SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Columbus Blue Jackets Playoff Chances 2013

Lost to Los Angeles 1-2 (so), playoff odds down 2.8 to 54%

12 points 5 3-2 0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Columbus 2 Detroit 5	-7.1		-1.7		-0.7
Columbus 1 Los Angeles 2 (so)	-2.9		-0.3		-0.2
Edmonton 7 Vancouver 8 (ot)	*-0.4
Colorado 1 Dallas 0	+0.4
San Jose 2 Chicago 0	+0.3
Calgary 4 Chicago 1	+0.3		+0.1		+0.1
Anaheim 6 Los Angeles 2	+0.2		*-0.1
Colorado 6 Edmonton 9	-0.2
Detroit 2 Calgary 5	-0.2		+0.1
St. Louis 2 Nashville 0	*-0.1
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 0			+0.1
Montreal 4 Buffalo 2			+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Columbus vs Calgary	+5.8+5.3+4.2-1.9-2.0-8.2		+0.4+0.3+0.3-0.2-0.2-0.6		+0.5+0.5+0.4-0.2-0.2-0.7
Edmonton vs Dallas	-0.2-0.5-0.3+0.2*+0.0+0.5
St. Louis vs Detroit	-0.0-0.6-0.6-0.2*-0.3+0.3
Nashville vs Los Angeles	+0.0-0.2-0.3-0.2-0.4+0.2
Minnesota vs Vancouver	+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.1+0.1
Dallas vs Anaheim			+0.1+0.0+0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.1
Colorado vs Anaheim			+0.1-0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Washington			-0.0-0.0-0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Columbus finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

76	-88								In		Yes		100															335	*
75		30	5		-	3	0		In		97.8	%	99	1														134	*
74		29	5		-	4	0		In		97.1		98	1		0												276	*
73		29	6		-	3	0		In		94.8		97	3														518	*
72		28	6		-	4	0		In		89.3		94	6		0												1,056	*
71		28	7		-	3	0		In		83.1		91	8		1												1,974	*
70		27	7		-	4	0		In		76.1		88	11		1												3,400	*
69		27	8		-	3	0		In		67.3		82	16	0	2	0											5,750	*
68		26	8		-	4	0		In		53.5		73	23	0	4	0											9,315	*
67		26	9		-	3	0		In		39.0		63	29	1	6	0											14,587	*
66		25	9		-	4	0		In		26.3		51	37	2	10	0											21,600	*
65		24	9		-	5	0		In		14.4		38	43	4	14	1	0										31,441	*
64		24	10		-	4	0		In		6.7		26	46	6	19	3	0	0									44,466	*
63		23	10		-	5	0		In		2.5		16	43	10	24	6	0	0									59,620	*
62		23	11		-	4	0		In		0.6		8	37	14	28	12	1	0									77,639	*
61		22	11		-	5	0		In		0.1		3	28	17	28	20	4	0	0								98,826	*
60		22	12		-	4	0		100.0	%	0.0		1	17	18	24	28	9	1	0	0							119,332	*
59		21	12		-	5	0		100.0		0.0		0	9	17	17	34	19	4	0	0	0						140,575	*
58		21	13		-	4	0		99.9		No		0	4	14	9	31	29	11	2	0	0						161,215	*
57		20	13		-	5	0		98.8		No			1	9	3	20	34	24	7	1	0	0					101,007	*
		21	14		-	3	0		99.2		No		0	2	10	5	23	34	20	6	1	0						78,244	*
56		20	14		-	4	0		95.4		No			0	5	1	11	29	32	17	4	0	0					193,524	*
55		19	14		-	5	0		84.3		No			0	3	0	3	17	33	29	13	3	0	0				75,573
		20	15		-	3	0		84.3		No			0	3	0	4	17	32	28	13	3	0	0				125,744	*
54		19	15		-	4	0		67.1		No			0	1	0	1	8	24	33	23	8	1	0	0	0		121,611	*
		18	14		-	6	0		58.3		No			0	1	0	0	5	19	33	28	12	2	0	0			82,058	*
53		18	15		-	5	0		37.8		No			0	0	0	0	2	10	26	33	21	7	1	0	0		199,406	*
52		18	16		-	4	0		19.8		No				0		0	0	4	16	31	31	15	3	0	0		107,648	*
		17	15		-	6	0		13.0		No				0		0	0	2	11	27	34	20	6	1	0		82,332	*
51		17	16		-	5	0		5.5		No				0	0		0	1	5	18	32	29	12	2	0	0	176,128	*
50		17	17		-	4	0		1.3		No				0			0	0	1	8	24	35	24	7	1	0	157,905	*
49		16	17		-	5	0		0.3		No				0				0	0	2	13	31	34	16	3	0	137,592	*
48		16	18		-	4	0		0.0		No								0	0	1	5	21	37	28	8	1	116,040	*
47		15	18		-	5	0		0.0		No									0	0	2	11	32	37	16	2	94,979	*
46		15	19		-	4	0		Out		No										0	0	5	22	41	27	5	75,425	*
45		14	19		-	5	0		Out		No										0	0	2	13	38	37	10	58,436	*
44		14	20		-	4	0		Out		No											0	1	7	31	45	17	43,694	*
43		13	20		-	5	0		Out		No											0	0	3	23	47	27	31,594	*
42		13	21		-	4	0		Out		No											0	0	1	15	47	37	22,287	*
41		12	21		-	5	0		Out		No												0	0	9	43	48	15,314	*
40		12	22		-	4	0		Out		No													0	5	37	58	9,940	*
39		11	22		-	5	0		Out		No													0	3	30	67	6,414	*
38		11	23		-	4	0		Out		No														2	23	75	4,019	*
37		10	23		-	5	0		Out		No														1	17	82	2,283	*
36		10	24		-	4	0		Out		No														0	13	87	1,378	*
35		9	24		-	5	0		Out		No														0	9	91	772	*
34		9	25		-	4	0		Out		No															6	94	382	*
33		9	26		-	3	0		Out		No															3	97	215	*
32		8	26		-	4	0		Out		No															3	97	114	*
12	-31								Out		No																100	343	*

Total:									54.0	%	1.2	%	3	6	5	5	8	9	9	9	9	9	8	8	6	4	2	2,914,460

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Columbus 2 Detroit 5	+1.4
Columbus 1 Los Angeles 2 (so)	+0.5
Calgary 4 Chicago 1	-0.1
San Jose 4 Nashville 3	-0.1
Detroit 2 Calgary 5	-0.1
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 4 (ot)	*+0.1
San Jose 2 Chicago 0	-0.0
St. Louis 2 Nashville 0	-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Columbus vs Calgary	-1.0-0.9-0.8+0.3+0.3+1.5
Nashville vs Los Angeles	+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.1
St. Louis vs Detroit	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0
Edmonton vs Dallas	+0.0+0.1+0.0*-0.0+0.0-0.0
Phoenix vs Chicago	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Montreal vs Boston	-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.1+0.0
Ottawa vs Carolina	-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0
Minnesota vs Vancouver	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

76	-88								100
75		30	5		-	3	0		98	1	1
74		29	5		-	4	0		97	1	1				0
73		29	6		-	3	0		95	2	3
72		28	6		-	4	0		89	5	6				0
71		28	7		-	3	0		83	8	8				1
70		27	7		-	4	0		76	12	11	0			1
69		27	8		-	3	0		67	15	15	0	0		2		0
68		26	8		-	4	0		54	20	22	1	0		4	0	0
67		26	9		-	3	0		39	24	28	1	1		6	0	0
66		25	9		-	4	0		26	25	34	3	2	0	9	0	0	0
65		24	9		-	5	0		14	24	36	7	4	0	14	1	1		0
64		24	10		-	4	0		7	19	34	12	6	0	17	2	3	0	0		0
63		23	10		-	5	0		2	13	27	17	9	1	20	4	6	0	0		0
62		23	11		-	4	0		1	7	17	20	12	2	20	8	12	0	1	0	0
61		22	11		-	5	0		0	3	8	19	13	4	16	12	18	2	4	0	0		0
60		22	12		-	4	0		0	1	3	14	12	6	10	14	23	5	9	0	1	0	0		0
59		21	12		-	5	0		0	0	1	8	9	8	4	13	22	11	17	1	4	0	0	0	0	0
58		21	13		-	4	0			0	0	4	5	9	1	8	14	17	23	6	11	0	2	0	0	0
57		20	13		-	5	0				0	1	2	7	0	3	5	15	20	14	21	3	7	0	1	0	0
		21	14		-	3	0			0	0	2	2	7	0	4	6	17	21	13	18	2	5	0	1	0
56		20	14		-	4	0				0	0	1	5	0	1	1	9	11	18	23	10	15	1	4	1	0
55		19	14		-	5	0				0	0	0	3		0	0	3	3	14	15	18	22	7	12	3	0	0	0
		20	15		-	3	0					0	0	3		0	0	4	3	14	15	17	22	7	12	3	1	0	0
54		19	15		-	4	0					0	0	1		0	0	1	1	7	6	18	19	15	19	9	3	1	0	0	0
		18	14		-	6	0					0	0	1		0	0	1	0	5	4	15	17	16	22	14	5	1	0	0	0
53		18	15		-	5	0					0	0	0		0		0	0	2	1	9	7	18	20	21	13	6	2	0	0	0	0
52		18	16		-	4	0						0	0				0	0	0	0	3	2	12	11	20	23	17	8	3	1	0	0	0
51		17	16		-	5	0							0		0				0	0	1	0	5	3	10	19	23	20	12	5	1	0	0	0
50		17	17		-	4	0							0						0		0	0	1	0	3	8	17	23	22	15	7	2	0	0	0
49		16	17		-	5	0							0								0		0	0	0	2	6	14	22	24	18	9	3	1	0	0
48		16	18		-	4	0															0		0	0	0	0	1	5	13	22	25	20	10	3	1	0	0
47		15	18		-	5	0																	0		0	0	0	1	5	12	22	26	20	10	3	0	0
46		15	19		-	4	0																				0	0	0	1	5	13	23	27	20	8	2	0
45		14	19		-	5	0																					0	0	0	1	5	14	26	28	18	6	1
44		14	20		-	4	0																							0	0	2	7	18	30	27	13	3
43		13	20		-	5	0																								0	0	2	10	24	33	23	6
42		13	21		-	4	0																								0	0	1	4	17	32	33	13
41		12	21		-	5	0																										0	2	9	27	40	22
40		12	22		-	4	0																										0	0	5	20	42	33
39		11	22		-	5	0																											0	2	13	39	46
38		11	23		-	4	0																										0	0	1	8	34	58
37		10	23		-	5	0																												0	4	27	68
36		10	24		-	4	0																													2	22	76
35		9	24		-	5	0																													1	19	80
34		9	25		-	4	0																													1	8	91
33		9	26		-	3	0																														7	93
32		8	26		-	4	0																														5	95
31		8	27		-	3	0																														2	98
12	-30																																					100

Total:									1	2	3	3	3	2	3	3	4	4	5	4	5	4	5	4	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	1	1