Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances 2016-2017

Beat Boston 3-2, playoff odds up 6.1 to 53.9%

3 points 1 0-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Toronto 3 Boston 2	+3.9		+0.5		+0.4
Arizona 2 Philadelphia 4	*-0.3
Columbus 4 San Jose 1	-0.2
Florida 3 Detroit 2					+0.0
St. Louis 3 NY Rangers 1					+0.0
Tampa Bay 2 New Jersey 0					-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Edmonton vs Buffalo	+0.4+0.2-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.4				+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0
Vancouver vs Carolina	+0.2-0.0+0.1*-0.2-0.5-0.2
NY Islanders vs Anaheim	-0.2-0.3-0.1+0.1-0.1+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

122	-163						In		Yes		100																540	*
121		55	17		-	8	In		99.2	%	100	0															240	*
119	-120						In		99.5		100																916	*
118		53	18		-	9	In		99.0		100		0														811	*
117		53	19		-	8	In		96.2		99	1	0														1,190	*
116		52	19		-	9	In		94.6		98	1	1														1,702	*
115		52	20		-	8	In		93.3		97	2	1														2,414	*
114		51	20		-	9	In		90.2		96	2	2		0												3,369	*
113		51	21		-	8	In		85.8		94	4	2		0												4,727	*
112		50	21		-	9	In		80.7		92	4	4		0												6,128	*
111		50	22		-	8	In		72.7		87	7	5		0		0										8,338	*
110		49	22		-	9	In		64.9		83	9	8	0	0												11,054	*
109		48	22		-	10	In		54.5		77	12	11	0	0		0										14,407	*
108		48	23		-	9	In		44.8		71	15	13	0	1		0										18,011	*
107		47	23		-	10	In		33.5		62	19	17	0	1		0										22,401	*
106		47	24		-	9	In		22.9		52	23	22	1	2	0	0										27,598	*
105		46	24		-	10	In		14.2		42	26	27	1	4	0	0	0									33,557	*
104		46	25		-	9	In		7.8		33	28	30	2	6	0	0	0									40,325	*
103		45	25		-	10	In		3.6		23	29	33	4	9	0	1	0									47,476	*
102		45	26		-	9	100.0	%	1.4		15	28	34	7	13	0	2	0	0								54,358	*
101		44	26		-	10	100.0		0.5		9	26	32	11	18	1	4	0	0								61,854	*
100		44	27		-	9	99.9		0.1		5	22	27	15	22	2	6	1	0	0							69,828	*
99		43	27		-	10	99.8		0.0		2	17	21	19	25	3	10	2	0	0	0						76,479	*
98		43	28		-	9	99.5		0.0		1	12	14	21	27	7	14	4	1	0	0						82,878	*
97		42	28		-	10	98.5		No		0	8	8	21	24	11	19	7	1	0	0						89,180	*
96		42	29		-	9	96.3		No		0	5	4	18	19	16	23	12	3	0	0	0					94,081	*
95		41	29		-	10	91.7		No		0	3	2	14	13	18	24	17	7	1	0	0	0				98,202	*
94		41	30		-	9	82.7		No		0	2	1	10	7	19	22	23	12	4	1	0	0				100,116	*
93		40	30		-	10	69.3		No			1	0	6	3	17	17	25	19	9	2	0	0	0			101,491	*
92		40	31		-	9	52.2		No			0	0	3	1	13	11	23	24	15	6	2	0	0	0		101,279	*
91		39	31		-	10	34.4		No			0	0	2	0	9	6	17	25	22	12	4	1	0	0		98,635	*
90		39	32		-	9	19.9		No			0	0	1	0	6	3	11	22	26	20	9	3	1	0	0	95,991	*
89		38	32		-	10	9.6		No			0	0	0	0	3	1	5	15	25	25	17	7	2	0	0	91,013	*
88		38	33		-	9	4.3		No			0		0	0	2	0	2	9	19	27	24	13	4	1	0	86,146	*
87		37	33		-	10	1.6		No			0		0		1	0	1	4	12	23	27	21	9	2	0	79,332	*
86		37	34		-	9	0.5		No					0		0	0	0	2	6	17	27	27	16	5	1	72,511	*
85		36	34		-	10	0.2		No					0		0		0	1	3	10	22	30	23	9	2	65,363	*
84		36	35		-	9	0.1		No					0		0		0	0	1	5	16	28	30	16	3	57,892	*
83		35	35		-	10	0.0		No							0		0	0	0	2	10	24	33	24	7	50,489	*
82		35	36		-	9	0.0		No							0			0	0	1	5	17	33	31	12	43,887	*
81		34	36		-	10	Out		No										0	0	0	3	12	29	37	18	37,164	*
80		34	37		-	9	Out		No											0	0	1	7	24	41	26	30,958	*
79		33	37		-	10	Out		No												0	0	4	18	42	36	25,616	*
78		33	38		-	9	Out		No												0	0	2	13	40	45	20,825	*
77		32	38		-	10	Out		No												0	0	1	8	36	55	16,595	*
76		32	39		-	9	Out		No													0	0	6	30	64	13,338	*
75		31	39		-	10	Out		No													0	0	3	25	72	10,311	*
74		31	40		-	9	Out		No														0	2	20	78	7,661	*
73		30	40		-	10	Out		No														0	1	15	84	6,015	*
72		30	41		-	9	Out		No														0	0	11	88	4,510	*
71		29	41		-	10	Out		No															0	9	91	3,247	*
70		29	42		-	9	Out		No															0	6	94	2,444	*
69		28	42		-	10	Out		No															0	5	95	1,655	*
68		27	42		-	11	Out		No																3	97	1,223	*
67		27	43		-	10	Out		No																1	99	846	*
66		27	44		-	9	Out		No																1	99	552	*
65		27	45		-	8	Out		No																1	99	374	*
64		26	45		-	9	Out		No																1	99	240	*
3	-63						Out		No																	100	597	*

Total:							53.9	%	3.5	%	7	7	7	6	7	6	7	7	7	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	2,100,380

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Toronto 3 Boston 2	-0.8
Ottawa 5 Montreal 6 (ot)	*+0.0
Tampa Bay 2 New Jersey 0	+0.0
Florida 3 Detroit 2	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Edmonton vs Buffalo	-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

122	-163						100
121		55	17		-	8	99	0	0
120		55	18		-	7	99	1
119		54	18		-	8	99	1
118		53	18		-	9	99	1			0
117		53	19		-	8	96	3	1		0
116		52	19		-	9	95	3	1		1
115		52	20		-	8	93	3	2		1
114		51	20		-	9	90	6	2		2				0
113		51	21		-	8	86	8	4		2				0
112		50	21		-	9	81	11	4		4				0
111		50	22		-	8	73	15	7	0	5				0				0
110		49	22		-	9	65	18	9	0	8	0	0		0
109		48	22		-	10	55	22	12	0	11	0	0		0				0
108		48	23		-	9	45	26	15	0	13	0	0		1				0
107		47	23		-	10	34	28	18	1	17	1	0		1				0
106		47	24		-	9	23	29	21	2	21	1	1		2		0		0
105		46	24		-	10	14	28	22	3	24	3	1		4	0	0		0		0
104		46	25		-	9	8	25	23	5	25	5	2	0	6	0	0		0		0
103		45	25		-	10	4	20	21	8	24	8	4	0	9	0	0		1		0
102		45	26		-	9	1	14	17	11	21	12	7	0	13	1	0		2	0	0		0
101		44	26		-	10	0	9	13	13	16	16	10	0	16	2	1		4	0	0		0
100		44	27		-	9	0	5	8	14	10	17	14	1	19	3	2	0	6	0	1		0	0
99		43	27		-	10	0	2	4	13	4	16	16	3	19	7	3	0	10	0	2	0	0	0	0
98		43	28		-	9	0	1	2	10	1	12	15	6	16	11	7	0	14	1	4	0	1	0	0
97		42	28		-	10		0	1	8	0	8	12	9	10	14	10	1	17	2	7	0	1	0	0
96		42	29		-	9		0	0	5	0	4	7	11	5	14	14	2	17	5	12	0	3	0	0	0
95		41	29		-	10		0	0	3	0	2	4	10	2	11	14	4	15	9	16	1	7	1	0	0	0
94		41	30		-	9		0	0	2		1	1	8	0	7	12	7	9	12	19	4	12	4	1	0	0
93		40	30		-	10			0	1		0	0	6	0	3	7	10	4	13	17	8	18	9	3	1	0	0
92		40	31		-	9				0		0	0	3	0	1	4	10	1	10	11	12	20	17	8	2	0	0	0
91		39	31		-	10				0		0	0	2		0	1	8	0	6	5	13	17	22	16	8	2	1	0	0	0
90		39	32		-	9				0		0	0	1		0	0	5	0	3	1	9	9	19	23	17	9	3	1	0	0	0
89		38	32		-	10				0		0	0	0		0	0	3	0	1	0	5	3	11	20	23	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
88		38	33		-	9				0				0		0	0	2		0	0	2	1	4	11	20	23	19	11	5	1	0	0	0
87		37	33		-	10				0				0			0	1		0	0	1	0	1	4	11	19	23	20	13	5	2	0	0	0
86		37	34		-	9								0				0		0		0	0	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	13	6	2	0	0
85		36	34		-	10								0				0				0	0	0	0	1	4	10	18	24	22	14	6	1	0	0
84		36	35		-	9								0				0				0		0	0	0	1	4	10	19	25	22	13	5	1	0
83		35	35		-	10												0				0			0	0	0	1	5	11	21	26	21	11	3	0
82		35	36		-	9												0								0	0	0	1	5	14	24	27	19	7	1
81		34	36		-	10																				0		0	0	2	7	18	28	27	15	3
80		34	37		-	9																						0	0	1	3	11	24	32	23	7
79		33	37		-	10																							0	0	1	6	17	32	32	13
78		33	38		-	9																						0	0	0	0	2	11	27	38	21
77		32	38		-	10																								0	0	1	6	21	41	31
76		32	39		-	9																									0	0	4	15	40	41
75		31	39		-	10																									0	0	1	10	37	52
74		31	40		-	9																										0	1	6	31	62
73		30	40		-	10																										0	0	3	26	71
72		30	41		-	9																											0	1	20	78
71		29	41		-	10																												1	16	83
70		29	42		-	9																											0	1	11	88
69		28	42		-	10																												0	8	91
68		27	42		-	11																												0	5	95
67		27	43		-	10																												0	4	96
66		27	44		-	9																													2	98
65		27	45		-	8																													2	98
64		26	45		-	9																													2	98
63		26	46		-	8																													1	99
3	-62																																			100

Total:							3	4	3	3	4	3	3	3	4	3	3	2	4	3	4	3	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2