SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances 2013

Beat Buffalo 5-2, playoff odds up 10.3 to 85.5%

14 points 6 2-2 0

Add your own league!

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Ottawa 5 Buffalo 2	+4.3		+1.1		+0.5
Philadelphia 1 Tampa Bay 5	+0.3		+0.1
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 0	+0.2		+0.2
Montreal 3 Ottawa 2 (ot)	*-0.2		-0.4		-0.1
NY Islanders 0 Pittsburgh 5	+0.2
Tampa Bay 5 NY Rangers 3	+0.2
Buffalo 5 Florida 6	*+0.1				+0.1
NY Islanders 2 New Jersey 4	*+0.1
Toronto 4 Boston 2	*+0.1
Toronto 7 Carolina 5	*-0.1		+0.1
Pittsburgh 6 New Jersey 1	*+0.1
Washington 3 Toronto 2 (so)	*-0.1
New Jersey 4 NY Rangers 2	*-0.1
Montreal 4 Buffalo 2					+0.0
Detroit 2 Calgary 5			+0.2
Anaheim 6 Los Angeles 2			-0.1
Calgary 4 Chicago 1			+0.1
St. Louis 2 Nashville 0			+0.1
San Jose 2 Chicago 0			-0.1
Anaheim 6 San Jose 3			*+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Ottawa vs Carolina	+3.1+2.9+2.3-1.1-1.3-5.1		+1.8+1.8+1.3-1.1-1.0-2.9		+0.4+0.4+0.3-0.2-0.2-0.6
Buffalo vs Montreal	-0.1-0.4-0.3+0.2-0.0+0.2		+0.2-0.0+0.1*-0.1-0.3-0.2		+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
NY Rangers vs NY Islanders	+0.2+0.0+0.1-0.3*-0.2-0.1
Philadelphia vs Florida	-0.0-0.1-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.1		+0.1-0.1-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Winnipeg vs Florida	+0.0-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.1+0.1		+0.1-0.1-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Montreal vs Boston	+0.1-0.3-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.0		-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.3		-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1
Winnipeg vs Toronto	+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.1*+0.0
Pittsburgh vs Washington			-0.1-0.2-0.1+0.2*+0.1+0.2
Colorado vs Anaheim			+0.6+0.3*+0.1-0.2-0.4-0.4
Dallas vs Anaheim			+0.6*+0.2+0.3-0.4-0.3-0.4
St. Louis vs Detroit			+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

79	-90								In		99.8	%	100															657	*
78		31	5		-	2	0		In		99.1		100	0														545	*
77		30	5		-	3	0		In		98.9		100			0												1,007	*
76		29	5		-	4	0		In		97.8		100	0														1,749	*
75		29	6		-	3	0		In		97.3		100	0		0												3,528	*
74		28	6		-	4	0		In		95.6		99	0		0												5,828	*
73		28	7		-	3	0		In		92.8		99	1		1												9,663	*
72		27	7		-	4	0		In		88.5		97	2	0	1												15,666	*
71		27	8		-	3	0		In		82.1		95	3	0	2												23,085	*
70		26	8		-	4	0		In		73.8		92	5	0	2												33,438	*
69		26	9		-	3	0		In		64.4		88	8	0	4	0											47,577	*
68		25	9		-	4	0		In		51.7		82	12	0	6	0											63,431	*
67		25	10		-	3	0		In		38.4		73	17	1	9	0											83,014	*
66		24	10		-	4	0		In		25.3		62	23	1	12	0											103,871	*
65		24	11		-	3	0		In		14.5		50	29	3	17	1	0										126,037	*
64		23	11		-	4	0		In		6.9		37	34	5	23	1	0										148,167	*
63		23	12		-	3	0		In		2.5		24	36	9	28	3	0	0									168,331	*
62		22	12		-	4	0		In		0.7		14	33	13	33	7	0	0									76,360
		23	13		-	2	0		In		0.6		14	33	13	33	7	0	0									108,918	*
61		22	13		-	3	0		In		0.1		7	26	17	35	13	2	0	0								198,376	*
60		21	13		-	4	0		100.0	%	0.0		2	18	19	34	22	4	0	0	0							83,716
		20	12		-	6	0		In		0.0		2	18	19	33	22	5	0	0								120,429	*
59		21	14		-	3	0		100.0		No		1	11	20	28	30	10	1	0	0	0						74,242
		20	13		-	5	0		100.0		No		1	9	19	26	31	12	2	0	0							131,039	*
58		20	14		-	4	0		100.0		No		0	5	17	17	33	22	6	1	0							81,109
		19	13		-	6	0		99.9		No		0	4	16	16	33	22	6	1	0	0						117,755	*
57		19	14		-	5	0		99.6		No		0	2	12	8	28	31	15	3	0	0	0					186,760	*
56		19	15		-	4	0		97.6		No		0	0	8	3	16	32	27	11	2	0	0					171,602	*
55		18	15		-	5	0		90.4		No			0	4	1	7	22	33	23	8	1	0	0				152,320	*
54		18	16		-	4	0		72.8		No			0	2	0	2	10	26	33	20	6	1	0	0			130,224	*
53		17	16		-	5	0		47.1		No			0	1	0	0	3	14	29	31	17	4	0	0			109,352	*
52		17	17		-	4	0		22.5		No				0		0	1	5	17	32	29	13	3	0	0		88,752	*
51		16	17		-	5	0		7.9		No				0		0	0	1	7	21	33	26	10	2	0		69,683	*
50		16	18		-	4	0		2.0		No				0		0	0	0	2	10	25	34	22	6	1	0	53,110	*
49		15	18		-	5	0		0.4		No				0				0	0	3	14	31	33	16	3	0	39,744	*
48		15	19		-	4	0		0.1		No								0	0	1	6	21	36	27	9	1	28,743	*
47		15	20		-	3	0		0.0		No				0					0	0	2	11	30	36	18	3	19,960	*
46		14	20		-	4	0		Out		No										0	0	4	20	38	30	7	13,447	*
45		14	21		-	3	0		Out		No											0	2	12	35	38	14	9,014	*
44		13	21		-	4	0		Out		No												0	5	26	45	23	5,680	*
43		13	22		-	3	0		Out		No												0	3	17	44	36	3,485	*
42		12	22		-	4	0		Out		No												0	1	11	41	48	2,149	*
41		12	23		-	3	0		Out		No													0	5	34	60	1,213	*
40		11	23		-	4	0		Out		No														5	29	66	685	*
39		11	24		-	3	0		Out		No														1	23	76	371	*
38		10	24		-	4	0		Out		No														1	14	86	196	*
37		10	25		-	3	0		Out		No															12	88	104	*
36		8	24		-	6	0		Out		No															2	98	46	*
35		8	25		-	5	0		Out		No															20	80	20	*
14	-34								Out		No																100	262	*

Total:									85.5	%	8.1	%	18	13	8	15	11	8	7	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	0	2,914,460

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ottawa 5 Buffalo 2	-0.9
Montreal 3 Ottawa 2 (ot)	+0.1
Buffalo 5 Florida 6	-0.1
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 0	-0.1
Philadelphia 1 Tampa Bay 5	-0.1
Montreal 4 Buffalo 2	-0.0
Toronto 4 Boston 2	-0.0
Toronto 7 Carolina 5	+0.0
Pittsburgh 6 New Jersey 1	-0.0
NY Islanders 2 New Jersey 4	-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Ottawa vs Carolina	-0.8-0.8-0.6+0.3+0.4+1.3
Montreal vs Boston	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.2
Buffalo vs Montreal	-0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

80	-90								100
79		31	4		-	3	0		100	0
78		31	5		-	2	0		99	1	0
77		30	5		-	3	0		99	1					0
76		29	5		-	4	0		98	2	0
75		29	6		-	3	0		97	2	0				0
74		28	6		-	4	0		96	4	0				0
73		28	7		-	3	0		93	6	1				1
72		27	7		-	4	0		88	9	2		0		1
71		27	8		-	3	0		82	13	3	0	0		2
70		26	8		-	4	0		74	19	5	0	0		2	0
69		26	9		-	3	0		64	24	7	0	0		4	0	0
68		25	9		-	4	0		52	30	12	0	0		6	0	0
67		25	10		-	3	0		38	35	17	1	1	0	8	0	0
66		24	10		-	4	0		25	37	21	2	1	0	12	1	0
65		24	11		-	3	0		14	35	24	5	3	0	15	2	1		0
64		23	11		-	4	0		7	30	24	10	5	0	19	4	1	0	0
63		23	12		-	3	0		3	22	21	15	8	0	20	8	3	0	0		0
62		22	12		-	4	0		1	13	14	19	12	1	20	13	7	0	0	0	0
61		22	13		-	3	0		0	6	7	19	14	3	16	19	12	2	2	0	0		0
60		21	13		-	4	0		0	2	3	15	13	6	10	23	17	5	4	0	0	0	0		0
		20	12		-	6	0		0	2	3	15	13	6	10	23	17	5	5	0	0	0	0
59		21	14		-	3	0			1	1	9	10	9	5	22	18	12	10	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
58		20	14		-	4	0			0	0	5	6	10	1	16	13	20	16	5	5	0	1	0	0
		19	13		-	6	0			0	0	4	6	10	1	15	13	21	17	6	6	0	1	0	0	0
57		19	14		-	5	0			0	0	2	3	9	0	8	6	22	17	15	13	3	3	0	0	0	0
56		19	15		-	4	0			0		0	1	6	0	3	1	15	10	22	18	10	10	1	2	0	0	0
55		18	15		-	5	0					0	0	4		1	0	6	3	19	13	20	17	7	8	2	0	0	0
54		18	16		-	4	0					0	0	2		0	0	2	0	10	5	21	16	17	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
53		17	16		-	5	0					0	0	1		0		0	0	3	1	13	7	22	17	18	11	5	2	0	0	0
52		17	17		-	4	0						0	0				0	0	1	0	5	2	15	10	19	21	16	8	3	1	0	0
51		16	17		-	5	0							0				0		0	0	1	0	7	3	10	19	23	20	12	5	1	0	0	0
50		16	18		-	4	0							0				0		0		0	0	2	0	3	8	16	23	23	15	7	2	1	0	0	0
49		15	18		-	5	0							0								0	0	0	0	0	2	6	14	22	24	19	9	3	1	0	0
48		15	19		-	4	0															0		0		0	0	1	5	12	21	25	20	11	3	1	0	0
47		15	20		-	3	0							0										0			0	0	1	4	11	21	26	21	11	3	0	0
46		14	20		-	4	0																					0	0	1	4	11	22	28	22	10	2	0
45		14	21		-	3	0																						0	0	1	4	14	25	29	19	7	1
44		13	21		-	4	0																								0	1	6	16	29	30	15	3
43		13	22		-	3	0																								0	0	2	9	23	33	26	7
42		12	22		-	4	0																									0	1	4	14	33	35	13
41		12	23		-	3	0																										0	2	7	28	39	24
40		11	23		-	4	0																											1	5	22	39	33
39		11	24		-	3	0																											0	3	12	38	47
38		10	24		-	4	0																													6	33	62
37		10	25		-	3	0																												1	5	34	61
36		8	24		-	6	0																													2	17	80
35		8	25		-	5	0																													5	25	70
34		8	26		-	4	0																														10	90
14	-33																																					100

Total:									8	10	7	6	5	3	7	8	5	5	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0