Tampa Bay Rays Playoff Chances 2012-3WC

Lost to White Sox 3-4, playoff odds down 4.7 to 63.8%

29-22 .569

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Tampa Bay 3 White Sox 4	-3.3		-0.2
Cleveland 3 Kansas City 6	+0.2
Texas 8 Seattle 21	-0.2
Toronto 4 Baltimore 1	*-0.1

If winner is:HomeAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Tampa Bay vs Baltimore	+3.1-4.1		+0.2-0.3
Angels vs Texas	-0.4+0.4
Cleveland vs Minnesota	-0.2+0.4
White Sox vs Seattle	+0.2-0.2
Detroit vs Yankees	+0.1-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

107	-140				In		100																209	*
106		77	-	34	In		98	2															43
105		76	-	35	In		94	6															90
104		75	-	36	In		95	5															175
103		74	-	37	In		95	5															327
102		73	-	38	In		93	7	0														686
101		72	-	39	In		84	16	0	0													1,401
100		71	-	40	In		80	19	0	0													2,503
99		70	-	41	In		73	26	1	0													4,193
98		69	-	42	In		64	34	2	1													7,121
97		68	-	43	In		55	41	3	1													11,271
96		67	-	44	In		46	46	5	3	0												17,445
95		66	-	45	In		35	52	8	5	0												25,573
94		65	-	46	In		26	54	12	8	0	0											36,709
93		64	-	47	In		17	52	17	13	0												50,555
92		63	-	48	In		11	46	22	20	1	0											66,734
91		62	-	49	100.0	%	6	38	27	27	3	0	0										84,717
90		61	-	50	100.0		3	27	28	35	6	0	0										104,272
89		60	-	51	100.0		1	17	27	41	13	1	0										124,317
88		59	-	52	99.8		0	9	23	42	22	3	0	0									140,982
87		58	-	53	99.0		0	4	17	37	32	9	1	0	0								155,454
86		57	-	54	96.2		0	1	10	27	39	19	4	0	0								164,367
85		56	-	55	88.5		0	0	5	16	37	30	10	1	0	0							168,060
84		55	-	56	73.2			0	2	7	27	37	21	5	1	0							165,638
83		54	-	57	51.3			0	1	2	15	34	32	14	3	0	0						157,177
82		53	-	58	28.9				0	0	6	22	36	26	9	1	0	0					144,309
81		52	-	59	12.3				0	0	2	11	29	35	19	5	0	0					127,763
80		51	-	60	3.9				0	0	0	4	17	33	31	13	2	0	0				107,728
79		50	-	61	1.0						0	1	7	24	36	25	7	1	0				88,456
78		49	-	62	0.2						0	0	2	13	32	35	16	3	0				70,768
77		48	-	63	0.0						0	0	0	5	21	38	28	7	0				53,579
76		47	-	64	0.0							0	0	1	11	32	37	16	2	0			39,204
75		46	-	65	0.0							0	0	0	4	22	41	27	5	0			27,865
74		45	-	66	Out									0	2	12	37	39	10	0			19,223
73		44	-	67	Out									0	0	6	28	46	19	1			12,223
72		43	-	68	Out										0	2	18	48	30	2			7,837
71		42	-	69	Out										0	1	11	44	40	4			4,748
70		41	-	70	Out											0	6	36	51	7			2,812
69		40	-	71	Out											0	3	25	59	13			1,546
68		39	-	72	Out												1	19	58	22			872
67		38	-	73	Out												0	14	55	31			434
66		37	-	74	Out												1	8	52	39			251
65		36	-	75	Out													1	44	55			105
64		35	-	76	Out													4	41	55			49
63		34	-	77	Out													10	29	62			21
62		33	-	78	Out															100			3
61		32	-	79	Out														100				4
29	-60				Out															100			181	*

Total:					63.8	%	3	10	9	15	14	12	10	8	7	5	3	2	1	0			2,200,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	None

Friday	None

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 12 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

					100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

29	-140

Total: