Tampa Bay Rays Playoff Chances 2015-3

Beat Royals 3-2, playoff odds up 0.1 to 1.9%

64-66 .492

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Orioles 4 Rays 0	-2.8		-0.2
Royals 1 Tigers 2	-0.4
Indians 4 Blue Jays 11	-0.3
Rangers 8 Athletics 7	+0.2
Giants 5 Angels 4	+0.2

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Orioles 4 Rays 2	-2.6		-0.2
Royals 4 Tigers 6	-0.3
Rangers 1 Athletics 7	-0.2
Indians 10 Blue Jays 7	+0.2
Giants 5 Angels 0	+0.2
Twins 13 White Sox 3	*-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Rays finish out the regular season. Explain

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW	W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

96	32	-	0	In		11	87	1	1												577,397
95	31	-	1	In			50		50												2
94	30	-	2	In		6	72	3	19												32
93	29	-	3	In		1	60	10	28	0											346
92	28	-	4	In		0	38	13	49	1											3,346
91	27	-	5	100.0	%	0	19	12	64	5	0										24,108
90	26	-	6	99.8		0	7	8	71	14	0										138,805
89	25	-	7	98.6		0	2	3	64	30	1	0									654,817
88	24	-	8	94.3			0	1	46	47	6	0									2,597,758
87	23	-	9	84.2			0	0	26	58	15	1	0								8,748,672
86	22	-	10	67.1			0	0	12	55	29	4	0	0							25,297,685
85	21	-	11	45.4			0	0	4	41	43	11	0	0	0						63,344,994
84	20	-	12	24.8			0	0	1	24	48	25	2	0	0						138,173,991
83	19	-	13	10.3				0	0	10	40	41	9	1	0	0					263,867,045
82	18	-	14	3.0					0	3	24	48	22	4	0	0					442,524,823
81	17	-	15	0.5					0	1	9	39	37	13	1	0	0				653,238,508
80	16	-	16	0.1					0	0	2	21	41	28	7	0	0	0			849,962,148
79	15	-	17	0.0						0	0	7	28	40	22	3	0	0	0		975,232,280
78	14	-	18	0.0						0	0	1	11	34	39	13	1	0	0	0	986,196,753
77	13	-	19	Out							0	0	2	16	41	31	9	1	0	0	877,801,078
76	12	-	20	Out							0	0	0	4	23	39	25	7	1	0	686,025,070
75	11	-	21	Out								0	0	0	7	26	37	23	6	0	469,212,486
74	10	-	22	Out									0	0	1	10	29	37	20	3	279,480,697
73	9	-	23	Out										0	0	2	13	34	38	13	144,138,457
72	8	-	24	Out											0	0	3	19	46	31	63,827,029
71	7	-	25	Out											0	0	0	7	39	54	24,003,199
70	6	-	26	Out												0	0	2	25	73	7,560,749
69	5	-	27	Out													0	0	13	87	1,956,479
68	4	-	28	Out														0	6	94	405,023
67	3	-	29	Out														0	2	98	64,694
66	2	-	30	Out															1	99	7,384
65	1	-	31	Out															0	100	547
64	0	-	32	Out															0	100	577,418

Total:				1.9	%	0	0	0	0	2	6	13	16	18	18	12	8	5	3	1	6,965,643,820

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Orioles 4 Rays 0	+0.5

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Orioles 4 Rays 2	+0.5

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

				100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance will finish season at seed
TW	W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

96	32	-	0	0	3	34	58	4	0	0
95	31	-	1					100
94	30	-	2		3	16	47	34
93	29	-	3			4	43	35	15	3	0
92	28	-	4			1	20	38	28	11	2	0	0
91	27	-	5			0	6	23	34	26	10	2	0	0	0
90	26	-	6			0	1	8	22	33	25	10	1	0	0
89	25	-	7			0	0	1	8	22	34	26	7	1	0	0
88	24	-	8				0	0	1	8	24	39	22	4	1	0	0
87	23	-	9				0	0	0	1	9	33	41	9	6	1	0	0
86	22	-	10					0	0	0	2	16	49	11	15	6	1	0	0
85	21	-	11						0	0	0	5	40	8	23	19	4	0	0	0
84	20	-	12							0	0	1	24	4	21	33	16	2	0	0	0
83	19	-	13								0	0	10	1	11	33	32	10	1	0	0	0
82	18	-	14								0	0	3	0	3	20	39	26	8	1	0	0	0
81	17	-	15									0	1	0	1	6	26	36	23	7	1	0	0	0
80	16	-	16									0	0	0	0	1	9	27	34	22	7	1	0	0	0
79	15	-	17										0	0	0	0	2	10	26	34	21	6	1	0	0	0
78	14	-	18										0		0	0	0	2	10	26	35	21	5	1	0	0	0
77	13	-	19													0	0	0	2	10	28	35	20	5	1	0	0
76	12	-	20														0	0	0	2	10	28	34	19	5	1	0	0
75	11	-	21															0	0	0	2	11	28	34	20	5	0	0	0
74	10	-	22																0	0	0	2	11	29	35	19	3	0	0	0
73	9	-	23																	0	0	0	2	13	33	37	13	1	0	0
72	8	-	24																		0	0	0	3	18	43	32	5	0	0	0
71	7	-	25																		0	0	0	0	5	30	47	16	2	0	0	0
70	6	-	26																				0	0	1	14	44	32	8	1	0	0
69	5	-	27																					0	0	4	27	42	22	5	0	0	0
68	4	-	28																						0	1	10	33	36	16	3	0	0
67	3	-	29																							0	2	16	35	32	13	2	0
66	2	-	30																								0	4	19	36	29	10	1
65	1	-	31																									0	5	26	37	26	6
64	0	-	32																								0	0	1	8	28	42	21

Total:				0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	4	8	10	12	13	14	12	9	6	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0