SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Holding my newborn
4 a.m.

Vancouver Canucks Playoff Chances 2013

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.08 to 67.3%

11 points 5 3-1 0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Edmonton 7 Vancouver 8 (ot)	+6.3		+0.8		+0.6
Colorado 6 Edmonton 9	-0.5				-0.1
Colorado 1 Dallas 0	+0.3
Detroit 2 Calgary 5	-0.3		+0.1		-0.0
Columbus 1 Los Angeles 2 (so)	*-0.3
Columbus 2 Detroit 5	+0.2
San Jose 2 Chicago 0	+0.2		-0.1
Anaheim 6 Los Angeles 2	+0.2
San Jose 4 Nashville 3	+0.2
St. Louis 2 Nashville 0	*-0.1
Calgary 4 Chicago 1					-0.0
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 0			+0.1
Philadelphia 1 Tampa Bay 5			+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Minnesota vs Vancouver	-6.2-0.6-0.6+5.1+5.8+6.4		-1.0-0.3-0.2+0.8+1.0+1.0		-0.6-0.1-0.1+0.5+0.6+0.7
Edmonton vs Dallas	-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.3*-0.1+0.5				-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1
St. Louis vs Detroit	+0.0-0.6-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.2
Columbus vs Calgary	+0.2-0.3-0.4-0.3-0.5+0.1				+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0
Nashville vs Los Angeles	+0.1-0.2-0.5-0.1-0.5*+0.1
Phoenix vs Chicago	+0.1-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.3+0.1
Colorado vs Anaheim			+0.2+0.1*+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1
Dallas vs Anaheim			+0.2+0.1+0.1*-0.1-0.1-0.2
Montreal vs Boston			-0.1-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Washington			-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1
Buffalo vs Montreal			+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Ottawa vs Carolina			-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0+0.1
Winnipeg vs Florida			+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Vancouver finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

78	-89								In		Yes		100															313	*
77		31	4		-	4	0		In		99.2	%	99	1														127	*
76		31	5		-	3	0		In		98.9		100	0														275	*
75		30	5		-	4	0		In		97.2		98	2														539	*
74		30	6		-	3	0		In		96.6		98	2														966	*
73		29	6		-	4	0		In		92.5		95	5		0												1,909	*
72		29	7		-	3	0		In		88.8		93	7		0												3,364	*
71		28	7		-	4	0		In		82.6		90	10	0	0												5,705	*
70		28	8		-	3	0		In		74.9		85	15	0	0												9,284	*
69		27	8		-	4	0		In		63.7		78	21	0	0												14,391	*
68		27	9		-	3	0		In		51.7		70	28	1	1	0											21,578	*
67		26	9		-	4	0		In		37.5		60	37	2	2	0											31,271	*
66		26	10		-	3	0		In		24.7		48	45	4	3	0											43,619	*
65		25	10		-	4	0		In		14.2		37	51	8	4	0	0										59,268	*
64		24	10		-	5	0		In		6.7		25	54	13	7	1	0										76,514	*
63		24	11		-	4	0		In		2.3		15	52	21	9	2	0										96,106	*
62		23	11		-	5	0		In		0.6		8	45	30	12	5	0	0									118,286	*
61		23	12		-	4	0		In		0.1		3	34	38	14	9	1	0	0								139,726	*
60		22	12		-	5	0		In		0.0		1	22	44	13	15	4	0	0								159,008	*
59		22	13		-	4	0		100.0	%	0.0		0	12	45	11	20	10	2	0	0							177,361	*
58		21	13		-	5	0		99.9		No		0	5	41	7	21	18	7	1	0	0						70,731
		22	14		-	3	0		99.9		No		0	5	41	7	21	18	7	1	0	0						119,621	*
57		21	14		-	4	0		99.3		No		0	2	34	3	16	24	15	5	1	0	0					198,396	*
56		20	14		-	5	0		96.3		No			0	25	1	8	23	25	13	3	0	0					75,454
		21	15		-	3	0		96.4		No			1	26	1	9	23	25	13	3	0	0					126,616	*
55		20	15		-	4	0		88.5		No			0	18	0	3	16	28	23	10	2	0	0				77,147
		19	14		-	6	0		86.1		No			0	17	0	3	14	27	25	11	2	0	0				120,167	*
54		19	15		-	5	0		67.8		No			0	11	0	1	6	20	30	22	8	1	0	0			189,001	*
53		19	16		-	4	0		42.4		No			0	6	0	0	2	9	25	31	20	6	1	0	0		176,021	*
52		18	16		-	5	0		20.3		No				3		0	0	3	14	29	30	16	4	0	0		159,057	*
51		18	17		-	4	0		7.2		No				2		0	0	1	5	18	33	28	11	2	0	0	138,277	*
50		17	17		-	5	0		2.1		No				1			0	0	1	8	24	34	24	7	1	0	118,057	*
49		17	18		-	4	0		0.5		No				0				0	0	3	13	31	34	16	3	0	97,295	*
48		16	18		-	5	0		0.1		No				0				0	0	1	5	21	37	28	8	1	77,555	*
47		16	19		-	4	0		0.0		No				0					0	0	2	11	32	37	16	2	60,678	*
46		15	19		-	5	0		0.0		No				0						0	0	5	22	40	27	5	45,972	*
45		15	20		-	4	0		Out		No											0	2	13	37	38	11	34,077	*
44		14	20		-	5	0		Out		No											0	1	6	30	45	18	24,202	*
43		14	21		-	4	0		Out		No										0		0	3	21	48	27	16,630	*
42		13	21		-	5	0		Out		No												0	1	13	46	39	11,001	*
41		13	22		-	4	0		Out		No													0	8	40	51	7,329	*
40		12	22		-	5	0		Out		No													0	4	34	62	4,664	*
39		12	23		-	4	0		Out		No													0	2	27	71	2,833	*
38		12	24		-	3	0		Out		No														1	21	78	1,655	*
37		11	24		-	4	0		Out		No														1	14	85	1,024	*
36		10	24		-	5	0		Out		No														1	12	88	537	*
35		10	25		-	4	0		Out		No														1	7	92	308	*
34		10	26		-	3	0		Out		No															2	98	163	*
33		9	26		-	4	0		Out		No															6	94	69	*
11	-32								Out		No																100	313	*

Total:									67.3	%	2.7	%	5	12	19	4	6	7	7	7	7	7	6	5	4	3	1	2,914,460

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Edmonton 7 Vancouver 8 (ot)	-1.3
Colorado 6 Edmonton 9	+0.1
Detroit 2 Calgary 5	+0.1
Calgary 4 Chicago 1	+0.0
Columbus 2 Detroit 5	-0.0
Anaheim 6 Los Angeles 2	-0.0
Tampa Bay 5 NY Rangers 3	*-0.0
San Jose 4 Nashville 3	-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Minnesota vs Vancouver	+1.3+0.2+0.2-1.0-1.2-1.3
Columbus vs Calgary	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Edmonton vs Dallas	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1
St. Louis vs Detroit	-0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0
Nashville vs Los Angeles	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

78	-89								100
77		31	4		-	4	0		99		1
76		31	5		-	3	0		99	1	0
75		30	5		-	4	0		97	1	2
74		30	6		-	3	0		97	1	2
73		29	6		-	4	0		93	3	5				0
72		29	7		-	3	0		89	4	7				0
71		28	7		-	4	0		83	7	10		0		0
70		28	8		-	3	0		75	10	15	0	0		0
69		27	8		-	4	0		64	14	21	0	0		0
68		27	9		-	3	0		52	18	28	0	1		1	0	0
67		26	9		-	4	0		38	22	35	2	2	0	2	0	0
66		26	10		-	3	0		25	24	41	4	4	0	3	0	0
65		25	10		-	4	0		14	23	44	7	8	0	4	0	0		0
64		24	10		-	5	0		7	18	40	13	13	0	6	1	1	0	0
63		24	11		-	4	0		2	13	32	20	20	1	8	2	2	0	0
62		23	11		-	5	0		1	7	21	24	27	3	9	3	4	0	0		0
61		23	12		-	4	0		0	3	11	23	31	8	8	6	8	1	1	0	0		0
60		22	12		-	5	0		0	1	4	18	30	14	6	8	12	3	4	0	0	0	0
59		22	13		-	4	0		0	0	1	11	24	21	3	8	13	7	9	1	2	0	0		0
58		21	13		-	5	0			0	0	5	16	26	1	6	10	11	15	3	6	0	1	0	0	0
57		21	14		-	4	0			0	0	2	8	26	0	3	4	12	15	9	14	2	4	0	1	0	0
56		20	14		-	5	0				0	1	4	22	0	1	1	8	9	14	18	7	12	1	3	0	0	0
55		20	15		-	4	0					0	1	18	0	0	0	4	3	13	14	14	18	4	8	2	0	0	0
		19	14		-	6	0					0	1	15		0	0	2	2	10	12	15	20	6	12	4	0	0	0
54		19	15		-	5	0					0	0	11		0	0	1	0	6	5	15	17	13	19	10	3	1	0	0	0	0
53		19	16		-	4	0					0	0	6		0		0	0	2	1	9	8	17	19	20	12	5	1	0	0	0	0
52		18	16		-	5	0						0	3				0	0	0	0	3	2	12	11	21	22	15	8	3	1	0	0
51		18	17		-	4	0						0	2				0		0	0	1	0	5	3	11	20	23	19	11	4	1	0	0	0	0
50		17	17		-	5	0							1						0		0	0	1	1	3	9	17	23	22	14	7	2	0	0	0
49		17	18		-	4	0							0								0		0	0	0	2	7	15	23	23	17	8	3	0	0	0
48		16	18		-	5	0							0								0		0	0	0	0	2	6	13	22	25	19	10	3	1	0	0
47		16	19		-	4	0							0										0			0	0	1	5	13	23	26	20	10	3	0	0
46		15	19		-	5	0							0														0	0	1	5	13	24	27	20	8	2	0
45		15	20		-	4	0																						0	0	1	5	15	26	28	17	6	1
44		14	20		-	5	0																							0	0	2	7	18	29	28	13	3
43		14	21		-	4	0																						0	0	0	0	2	10	24	33	23	7
42		13	21		-	5	0																									0	1	4	16	32	33	14
41		13	22		-	4	0																									0	0	2	8	26	40	23
40		12	22		-	5	0																											0	4	20	41	35
39		12	23		-	4	0																											0	2	12	39	47
38		12	24		-	3	0																												1	7	33	58
37		11	24		-	4	0																												0	3	27	70
36		10	24		-	5	0																													1	18	80
35		10	25		-	4	0																												1	2	14	83
34		10	26		-	3	0																														7	93
33		9	26		-	4	0																														12	88
32		8	26		-	5	0																														11	89
31		7	26		-	6	0																														5	95
11	-30																																					100

Total:									3	3	6	5	9	10	2	2	3	3	4	3	4	3	4	3	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	0