New York Mets Playoff Chances 2014-4

Plays Braves, playoff odds unchanged at 0.1%

62-71 .466

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Mets 4 Dodgers 9	-2.0		-0.3
Marlins 5 Phillies 6	+0.3
Braves 5 Brewers 0	-0.2
Nationals 9 Reds 4	-0.1
Cardinals 5 Diamondbacks 0	-0.1

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Mets 3 Dodgers 4	-1.3		-0.3
Nationals 1 Reds 2	+0.1
Braves 1 Brewers 6	+0.1
Marlins 14 Phillies 5	-0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Mets finish out the regular season. Explain

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

91		29	-	0	In		17	54	18	11	0											583
89		27	-	2	In			50	33	17												6
88		26	-	3	97.5	%			13	58	28	3										40
87		25	-	4	83.0			2	13	34	34	14	3									253
86		24	-	5	61.2			0	5	16	39	29	9	1								1,422
85		23	-	6	32.8				1	6	26	39	24	4								5,633
84		22	-	7	11.9				0	1	11	33	41	14	0							19,256
83		21	-	8	2.9				0	0	3	17	45	33	1	0						55,069
82		20	-	9	0.4					0	0	6	33	54	7	0	0					130,439
81		19	-	10	0.0					0	0	1	16	60	21	2	0					266,362
80		18	-	11	0.0						0	0	5	48	37	10	1	0				465,203
79		17	-	12	Out							0	1	27	44	24	4	0				701,941
78		16	-	13	Out								0	11	36	39	14	1	0			917,112
77		15	-	14	Out								0	3	19	43	32	3	0			1,041,280
76		14	-	15	Out									0	7	32	49	11	1	0		1,030,711
75		13	-	16	Out									0	1	16	54	25	3	0		886,703
74		12	-	17	Out									0	0	5	43	41	11	0		662,311
73		11	-	18	Out										0	1	25	48	25	1	0	427,393
72		10	-	19	Out										0	0	11	42	43	3	0	239,043
71		9	-	20	Out											0	4	28	57	11	0	114,686
70		8	-	21	Out											0	1	14	59	25	1	47,078
69		7	-	22	Out												0	5	49	42	5	15,999
68		6	-	23	Out													1	30	55	14	4,522
67		5	-	24	Out													0	17	55	28	1,117
66		4	-	25	Out														6	46	48	198
65		3	-	26	Out														3	38	59	34
63	-64				Out																100	3	*
62		0	-	29	Out															3	97	583

Total:					0.1	%	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	11	17	22	27	14	6	1	0	7,034,980

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Mets 4 Dodgers 9	+0.6

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Mets 3 Dodgers 4	+0.6

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

					100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:					Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

91		29	-	0			1	14	31	34	16	3	0
89		27	-	2						33	33		33
88		26	-	3							5	28	40	25		3
87		25	-	4							1	14	36	32	8	6	4	0
86		24	-	5							0	2	18	41	8	18	10	3	0	0
85		23	-	6								0	5	27	4	19	26	13	4	1
84		22	-	7								0	1	11	1	10	26	30	17	4	0	0
83		21	-	8									0	3	0	2	11	28	32	19	4	0	0
82		20	-	9									0	0		0	2	11	28	36	19	3	0	0
81		19	-	10										0		0	0	2	11	31	37	16	3	0	0
80		18	-	11										0			0	0	2	13	35	34	14	2	0	0
79		17	-	12														0	0	3	17	36	31	12	2	0	0
78		16	-	13														0	0	0	5	20	37	29	9	1	0	0
77		15	-	14																0	1	6	24	39	25	4	0	0
76		14	-	15																0	0	1	9	31	42	15	2	0	0
75		13	-	16																	0	0	2	14	41	32	10	1	0	0
74		12	-	17																		0	0	3	25	38	25	8	1	0	0
73		11	-	18																			0	0	9	28	35	21	6	1	0	0
72		10	-	19																				0	2	12	29	33	19	5	1	0
71		9	-	20																					0	3	13	30	33	16	4	0	0
70		8	-	21																					0	0	3	15	32	32	14	3	0
69		7	-	22																						0	0	4	18	35	31	11	1
68		6	-	23																								1	4	21	39	29	6	0
67		5	-	24																									1	6	29	43	20	0
66		4	-	25																										1	13	43	40	3
65		3	-	26																											3	32	59	6
63	-64																																100
62		0	-	29																												2	41	57

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	7	10	14	17	19	13	7	4	2	1	0	0	0	0