Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances 2016-2017

Lost to Anaheim 2-3, playoff odds down 8.6 to 31%

0 points 0 2-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Pittsburgh 2 Anaheim 3	-5.2		-0.5		-0.6
St. Louis 3 NY Rangers 1	+0.3
Columbus 4 San Jose 1	-0.3				-0.0
Arizona 2 Philadelphia 4	-0.3
Tampa Bay 2 New Jersey 0					+0.0
Washington 3 NY Islanders 0					*+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Vancouver vs Carolina	+0.4-0.1-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.4				+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
NY Islanders vs Anaheim	-0.3-0.4-0.3+0.1*+0.3+0.5				-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Edmonton vs Buffalo	+0.2+0.0-0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

118	-160						In		99.5	%	100																385	*
117		55	18		-	7	In		92.0		98	1	1														138	*
116		54	18		-	8	In		95.4		98	1	1														219	*
115		53	18		-	9	In		93.8		96	3	1														337	*
114		53	19		-	8	In		89.7		96	1	3														522	*
113		52	19		-	9	In		86.6		94	3	3														786	*
112		51	19		-	10	In		82.3		92	4	3	0	0												1,132	*
111		51	20		-	9	In		73.5		89	5	6		0												1,640	*
110		51	21		-	8	In		65.3		83	8	9		0												2,441	*
109		50	21		-	9	In		55.3		77	11	11		0												3,286	*
108		49	21		-	10	In		46.4		71	14	13	0	1		0										4,579	*
107		49	22		-	9	In		33.3		62	18	19	0	1		0										6,296	*
106		48	22		-	10	In		23.0		52	22	23	1	2		0										8,171	*
105		48	23		-	9	In		15.2		43	25	27	1	4		0	0									10,786	*
104		47	23		-	10	In		7.7		32	28	31	2	6	0	0	0									14,081	*
103		47	24		-	9	100.0	%	3.9		23	29	33	5	9	0	1	0	0								17,468	*
102		46	24		-	10	In		1.4		15	29	33	8	13	0	2	0									22,095	*
101		46	25		-	9	100.0		0.4		9	26	32	12	17	1	3	0	0								27,284	*
100		45	25		-	10	100.0		0.1		5	22	27	17	22	2	5	1	0								32,797	*
99		45	26		-	9	99.9		0.0		2	18	20	21	24	4	9	2	0	0							39,017	*
98		44	26		-	10	99.7		No		1	13	13	23	26	8	13	3	0	0	0						45,802	*
97		44	27		-	9	98.8		No		0	9	8	23	23	13	18	6	1	0	0						53,300	*
96		43	27		-	10	96.8		No		0	5	4	20	18	18	21	10	3	0	0	0					61,069	*
95		43	28		-	9	92.2		No		0	3	1	16	12	21	22	16	6	2	0	0	0				68,751	*
94		42	28		-	10	83.5		No		0	2	0	11	7	23	20	21	12	4	1	0	0				75,894	*
93		42	29		-	9	69.7		No		0	1	0	7	3	20	15	23	18	9	3	1	0	0			82,139	*
92		41	29		-	10	52.8		No			0	0	4	1	16	10	21	23	15	7	2	0	0	0		87,657	*
91		41	30		-	9	34.7		No			0	0	2	0	11	5	16	24	22	13	5	1	0	0		93,415	*
90		40	30		-	10	20.3		No			0		1	0	7	2	10	20	25	20	10	3	1	0	0	97,230	*
89		40	31		-	9	10.1		No			0		1	0	4	1	5	14	24	25	17	8	2	0	0	101,007	*
88		39	31		-	10	4.5		No			0		0	0	2	0	2	8	18	26	24	14	5	1	0	101,401	*
87		39	32		-	9	1.8		No			0		0		1	0	1	3	11	22	28	21	10	2	0	100,716	*
86		38	32		-	10	0.7		No					0		0	0	0	1	6	16	26	27	17	5	1	99,116	*
85		38	33		-	9	0.2		No					0		0	0	0	0	3	9	21	30	24	10	2	96,766	*
84		37	33		-	10	0.1		No					0		0		0	0	1	5	15	27	30	18	4	91,839	*
83		37	34		-	9	0.0		No					0		0		0	0	0	2	9	23	33	25	8	86,192	*
82		36	34		-	10	0.0		No							0		0	0	0	1	5	16	32	33	13	80,223	*
81		36	35		-	9	0.0		No							0				0	0	2	10	28	39	20	73,483	*
80		35	35		-	10	Out		No											0	0	1	6	23	41	29	66,575	*
79		35	36		-	9	Out		No											0	0	0	3	17	41	38	58,965	*
78		34	36		-	10	Out		No												0	0	2	12	38	48	51,698	*
77		34	37		-	9	Out		No												0	0	1	7	34	58	44,482	*
76		33	37		-	10	Out		No													0	0	5	29	66	37,842	*
75		33	38		-	9	Out		No														0	3	24	74	31,481	*
74		32	38		-	10	Out		No														0	2	19	80	26,484	*
73		32	39		-	9	Out		No															1	14	85	21,286	*
72		31	39		-	10	Out		No														0	0	11	89	17,264	*
71		31	40		-	9	Out		No														0	0	8	92	13,700	*
70		30	40		-	10	Out		No															0	5	95	10,611	*
69		30	41		-	9	Out		No															0	4	96	8,179	*
68		29	41		-	10	Out		No															0	3	97	6,156	*
67		29	42		-	9	Out		No																1	99	4,612	*
66		28	42		-	10	Out		No																1	99	3,409	*
65		28	43		-	9	Out		No																1	99	2,428	*
64		27	43		-	10	Out		No																0	100	1,743	*
63		27	44		-	9	Out		No																0	100	1,251	*
62		27	45		-	8	Out		No																0	100	854	*
61		26	45		-	9	Out		No																0	100	578	*
0	-60						Out		No																	100	1,322	*

Total:							31.0	%	0.8	%	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	7	8	8	9	11	14	2,100,380

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 2 Anaheim 3	+1.1
Tampa Bay 2 New Jersey 0	-0.1
St. Louis 3 NY Rangers 1	-0.0
Columbus 4 San Jose 1	+0.0
Arizona 2 Philadelphia 4	+0.0
Washington 3 NY Islanders 0	*-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Vancouver vs Carolina	-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
NY Islanders vs Anaheim	+0.0+0.1+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

122	-160						100
121		56	15		-	9	92	8
119	-120						100
118		54	16		-	10	99	1
117		55	18		-	7	92	6	1		1
116		54	18		-	8	95	3	1		1
115		53	18		-	9	94	2	3		1
114		53	19		-	8	90	6	1		3
113		52	19		-	9	87	8	3		3
112		51	19		-	10	82	10	4		3		0		0
111		51	20		-	9	73	15	5		6				0
110		51	21		-	8	65	18	8	0	9				0
109		50	21		-	9	55	22	11	0	11	0			0
108		49	21		-	10	46	25	14	0	13	0	0		1				0
107		49	22		-	9	33	28	17	1	19	1	0		1				0
106		48	22		-	10	23	29	20	2	21	1	1		2				0
105		48	23		-	9	15	28	22	3	24	3	1		4	0			0		0
104		47	23		-	10	8	24	22	5	26	5	2		6	0	0		0		0
103		47	24		-	9	4	19	21	8	25	8	5	0	9	0	0		1	0	0		0
102		46	24		-	10	1	14	18	11	21	12	8	0	12	1	0		2		0
101		46	25		-	9	0	9	13	13	16	15	11	0	16	1	1		3	0	0		0
100		45	25		-	10	0	5	8	14	10	17	15	1	18	3	2		5	0	1		0
99		45	26		-	9	0	2	5	13	5	15	18	3	18	6	4	0	9	0	2		0	0
98		44	26		-	10		1	2	11	2	12	17	6	16	10	8	0	12	1	3	0	0	0	0
97		44	27		-	9		0	1	8	0	7	13	10	10	13	12	1	16	2	6	0	1	0	0
96		43	27		-	10		0	0	5	0	4	8	12	5	13	16	2	16	5	10	0	3	0	0	0
95		43	28		-	9		0	0	3	0	1	4	12	2	10	17	5	14	8	15	1	6	2	0	0	0
94		42	28		-	10		0	0	2		0	2	10	0	6	14	8	9	11	18	3	11	4	1	0	0
93		42	29		-	9		0	0	1		0	1	7	0	3	9	11	4	11	16	7	17	9	3	1	0	0	0
92		41	29		-	10				0		0	0	4	0	1	5	11	1	9	10	11	19	16	8	2	1	0	0
91		41	30		-	9				0		0	0	2	0	0	2	9	0	5	4	11	16	22	16	8	3	1	0	0
90		40	30		-	10				0			0	1		0	1	7	0	2	1	8	9	19	22	17	9	3	1	0	0	0
89		40	31		-	9				0			0	1		0	0	4	0	1	0	4	3	11	20	23	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
88		39	31		-	10				0				0		0	0	2		0	0	2	1	4	11	19	23	19	11	5	1	0	0	0
87		39	32		-	9				0				0			0	1		0	0	1	0	1	4	11	19	23	20	13	6	2	0	0	0
86		38	32		-	10								0			0	0		0		0	0	0	1	4	10	18	23	21	13	6	2	0	0	0
85		38	33		-	9								0				0		0		0		0	0	1	4	10	18	24	22	14	6	1	0	0
84		37	33		-	10								0				0				0		0	0	0	1	4	10	19	24	22	13	5	1	0
83		37	34		-	9								0				0				0			0	0	0	1	4	11	20	26	22	11	3	0
82		36	34		-	10												0				0				0	0	0	1	5	13	24	27	20	8	1
81		36	35		-	9												0									0	0	0	2	7	17	28	28	15	3
80		35	35		-	10																						0	0	1	3	10	23	31	24	7
79		35	36		-	9																							0	0	1	5	17	31	32	13
78		34	36		-	10																							0	0	0	2	10	27	38	22
77		34	37		-	9																							0	0	0	1	6	21	40	32
76		33	37		-	10																									0	0	3	15	40	42
75		33	38		-	9																										0	1	10	36	53
74		32	38		-	10																									0	0	1	6	31	62
73		32	39		-	9																										0	0	3	25	71
72		31	39		-	10																											0	2	20	78
71		31	40		-	9																											0	1	15	84
70		30	40		-	10																											0	1	11	88
69		30	41		-	9																												0	8	92
68		29	41		-	10																												0	6	94
67		29	42		-	9																												0	4	96
66		28	42		-	10																													2	98
65		28	43		-	9																													2	98
64		27	43		-	10																													1	99
63		27	44		-	9																													1	99
62		27	45		-	8																													0	100
61		26	45		-	9																													1	99
60		25	45		-	10																													0	100
59		25	46		-	9																													0	100
0	-58																																			100

Total:							1	1	1	2	1	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	2	2	3	2	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	7	8