UEFA Nations League Playoff Chances 2018-2019 50/50

															100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Chance will make playoffs												Promotion			Chance will finish regular season at seed																		Demotion
	P	G	W	-	D	-	L	GD	%	Change		%	Change		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Avg.	Change	%	Change		RPI

Georgia	16		5	-	1	-	0	10	In			Yes			100																1.0	+0.75	No			29	Georgia
Serbia	14		4	-	2	-	0	7	In		+23.4	Yes		+23.4	100																1.0	+2.14	No			1	Serbia
Bosnia and Herz	10	2	3	-	1	-	0	4	In			Yes			100																1.0	+0.75	No			4	Bosnia and Herzegovina
Switzerland	9	2	3	-	0	-	1	9	In		+62.5	Yes		+62.5	100																1.0	+3.22	No			10	Switzerland
Macedonia	15		5	-	0	-	1	9	In		+14.1	Yes		+14.1		100															2.0	+0.76	No			7	Macedonia
Scotland	9	2	3	-	0	-	1	6	In		+37.5	Yes		+37.5		100															2.0	+2.55	No			10	Scotland
Ukraine	9	2	3	-	0	-	1	0	In			Yes				100															2.0	+0.75	No			10	Ukraine
Portugal	8	2	2	-	2	-	0	2	In			Yes				100															2.0	+0.49	No			4	Portugal
Kosovo	14		4	-	2	-	0	13	In		+37.5	Yes		+37.5			100														3.0	+0.73	No			8	Kosovo
Norway	13		4	-	1	-	1	5	In		+44.8	Yes		+44.8			100														3.0	+1.55	No			14	Norway
Denmark	8	2	2	-	2	-	0	3	In			Yes					100														3.0	-0.18	No			18	Denmark
Netherlands	7	2	2	-	1	-	1	4	In		+37.5	Yes		+37.5			100														3.0	+1.06	No			23	Netherlands
Belarus	14		4	-	2	-	0	10	In		+31.9	Yes		+31.9				100													4.0	-0.33	No			2	Belarus
Finland	12		4	-	0	-	2	2	In		+13.2	Yes		+13.2				100													4.0	-1.49	No			19	Finland
England	7	2	2	-	1	-	1	1	In		+62.5	Yes		+62.5				100													4.0	+2.56	No			26	England
Sweden	7	2	2	-	1	-	1	2	In		+67.2	Yes		+67.2				100													4.0	+2.18	No			26	Sweden
Romania	12		3	-	3	-	0	5	Out		-23.4	No		-23.4					100												5.0	+1.46	No			3	Romania
Luxembourg	10		3	-	1	-	2	7	Out		-23.0	No		-23.0					100												5.0	+1.34	No			6	Luxembourg
Belgium	9	2	3	-	0	-	1	3	Out		-62.5	No		-62.5					100												5.0	-2.44	No			10	Belgium
Russia	7	2	2	-	1	-	1	1	Out		-67.2	No		-67.2					100												5.0	-1.75	No			16	Russia
Bulgaria	11		3	-	2	-	1	2	Out		-44.8	No		-44.8						100											6.0	-1.19	No			22	Bulgaria
Armenia	10		3	-	1	-	2	6	Out		-14.1	No		-14.1						100											6.0	+0.03	No			28	Armenia
Austria	7	2	2	-	1	-	1	1	Out			No								100											6.0	+0.63	No			16	Austria
France	7	2	2	-	1	-	1	0	Out		-37.5	No		-37.5						100											6.0	-1.25	No			23	France
Hungary	10		3	-	1	-	2	3	Out			No									100										7.0	+2.05	No			25	Hungary
Azerbaijan	9		2	-	3	-	1	1	Out		-37.5	No		-37.5							100										7.0	-1.40	No			20	Azerbaijan
Spain	6	2	2	-	0	-	2	5	Out		-25.0	No		-25.0							100										7.0	-1.29	No			30	Spain
Wales	6	2	2	-	0	-	2	1	Out			No									100										7.0	-0.55	No			55	Wales
Czech Republic	6	2	2	-	0	-	2	0	Out			No										100									8.0	+0.46	No			30	Czech Republic
Israel	6	2	2	-	0	-	2	1	Out		-37.5	No		-37.5								100									8.0	-2.86	No			30	Israel
Kazakhstan	6		1	-	3	-	2	1	Out			No										100									8.0	+0.38	No			51	Kazakhstan
Italy	5	2	1	-	2	-	1	0	Out			No										100									8.0		No			21	Italy
Greece	9		3	-	0	-	3	-1	Out		-13.2	No		-13.2									100								9.0	-2.30	No			33	Greece
Moldova	9		2	-	3	-	1	-1	Out		-8.9	No		-8.9									100								9.0	-1.24	No			9	Moldova
Croatia	4	2	1	-	1	-	2	-6	Out		-37.5	No		-37.5									100								9.0	-1.80	No			35	Croatia
Slovakia	3	2	1	-	0	-	3	0	Out			No											100								9.0	-1.19	No			39	Slovakia
Montenegro	7		2	-	1	-	3	1	Out			No												100							10.0	-1.50	No			15	Montenegro
Gibraltar	6		2	-	0	-	4	-10	Out			No												100							10.0	+0.40	No			37	Gibraltar
Turkey	3	2	1	-	0	-	3	-3	Out			No												100							10.0	+0.24	No			36	Turkey
Poland	2	2	0	-	2	-	2	-2	Out			No												100							10.0	+0.14	No			44	Poland
Cyprus	5		1	-	2	-	3	-4	Out			No													100						11.0	-0.12	No			42	Cyprus
Faroe Islands	5		1	-	2	-	3	-5	Out			No													100						11.0	+1.01	No			50	Faroe Islands
Germany	2	2	0	-	2	-	2	-4	Out			No													100						11.0	-0.69	No			44	Germany
Republic of Ire	2	2	0	-	2	-	2	-4	Out			No													100						11.0	-0.39	No			52	Republic of Ireland
Latvia	4		0	-	4	-	2	-4	Out			No														100					12.0	+0.23	No		-3.9	53	Latvia
Albania	3	2	1	-	0	-	3	-7	Out			No														100					12.0		No			39	Albania
Iceland	0	2	0	-	0	-	4	-12	Out			No														100					12.0		No			44	Iceland
Northern Ireland	0	2	0	-	0	-	4	-5	Out			No														100					12.0	-0.95	No			44	Northern Ireland
Estonia	4		1	-	1	-	4	-4	Out			No															100				13.0	+0.97	No			38	Estonia
Liechtenstein	4		1	-	1	-	4	-5	Out			No															100				13.0	+0.17	No		-3.6	41	Liechtenstein
Andorra	4		0	-	4	-	2	-7	Out			No																100			14.0	-1.16	No		-6.0	54	Andorra
Slovenia	3		0	-	3	-	3	-3	Out			No																100			14.0	-0.80	No			49	Slovenia
Malta	3		0	-	3	-	3	-9	Out			No																	100		15.0	-1.22	No		-15.8	43	Malta
Lithuania	0		0	-	0	-	6	-13	Out			No																	100		15.0	-0.46	No			34	Lithuania
San Marino	0		0	-	0	-	6	-16	Out			No																		100	16.0	-0.47	Yes		+29.3	48	San Marino

Week of 11/15
England 2 Croatia 1
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
England	In		Yes				+3.5
Spain	Out		No				-0.6
Croatia	Out		No				-2.6

Switzerland 5 Belgium 2
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Switzerland	In		Yes				+2.7
Belgium	Out		No				-2.4

Sweden 2 Russia 0
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Bosnia and Herz							+0.4
Ukraine							+0.4
Sweden	+54.7		+54.7				+2.3
Russia	-54.7		-54.7				-1.9
Wales							-0.6

Serbia 2 Montenegro 1
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Serbia	+42.6		+42.6				+2.5
Romania	-8.5		-8.5
Montenegro	Out		No				-2.1

Montenegro 0 Romania 1
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Serbia	-39.1		-39.1				-0.8
Romania	+39.1		+39.1				+2.6
Montenegro							-1.7

Kosovo 4 Azerbaijan 0
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Kosovo	In		Yes				+1.8
Azerbaijan	Out		No				-1.6

Scotland 3 Israel 2
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Scotland	In		Yes				+2.8
Israel	Out		No				-2.7

Germany 2 Netherlands 2
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Netherlands	In		Yes				+1.1
France	Out		No				-0.9
Germany							-0.3

Moldova 1 Luxembourg 1
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Belarus	In		Yes				+0.5
Luxembourg	Out		No				+0.6
Moldova	Out		No				-1.4

San Marino 0 Belarus 2
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Belarus	In		Yes				+1.7
Luxembourg	Out		No				-0.4
Moldova	Out		No
Latvia					No
Liechtenstein					No
Andorra					No
Malta					No		+0.2
San Marino					Yes		-0.5

Cyprus 0 Norway 2
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Norway	+28.8		+28.8				+1.6
Bulgaria	-28.8		-28.8				-0.7
Cyprus							-0.9

Serbia 4 Lithuania 1
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Serbia	In		Yes				+1.8
Romania	Out		No				-0.5
Lithuania							-0.5

Turkey 0 Sweden 1
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Sweden	+23.0		+23.0				+2.5
Russia	-23.0		-23.0				-0.4
Turkey							-2.2

Albania 0 Scotland 4
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Scotland	+22.9		+22.9				+2.7
Israel	-16.1		-16.1				-0.2
Albania	Out		No				-2.2

Italy 0 Portugal 0
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Portugal	In		Yes				+0.7
Italy	Out		No				-1.2

Azerbaijan 2 Faroe Islands 0
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Kosovo	-17.0		-17.0				-0.3
Azerbaijan	+22.3		+22.3				+2.2
Faroe Islands	Out		No				-1.9

Hungary 2 Finland 0
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Finland	-21.9		-21.9				-1.4
Hungary							+1.7
Greece	+21.9		+21.9				-0.2

Malta 0 Kosovo 5
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Kosovo	+21.7		+21.7				+1.6
Azerbaijan	-16.4		-16.4				-0.3
Faroe Islands	Out		No
Malta					+8.6		-1.4
San Marino					-3.9

Romania 3 Lithuania 0
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Serbia	-11.8		-11.8				-0.5
Romania	+17.4		+17.4				+1.9
Montenegro	-5.6		-5.6				-0.4
Lithuania							-0.6

Liechtenstein 2 Armenia 2
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Macedonia	In		Yes				+0.2
Armenia	Out		No				-0.3
Liechtenstein					No		+0.2

Macedonia 4 Gibraltar 0
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Macedonia	In		Yes				+1.4
Armenia	Out		No
Gibraltar							-1.4

Greece 0 Estonia 1
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Finland	In		Yes				+0.3
Greece	Out		No				-1.6
Estonia							+0.6

Bulgaria 1 Slovenia 1
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Norway	+7.3		+7.3
Bulgaria	-7.3		-7.3
Slovenia							-0.3

Andorra 0 Latvia 0
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Latvia					No		+0.2
Andorra					No		-0.9
San Marino					+6.6		-0.2

Malta 1 Faroe Islands 1
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Faroe Islands							+0.3
Latvia					+1.5
Liechtenstein					+1.7
Andorra					+3.2
Malta					-8.8		-0.7
San Marino					+2.5

Andorra 1 Georgia 1
Thu	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Andorra					-1.1		-0.5
San Marino					*+0.2

Czech Republic 1 Slovakia 0
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Wales							-0.2
Czech Republic							+2.6
Slovakia							-2.4

Northern Ireland 1 Austria 2
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Austria							+1.6
Wales							-0.6
Turkey							+0.4
Northern Ireland							-1.0

Denmark 0 Republic of Ire 0
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Bosnia and Herz							+0.4
Ukraine							+0.4
Denmark							-0.7
Turkey							+0.4
Republic of Ire							-0.8

Georgia 2 Kazakhstan 1
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Georgia							+0.8
Kazakhstan							-1.3

Portugal 1 Poland 1
Sun	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Promotion	100.0*	Demotion	100.0*	Average seed
Poland							-0.2

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

UEFA Nations League Playoff Chances 2018-2019 50/50

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