Points
Chance Will Win Championship

Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
Chance will win titleUEFA CLChance will finish season at seedRelegated
SundayPGW-D-LGD%Change%Change123456789101112131415161718Avg.Change%ChangeRPIWednesday
PSVWHeracles 2-14916-1-22967.3%+4.091.1%+4.567247200000001.4+0.12No1PSV Eindhoven
AjaxWFeyenoord 2-04414-2-33924.7+1.568.6+9.72544198310000000002.3+0.29No-0.02Ajax Amsterdam
AZ3912-3-4155.2-2.523.0-4.751832221263100000000003.6-0.030.0%4AZ Alkmaar
Zwolle3610-6-361.8-1.110.2-2.628202519127421000000004.6+0.030.03PEC Zwolle
FeyenoordLAjax 0-23219-5-4190.7-1.74.4-6.0141219211611743210000005.5-0.470.0+0.05at UtrechtFeyenoord Rotterdam
Utrecht2918-5-5-10.2-0.11.7-0.5015111618151186432100006.8+0.130.2+0.07FeyenoordFC Utrecht
Vitesse287-7-590.0-0.00.5-0.2002610141614119653211008.0+0.160.6+0.06Vitesse Arnhem
ADO278-3-8-30.0-0.00.3-0.1001481214141210864321008.5+0.171.0+0.08ADO Den Haag
GroningenTWillem II 1-1236-5-810.0-0.00.0-0.10001358101111111198642110.7-0.045.7+0.312FC Groningen
VVV235-8-6-40.0-0.00.0-0.0000125791112121198642110.7+0.165.5+0.110VVV Venlo
Heerenveen236-5-8-60.0-0.00.0-0.00001257101112121198642110.7+0.165.7+0.19SC Heerenveen
HeraclesLPSV 1-2226-4-9-120.0-0.00.0-0.10001246810111211119753111.3-0.618.1+2.711Heracles Almelo
ExcelsiorLSparta 0-2216-3-10-80.0-0.00.0-0.00000134681011121211974211.9-0.6310.6+3.413Excelsior Rotterdam
Willem IITGroningen 1-1174-5-10-130.0-0.00.0-0.00000011235791113141412914.0-0.1430.1+2.314Willem II Tilburg
Twente164-4-11-90.00.0-0.00000001124579121416161214.6+0.0537.1+0.516FC Twente Enschede
NAC164-4-11-160.00.0-0.00000001234579111415161314.6+0.0538.0+0.415NAC Breda
SpartaWExcelsior 2-0143-5-11-23No-0.00.0-0.000000011235791316202315.5+0.6051.6-10.518Sparta Rotterdam
Roda123-3-13-23No0.000000001123471014223716.3-0.0265.7+0.617Roda JC Kerkrade

Monte Carlo simulation: Does not prove mathematical Clinching or Elimination
Tie Breakers:
1. Wins
2. Goal Differential
3. Goals Scored.
Direct Comments/Corrections to Joshuabrianlane@gmail.com

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 1/19
Heracles 1 PSV 2
10:45 AM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
PSV+8.7
+5.2
+0.2
Ajax-5.0
-1.5
AZ-2.0
-1.6
Zwolle-0.8
-1.0
Feyenoord-0.7
-0.7
Utrecht-0.2
Heracles+2.5
-0.7
Willem II-0.4
Twente-0.4
NAC-0.4
Sparta-0.3
Roda-0.4
Ajax 2 Feyenoord 0
8:30 AM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
PSV-4.8
-0.8
Ajax+7.5
+11.2
+0.4
AZ-0.9
-2.8
Zwolle-0.4
-1.6
Feyenoord-1.4
-5.4
-0.5
Utrecht-0.3
Utrecht 1 AZ 1
2:00 PM Fri100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
PSV+0.8
+0.7
Ajax+0.4
+1.4
AZ-1.2
-2.1
-0.0
Zwolle+0.3
Feyenoord+0.3
Utrecht-0.2
-0.7
-0.2
Zwolle 1 NAC 0
1:45 PM Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
PSV-0.6
-0.8
Ajax-0.3
-1.5
AZ-0.2
-1.0
Zwolle+1.1
+4.1
+0.6
Feyenoord-0.5
Groningen-0.4
VVV-0.4
Heerenveen-0.4
Heracles-0.4
Excelsior-0.5
Willem II-1.2
Twente-1.4
NACNo
+7.5
-0.6
Sparta-1.2
Roda-1.3
Roda 1 Twente 1
12:30 PM Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Groningen-0.3
VVV-0.2
Heerenveen-0.2
Heracles-0.2
Excelsior-0.3
Willem II-0.8
TwenteNo
+1.2
-0.1
NAC-0.7
Sparta-0.8
RodaNo
+2.4
-0.1
Vitesse 1 Heerenveen 1
2:45 PM Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Vitesse-0.3
-0.1
Heerenveen+0.3
-0.2
ADO 1 VVV 1
1:45 PM Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
ADO-0.2
-0.1
VVV+0.3
-0.2
Twente*-0.2
Willem II 1 Groningen 1
8:30 AM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Groningen+0.1
-0.2
Willem IINo
+1.5
-0.2
Twente-0.2
NAC-0.3
Sparta-0.3
Roda-0.3
Sparta 2 Excelsior 0
6:30 AM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Groningen+0.3
VVV+0.3
Heerenveen+0.3
Heracles+0.3
Excelsior+3.9
-0.8
Willem II+1.0
Twente+1.3
NAC+1.0
Sparta-9.9
+0.6
Roda+1.3
Utrecht vs FeyenoordIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
8:30 AM Wed100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Feyenoord0.30.51.2
2.43.66.9
6.15.64.9
Utrecht0.40.10.1
2.81.30.7
0.10.20.4
6.17.07.5
Week of 1/26
Twente vs PSVIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
1:45 PM Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
PSV60.165.775.6
87.690.795.0
1.61.51.3
Ajax29.725.918.9
69.568.767.5
2.22.22.3
Willem II31.629.728.7
14.114.014.0
Twente27.639.145.5
13.914.715.2
NAC39.637.736.6
14.714.614.5
Sparta53.351.150.1
15.615.515.4
Utrecht vs AjaxHomeDrawAway
6:30 AM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
PSV72.369.161.3
91.991.490.2
1.41.41.5
Ajax18.522.732.1
60.467.177.7
2.52.32.0
AZ5.85.44.4
26.223.919.2
Zwolle2.11.91.5
11.810.78.2
Utrecht0.40.10.0
3.11.20.5
0.10.20.4
6.27.07.4
Willem II vs AZHomeDrawAway
10:45 AM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
PSV68.667.965.7
92.591.689.5
Ajax25.425.023.8
71.969.764.5
2.22.22.3
AZ3.14.37.8
16.720.830.6
0.0NoNo
3.93.73.2
Willem II0.0NoNo
21.331.937.7
13.314.214.7
Sparta53.151.350.2
15.615.515.4
Zwolle vs VitesseHomeDrawAway
1:45 PM Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Ajax24.324.824.9
66.669.370.1
Zwolle3.01.40.9
14.88.86.4
No0.00.0
4.04.65.0
Vitesse0.20.41.0
1.1*0.60.2
8.68.17.2
Feyenoord vs ADOHomeDrawAway
8:30 AM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Feyenoord1.20.50.3
6.93.62.5
4.95.66.1
ADO0.10.20.6
1.7*1.00.4
9.38.77.7
Groningen vs HeraclesHomeDrawAway
12:30 PM Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Groningen2.65.98.7
9.810.911.6
HeraclesNo0.00.0
11.98.44.1
12.211.510.4
NAC vs VVVHomeDrawAway
2:45 PM Sat100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
VVV8.8*5.52.3
11.510.99.8
NAC0.0No0.0
27.840.146.9
13.814.815.3
Heerenveen vs SpartaHomeDrawAway
2:00 PM Fri100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Heerenveen2.4*5.79.0
9.910.911.5
SpartaNoNo0.0
60.854.040.8
16.015.614.8
Roda vs ExcelsiorHomeDrawAway
8:30 AM Sun100.0*Chance wins title100.0*UEFA CL100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Excelsior15.910.75.2
12.612.011.0
Roda55.568.474.3
15.716.416.7

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Thank you Josh Lane for adding this league.