Chicago Cubs Playoff Chances 2014-4

Lost to Reds 2-7, playoff odds down 0.005 to 0.01%

60-73 .451

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Cubs 6 Yankees 1	+0.6		+0.2
Cardinals 5 Diamondbacks 0	-0.1
Braves 5 Brewers 0	+0.1

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Cubs 2 Yankees 4	-1.1		-0.3
Braves 1 Brewers 6	-0.2
Cardinals 3 Diamondbacks 2	-0.2

What If

Chances based on how well the Cubs finish out the regular season. Explain

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW	W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

89	29	-	0	In		4	34	57	4	1											583
87	27	-	2	In						100											1
86	26	-	3	75.0	%			25		50	25										4
85	25	-	4	62.8				14	9	40	26	12									43
84	24	-	5	28.2				4	5	19	43	23	6	1							174
83	23	-	6	9.7				1	1	8	30	42	17	1	0						909
82	22	-	7	1.4					0	1	12	40	39	7	0						3,960
81	21	-	8	0.1						0	2	20	52	22	3	0					13,432
80	20	-	9	0.0						0	0	6	40	39	13	2	0				38,307
79	19	-	10	Out							0	1	20	41	29	8	1				95,076
78	18	-	11	Out								0	7	28	40	22	3	0			200,922
77	17	-	12	Out								0	1	12	35	38	12	0			367,125
76	16	-	13	Out								0	0	3	20	44	30	2	0		585,386
75	15	-	14	Out									0	1	7	35	49	8	0		814,381
74	14	-	15	Out									0	0	2	19	58	21	0	0	988,931
73	13	-	16	Out									0	0	0	7	53	38	1	0	1,046,055
72	12	-	17	Out										0	0	2	38	56	4	0	965,772
71	11	-	18	Out											0	0	23	66	10	0	776,255
70	10	-	19	Out												0	11	66	22	1	539,897
69	9	-	20	Out												0	4	55	37	3	323,778
68	8	-	21	Out													1	38	51	10	165,561
67	7	-	22	Out													0	22	57	21	71,641
66	6	-	23	Out													0	10	53	38	26,171
65	5	-	24	Out													0	4	40	56	7,834
64	4	-	25	Out														1	25	74	1,798
63	3	-	26	Out														0	11	89	347
62	2	-	27	Out															8	92	50
61	1	-	28	Out																100	4
60	0	-	29	Out															1	99	583

Total:				0.0	%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	6	15	34	34	7	1	7,034,980

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Cubs 6 Yankees 1	-0.4

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Cubs 2 Yankees 4	+0.6

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

				100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance will finish season at seed
TW	W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

89	29	-	0				1	6	22	40	27	4	0
87	27	-	2									100
86	26	-	3								25		50		25
85	25	-	4									19	44	5	12	16	5
84	24	-	5									5	23	1	11	28	21	10
83	23	-	6									1	8		4	18	30	27	11	2	0
82	22	-	7									0	1		0	3	15	31	31	15	3	0	0
81	21	-	8										0		0	0	2	13	31	33	16	4	0	0
80	20	-	9										0			0	0	2	12	30	33	17	4	0	0
79	19	-	10														0	0	2	13	30	33	18	4	0	0
78	18	-	11															0	0	3	13	31	34	16	3	0	0
77	17	-	12																0	0	3	15	34	34	12	1	0	0
76	16	-	13																0	0	0	4	19	40	29	6	0	0
75	15	-	14																	0	0	1	6	28	42	20	4	0	0
74	14	-	15																		0	0	1	11	37	36	13	2	0	0
73	13	-	16																			0	0	3	20	39	28	8	1	0	0
72	12	-	17																			0	0	0	7	27	39	21	5	0	0
71	11	-	18																				0	0	2	12	33	35	15	2	0	0
70	10	-	19																					0	0	3	18	37	30	10	1	0	0
69	9	-	20																						0	1	6	25	38	24	6	0	0
68	8	-	21																							0	1	10	31	37	18	3	0
67	7	-	22																							0	0	3	15	37	34	10	0
66	6	-	23																								0	0	5	23	44	26	2
65	5	-	24																									0	1	10	37	44	8
64	4	-	25																										0	2	22	58	18
63	3	-	26																												12	52	36
62	2	-	27																												4	48	48
61	1	-	28																													25	75
60	0	-	29																												0	14	86

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	6	11	17	19	17	13	7	4	1	0	0