Tampa Bay Rays Playoff Chances 2012-3WC 50/50

Lost to White Sox 3-4, playoff odds down 3.3 to 63.9%

29-22 .569

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Tampa Bay 3 White Sox 4	-3.4		-0.3
Minnesota 4 Oakland 0	+0.1

If winner is:HomeAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Tampa Bay vs Baltimore	+3.5-3.5		+0.3-0.3
Cleveland vs Minnesota	-0.2+0.2

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

102	-140				In		100																1,455	*
101		72	-	39	In		100	0															1,244
100		71	-	40	In		99	1		0													2,133
99		70	-	41	In		99	1		0													3,688
98		69	-	42	In		98	1		0													6,382
97		68	-	43	In		96	3	0	1													10,170
96		67	-	44	In		94	4	0	1	0												15,400
95		66	-	45	In		90	7	0	3	0												22,970
94		65	-	46	In		84	11	0	5	0												32,967
93		64	-	47	In		76	15	1	8	0	0											45,591
92		63	-	48	In		65	21	1	13	0	0											60,502
91		62	-	49	In		52	26	3	19	1	0											77,926
90		61	-	50	100.0	%	37	29	5	27	3	0	0										97,360
89		60	-	51	100.0		23	29	7	34	6	0	0										115,648
88		59	-	52	100.0		12	25	10	40	12	1	0										133,507
87		58	-	53	99.8		5	18	12	41	22	3	0	0									148,454
86		57	-	54	98.9		1	10	11	35	32	9	1	0	0								159,311
85		56	-	55	95.3		0	4	9	24	38	20	4	0	0								164,701
84		55	-	56	84.4		0	1	5	12	34	32	13	2	0	0							165,472
83		54	-	57	63.2		0	0	3	4	21	35	26	9	1	0	0						160,024
82		53	-	58	35.6			0	1	1	8	26	35	22	7	1	0	0					148,715
81		52	-	59	13.7			0	0	0	2	11	28	33	19	5	1	0					133,483
80		51	-	60	3.5				0	0	0	3	14	31	32	16	4	0	0				115,098
79		50	-	61	0.6				0		0	1	5	17	32	30	13	2	0	0			97,391
78		49	-	62	0.1				0		0	0	1	7	22	34	26	9	1	0			78,154
77		48	-	63	0.0						0	0	0	2	10	27	35	21	5	0			61,256
76		47	-	64	0.0							0	0	0	3	15	33	33	13	1			45,157
75		46	-	65	Out								0	0	1	6	24	38	25	5			33,033
74		45	-	66	Out									0	0	2	13	35	37	12			22,962
73		44	-	67	Out										0	1	6	27	45	21			15,356
72		43	-	68	Out									0		0	3	18	46	33			9,862
71		42	-	69	Out											0	1	10	43	46			6,141
70		41	-	70	Out												0	5	37	58			3,693
69		40	-	71	Out													2	27	70			2,154
68		39	-	72	Out													1	18	81			1,177
67		38	-	73	Out													0	14	86			682
66		37	-	74	Out														9	91			301
65		36	-	75	Out														8	92			156
64		35	-	76	Out														3	98			80
29	-63				Out															100			244	*

Total:					63.9	%	13	9	4	15	13	10	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	1			2,200,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	None

Friday	None

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 12 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

					100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

29	-140

Total: