Anaheim Ducks Playoff Chances 2016-2017

Beat Pittsburgh 3-2, playoff odds up 7.9 to 74%

4 points 2 0-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Pittsburgh 2 Anaheim 3	+4.0		+1.3		+0.4
Arizona 2 Philadelphia 4	+0.5		+0.1		+0.1
Columbus 4 San Jose 1	+0.4
St. Louis 3 NY Rangers 1	-0.2
Minnesota 3 Winnipeg 2	*+0.1
Ottawa 5 Montreal 6 (ot)			*-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
NY Islanders vs Anaheim	-3.7-0.2+0.1+3.2+3.6+3.7		-1.6-0.2-0.2+1.5+1.6+1.7		-0.4-0.0*-0.0+0.4+0.4+0.4
Vancouver vs Carolina	-0.3-0.2-0.3+0.4+0.1+0.4				-0.0-0.0-0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.1
Edmonton vs Buffalo	-0.3-0.3-0.2+0.3-0.2+0.4				-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0*-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Anaheim finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

123	-164						In		Yes		100																1,059	*
122		55	17		-	8	In		99.4	%	100	0															472	*
121		55	18		-	7	In		99.4		100																834	*
120		54	18		-	8	In		99.2		100	0	0														1,179	*
119		53	18		-	9	In		99.2		100	0	0														1,807	*
118		53	19		-	8	In		98.0		99	1	0														2,456	*
117		52	19		-	9	In		97.3		99	1	0														3,505	*
116		52	20		-	8	In		95.1		98	1	1		0												4,749	*
115		51	20		-	9	In		94.0		97	2	1		0												6,651	*
114		51	21		-	8	In		90.1		95	3	2		0												8,583	*
113		50	21		-	9	In		87.1		94	4	2		0												11,351	*
112		50	22		-	8	In		80.8		91	5	3		0												14,611	*
111		49	22		-	9	In		74.6		88	7	5		0												18,528	*
110		49	23		-	8	In		66.9		84	9	7	0	0												23,121	*
109		48	23		-	9	In		56.4		78	12	9	0	0		0										28,750	*
108		48	24		-	8	In		45.9		72	16	12	0	0		0										34,571	*
107		47	24		-	9	In		34.9		63	20	16	0	1		0										41,382	*
106		47	25		-	8	In		24.4		54	24	20	1	2	0	0										48,459	*
105		46	25		-	9	In		15.4		45	27	24	1	3	0	0	0									55,591	*
104		46	26		-	8	In		8.5		35	30	28	2	5	0	0	0									63,157	*
103		45	26		-	9	In		4.1		26	32	31	4	7	0	0	0									70,694	*
102		44	26		-	10	In		1.5		18	32	33	7	10	0	1	0									78,286	*
101		44	27		-	9	100.0	%	0.5		11	30	32	11	14	0	2	0	0								84,676	*
100		43	27		-	10	100.0		0.1		6	27	29	15	18	1	3	0	0								90,699	*
99		43	28		-	9	100.0		0.0		3	23	24	20	22	3	6	1	0	0							94,894	*
98		42	28		-	10	99.9		0.0		1	17	17	24	24	5	9	1	0	0							98,982	*
97		42	29		-	9	99.7		No		1	12	11	25	25	9	13	3	0	0	0						100,372	*
96		41	29		-	10	99.0		No		0	9	6	25	22	14	17	6	1	0	0						101,512	*
95		41	30		-	9	97.3		No		0	5	3	21	17	20	21	10	2	0	0	0					100,511	*
94		40	30		-	10	93.6		No		0	3	1	17	12	23	22	15	5	1	0	0	0				98,364	*
93		40	31		-	9	86.5		No		0	2	0	12	7	24	21	20	10	3	0	0					94,999	*
92		39	31		-	10	75.3		No			1	0	8	3	22	17	24	16	6	2	0	0				90,244	*
91		39	32		-	9	60.4		No			0	0	5	1	18	12	23	22	12	4	1	0	0			84,506	*
90		38	32		-	10	43.9		No			0	0	3	1	14	7	20	26	19	8	2	0	0			78,600	*
89		38	33		-	9	29.0		No			0		1	0	9	4	14	25	25	15	5	1	0			71,519	*
88		37	33		-	10	16.6		No			0		1	0	6	2	8	21	28	22	10	2	0			64,761	*
87		37	34		-	9	8.7		No			0		0	0	3	1	4	15	26	28	16	5	1			56,315	*
86		36	34		-	10	4.1		No					0		2	0	2	9	22	30	24	10	1			49,256	*
85		36	35		-	9	1.8		No					0	0	1	0	1	5	15	29	29	16	3			42,805	*
84		35	35		-	10	0.6		No					0		0	0	0	2	10	24	33	24	6			35,826	*
83		35	36		-	9	0.3		No					0		0	0	0	1	6	18	34	31	11			30,343	*
82		34	36		-	10	0.1		No							0		0	0	3	12	30	37	18			24,482	*
81		34	37		-	9	0.0		No							0		0	0	1	8	25	41	25			20,167	*
80		33	37		-	10	0.0		No							0			0	0	5	19	41	34			16,247	*
79		33	38		-	9	Out		No											0	2	13	41	44			12,653	*
78		32	38		-	10	Out		No										0	0	1	9	36	54			9,852	*
77		32	39		-	9	Out		No												1	5	32	62			7,430	*
76		32	40		-	8	Out		No											0	0	4	27	69			5,756	*
75		31	40		-	9	Out		No												0	2	22	76			4,215	*
74		30	40		-	10	Out		No												0	1	17	82			3,072	*
73		30	41		-	9	Out		No													1	13	87			2,179	*
72		30	42		-	8	Out		No													1	10	89			1,628	*
71		29	42		-	9	Out		No													0	6	94			1,145	*
70		28	42		-	10	Out		No														6	94			795	*
69		28	43		-	9	Out		No														2	98			575	*
68		28	44		-	8	Out		No														2	98			379	*
67		27	44		-	9	Out		No														1	99			236	*
66		27	45		-	8	Out		No														1	99			155	*
65		25	44		-	11	Out		No														1	99			98	*
64		26	46		-	8	Out		No														2	98			61	*
4	-63						Out		No															100			275	*

Total:							74.0	%	7.5	%	14	11	11	9	9	8	7	6	6	5	5	4	3	3			2,100,380

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 2 Anaheim 3	-0.9
Arizona 2 Philadelphia 4	-0.1
Columbus 4 San Jose 1	-0.1
Ottawa 5 Montreal 6 (ot)	*+0.1
Toronto 3 Boston 2	*-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
NY Islanders vs Anaheim	+0.9+0.1+0.0-0.8-0.9-0.9
Vancouver vs Carolina	+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.1
Edmonton vs Buffalo	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1*+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

123	-164						100
122		55	17		-	8	99	0	0
121		55	18		-	7	99	1
120		54	18		-	8	99	0	0		0
119		53	18		-	9	99	0	0		0
118		53	19		-	8	98	1	1		0
117		52	19		-	9	97	2	1		0
116		52	20		-	8	95	3	1		1				0
115		51	20		-	9	94	3	2		1				0
114		51	21		-	8	90	5	3		2	0			0
113		50	21		-	9	87	7	4	0	2				0
112		50	22		-	8	81	10	5	0	3				0
111		49	22		-	9	75	13	7	0	5	0			0
110		49	23		-	8	67	17	9	0	7	0	0		0
109		48	23		-	9	56	22	12	0	9	0	0		0				0
108		48	24		-	8	46	26	15	0	12	0	0		0				0
107		47	24		-	9	35	28	19	1	15	1	0		1				0
106		47	25		-	8	24	30	22	2	19	1	1		2	0	0		0
105		46	25		-	9	15	29	24	3	22	3	1		3	0	0		0		0
104		46	26		-	8	9	26	25	5	23	5	2	0	5	0	0		0		0
103		45	26		-	9	4	22	23	9	23	8	4	0	7	0	0		0	0	0
102		44	26		-	10	1	16	20	12	20	13	7	0	9	1	0		1	0	0
101		44	27		-	9	0	11	15	15	15	17	10	1	12	1	0		2	0	0		0
100		43	27		-	10	0	6	10	17	9	19	14	1	15	3	1	0	3	0	0		0
99		43	28		-	9	0	3	6	17	5	19	16	4	15	6	3	0	5	0	1	0	0	0
98		42	28		-	10	0	1	3	15	2	16	16	7	14	11	5	0	8	1	1	0	0	0
97		42	29		-	9		1	1	11	0	11	13	12	9	15	9	1	11	2	3	0	0	0	0
96		41	29		-	10		0	0	8	0	6	9	16	5	18	12	2	12	5	5	0	1	0	0	0
95		41	30		-	9		0	0	5	0	3	5	16	2	16	14	5	11	10	9	1	2	0	0	0
94		40	30		-	10		0	0	3		1	2	15	0	12	13	11	7	15	11	4	5	1	0	0	0
93		40	31		-	9		0	0	2		0	1	12	0	7	9	15	4	17	11	9	9	4	1	0	0	0
92		39	31		-	10			0	1		0	0	8	0	3	5	18	1	16	8	16	12	8	3	1	0	0	0
91		39	32		-	9				0		0	0	5		1	2	16	0	12	4	20	11	13	9	4	1	0	0	0
90		38	32		-	10				0		0	0	3		1	1	13	0	7	1	19	7	14	15	11	6	2	1	0	0	0
89		38	33		-	9				0			0	1		0	0	9	0	4	0	14	3	9	15	18	14	8	3	1	0	0	0
88		37	33		-	10				0				1		0	0	6		2	0	8	1	3	10	17	20	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
87		37	34		-	9				0				0		0	0	3		1	0	4	0	1	4	10	18	22	19	12	5	1	0	0	0
86		36	34		-	10								0			0	2		0		2	0	0	1	4	10	18	23	20	13	5	2	0	0
85		36	35		-	9								0		0		1		0		1		0	0	1	4	10	19	24	21	13	5	1	0	0
84		35	35		-	10								0				0		0		0		0	0	0	1	4	10	20	25	21	12	4	1	0
83		35	36		-	9								0				0		0		0				0	0	1	5	12	21	26	20	10	3	0
82		34	36		-	10												0				0				0	0	0	1	6	14	24	27	19	7	1
81		34	37		-	9												0				0						0	0	2	7	18	28	27	14	3
80		33	37		-	10												0									0	0	0	1	3	11	24	31	23	7
79		33	38		-	9																							0	0	1	6	17	32	31	12
78		32	38		-	10																								0	0	3	11	28	37	21
77		32	39		-	9																								0	0	1	6	22	40	31
76		32	40		-	8																									0	0	3	16	40	40
75		31	40		-	9																										0	1	11	38	51
74		30	40		-	10																									0	0	1	6	31	62
73		30	41		-	9																											0	4	25	71
72		30	42		-	8																											0	3	21	76
71		29	42		-	9																												1	17	82
70		28	42		-	10																												1	11	88
69		28	43		-	9																												1	7	92
68		28	44		-	8																													6	94
67		27	44		-	9																													4	96
66		27	45		-	8																													5	95
65		25	44		-	11																													3	97
64		26	46		-	8																													2	98
63		24	45		-	11																													3	97
4	-62																																			100

Total:							7	6	6	5	5	5	4	5	4	4	3	4	3	4	2	4	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1