Tampa Bay Rays Playoff Chances 2014

Beating Rangers 1-0 (Mid 1st), playoff odds down 0.01 to 1.6%

58-61 .487

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Reds 12 Rays 4	-2.6		-0.2

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Orioles 7 Rays 1	-2.7		-0.3

What If

Chances based on how well the Rays finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

101		43	-	0	In		45	55														300
95	-96				In			100														6	*
94		36	-	7	In			80	7	10	3											30
93		35	-	8	99.3	%		68	6	9	16	1										148
92		34	-	9	95.9			50	11	9	26	4										459
91		33	-	10	92.3			36	14	8	34	8	0									1,577
90		32	-	11	81.8			20	13	5	43	18	1									4,437
89		31	-	12	65.9			9	12	3	42	31	3	0								11,326
88		30	-	13	46.3			3	8	1	34	45	9	0	0							25,741
87		29	-	14	25.9			1	4	0	20	50	22	2	0							51,685
86		28	-	15	11.1			0	2	0	9	42	38	9	1	0						94,979
85		27	-	16	3.3			0	1	0	3	25	45	23	3	0						156,416
84		26	-	17	0.7				0		1	10	38	38	12	1						232,334
83		25	-	18	0.1				0		0	3	21	44	28	4	0					315,835
82		24	-	19	0.0				0		0	0	8	35	43	14	0					387,469
81		23	-	20	Out							0	2	19	47	31	1	0				433,703
80		22	-	21	Out							0	0	7	38	50	4	0	0			441,296
79		21	-	22	Out								0	2	23	63	11	0	0			410,171
78		20	-	23	Out								0	0	10	63	24	2	0			346,052
77		19	-	24	Out									0	3	51	37	7	0			266,923
76		18	-	25	Out									0	1	34	46	17	2	0		186,048
75		17	-	26	Out									0	0	18	45	31	6	0		119,280
74		16	-	27	Out										0	8	35	42	16	0		68,110
73		15	-	28	Out											3	21	46	30	0		35,422
72		14	-	29	Out											1	10	41	47	1		16,808
71		13	-	30	Out											0	4	30	63	3		7,032
70		12	-	31	Out												1	17	73	9	0	2,806
69		11	-	32	Out												0	8	75	17	0	924
68		10	-	33	Out													3	67	28	2	316
67		9	-	34	Out														61	35	4	49
66		8	-	35	Out														50	50		16
64	-65				Out															100		2	*
58		0	-	43	Out															3	97	300

Total:					1.6	%	0	0	0	0	1	4	9	15	22	31	12	4	1	0	0	3,618,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Reds 12 Rays 4	+0.5

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Orioles 7 Rays 1	+0.6

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

				100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance will finish season at seed
TW	W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

101	43	-	0	45	55
96	38	-	5			100
95	37	-	6		40	60
94	36	-	7		13	60	17	7	3
93	35	-	8		5	35	34	19	6					1
92	34	-	9		2	16	34	28	13	2	0			4
91	33	-	10		1	4	19	35	23	9	1	0		8	0
90	32	-	11		0	1	7	21	29	19	5	0		18	1
89	31	-	12			0	1	8	19	23	12	3	0	31	3	0
88	30	-	13			0	0	2	7	15	15	6	1	43	10	0	0
87	29	-	14				0	0	1	5	10	7	2	48	23	3	0
86	28	-	15					0	0	1	3	4	3	38	39	11	1	0	0
85	27	-	16					0	0	0	0	1	2	19	41	27	8	1	0	0
84	26	-	17							0	0	0	1	6	25	35	23	8	2	0	0	0
83	25	-	18								0	0	0	1	8	23	31	24	11	3	0	0	0
82	24	-	19										0	0	1	7	19	29	26	13	4	1	0	0	0
81	23	-	20											0	0	1	5	16	28	28	16	5	1	0	0
80	22	-	21												0	0	1	4	14	27	29	18	6	1	0	0
79	21	-	22												0	0	0	1	4	14	28	31	18	5	1	0
78	20	-	23														0	0	0	3	14	30	32	16	4	0	0
77	19	-	24															0	0	0	4	17	33	31	13	2	0	0
76	18	-	25																	0	1	6	20	35	28	9	1	0	0
75	17	-	26																	0	0	1	8	25	36	23	6	1	0
74	16	-	27																		0	0	2	12	31	35	17	3	0	0
73	15	-	28																			0	0	3	17	36	31	10	2	0
72	14	-	29																				0	1	6	24	39	23	6	1	0
71	13	-	30																					0	2	12	32	35	17	3	0
70	12	-	31																						0	3	20	36	28	11	1
69	11	-	32																							1	7	28	39	20	4	1
68	10	-	33																								2	15	35	32	13	3	0
67	9	-	34																									8	20	41	20	10
66	8	-	35																									6	19	31	25	19
65	7	-	36																													100
64	6	-	37																												100
58	0	-	43																													4	96

Total:				0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	6	7	7	8	9	10	11	11	10	7	5	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0