SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

St. Louis Blues Playoff Chances 2013

Beat Nashville 2-0, playoff odds up 10.9 to 59.6%

11 points 4 2-3 0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
St. Louis 2 Nashville 0	+5.7		+0.4		+0.5
Edmonton 7 Vancouver 8 (ot)	-0.5
Colorado 6 Edmonton 9	-0.4
San Jose 2 Chicago 0	+0.3
Anaheim 6 Los Angeles 2	+0.3				+0.0
Colorado 1 Dallas 0	+0.2
Columbus 2 Detroit 5	+0.2
Calgary 4 Chicago 1	+0.2
Detroit 2 Calgary 5	-0.2		+0.1
Columbus 1 Los Angeles 2 (so)	*+0.1
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 0			+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
St. Louis vs Detroit	+5.4+5.1+4.3-1.8-2.2-8.0		+0.6+0.5+0.4-0.4-0.3-0.8		+0.5+0.5+0.4-0.2-0.2-0.8
Nashville vs Los Angeles	*+0.1-0.6-0.4-0.5-0.7+0.2				-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1
Minnesota vs Vancouver	+0.0-0.6-0.4-0.0*-0.3+0.2
Edmonton vs Dallas	-0.2-0.4-0.3+0.3-0.0+0.4
Phoenix vs Chicago	+0.1-0.4-0.3-0.4-0.6*+0.1				+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
Columbus vs Calgary	+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.4+0.2
Colorado vs Anaheim			+0.2+0.0+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1
Dallas vs Anaheim			+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Montreal vs Boston			-0.0-0.1-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Washington			-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Buffalo vs Montreal			+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the St. Louis finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

76	-89								In		99.8	%	100															460	*
75		30	5		-	4	0		In		97.8		99	1														320	*
74		30	6		-	3	0		In		95.8		98	2														592	*
73		29	6		-	4	0		In		92.9		96	3	0	1												1,068	*
72		29	7		-	3	0		In		90.2		95	5		0												2,048	*
71		28	7		-	4	0		In		83.2		91	8		1												3,480	*
70		28	8		-	3	0		In		75.9		86	12	0	2												6,007	*
69		27	8		-	4	0		In		64.6		80	17	0	3	0											9,588	*
68		27	9		-	3	0		In		52.1		72	23	0	5	0											14,583	*
67		26	9		-	4	0		In		37.7		61	30	1	7	0											22,115	*
66		25	9		-	5	0		In		24.4		49	38	2	10	1	0										31,674	*
65		25	10		-	4	0		In		13.6		37	42	4	15	2	0										43,783	*
64		24	10		-	5	0		In		6.3		25	45	7	20	3	0	0									58,885	*
63		24	11		-	4	0		In		2.1		14	43	11	25	7	0	0									76,695	*
62		23	11		-	5	0		In		0.5		7	36	14	28	13	2	0	0								97,279	*
61		23	12		-	4	0		In		0.1		3	26	17	28	21	4	0	0								117,688	*
60		22	12		-	5	0		100.0	%	0.0		1	16	18	24	30	10	1	0	0							138,709	*
59		22	13		-	4	0		100.0		0.0		0	8	17	16	34	20	4	0	0	0						159,318	*
58		21	13		-	5	0		99.9		No		0	4	13	9	31	30	12	2	0	0						176,831	*
57		21	14		-	4	0		99.2		No		0	1	10	4	23	35	21	6	1	0	0					107,043	*
		20	13		-	6	0		98.6		No			1	8	3	18	34	26	9	1	0	0					83,440	*
56		20	14		-	5	0		94.3		No			0	5	1	9	27	34	19	5	1	0	0				113,466	*
		21	15		-	3	0		95.7		No			0	6	1	12	30	31	16	4	0	0					86,133	*
55		20	15		-	4	0		83.4		No			0	3	0	3	16	32	29	13	3	0	0	0			201,826	*
54		19	15		-	5	0		59.1		No			0	1	0	1	5	20	33	27	11	2	0	0	0		113,354	*
		20	16		-	3	0		65.3		No			0	1	0	1	7	23	33	24	9	2	0	0			84,901	*
53		19	16		-	4	0		38.4		No			0	0		0	2	10	26	33	21	6	1	0	0		71,670
		18	15		-	6	0		34.6		No				0		0	1	9	24	33	23	8	1	0	0		117,148	*
52		18	16		-	5	0		16.1		No				0		0	0	3	13	29	32	18	5	1	0		175,578	*
51		18	17		-	4	0		5.1		No				0			0	1	5	17	32	30	13	3	0	0	158,296	*
50		17	17		-	5	0		1.2		No				0			0	0	1	7	23	35	25	8	1	0	138,267	*
49		17	18		-	4	0		0.2		No				0			0	0	0	2	12	30	35	18	3	0	117,273	*
48		16	18		-	5	0		0.0		No				0					0	0	5	20	36	29	9	1	96,992	*
47		16	19		-	4	0		0.0		No									0	0	1	10	30	38	18	2	78,113	*
46		15	19		-	5	0		Out		No										0	0	4	21	41	28	5	60,621	*
45		15	20		-	4	0		Out		No											0	2	12	37	39	11	45,598	*
44		14	20		-	5	0		Out		No											0	0	6	29	46	19	33,479	*
43		14	21		-	4	0		Out		No											0	0	3	20	48	29	24,187	*
42		13	21		-	5	0		Out		No												0	1	13	46	40	16,513	*
41		13	22		-	4	0		Out		No												0	0	7	40	52	11,236	*
40		12	22		-	5	0		Out		No													0	4	34	62	7,182	*
39		12	23		-	4	0		Out		No													0	2	26	72	4,474	*
38		11	23		-	5	0		Out		No														1	19	80	2,791	*
37		11	24		-	4	0		Out		No														0	14	86	1,554	*
36		10	24		-	5	0		Out		No														0	10	90	906	*
35		10	25		-	4	0		Out		No														0	4	96	520	*
34		9	25		-	5	0		Out		No															2	98	270	*
33		9	26		-	4	0		Out		No															2	98	130	*
32		9	27		-	3	0		Out		No															3	97	70	*
11	-31								Out		No																100	306	*

Total:									59.6	%	1.8	%	4	7	6	6	9	9	9	9	8	8	7	6	5	4	2	2,914,460

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
St. Louis 2 Nashville 0	-1.0
Detroit 2 Calgary 5	-0.0
Edmonton 7 Vancouver 8 (ot)	+0.0
San Jose 2 Chicago 0	-0.0
Calgary 4 Chicago 1	-0.0
San Jose 4 Nashville 3	-0.0
Anaheim 6 Los Angeles 2	-0.0
Tampa Bay 5 NY Rangers 3	*-0.0
Columbus 1 Los Angeles 2 (so)	-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
St. Louis vs Detroit	-1.0-0.9-0.8+0.4+0.4+1.5
Nashville vs Los Angeles	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.1
Phoenix vs Chicago	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Columbus vs Calgary	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1
Minnesota vs Vancouver	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

77	-89								100
76		31	5		-	3	0		99	1
75		30	5		-	4	0		98	1	1
74		30	6		-	3	0		96	2	2
73		29	6		-	4	0		93	3	3		0		1
72		29	7		-	3	0		90	5	5				0
71		28	7		-	4	0		83	8	8				1
70		28	8		-	3	0		76	10	12	0	0		2
69		27	8		-	4	0		65	15	17	0	0		3		0
68		27	9		-	3	0		52	20	23	0	0		5	0	0
67		26	9		-	4	0		38	24	29	1	1		7	0	0
66		25	9		-	5	0		24	25	34	3	2	0	10	0	1		0
65		25	10		-	4	0		14	23	35	7	4	0	15	1	1	0	0
64		24	10		-	5	0		6	19	33	12	6	0	18	2	3	0	0		0
63		24	11		-	4	0		2	12	26	17	10	1	20	5	7	0	0		0
62		23	11		-	5	0		0	7	16	20	13	2	19	8	12	0	2	0	0		0
61		23	12		-	4	0		0	3	8	19	14	4	15	12	19	2	4	0	0		0
60		22	12		-	5	0		0	1	3	14	12	6	9	14	24	6	10	0	1	0	0		0
59		22	13		-	4	0		0	0	1	8	9	8	4	13	22	12	18	2	4	0	0		0	0
58		21	13		-	5	0			0	0	3	5	9	1	8	13	17	24	6	11	1	2	0	0	0
57		21	14		-	4	0			0	0	1	2	8	0	4	6	17	21	13	18	3	6	0	1	0	0
		20	13		-	6	0				0	1	2	6	0	3	4	14	19	15	22	4	8	0	1	0	0
56		20	14		-	5	0				0	0	1	5	0	1	1	9	10	18	22	10	16	2	4	1	0	0
55		20	15		-	4	0					0	0	3		0	0	3	3	14	15	18	22	7	11	3	0	0	0
		19	14		-	6	0					0	0	2		0	0	3	2	13	13	18	22	8	13	4	1	0	0
54		19	15		-	5	0					0	0	1		0	0	0	0	5	4	15	16	16	22	14	5	1	0	0	0	0
		20	16		-	3	0					0	0	1		0	0	1	0	8	6	18	18	15	19	9	3	1	0	0
53		19	16		-	4	0					0	0	0				0	0	1	1	8	7	18	19	22	14	6	2	0	0	0	0
52		18	16		-	5	0						0	0				0		0	0	3	1	11	10	20	23	17	9	4	1	0	0	0
51		18	17		-	4	0							0						0	0	1	0	4	3	9	18	23	21	13	6	2	0	0	0
50		17	17		-	5	0							0						0		0	0	1	0	2	7	16	23	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
49		17	18		-	4	0							0						0		0	0	0	0	0	2	6	14	22	24	19	10	3	1	0	0
48		16	18		-	5	0							0										0		0	0	1	5	12	21	25	20	11	4	1	0	0
47		16	19		-	4	0																	0		0	0	0	1	4	11	21	26	22	11	3	1	0
46		15	19		-	5	0																			0		0	0	1	4	12	22	28	22	9	2	0
45		15	20		-	4	0																					0	0	0	1	5	13	25	29	19	7	1
44		14	20		-	5	0																						0	0	0	1	6	17	29	29	14	3
43		14	21		-	4	0																							0	0	0	2	9	23	33	25	7
42		13	21		-	5	0																							0	0	0	1	4	15	32	34	15
41		13	22		-	4	0																										0	1	8	26	41	24
40		12	22		-	5	0																										0	0	4	18	41	37
39		12	23		-	4	0																											0	2	11	39	48
38		11	23		-	5	0																												1	6	32	61
37		11	24		-	4	0																												0	3	25	72
36		10	24		-	5	0																													2	19	79
35		10	25		-	4	0																													1	11	88
34		9	25		-	5	0																														7	93
33		9	26		-	4	0																														5	95
32		9	27		-	3	0																														3	97
11	-31																																					100

Total:									2	2	4	4	3	3	3	3	5	4	5	4	5	4	5	4	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1	1