Texas Stars Playoff Chances 2021-2022 50/50

Lost to Manitoba 1-2 (so), playoff odds down 0.7 to 34.3%

30 points 12 16-6

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Kilpatrick Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Manitoba 2 Texas 1 (so)	*No		-0.0

Monday	None

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Texas finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Kilpatrick		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

106		38	0		-	0	In		97.2	%	99	1															108
97		33	4		-	1	In		33.3		33	67															3	*
96		32	4		-	2	In		25.0		75	25															4
95		32	5		-	1	In		No		20	80															5
94		32	6		-	0	In		5.9		12	88															17	*
93		31	6		-	1	In		3.6		11	61	21	7													28	*
92		30	6		-	2	In		5.3		12	67	14	5	2												57	*
91		30	7		-	1	In		0.8		7	57	22	10	4												118	*
90		29	7		-	2	In		No		4	52	19	20	5	0											285	*
89		29	8		-	1	In		0.2		2	41	16	32	9	1											497	*
88		28	8		-	2	In		No		1	31	14	40	12	2											924	*
87		28	9		-	1	In		No		0	21	11	45	16	6	0	0									1,511	*
86		27	9		-	2	In		No		0	15	6	47	17	14	1										2,526	*
85		27	10		-	1	In		No		0	10	2	44	17	26	1	0									3,694	*
84		26	10		-	2	In		No			5	1	39	15	37	3	1	0								5,968	*
83		26	11		-	1	In		No			2	0	31	11	49	4	2	0								8,365	*
82		25	11		-	2	In		No			1	0	22	7	57	7	6	0	0							12,727	*
81		25	12		-	1	100.0	%	No			0	0	14	3	61	8	13	1	0			0				16,726	*
80		24	12		-	2	99.9		No			0		8	1	56	8	24	2	1			0				23,108	*
79		24	13		-	1	99.7		No			0		4	0	46	6	36	5	3			0				29,011	*
78		23	13		-	2	99.0		No					2	0	34	3	45	7	8			1	0			38,477	*
77		23	14		-	1	96.6		No					0	0	22	2	47	8	18			3	0			45,689	*
76		22	14		-	2	92.0		No					0		13	0	43	7	29			8	0			56,553	*
75		22	15		-	1	83.9		No					0		6	0	34	4	39			15	1			63,696	*
74		21	15		-	2	71.9		No					0		3	0	23	2	44			25	3	0		73,631	*
73		21	16		-	1	57.1		No							1	0	14	1	42			35	8	0		78,615	*
72		20	16		-	2	37.7		No							0		6	0	31			45	17	0	0	86,002	*
71		20	17		-	1	22.3		No							0		2	0	20			48	29	1	0	87,245	*
70		19	17		-	2	13.0		No							0		1	0	12			43	41	3	0	91,431	*
69		19	18		-	1	6.8		No									0	0	7			34	51	7	0	86,946	*
68		18	18		-	2	3.4		No									0		3			24	57	14	1	86,118	*
67		18	19		-	1	1.5		No									0		1			15	57	24	3	77,537	*
66		17	19		-	2	0.6		No									0		1			9	50	34	7	72,634	*
65		17	20		-	1	0.2		No											0			4	41	42	12	62,213	*
64		16	20		-	2	0.1		No											0			2	30	48	20	55,417	*
63		16	21		-	1	0.0		No											0			1	20	49	30	44,799	*
62		15	21		-	2	0.0		No											0			0	12	47	40	37,875	*
61		15	22		-	1	Out		No														0	7	42	51	29,097	*
60		14	22		-	2	Out		No														0	4	35	61	23,041	*
59		14	23		-	1	Out		No														0	2	27	71	16,679	*
58		13	23		-	2	Out		No															1	21	78	12,285	*
57		13	24		-	1	Out		No															0	14	86	8,347	*
56		12	24		-	2	Out		No															0	10	90	6,182	*
55		12	25		-	1	Out		No															0	6	93	3,970	*
54		11	25		-	2	Out		No																5	95	2,606	*
53		11	26		-	1	Out		No															0	4	96	1,534	*
52		10	26		-	2	Out		No																2	98	1,039	*
51		10	27		-	1	Out		No																2	98	559	*
50		9	27		-	2	Out		No																1	99	323	*
49		9	28		-	1	Out		No																1	99	176	*
48		8	28		-	2	Out		No																1	99	113	*
30	-47						Out		No																	100	185	*

Total:							34.3	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	1	0	7	1	10	1	14			19	24	14	9	1,356,696

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Manitoba 2 Texas 1 (so)	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Abbotsford vs Tucson	-0.0+0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

106		38	0		-	0	97	2	1
97		33	4		-	1	33		67
96		32	4		-	2	25	50	25
95		32	5		-	1		20	80
94		32	6		-	0	6	6	82	6
93		31	6		-	1	4	7	57	4	21		7
92		30	6		-	2	5	7	51	16	14		5		2
91		30	7		-	1	1	6	49	8	20	2	10		4
90		29	7		-	2		4	39	13	16	3	20		5		0
89		29	8		-	1	0	1	25	16	11	5	31	1	9		1
88		28	8		-	2		1	14	17	8	5	40	1	12	0	2
87		28	9		-	1		0	8	13	5	6	43	2	16	1	6		0		0
86		27	9		-	2		0	4	11	2	4	41	6	16	2	14	0	1
85		27	10		-	1		0	1	9	0	2	33	11	13	4	26	0	1	0	0
84		26	10		-	2			1	5		1	23	17	10	5	35	1	3	0	1		0
83		26	11		-	1			0	2		0	13	18	5	6	45	4	4	0	2		0
82		25	11		-	2			0	1		0	5	17	2	5	47	10	5	1	6	0	0	0	0
81		25	12		-	1				0		0	2	12	0	3	39	21	5	3	13	0	1	0	0					0
80		24	12		-	2				0			0	7	0	1	26	30	3	4	22	2	2	0	1					0
79		24	13		-	1				0			0	4	0	0	13	33	1	4	29	7	4	1	3	0				0
78		23	13		-	2							0	2		0	5	29	0	3	29	16	4	3	8	0				1	0
77		23	14		-	1								0		0	1	20	0	2	21	26	3	5	16	1				3	0	0
76		22	14		-	2								0			0	12	0	0	12	32	1	5	23	5				7	1	0
75		22	15		-	1								0			0	6		0	5	29	0	4	26	13				13	3	0	0
74		21	15		-	2								0			0	3		0	2	21	0	2	20	23				18	9	2	0	0
73		21	16		-	1											0	1		0	0	13	0	1	13	29				19	17	6	1	0	0
72		20	16		-	2												0			0	6		0	5	26				14	25	17	5	1	0	0
71		20	17		-	1												0			0	2		0	2	19				7	23	27	15	4	0	0
70		19	17		-	2												0			0	1		0	1	12				3	16	30	25	11	2	0	0
69		19	18		-	1																0		0	0	6				1	9	24	32	21	6	1	0
68		18	18		-	2																0			0	3				0	4	15	31	31	14	2	0
67		18	19		-	1																0			0	1				0	1	8	23	35	24	7	1
66		17	19		-	2																0				1				0	0	3	14	32	33	14	2
65		17	20		-	1																				0				0	0	1	7	25	37	24	5
64		16	20		-	2																				0					0	0	3	16	36	34	11
63		16	21		-	1																				0						0	1	9	30	41	19
62		15	21		-	2																				0						0	0	4	21	44	30
61		15	22		-	1																											0	2	14	43	41
60		14	22		-	2																											0	1	8	38	53
59		14	23		-	1																												0	4	31	65
58		13	23		-	2																												0	2	25	73
57		13	24		-	1																												0	1	17	82
56		12	24		-	2																												0	0	12	87
55		12	25		-	1																													0	8	92
54		11	25		-	2																														6	94
53		11	26		-	1																													0	5	95
52		10	26		-	2																														3	97
51		10	27		-	1																														2	98
50		9	27		-	2																														1	99
49		9	28		-	1																														1	99
48		8	28		-	2																														1	99
30	-47																																				100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	4	0	0	4	7	0	1	5	8				5	7	8	10	10	10	9	7