Dallas Stars Playoff Chances 2016-2017

Beat Colorado 2-1, playoff odds up 4.8 to 48.7%
2 points   1 1-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Saturday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Colorado 1 Dallas 2 +5.0
+0.5
+0.5
St. Louis 3 NY Rangers 1 -0.4
-0.0
Columbus 4 San Jose 1 +0.3
Arizona 2 Philadelphia 4 +0.3
Pittsburgh 2 Anaheim 3 *-0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Edmonton vs Buffalo-0.2*-0.2*-0.1*-0.0+0.4+0.3
NY Islanders vs Anaheim+0.3*+0.0*+0.1*-0.3*+0.1-0.4
Vancouver vs Carolina-0.2*-0.3*-0.2*-0.0*+0.3+0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Dallas finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
121-162In99.7%100337*
1205517-8In98.4982125*
1195518-7In99.6100235*
1185418-8In98.29910285*
1175318-9In95.99910467*
1165319-8In95.49811668*
1155219-9In94.0972101,054*
1145220-8In90.096321,510*
1135120-9In86.893532,106*
1125020-10In80.7905403,012*
1115021-9In74.0877604,296*
1105022-8In65.781118005,750*
1094922-9In55.4751411007,692*
1084822-10In44.969171401010,047*
1074823-9In33.861201801013,088*
1064723-10In23.952242212016,961*
1054724-9In15.14227261400020,880*
1044624-10In7.93230303500025,981*
1034625-9In3.82431334801031,271*
1024525-10100.0%1.4163034712010037,552*
1014526-9100.00.51028321116130044,685*
1004426-10100.00.1624281620150051,051*
994427-9100.00.0319221925381058,876*
984327-1099.8No11516222661120066,654*
974328-999.5No0101023261016400073,329*
964228-1098.6No07522221520810081,155*
954229-996.3No0431817192312300087,016*
944129-1091.7No02114112224187100092,800*
934130-983.5No109622222312310096,727*
924030-1071.2No1063191726198200099,699*
914031-955.8No003115112525145100100,860*
903931-1039.3No002011720272110300100,864*
893932-925.2No010731426261661099,530*
883832-1014.0No000418202923113097,383*
873833-97.0No000214142628186193,186*
863733-103.1No00102821312510288,276*
853734-91.3No00101414283117481,909*
843634-100.5No000029233425774,618*
833635-90.2No000151733321267,966*
823535-100.1No000021229371960,584*
813536-90.0No0001724412653,328*
803436-100.0No000419413546,066*
793437-9OutNo00213404439,665*
783337-10OutNo019365433,170*
773338-9OutNo016326227,902*
763238-10OutNo003267022,787*
753239-9OutNo02217718,196*
743139-10OutNo01168214,456*
733140-9OutNo1128711,232*
723040-10OutNo009908,688*
713041-9OutNo07936,739*
702941-10OutNo05955,094*
692942-9OutNo03973,696*
682842-10OutNo2982,722*
672843-9OutNo2981,857*
662743-10OutNo1991,310*
652744-9OutNo1991,004*
642745-8OutNo0100619*
632544-11OutNo0100409*
622545-10OutNo0100287*
2-61OutNo100668*
Total:48.7%1.9%455667788889992,100,380

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday100.0*Lottery seed
Colorado 1 Dallas 2 -1.0
Chicago 1 Nashville 0 (so)*+0.1
St. Louis 3 NY Rangers 1 +0.0
SundayNone

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
123-162100
1225616-8973
1215617-7100
1205517-8982
1195518-71000
1185418-898110
1175318-996310
1165319-895211
1155219-9943210
1145220-890632
1135120-987653
1125020-108110540
1115021-9741370600
1105022-866151008000
1094922-9552013010000
1084822-104524161140010
1074823-93427191171010
1064723-102428222201120
1054724-91527243233140000
1044624-10824245255350000
1034625-94202282484080010
1024525-10114191121127011101000
1014526-90914141517111142103000
1004426-10059151018141173104000
994427-903514418164187307010
984327-1012121141671512601012000
974328-9019010121110169113340000
964228-100060581451713214670100
954229-900403414215145121111130000
944129-100021212011121081614462000
934130-9010190681441813101141000
924030-1001006034151169171310410000
914031-9000301213011421121510520000
903931-1000020110071187151712721000
893932-9010070301439161915831000
883832-1000000410814101721181141000
873833-900002104014101822191252000
863733-1000010020014101823211362000
853734-900101001410182422135100
843634-100000000141019252213510
833635-900000014122126211130
823535-1000000261424271971
813536-900000027182827143
803436-1000013112432237
793437-9001617323113
783337-10000311273821
773338-90016224130
763238-100003164041
753239-9002103751
743139-100163161
733140-90042670
723040-10022177
713041-9011683
702941-1001287
692942-90892
682842-100594
672843-90397
662743-10397
652744-9298
642745-8199
632544-110100
622545-10199
2-61100
Total:222323333434343533333444444444