Tampa Bay Rays Playoff Chances 2014-4

Plays at Orioles, playoff odds down 0.03 to 0.3%

65-68 .489

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Rays 0 Athletics 3	-0.8		-0.2
Pirates 2 Orioles 9	-0.2
Red Sox 4 Blue Jays 7	-0.1
Cubs 6 Yankees 1	+0.1

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Rays 2 Athletics 3	-0.5		-0.2
Cubs 2 Yankees 4	-0.1
Red Sox 4 Blue Jays 6	-0.1
Pirates 9 Orioles 8	+0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Rays finish out the regular season. Explain

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW	W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

94	29	-	0	99.8	%	0	71	16	5	8	0										584
93	28	-	1	In				100													1
92	27	-	2	In			68	16		16											19
91	26	-	3	84.4			13	21	3	48	16										179
90	25	-	4	67.9			6	18	0	44	29	3									1,133
89	24	-	5	47.5			2	12	0	34	41	11	0								5,140
88	23	-	6	26.9			0	6	0	21	47	26	0								17,871
87	22	-	7	11.8			0	2		9	40	45	3	0							52,483
86	21	-	8	3.7			0	1		3	26	59	11	0							128,024
85	20	-	9	0.8				0		1	12	58	26	3	0						263,239
84	19	-	10	0.1				0		0	4	41	43	12	0						461,532
83	18	-	11	0.0				0		0	1	20	47	29	3	0					698,298
82	17	-	12	0.0						0	0	7	34	47	12	0					912,873
81	16	-	13	Out							0	1	16	51	31	0					1,036,494
80	15	-	14	Out							0	0	5	40	55	0					1,025,881
79	14	-	15	Out								0	1	23	75	1	0				885,206
78	13	-	16	Out								0	0	10	86	4	0	0			663,859
77	12	-	17	Out									0	3	87	9	0				434,013
76	11	-	18	Out									0	1	78	20	1	0			247,812
75	10	-	19	Out										0	61	34	4	0			121,979
74	9	-	20	Out										0	39	46	13	1	0		51,368
73	8	-	21	Out											19	47	28	5	0		18,753
72	7	-	22	Out											6	34	44	16	0		5,828
71	6	-	23	Out											1	16	45	35	2		1,457
70	5	-	24	Out											1	5	31	55	9		308
69	4	-	25	Out												5	24	47	24		58
68	3	-	26	Out														60	40		5
65	0	-	29	Out														14	73	13	583

Total:				0.3	%	0	0	0	0	0	2	9	16	27	42	3	0	0	0	0	7,034,980

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Rays 0 Athletics 3	+0.4

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Rays 2 Athletics 3	+0.4

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

				100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance will finish season at seed
TW	W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

94	29	-	0	0	11	41	34	11	2					0
93	28	-	1				100
92	27	-	2			16	16	32	26	11
91	26	-	3			1	9	23	29	21	1			16
90	25	-	4				1	8	20	28	10	1	0	29	3
89	24	-	5				0	1	8	20	15	3	0	42	11	0
88	23	-	6					0	1	7	12	6	1	47	26	0
87	22	-	7					0	0	1	4	4	2	39	45	4	0	0
86	21	-	8						0	0	1	1	2	23	55	16	2	0	0
85	20	-	9							0	0	0	1	8	42	34	12	2	0	0
84	19	-	10								0	0	0	1	18	34	30	13	3	0	0
83	18	-	11										0	0	4	17	32	31	14	2	0	0
82	17	-	12										0	0	0	4	15	32	33	13	2	0	0
81	16	-	13												0	0	3	15	35	32	13	2	0	0
80	15	-	14												0	0	0	3	18	36	30	11	2	0	0
79	14	-	15													0	0	0	5	22	37	27	9	1	0	0
78	13	-	16														0	0	1	7	25	38	23	6	0	0
77	12	-	17															0	0	1	10	30	37	18	3	0	0
76	11	-	18																	0	2	14	35	34	12	2	0	0
75	10	-	19																	0	0	4	19	38	28	9	2	0	0
74	9	-	20																		0	0	6	24	36	25	8	1	0	0
73	8	-	21																			0	1	8	25	34	24	8	1	0
72	7	-	22																				0	1	8	24	36	23	7	0	0
71	6	-	23																					0	1	9	28	35	22	4	0
70	5	-	24																							2	11	32	42	13	0
69	4	-	25																								3	14	45	28	10
68	3	-	26																											80		20
65	0	-	29																										1	8	38	47	6

Total:				0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	6	8	11	14	15	14	11	7	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0