New York Mets Playoff Chances 2012-3WC

Lost to Phillies 6-10, playoff odds down 5.1 to 18.4%
28-23   .549

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Mets 6 Phillies 10 -3.1
-0.3
Atlanta 10 St. Louis 7 -0.3
Giants 1 Arizona 4 +0.3
Colorado 13 Houston 5 +0.2
Pittsburgh 2 Cincinnati 1 +0.2
If winner is:HomeAway
Friday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Mets vs St. Louis+2.5-2.2
+0.3-0.2
Giants vs Cubs-0.2+0.3
San Diego vs Arizona+0.1-0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Mets finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-Lplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
102-139In100202*
10173-38In97333
10072-39In901069
9971-40In89111131
9870-41In781912268
9769-42In6629140562
9668-43In57344501,060
9567-44In44416801,868
9466-45In33431112103,384
9365-46In21441717105,762
9264-47100.0%133822243009,318
9163-48100.0630263081014,234
9062-4999.93192834152021,386
8961-5099.511125332450030,880
8860-5198.1052028331220043,699
8759-5293.7021319372361058,501
8658-5383.10071032331430075,758
8557-5464.7034213626810094,267
8456-5541.901110293519500114,283
8355-5621.500417343012200132,378
8254-578.500172435248100148,142
8153-582.4000212303318400159,992
8052-590.50001519342911200167,833
7951-600.10019263522610168,260
7850-610.00000315323215300162,806
7749-620.00016233626810151,362
7648-63Out0021231351730136,531
7547-64Out001521372870117,991
7446-65Out002123337151098,904
7345-66Out0152441264079,754
7244-67Out0021438378061,149
7143-68Out017314516145,575
7042-69Out003214825232,765
6941-70Out01134536422,690
6840-71Out073945815,002
6739-72Out033052149,685
6638-73Out012155225,899
6537-74Out11553323,419
6436-75Out0952391,916
6335-76Out0544501,072
6234-77Out23959528
6133-78Out13267272
6032-79Out11980120
5931-80Out287258
5830-81Out148629
5729-82Out79315
28-56Out100188*
Total:18.4%0123579101112121196202,200,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

WednesdayNone
FridayNone

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 12 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
28-139
Total: