Baltimore Orioles Playoff Chances 2012-3WC

Lost to Toronto 1-4, playoff odds down 6.2 to 63.2%

29-22 .569

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Toronto 4 Baltimore 1	-2.8		-0.2
Cleveland 3 Kansas City 6	+0.3
Tampa Bay 3 White Sox 4	+0.3
Texas 8 Seattle 21	-0.2
Boston 6 Detroit 4	*-0.1

If winner is:HomeAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Tampa Bay vs Baltimore	-3.1+4.2		-0.2+0.3
Angels vs Texas	-0.4+0.4
Cleveland vs Minnesota	-0.3+0.4
White Sox vs Seattle	+0.1-0.2
Detroit vs Yankees	+0.1-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Baltimore finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

108	-140				In		100																191	*
107		78	-	33	In		97	3															29
106		77	-	34	In		98	3															40
105		76	-	35	In		97	3															92
104		75	-	36	In		91	9															191
103		74	-	37	In		91	9															400
102		73	-	38	In		87	13															785
101		72	-	39	In		81	19	0	0													1,444
100		71	-	40	In		75	24	0	0													2,561
99		70	-	41	In		69	31	1	0													4,370
98		69	-	42	In		59	39	1	1													7,461
97		68	-	43	In		49	47	2	1	0												11,637
96		67	-	44	In		41	53	4	3													18,017
95		66	-	45	In		31	57	7	5	0												26,489
94		65	-	46	In		22	59	11	8	0	0											37,589
93		64	-	47	In		15	56	16	13	0	0											51,468
92		63	-	48	100.0	%	9	50	20	19	1	0	0										67,626
91		62	-	49	100.0		5	41	24	27	3	0	0										85,958
90		61	-	50	100.0		2	30	26	34	7	0	0										105,497
89		60	-	51	100.0		1	19	25	40	13	1	0										124,945
88		59	-	52	99.7		0	10	22	40	23	4	0	0									142,279
87		58	-	53	98.8		0	5	16	35	33	10	1	0	0								156,020
86		57	-	54	95.4		0	2	10	25	39	20	4	0	0								164,638
85		56	-	55	87.0		0	0	5	14	36	32	11	2	0	0	0						168,360
84		55	-	56	70.8			0	2	6	25	37	22	6	1	0	0						165,393
83		54	-	57	47.7			0	1	2	13	32	33	15	3	0	0						156,467
82		53	-	58	25.3				0	0	5	20	35	28	10	2	0	0					143,200
81		52	-	59	10.3				0	0	1	9	27	35	22	6	1	0					126,161
80		51	-	60	3.1				0	0	0	3	15	32	32	15	3	0	0				106,685
79		50	-	61	0.7						0	1	6	21	36	27	8	1	0				87,455
78		49	-	62	0.1						0	0	2	11	30	36	18	3	0				69,448
77		48	-	63	0.0							0	0	4	19	37	30	8	0	0			52,624
76		47	-	64	0.0							0	0	1	10	31	39	17	2	0			38,578
75		46	-	65	Out								0	0	4	20	41	30	5	0			26,858
74		45	-	66	Out									0	1	11	36	41	11	0			18,701
73		44	-	67	Out									0	0	5	27	48	19	1			12,136
72		43	-	68	Out										0	2	18	48	30	2			7,586
71		42	-	69	Out											1	10	44	40	5			4,569
70		41	-	70	Out											0	5	37	50	8			2,675
69		40	-	71	Out											0	3	27	56	14			1,548
68		39	-	72	Out												1	16	65	17			817
67		38	-	73	Out												0	11	60	28			445
66		37	-	74	Out													8	56	36			185
65		36	-	75	Out													4	41	56			111
64		35	-	76	Out														52	48			50
63		34	-	77	Out														26	74			23
62		33	-	78	Out														38	62			13
61		32	-	79	Out															100			3
60		31	-	80	Out														50	50			2
29		0	-	111	Out															100			180

Total:					63.2	%	3	11	9	15	14	12	10	8	7	5	4	2	1	0			2,200,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	None

Friday	None

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 12 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

					100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

29	-140

Total: