Calgary Flames Playoff Chances 2016-2017

Lost to Vancouver 1-2, playoff odds down 6.8 to 41.4%

2 points 1 2-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Vancouver 2 Calgary 1	-4.8		-0.5		-0.4
Arizona 2 Philadelphia 4	+0.6				+0.1
Columbus 4 San Jose 1	+0.4
Pittsburgh 2 Anaheim 3	-0.3				-0.0
St. Louis 3 NY Rangers 1	-0.3

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Vancouver vs Carolina	-0.2-0.5-0.4-0.0-0.0+0.5				-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0*-0.0+0.1
NY Islanders vs Anaheim	+0.4+0.3+0.1-0.2-0.3-0.5
Edmonton vs Buffalo	-0.3-0.3-0.1-0.2-0.1+0.5				-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0*-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

121	-160						In		Yes		100																245	*
120		55	16		-	8	In		96.6	%	98		2														59	*
119		55	17		-	7	In		95.8		99	1															95	*
118		54	17		-	8	In		96.1		98	2															152	*
117		53	17		-	9	In		96.3		99	1	0														242	*
116		52	17		-	10	In		94.9		98	1	2														332	*
115		52	18		-	9	In		93.8		96	2	2														518	*
114		52	19		-	8	In		91.6		95	3	2		0												759	*
113		51	19		-	9	In		84.7		93	3	4		0												1,167	*
112		51	20		-	8	In		81.2		90	5	5														1,660	*
111		50	20		-	9	In		74.2		86	6	7		0												2,471	*
110		50	21		-	8	In		65.6		82	8	10		0												3,490	*
109		49	21		-	9	In		55.6		76	11	13	0	0												4,757	*
108		49	22		-	8	In		45.5		68	15	16	0	1												6,430	*
107		48	22		-	9	In		34.3		60	18	19	0	2		0										8,663	*
106		47	22		-	10	In		23.6		51	21	24	1	3		0										11,421	*
105		47	23		-	9	In		15.4		42	24	28	1	4		0										14,411	*
104		46	23		-	10	In		8.2		32	27	33	2	6	0	1	0									18,400	*
103		46	24		-	9	In		3.9		23	27	35	4	10	0	1	0									23,143	*
102		45	24		-	10	In		1.5		16	26	36	7	13	0	2	0									28,055	*
101		45	25		-	9	100.0	%	0.4		10	24	33	10	18	1	3	0	0								34,135	*
100		44	25		-	10	100.0		0.1		5	21	29	15	23	1	6	1	0								41,070	*
99		44	26		-	9	99.9		0.0		3	17	23	19	26	3	9	1	0	0							47,526	*
98		43	26		-	10	99.8		0.0		1	13	16	21	28	6	13	2	0	0							54,975	*
97		43	27		-	9	99.4		No		0	9	10	22	27	10	18	5	1	0							62,633	*
96		42	27		-	10	98.4		No		0	6	5	20	23	14	22	8	2	0	0						70,066	*
95		42	28		-	9	96.0		No		0	3	3	17	17	19	24	13	3	0	0	0					77,919	*
94		41	28		-	10	91.2		No		0	2	1	13	11	21	25	19	7	2	0	0					84,149	*
93		41	29		-	9	82.6		No		0	1	0	8	6	20	22	24	13	4	1	0					90,483	*
92		40	29		-	10	70.2		No			0	0	5	3	18	17	26	19	8	2	0	0				95,274	*
91		40	30		-	9	54.9		No			0	0	3	1	14	12	25	25	14	5	1	0	0			98,594	*
90		39	30		-	10	38.2		No			0	0	2	0	10	7	20	27	21	10	3	0	0			101,320	*
89		39	31		-	9	24.0		No			0	0	1	0	6	3	13	26	26	17	6	1	0			101,559	*
88		38	31		-	10	13.3		No			0		0	0	4	1	8	20	28	24	11	3	0			101,628	*
87		38	32		-	9	6.6		No			0		0	0	2	1	4	14	26	28	18	6	1			99,497	*
86		37	32		-	10	2.9		No			0		0		1	0	2	8	20	30	25	11	2			95,809	*
85		37	33		-	9	1.2		No					0		1	0	1	4	14	28	31	18	4			90,961	*
84		36	33		-	10	0.4		No					0		0	0	0	2	9	23	34	25	7			85,366	*
83		36	34		-	9	0.2		No					0		0	0	0	1	5	17	33	32	13			79,210	*
82		35	34		-	10	0.0		No							0		0	0	2	11	29	38	19			71,850	*
81		35	35		-	9	0.0		No							0		0	0	1	7	24	41	27			64,666	*
80		34	35		-	10	0.0		No							0			0	0	4	18	42	36			56,894	*
79		34	36		-	9	0.0		No							0			0	0	2	13	39	46			49,752	*
78		33	36		-	10	Out		No										0	0	1	8	36	55			42,598	*
77		33	37		-	9	Out		No											0	0	5	31	63			35,797	*
76		32	37		-	10	Out		No											0	0	3	26	71			30,042	*
75		32	38		-	9	Out		No												0	2	21	77			24,757	*
74		31	38		-	10	Out		No												0	1	16	83			19,932	*
73		31	39		-	9	Out		No												0	0	12	88			16,084	*
72		30	39		-	10	Out		No													0	9	90			12,425	*
71		30	40		-	9	Out		No													0	7	93			9,681	*
70		29	40		-	10	Out		No													0	5	95			7,404	*
69		29	41		-	9	Out		No													0	3	97			5,660	*
68		28	41		-	10	Out		No														3	97			4,109	*
67		28	42		-	9	Out		No														2	98			2,987	*
66		27	42		-	10	Out		No														1	99			2,174	*
65		27	43		-	9	Out		No														1	99			1,517	*
64		27	44		-	8	Out		No														1	99			1,040	*
63		26	44		-	9	Out		No														0	100			723	*
2	-62						Out		No															100			1,644	*

Total:							41.4	%	1.2	%	3	4	4	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	10	11	12			2,100,380

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Vancouver 2 Calgary 1	+1.0
Arizona 2 Philadelphia 4	-0.1
Columbus 4 San Jose 1	-0.0
Pittsburgh 2 Anaheim 3	+0.0
Chicago 1 Nashville 0 (so)	*+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Vancouver vs Carolina	+0.0+0.1*+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
Edmonton vs Buffalo	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1
NY Islanders vs Anaheim	-0.1*-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

121	-160						100
120		55	16		-	8	97	2			2
119		55	17		-	7	96	3	1
118		54	17		-	8	96	2	2
117		53	17		-	9	96	2	1		0
116		52	17		-	10	95	3	1		2
115		52	18		-	9	94	3	2		2
114		52	19		-	8	92	4	3		2				0
113		51	19		-	9	85	8	3		4				0
112		51	20		-	8	81	9	5		5
111		50	20		-	9	74	12	6	0	7				0
110		50	21		-	8	66	16	8	0	10				0
109		49	21		-	9	56	20	11	0	12	0	0		0
108		49	22		-	8	45	23	14	0	16	0	0		1
107		48	22		-	9	34	26	17	1	19	1	0		2				0
106		47	22		-	10	24	28	20	1	23	1	1		3	0			0
105		47	23		-	9	15	27	21	3	25	3	1		4	0			0
104		46	23		-	10	8	24	22	5	28	5	2	0	6	0	0		1		0
103		46	24		-	9	4	19	20	7	26	9	4	0	9	0	0		1	0	0
102		45	24		-	10	2	14	16	10	22	13	7	0	13	1	0		2	0	0
101		45	25		-	9	0	9	12	12	16	17	10	0	16	2	1		3	0	0		0
100		44	25		-	10	0	5	8	13	10	19	13	1	19	4	1		5	0	1		0
99		44	26		-	9	0	3	4	13	5	18	15	3	19	8	3	0	8	0	1	0	0	0
98		43	26		-	10	0	1	2	11	2	15	15	6	16	12	6	0	11	1	2	0	0	0
97		43	27		-	9		0	1	8	0	10	12	10	10	17	9	1	15	3	5	0	1	0
96		42	27		-	10		0	0	5	0	5	8	12	5	18	13	2	15	6	8	0	1	0	0
95		42	28		-	9		0	0	3	0	2	4	13	2	15	14	5	13	11	12	2	3	1	0	0
94		41	28		-	10		0	0	2		1	2	11	0	11	12	9	9	16	14	5	7	2	0	0
93		41	29		-	9		0	0	1		0	1	8	0	6	8	13	4	18	14	10	11	5	1	0	0	0
92		40	29		-	10				0		0	0	5	0	3	4	14	1	16	9	17	14	10	4	1	0	0	0	0
91		40	30		-	9				0		0	0	3	0	1	2	12	0	11	4	21	12	15	11	5	2	0	0	0
90		39	30		-	10				0		0	0	2		0	0	9	0	7	1	18	7	15	17	13	6	2	1	0	0
89		39	31		-	9				0		0	0	1		0	0	6	0	3	0	13	3	9	16	19	15	9	3	1	0	0	0	0
88		38	31		-	10				0				0		0	0	4	0	1	0	8	1	4	10	17	21	18	11	4	1	0	0	0
87		38	32		-	9				0				0		0	0	2		1	0	4	0	1	4	10	18	22	20	12	5	2	0	0	0
86		37	32		-	10				0				0				1		0		2	0	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	13	6	2	0	0
85		37	33		-	9								0				1		0		1		0	0	1	4	10	18	24	22	13	6	1	0	0
84		36	33		-	10								0				0		0		0			0	0	1	4	10	19	25	22	13	5	1	0
83		36	34		-	9								0				0		0		0		0	0	0	0	1	4	12	21	26	21	11	3	0
82		35	34		-	10												0				0				0	0	0	1	5	14	24	27	19	8	1
81		35	35		-	9												0				0					0	0	0	2	7	18	28	27	14	3
80		34	35		-	10												0										0	0	1	3	11	24	31	23	7
79		34	36		-	9												0											0	0	1	6	17	32	31	13
78		33	36		-	10																							0	0	0	2	11	27	38	21
77		33	37		-	9																								0	0	1	6	22	40	31
76		32	37		-	10																								0	0	0	3	16	40	41
75		32	38		-	9																									0	0	2	10	37	51
74		31	38		-	10																									0	0	1	6	32	62
73		31	39		-	9																											0	4	25	71
72		30	39		-	10																											0	2	20	77
71		30	40		-	9																											0	1	15	83
70		29	40		-	10																												1	12	88
69		29	41		-	9																												0	8	92
68		28	41		-	10																												0	6	94
67		28	42		-	9																												0	3	96
66		27	42		-	10																													3	97
65		27	43		-	9																												0	2	98
64		27	44		-	8																													1	99
63		26	44		-	9																													1	99
62		25	44		-	10																														100
61		25	45		-	9																													1	99
2	-60																																			100

Total:							1	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	2	3	3	4	3	4	3	5	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	6