.33.2
0.51.32.0
NYCFC61.862.261.2
4.95.05.0
4.14.14.3
Toronto FC59.059.358.4
4.74.84.7
5.25.35.5
Orlando56.857.156.2
4.44.54.5
5.65.65.8
Crew45.251.363.9
3.33.95.4
0.60.92.0
9.97.64.0
Revolution47.948.247.2
3.53.63.5
8.18.18.3
FC Dallas vs DynamoHomeDrawAway
9:00 PM Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win MLS Cup100.0*Supporters Shield100.0*Wooden Spoon
Rapids94.894.894.6
10.210.310.3
28.831.332.1
FC Dallas94.789.686.0
10.08.88.1
24.916.213.2
0.00.10.2
Real Salt Lake78.178.277.4
6.76.96.8
9.110.010.2
0.60.70.7
Galaxy76.676.675.8
6.56.66.6
8.29.19.4
0.80.80.9
Earthquakes69.869.969.0
5.45.65.5
5.25.96.1
1.21.21.3
Whitecaps61.561.760.6
4.34.44.4
3.03.53.6
1.51.61.8
Crew1.11.21.3
6.77.07.6
Revolution0.60.70.8
7.78.18.8
Timbers36.236.535.5
0.81.01.0
6.97.17.7
Fire15.215.917.0
Dynamo16.320.230.5
0.81.01.8
0.10.30.7
20.516.79.9

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Thank you bgix for adding this league.