Boston Red Sox Playoff Chances 2014-4

Did not play, playoff odds unchanged at 0.002%

58-75 .436

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Red Sox 4 Blue Jays 7	-2.4		-0.3
Pirates 2 Orioles 9	-0.4
Cubs 6 Yankees 1	+0.4
Rangers 2 Mariners 6	-0.2
Angels 9 Astros 3	-0.1

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Red Sox 4 Blue Jays 6	-1.8		-0.3
Pirates 9 Orioles 8	+0.3
Cubs 2 Yankees 4	-0.2
Angels 2 Astros 1	*-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Red Sox finish out the regular season. Explain

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW	W	-	L	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

87	29	-	0	25.6	%		1	14		11	41	32	1								583
84	26	-	3	Out									100								1
83	25	-	4	Out								57	43								7
82	24	-	5	Out								12	42	42	3						33
81	23	-	6	Out								3	26	50	21	1					192
80	22	-	7	Out								1	8	44	41	6					965
79	21	-	8	Out									2	22	57	18	0				3,585
78	20	-	9	Out									0	7	49	42	1				12,160
77	19	-	10	Out									0	1	30	64	5	0			35,254
76	18	-	11	Out										0	13	74	12	0			86,742
75	17	-	12	Out										0	4	70	25	1	0		185,603
74	16	-	13	Out										0	1	56	39	4	0		346,251
73	15	-	14	Out											0	38	51	11	0		562,784
72	14	-	15	Out											0	21	55	23	1		797,214
71	13	-	16	Out											0	10	48	40	3	0	981,085
70	12	-	17	Out											0	3	34	55	8	0	1,058,210
69	11	-	18	Out												1	19	62	18	0	989,491
68	10	-	19	Out												0	9	58	33	0	804,183
67	9	-	20	Out												0	3	45	50	1	562,306
66	8	-	21	Out												0	1	29	65	5	334,849
65	7	-	22	Out													0	15	72	12	168,926
64	6	-	23	Out													0	6	69	25	70,772
63	5	-	24	Out														2	58	40	24,715
62	4	-	25	Out														0	41	59	6,836
61	3	-	26	Out															31	69	1,435
60	2	-	27	Out															19	81	196
59	1	-	28	Out															5	95	19
58	0	-	29	Out															3	97	583

Total:				0.0	%		0	0		0	0	0	0	0	1	13	29	38	18	1	7,034,980

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Red Sox 4 Blue Jays 7	+0.6

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Red Sox 4 Blue Jays 6	+0.6

What If

This isn't your lottery pick because it does not factor in ping pong balls.
It's the final seed that gets you the ping pong balls.
The top 10 seeds are wrong, just ignore them for now.

				100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:				Chance will finish season at seed
TW	W	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

87	29	-	0						1	3	11	8	3	38	34	2	0
84	26	-	3													100
83	25	-	4												14	43	43
82	24	-	5													6	24	33	33	3
81	23	-	6													1	6	23	38	24	7	1
80	22	-	7													0	0	8	21	38	23	9	1
79	21	-	8														0	1	6	22	33	26	10	2	0
78	20	-	9																1	6	19	32	28	12	2	0
77	19	-	10																0	1	5	18	33	29	12	2	0
76	18	-	11																0	0	1	5	19	35	29	9	1	0
75	17	-	12																	0	0	1	6	23	39	24	7	1	0
74	16	-	13																		0	0	1	8	30	36	20	5	0	0
73	15	-	14																			0	0	2	14	33	34	15	2	0	0
72	14	-	15																				0	0	4	18	36	31	10	1	0
71	13	-	16																					0	1	6	24	40	25	4	0	0
70	12	-	17																					0	0	1	10	33	41	14	2	0
69	11	-	18																						0	0	2	17	43	29	7	1	0
68	10	-	19																							0	0	6	31	41	19	3	0
67	9	-	20																								0	1	14	39	35	10	0
66	8	-	21																									0	4	25	44	25	1
65	7	-	22																									0	1	10	39	44	5
64	6	-	23																										0	3	24	59	14
63	5	-	24																										0	1	11	59	29
62	4	-	25																											0	3	47	50
61	3	-	26																												1	36	63
60	2	-	27																												1	22	77
59	1	-	28																													11	89
58	0	-	29																													5	95

Total:									0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	5	8	13	19	22	16	10	4	1