SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sometimes I
forget the point

Buffalo Sabres Playoff Chances 2013

Lost to Ottawa 2-5, playoff odds down 13.7 to 45.5%

10 points 5 5-0 0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Buffalo 5 Florida 6	-7.5		-1.3		-0.7
Ottawa 5 Buffalo 2	-6.3		-0.6		-0.6
Montreal 4 Buffalo 2	-4.8		-2.1		-0.6
Montreal 3 Ottawa 2 (ot)	-0.4				-0.1
Philadelphia 1 Tampa Bay 5	+0.3
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 0	+0.2		+0.1
NY Islanders 0 Pittsburgh 5	+0.2
Tampa Bay 5 NY Rangers 3	+0.2
Toronto 4 Boston 2	*+0.1
New Jersey 4 NY Rangers 2	-0.1
NY Islanders 2 New Jersey 4	*+0.1
Pittsburgh 6 New Jersey 1	*+0.1
Washington 3 Toronto 2 (so)	*-0.1
Anaheim 6 Los Angeles 2			-0.1
Detroit 2 Calgary 5			+0.1
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 4 (ot)			*-0.1
Calgary 4 Chicago 1			+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Buffalo vs Montreal	+5.8+5.3+4.6-1.7-2.0-7.7		+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3		+0.5+0.5+0.4-0.2-0.2-0.7
Philadelphia vs Florida	-0.0-0.5-0.6-0.4-0.3+0.4
NY Rangers vs NY Islanders	+0.4-0.2-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.3
Winnipeg vs Florida	+0.0-0.5-0.2-0.4-0.5+0.3
Montreal vs Boston	+0.2-0.2-0.2-0.5-0.5*-0.1
Ottawa vs Carolina	+0.2-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.4*-0.1
Winnipeg vs Toronto	+0.2-0.5-0.3-0.4-0.4*+0.0
New Jersey vs Tampa Bay	+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.5-0.3+0.2
Colorado vs Anaheim			+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
Dallas vs Anaheim			+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season. Explain

													100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	Count

74	-86								In		98.9	%	100															369	*
73		30	5		-	3	0		In		92.4		99			1												197	*
72		29	5		-	4	0		In		91.3		99	0	0	0												366	*
71		29	6		-	3	0		In		84.1		97	1		2												685	*
70		28	6		-	4	0		In		76.1		94	4		2												1,303	*
69		28	7		-	3	0		In		65.6		90	6	0	5												2,305	*
68		27	7		-	4	0		In		53.3		83	9	0	8	0											4,033	*
67		27	8		-	3	0		In		40.5		75	14	0	11	0											6,773	*
66		26	8		-	4	0		In		27.6		64	19	1	15	1											10,707	*
65		26	9		-	3	0		In		16.2		52	24	2	21	1	0										16,548	*
64		25	9		-	4	0		In		7.4		37	28	3	28	3	0										24,605	*
63		24	9		-	5	0		In		3.0		24	29	6	34	6	0	0									35,624	*
62		24	10		-	4	0		In		0.7		14	27	9	38	11	1	0	0								49,270	*
61		23	10		-	5	0		In		0.1		7	21	11	39	19	3	0	0								65,683	*
60		23	11		-	4	0		In		0.0		2	14	12	35	28	7	1	0								84,260	*
59		22	11		-	5	0		100.0	%	0.0		1	7	12	27	36	15	2	0	0							105,408	*
58		22	12		-	4	0		99.9		No		0	3	9	16	36	26	8	1	0	0						127,000	*
57		21	12		-	5	0		99.6		No		0	1	6	8	28	34	18	4	0	0	0					149,350	*
56		21	13		-	4	0		97.5		No			0	4	2	16	33	30	12	2	0	0					169,154	*
55		20	13		-	5	0		88.8		No			0	2	0	5	21	34	26	9	2	0	0	0			103,243	*
		21	14		-	3	0		91.1		No			0	2	1	7	24	34	23	8	1	0	0				81,451	*
54		20	14		-	4	0		73.0		No			0	1	0	2	10	27	34	20	6	1	0	0			196,930	*
53		19	14		-	5	0		47.2		No				0	0	0	3	13	30	32	16	4	0	0			75,946
		20	15		-	3	0		48.0		No				0	0	0	3	14	30	31	16	4	0	0			127,037	*
52		19	15		-	4	0		26.9		No				0	0	0	1	6	20	34	27	11	2	0	0		115,345	*
		18	14		-	6	0		19.7		No				0		0	0	4	16	31	31	15	3	0	0		88,036	*
51		18	15		-	5	0		7.2		No				0			0	1	6	21	34	26	10	2	0	0	123,353	*
		19	16		-	3	0		11.0		No				0		0	0	2	9	26	34	22	7	1	0		74,135	*
50		18	16		-	4	0		2.8		No				0		0	0	0	3	13	30	33	17	4	0	0	104,958	*
		17	15		-	6	0		1.8		No				0			0	0	2	9	26	34	22	6	1	0	81,157	*
49		17	16		-	5	0		0.5		No				0			0	0	0	4	17	33	31	13	2	0	169,042	*
48		17	17		-	4	0		0.1		No				0				0	0	1	8	24	36	24	7	1	150,563	*
47		16	17		-	5	0		0.0		No									0	0	3	14	32	34	15	2	129,636	*
46		16	18		-	4	0		0.0		No									0	0	1	6	24	39	25	5	108,288	*
45		15	18		-	5	0		Out		No										0	0	2	14	36	36	11	87,956	*
44		15	19		-	4	0		Out		No											0	1	7	29	43	19	69,027	*
43		14	19		-	5	0		Out		No											0	0	3	20	46	30	52,682	*
42		14	20		-	4	0		Out		No												0	1	13	44	41	39,137	*
41		13	20		-	5	0		Out		No												0	1	7	39	54	28,127	*
40		13	21		-	4	0		Out		No												0	0	4	31	65	19,541	*
39		12	21		-	5	0		Out		No													0	2	24	74	13,185	*
38		12	22		-	4	0		Out		No													0	1	17	82	8,456	*
37		11	22		-	5	0		Out		No														0	12	88	5,571	*
36		11	23		-	4	0		Out		No														0	8	92	3,321	*
35		10	23		-	5	0		Out		No														0	5	95	2,030	*
34		10	24		-	4	0		Out		No														0	3	97	1,131	*
33		10	25		-	3	0		Out		No															2	98	626	*
32		9	25		-	4	0		Out		No															1	99	361	*
31		9	26		-	3	0		Out		No															1	99	189	*
10	-30								Out		No																100	360	*

Total:									45.5	%	0.6	%	2	3	2	6	7	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	8	6	4	2,914,460

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 5/5	100.0*	Lottery seed
Buffalo 5 Florida 6	+1.5
Ottawa 5 Buffalo 2	+1.2
Montreal 4 Buffalo 2	+1.1
Montreal 3 Ottawa 2 (ot)	+0.1
Washington 4 Pittsburgh 0	-0.0
Philadelphia 3 Carolina 4 (ot)	+0.0
Toronto 4 Boston 2	-0.0
Philadelphia 1 Tampa Bay 5	-0.0
NY Islanders 2 New Jersey 4	-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Buffalo vs Montreal	-1.1-1.0-0.8+0.3+0.4+1.4
Winnipeg vs Florida	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0
Ottawa vs Carolina	+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0
Winnipeg vs Toronto	-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
NY Rangers vs NY Islanders	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Philadelphia vs Florida	-0.0+0.1+0.1*+0.0+0.0-0.0
New Jersey vs Tampa Bay	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1*+0.1-0.0
Montreal vs Boston	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Washington	-0.0+0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:									Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

76	-86								100
75		31	4		-	3	0		91	9
74		30	4		-	4	0		99	1
73		30	5		-	3	0		92	7					1
72		29	5		-	4	0		91	8	0		0		0
71		29	6		-	3	0		84	13	1				2
70		28	6		-	4	0		76	18	3	0			2	0
69		28	7		-	3	0		66	24	5	0	0		5	0
68		27	7		-	4	0		53	30	9	0	0		7	0	0
67		27	8		-	3	0		40	35	13	1	0		10	0	0
66		26	8		-	4	0		28	37	17	2	1		14	1	1
65		26	9		-	3	0		16	36	20	4	2	0	19	2	1	0	0
64		25	9		-	4	0		7	30	20	8	3	0	23	5	3	0	0
63		24	9		-	5	0		3	21	17	12	6	0	25	9	6	0	0		0
62		24	10		-	4	0		1	13	12	15	8	1	24	14	11	1	1	0	0		0
61		23	10		-	5	0		0	6	6	15	9	2	19	20	17	2	3	0	0		0
60		23	11		-	4	0		0	2	2	11	9	4	11	24	22	6	7	0	1	0	0
59		22	11		-	5	0		0	1	1	7	6	5	5	22	22	14	13	1	2	0	0		0
58		22	12		-	4	0			0	0	3	4	6	1	15	15	21	20	6	7	0	1	0	0	0
57		21	12		-	5	0			0	0	1	2	5	0	7	6	22	19	15	15	3	4	0	0	0	0
56		21	13		-	4	0				0	0	1	3	0	2	1	15	11	22	20	10	11	1	2	0	0
55		20	13		-	5	0					0	0	2		1	0	6	3	19	15	20	18	7	8	2	0	0	0
54		20	14		-	4	0					0	0	1		0	0	2	1	11	6	23	17	16	15	7	2	0	0	0
		19	13		-	6	0					0	0	1		0	0	1	0	8	4	20	16	18	18	10	3	1	0	0	0
53		19	14		-	5	0						0	0		0		0	0	2	1	12	8	22	18	19	12	5	1	0	0	0	0
		20	15		-	3	0						0	0		0		0	0	4	1	14	9	23	18	17	9	4	1	0	0	0
52		19	15		-	4	0						0	0		0		0		1	0	5	2	16	11	20	21	15	7	3	1	0	0	0
51		18	15		-	5	0							0				0		0	0	1	0	7	3	11	20	23	19	10	4	1	0	0	0
50		18	16		-	4	0							0				0		0		0	0	3	1	4	10	19	24	21	12	5	1	0	0	0
		17	15		-	6	0							0						0		0	0	2	0	2	8	16	23	23	16	8	2	1	0	0
49		17	16		-	5	0							0						0		0	0	0	0	1	2	7	16	23	23	16	8	2	0	0	0	0
48		17	17		-	4	0							0								0		0	0	0	0	2	6	14	22	25	18	9	3	0	0	0
47		16	17		-	5	0																	0		0	0	0	1	5	13	23	26	19	9	2	0	0
46		16	18		-	4	0																	0			0	0	0	1	5	14	24	27	19	8	2	0
45		15	18		-	5	0																					0	0	0	1	6	15	27	28	17	6	1
44		15	19		-	4	0																							0	0	2	7	19	30	27	13	2
43		14	19		-	5	0																							0	0	0	3	11	25	33	23	6
42		14	20		-	4	0																								0	0	1	5	17	34	32	12
41		13	20		-	5	0																									0	0	2	10	27	40	21
40		13	21		-	4	0																										0	0	5	20	43	32
39		12	21		-	5	0																										0	0	2	13	40	45
38		12	22		-	4	0																											0	1	8	35	57
37		11	22		-	5	0																												0	4	29	67
36		11	23		-	4	0																												0	2	22	76
35		10	23		-	5	0																													1	15	83
34		10	24		-	4	0																													0	11	89
33		10	25		-	3	0																													0	7	93
32		9	25		-	4	0																														6	94
31		9	26		-	3	0																														3	97
10	-30																																					100

Total:									1	1	1	2	1	1	2	4	3	4	4	5	4	5	4	5	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	2	1