How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 5/5100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Montreal 4 Buffalo 2 +4.8
+1.0
+0.5
Montreal 3 Ottawa 2 (ot)+3.7
+1.3
+0.4
Philadelphia 1 Tampa Bay 5 +0.2
+0.1
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 0 +0.2
+0.1
Toronto 4 Boston 2 +0.2
Ottawa 5 Buffalo 2 +0.1
NY Islanders 2 New Jersey 4 *+0.1
NY Islanders 0 Pittsburgh 5 +0.1
-0.1
Buffalo 5 Florida 6 *+0.1
+0.1
Pittsburgh 6 New Jersey 1 *+0.1
New Jersey 4 NY Rangers 2 *-0.1
-0.1
Toronto 7 Carolina 5 +0.2
Detroit 2 Calgary 5 +0.4
St. Louis 2 Nashville 0 +0.1
San Jose 2 Chicago 0 -0.1
Anaheim 6 San Jose 3 +0.1
Calgary 4 Chicago 1 +0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Montreal vs Boston+3.0+2.7+2.1-1.6-1.4-5.4
+1.7+1.6+1.2-1.1-1.1-3.0
+0.4+0.3+0.3-0.2-0.2-0.7
Buffalo vs Montreal-4.2-0.6-0.4+3.1+3.6+3.8
-2.5-0.6-0.5+1.8+2.4+2.4
-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.4+0.5+0.5
Winnipeg vs Toronto+0.1*-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.5*+0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
Winnipeg vs Florida*-0.0*-0.2-0.3*-0.2*-0.0+0.2
Ottawa vs Carolina+0.2*-0.2-0.2*-0.2-0.3*-0.0
*-0.1*-0.2-0.2*+0.1*-0.2+0.2
-0.0-0.1-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1
NY Rangers vs NY Islanders+0.2*-0.2*+0.1*-0.2*-0.2-0.2
New Jersey vs Tampa Bay-0.1*-0.1*-0.1*+0.0*+0.1+0.1
Philadelphia vs Florida+0.1*+0.1*-0.0*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Dallas vs Anaheim+0.6*+0.2*+0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4
Colorado vs Anaheim+0.6+0.2*+0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4
Pittsburgh vs Washington-0.1-0.2*-0.1*+0.1*+0.0+0.3
Nashville vs Los Angeles*-0.1-0.2*-0.2*+0.0*+0.1+0.2
St. Louis vs Detroit+0.1*-0.0*+0.0*-0.2*-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTTplayoffsTrophy123456789101112131415Count
78-92In99.9%1001,510*
77316-30In99.410001,258*
76306-40In98.3100002,385*
75307-30In97.3100003,952*
74297-40In96.099006,699*
73298-30In93.3991010,619*
72288-40In88.9982116,463*
71289-30In83.59630124,370*
70279-40In75.39340234,747*
692710-30In65.990703047,786*
682610-40In53.4831106064,092*
672510-50In40.2751618082,182*
662511-40In27.165221120103,206*
652411-50In15.7522931600123,737*
642412-40In7.8393352210144,785*
632312-50In2.9263582730164,105*
622313-40In0.91634123260071,596
2212-60In0.815331233700108,815*
612213-50In0.272716351310192,258*
602214-40In0.031919342040078,655
2113-60In0.0319193322400119,626*
592114-50100.0%No11019263112200109,262*
2215-30InNo11219292891090,265*
582115-40100.0No0517193420510076,220
2014-60100.0No0516183421610118,511*
572015-5099.7No02129293114300185,710*
562016-4098.0No008318332610200170,234*
551916-5091.4No04172433227100152,258*
541917-4075.3No020211283219510132,807*
531817-5050.3No100415303015400112,045*
521818-4024.8No000151932281220091,843*
511718-509.2No0001822342591073,557*
501719-402.5No00021127332061057,316*
491619-500.4No0004163231143043,221*
481620-400.1No00172236267131,475*
471520-500.0No00212313616322,817*
461521-400.0No0015213829615,483*
451421-50OutNo021235381310,668*
441422-40OutNo0162645216,900*
431322-50OutNo031845344,407*
421323-40OutNo011142462,747*
411324-30OutNo0637561,595*
401224-40OutNo032967948*
391124-50OutNo12179507*
381125-40OutNo11584262*
371126-30OutNo991158*
361026-40OutNo79386*
351027-30OutNo59541*
34927-40OutNo99111*
12-33OutNo100260*
Total:85.0%8.6%18138151187543321102,914,460

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/5100.0*Lottery seed
Montreal 4 Buffalo 2 -1.0
Montreal 3 Ottawa 2 (ot)-0.8
Buffalo 5 Florida 6 -0.1
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 0 -0.0
Toronto 4 Boston 2 -0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Montreal vs Boston-0.8-0.7-0.5+0.4+0.4+1.4
Buffalo vs Montreal+1.1+0.2+0.1-0.8-1.0-1.0
Ottawa vs Carolina+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.2
Winnipeg vs Toronto-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OTT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
79-92100
78326-201000
77316-309900
76306-4098100
75307-3097200
74297-4096300
73298-3093610
72288-4089921
71289-3084133001
70279-40751840020
692710-306624700300
682610-4053301100500
672510-50403516110800
662511-402738202101110
652411-50163624520152000
642412-4083124950184100
632312-50323211580207300
622313-401141519111201260000
612213-50078191331718111100
602214-400331613611231644000
2113-600331613611231754000
592114-5011910952218121012000
2215-301111119623181181100
582115-400057102171420165501000
572015-500023909623171412230000
562016-400001703116112217991200
551916-500040107320141916672000
541917-40002002111622161615721000
531817-5001000411482217171041000
521818-40000001052171119201472100
511718-50000001073102023191041000
501719-40000021391723221462000
491619-5000000271523241783100
481620-400000261322251993100
471520-50000151222262010300
461521-400001412242820920
451421-5000151426281861
441422-400017173029133
431322-5000292534246
421323-4001416323512
411324-3028274221
401224-4004194532
391124-5001133848
381125-40293357
371126-30123067
361026-4022078
351027-302773
34927-401882
33928-30991
12-32100
Total:9107653785544333322222111110000