Los Angeles Kings Playoff Chances 2013

Beat Columbus 2-1 (so), playoff odds up 2.8 to 25.2%

8 points 4 4-0 0

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Anaheim 6 Los Angeles 2	-5.5		-0.2		-0.5
Columbus 1 Los Angeles 2 (so)	+4.5		+0.1		+0.4
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 4 (ot)	+0.5
Colorado 6 Edmonton 9	-0.3
Calgary 4 Chicago 1	+0.2
San Jose 2 Chicago 0	+0.2
Colorado 1 Dallas 0	+0.2
Edmonton 7 Vancouver 8 (ot)	*-0.1
San Jose 4 Nashville 3	*+0.1
Detroit 2 Calgary 5	*-0.1
St. Louis 2 Nashville 0	*-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Nashville vs Los Angeles	-4.9*-0.2-0.3+5.0+5.8+6.3		-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1		-0.5-0.0-0.0+0.5+0.5+0.6
Columbus vs Calgary	+0.0-0.4-0.3-0.4*-0.3+0.2
Minnesota vs Vancouver	+0.1-0.4-0.2*-0.2-0.4+0.1
St. Louis vs Detroit	-0.0-0.2-0.4-0.2-0.0+0.2
Edmonton vs Dallas	-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Los Angeles finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

76	-88								In		Yes		100															249	*
75		32	5		-	3	0		In		91.7	%	92			8												12	*
74		31	5		-	4	0		In		Yes		100															15	*
73		31	6		-	3	0		In		90.4		94	2		4												52	*
72		30	6		-	4	0		In		93.2		95	1		4												103	*
71		30	7		-	3	0		In		83.5		93			7												182	*
70		29	7		-	4	0		In		78.5		89	2		9												354	*
69		28	7		-	5	0		In		66.5		83	3	0	14	0											671	*
68		28	8		-	4	0		In		51.6		73	6	0	20	1											1,321	*
67		27	8		-	5	0		In		40.6		65	9	0	25	1											2,299	*
66		27	9		-	4	0		In		25.2		52	12	0	32	4											3,718	*
65		26	9		-	5	0		In		13.8		38	15	1	39	6	0										6,315	*
64		26	10		-	4	0		In		5.9		27	16	2	45	10	0	0									9,766	*
63		25	10		-	5	0		In		2.1		15	17	3	48	16	1										14,804	*
62		25	11		-	4	0		In		0.5		7	15	4	47	25	2	0									21,968	*
61		24	11		-	5	0		In		0.1		3	11	5	42	34	6	0	0								31,276	*
60		24	12		-	4	0		100.0	%	0.0		1	6	5	32	41	13	2	0	0							42,976	*
59		23	12		-	5	0		100.0		No		0	3	5	20	43	24	6	1	0							57,411	*
58		23	13		-	4	0		99.8		No		0	1	3	10	35	34	14	3	0	0						74,212	*
57		22	13		-	5	0		98.4		No		0	0	2	3	21	36	26	9	1	0	0					92,841	*
56		22	14		-	4	0		92.9		No			0	1	1	9	27	34	21	6	1	0	0				113,549	*
55		21	14		-	5	0		78.8		No			0	0	0	3	14	30	31	17	4	1	0	0			134,195	*
54		21	15		-	4	0		55.0		No			0	0	0	0	5	18	32	29	13	3	0	0			153,901	*
53		20	15		-	5	0		29.5		No				0		0	1	7	22	33	25	10	2	0	0		171,831	*
52		19	15		-	6	0		11.6		No				0		0	0	2	10	25	33	22	7	1	0		185,097	*
51		19	16		-	5	0		3.3		No				0		0	0	0	3	14	29	33	17	4	0	0	194,236	*
50		18	16		-	6	0		0.5		No								0	0	4	17	33	31	12	2	0	109,477	*
		19	17		-	4	0		1.0		No				0			0	0	1	6	21	35	27	9	1	0	88,719	*
49		18	17		-	5	0		0.1		No								0	0	1	9	26	37	22	5	0	196,557	*
48		17	17		-	6	0		0.0		No									0	0	3	16	35	33	11	1	190,568	*
47		17	18		-	5	0		Out		No										0	1	7	27	40	21	3	177,090	*
46		16	18		-	6	0		Out		No										0	0	3	17	41	32	7	160,937	*
45		16	19		-	5	0		Out		No										0	0	1	9	35	42	13	143,094	*
44		15	19		-	6	0		Out		No											0	0	4	26	48	21	121,872	*
43		15	20		-	5	0		Out		No											0	0	2	18	49	31	101,843	*
42		15	21		-	4	0		Out		No												0	1	11	46	42	82,336	*
41		14	21		-	5	0		Out		No												0	0	6	41	52	65,031	*
40		14	22		-	4	0		Out		No													0	4	34	63	49,300	*
39		13	22		-	5	0		Out		No													0	2	27	71	36,909	*
38		13	23		-	4	0		Out		No													0	1	21	79	26,157	*
37		12	23		-	5	0		Out		No														0	15	85	18,200	*
36		12	24		-	4	0		Out		No														0	11	89	12,265	*
35		11	24		-	5	0		Out		No														0	7	93	8,049	*
34		11	25		-	4	0		Out		No														0	5	95	5,113	*
33		10	25		-	5	0		Out		No														0	3	97	3,112	*
32		10	26		-	4	0		Out		No															2	98	1,900	*
31		9	26		-	5	0		Out		No															1	99	1,080	*
30		9	27		-	4	0		Out		No															0	100	619	*
29		8	27		-	5	0		Out		No															1	99	322	*
8	-28								Out		No																100	556	*

Total:									25.2	%	0.2	%	1	1	0	3	4	5	6	6	8	9	10	12	13	14	10	2,914,460

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Anaheim 6 Los Angeles 2	+1.0
Columbus 1 Los Angeles 2 (so)	-0.9
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 4 (ot)	-0.0
New Jersey 4 NY Rangers 2	-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Nashville vs Los Angeles	+1.0-0.0+0.0-1.0-1.1-1.2
Columbus vs Calgary	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.0-0.0
Philadelphia vs Florida	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0
Phoenix vs Chicago	-0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.0-0.0
Edmonton vs Dallas	-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

76	-88								100
75		32	5		-	3	0		92						8
74		31	5		-	4	0		100
73		31	6		-	3	0		90	4	2				4
72		30	6		-	4	0		93	2	1				4
71		30	7		-	3	0		84	9					7
70		29	7		-	4	0		79	10	2				9
69		28	7		-	5	0		66	16	3		0		14	0	0
68		28	8		-	4	0		52	21	6	0	0		20	0	1
67		27	8		-	5	0		41	24	8	0	0		24	1	1
66		27	9		-	4	0		25	27	11	1	0		31	1	4
65		26	9		-	5	0		14	25	13	2	1	0	37	2	6	0	0
64		26	10		-	4	0		6	21	12	5	2	0	40	5	10	0	0		0
63		25	10		-	5	0		2	13	10	7	3	0	39	9	16	0	1
62		25	11		-	4	0		1	7	6	8	3	1	32	15	24	1	2	0	0
61		24	11		-	5	0		0	3	3	8	4	1	23	19	30	3	6	0	0		0
60		24	12		-	4	0		0	1	1	5	3	2	12	20	33	8	12	0	2	0	0		0
59		23	12		-	5	0			0	0	3	2	2	4	16	27	16	21	2	6	0	1		0
58		23	13		-	4	0			0	0	1	1	2	1	9	14	21	26	8	13	1	3	0	0	0
57		22	13		-	5	0			0	0	0	0	2	0	3	5	17	20	16	22	4	9	0	1	0	0
56		22	14		-	4	0					0	0	1	0	1	1	8	9	18	23	12	19	2	6	1	0	0	0
55		21	14		-	5	0					0	0	0		0	0	3	2	12	13	18	23	8	15	5	1	0	0
54		21	15		-	4	0					0	0	0		0	0	0	0	4	3	14	16	16	23	15	6	1	0	0	0
53		20	15		-	5	0						0	0				0	0	1	0	6	5	16	18	23	17	8	3	1	0	0	0
52		19	15		-	6	0							0				0		0	0	2	1	9	8	18	24	20	12	5	1	0	0	0
51		19	16		-	5	0							0				0		0	0	0	0	3	2	7	16	23	22	16	8	2	1	0	0
50		18	16		-	6	0															0	0	0	0	1	4	11	20	25	21	12	4	1	0	0
		19	17		-	4	0							0						0		0	0	1	0	2	7	15	23	23	17	8	3	1	0	0
49		18	17		-	5	0															0		0	0	0	1	4	11	20	25	21	12	4	1	0	0	0
48		17	17		-	6	0																	0	0	0	0	1	3	10	19	25	23	13	5	1	0	0
47		17	18		-	5	0																				0	0	1	3	9	19	26	24	13	4	1	0
46		16	18		-	6	0																					0	0	1	3	9	20	28	24	11	3	0
45		16	19		-	5	0																					0	0	0	1	3	11	24	30	22	8	1
44		15	19		-	6	0																						0	0	0	1	5	15	28	30	17	4
43		15	20		-	5	0																							0	0	0	2	8	21	34	27	8
42		15	21		-	4	0																								0	0	0	3	13	31	36	16
41		14	21		-	5	0																									0	0	1	7	25	41	25
40		14	22		-	4	0																										0	0	3	17	41	38
39		13	22		-	5	0																											0	1	11	38	50
38		13	23		-	4	0																										0	0	0	6	32	61
37		12	23		-	5	0																											0	0	3	25	71
36		12	24		-	4	0																												0	2	19	79
35		11	24		-	5	0																													1	13	86
34		11	25		-	4	0																													0	9	91
33		10	25		-	5	0																													0	6	94
32		10	26		-	4	0																													0	4	96
31		9	26		-	5	0																														2	98
30		9	27		-	4	0																														1	99
29		8	27		-	5	0																														1	99
8	-28																																					100

Total:									0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	7	6	6	5