Cincinnati Reds Playoff Chances 2012-3WC

Lost to Pittsburgh 1-2, playoff odds down 2.4 to 77.9%
28-22   .560

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Pittsburgh 2 Cincinnati 1 -2.5
-0.2
Giants 1 Arizona 4 +0.3
Colorado 13 Houston 5 +0.2
Atlanta 10 St. Louis 7 -0.2
Miami 5 Washington 3 -0.1
If winner is:HomeAway
Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Houston vs Cincinnati-2.5+3.1
-0.2+0.2
Giants vs Cubs-0.3+0.4
San Diego vs Arizona+0.2-0.2
Washington vs Atlanta+0.1-0.2

What If

Chances based on how well the Cincinnati finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
107-140In100537*
10678-34In1000378
10577-35In991787
10476-36In98101,440
10375-37In97302,691
10274-38In95414,595
10173-39In918017,580
10072-40In86110312,321
9971-41In80150418,530
9870-42In722017027,796
9769-43In6226210039,000
9668-44In5032314052,889
9567-45In3936520070,153
9466-46In28389260088,858
9365-47In1836133210108,124
9264-48100.0%10311739300126,710
9163-49100.05242044600143,889
9062-50100.021723461210157,878
8961-5199.8110234320300165,832
8860-5299.0052037298100168,321
8759-5396.302162636173000163,785
8658-5489.301121534279100155,070
8557-5575.00872634195100140,692
8456-5654.304215323013300123,443
8355-5731.602162234248100104,741
8254-5814.510211283319510085,456
8153-594.800041632301430066,841
8052-601.2000172233261020050,744
7951-610.200021026332161037,687
7850-620.00004153031163026,099
7749-63Out01621352791017,573
7648-64Out021128362040011,725
7547-65Out00417353211107,259
7446-66Out018284020304,501
7345-67Out003194031602,698
7244-68Out01833431311,544
7143-69Out042246261834
7042-70Out011446363428
6941-71Out01042408212
6840-72Out4285513100
6739-73Out15592639
6638-74Out12503826
6537-75Out505010
6436-76Out1002
6335-77Out1001
28-62Out100181*
Total:77.9%10121122131075422110002,200,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

WednesdayNone
FridayNone

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 12 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
28-140
Total: